Honda Classic: Fowler heads the three-ball bets on day one

Three Ball Bets / Dan Geraghty / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Rickie Fowler has lost none of his style but does his sound game remain?

"Graeme McDowell is based in Orlando and if past results are anything to go by, will certainly find this week's set up and conditions more to his liking than last week in Arizona.

Just as it was looking rosy for Dan Geraghty along came the World Matchplay to wipe out a promising P&L - can he turn it around at this week's Honda Classic? Here are the three musketeers he's hoping can swashbuckle him back into profit

Well, last week was a disaster to say the least and killed the P&L. I console myself slightly in the fact that some of the shrewdest golf punters I know struggled as much as I did.

This week the PGA Tour rolls into Florida for the Honda Classic.

Robert Allenby put in a fine performance in a poor field at last week's Mayakoba Golf Classic but ultimately he may struggle to come to terms with the defeat. Standing on the final tee Allenby had the tournament won but ruined his flawless card with an ugly double bogey to lose out to Korean-American John Huh. On Thursday the Australian is partnered by D A Points and Graeme McDowell [2.6] whose last round here was a 64. The Northern Irishman is based in Orlando and if past results are anything to go by, will certainly find this week's set up and conditions more to his liking than last week in Arizona.

Last week Rickie Fowler [2.3] was narrowly beaten by David Toms but finished so well that I'm happy to take him to beat an out of sorts KT Kim, who hasn't played here before and Boo Weekley who has been struggling with his game for a while now and has not enjoyed the Honda since his playoff defeat in 2007.

Ben Crane's [2.6] stroke average around here reads well (69.13 for eight rounds). Third on his last appearance at the Honda (2009), Crane's first day opponents look highly beatable. Freddie Jacobson has had a very slow start to the year due to torn ligaments in his left thumb - the Swede struggling badly when losing to Robert Karlsson in the first round of the Matchplay last week - and Mr Consistency, Charles Howell III, while a danger, lacks the class of Crane.

Recommended Bets
Graeme McDowell [2.6] - 2 points
Rickie Fowler [2.3] - 2 points
Ben Crane [2.6] - 1 point

Season Profit Loss: -12.02 points

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Honda Classic: Rory can learn from humble Hunter

General / Ralph Ellis / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

McIlroy congratulates Mahan at the Accenture

"McIlroy shares the top of the early market for the Masters with Woods and will be burning to erase the memory of last year’s final day meltdown."

Rory McIlroy's talent has never been in doubt but the Irishman shouldn't take success for granted, says Ralph Ellis ahead of this weekend's Honda Classic.

Between confidence and arrogance there's a very fine line. Believing in yourself is good. In fact for a sportsman it's essential. Go that bit further, however, and danger lurks.

I thought that on Saturday night, listening to Roy Hodgson telling a press conference, after his West Bromwich Albion team had beaten Sunderland, that he didn't need to answer questions about relegation any more. Brave when they are still on just 32 points.

But that was almost humble compared to Rory McIlroy after he'd lost the Accenture Match Play final to Hunter Mahan, and with it the chance to take over as world number one. "Getting to the top of the rankings is hopefully inevitable," he said.

If only life, and sport, was so simple. The talent isn't in doubt: a sublime swing, a feathery touch around the greens, a steady putting stroke. It seems every ingredient of greatness is there. But if he thinks he can just wait for the wins to follow then he and his fans might just be in for a disappointment.

The undeniable fact is that in 37 career PGA Tour starts now, McIlory has just two wins. It means that while you can happily back him at [2.7] for a top five finish for this week's Honda Classic, the [9.4] for him to be the winner is a different matter.

At the moment there's still a soft underbelly to his performances. He showed true grit in knocking out his big rival Lee Westwood, but then didn't have the mental steel to see off Mahan, whose previous biggest claim to worldwide fame was breaking down in tears when he'd lost the crucial last singles at Celtic Manor in the 2010 Ryder Cup.

It may be unkind making comparisons to a young Tiger Woods, but if McIlory believes he should be judged by those sort of standards then it probably has to be done. And I can't remember the early Tiger coming up with anything resembling Rory's seventh and eighth holes against Mahan, when the Irishman made double bogey from the middle of the fairway and then couldn't take advantage of Hunter's three-putt.

McIlroy shares the top of the early market for the Masters with Woods and will doubtless be burning to erase the memory of last year's final day meltdown. But to do that he still has to find what the football people call a "winning mentality." Since his injury scare at the PGA Championship last year he's finished out of the top ten just once in 11 tournaments, but finished first only in an unofficial event in Shanghai and the Hong Kong Open.

Getting to the top might well happen. But until McIlroy finds the mean streak that turns nearly-winning into winning, it's anything but inevitable.

Five things you might not know about Hunter Mahan

1. Born May 1982 in Orange, California, his dad Monte worked undercover in the drug squad for the LAPD. The family moved to Texas when he took early retirement because he'd been beaten up in a fight with a suspect.

2. Hunter's into fashion because mum Cindy was a buyer at the Nordstrom department store in Dallas and used her company discount to buy her son's clothes. When he was ten he had 20 pairs of shoes, all with matching outfits.

3. His wife Kandi (they married last year at Piazza in the Village, Dallas) is a former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader.

4. He teamed up with other golfers Ben Crane, Bubba Watson and Rickie Fowler last year to make a "boy band" pop video for charity. Check it out on YouTube.

5. His hobby is restoring classic cars. He currently drives a 2007 Bentley, but has been working on a 1969 Chevrolet Nova truck to prepare for shows.

Charl Schwartzel, Bill Haas and Nick Watney were three of Paul Krishnamurty's four golfers to watch last year - so who's he gone for this time round?...

Romilly Evans previews coming golfing year, where he expects some forgotten men to restore order to the rankings...

Can Rory make amends and win the Masters? Will this be the year when Woods dominates again? Or will Lefty eclipse them both? Paul Krishnamurty looks ahead to the four Majors of 2012....

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PGA Tour Betting: Will Donald be revved up for the Honda Classic?

Three Against The Field / Dan Geraghty / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Luke Donald is in the mood for another win

"There's so much in Luke Donald's favour that I have to take the plunge, he clearly loves the Honda Classic and must be in a great frame of mind."

Dan Geraghty thinks lucky Luke can double up at the Honda Classic, but who are his other bets? You'll just have to read his Three Against the Field column to find out

The big question this week is can we trust Luke Donald to follow up last week's incredible performance? Donald simply looked different class to everyone, including the machine-like Martin Kaymer in the final.

The Englishman is entitled to be tired after such a long week but we must remember that he didn't see the 18th hole even once all week. The fact that Donald has excellent course form here (second in 2008) and is a winner of this tournament (when it was played on a different course, in 2006) makes him a must bet. There's so much in his favour that I have to take the plunge, he clearly loves the Honda Classic and must be in a great frame of mind.

An excellent short game seems to be the order of the day at the Honda and my second selection is another short-hitting 'plodder' who was in good form last week. Brian Gay finished in the top five in Mexico without ever really contending at the very top of the leaderboard. His game is in good shape and despite no course form to speak of should go well again, his is a similar profile to Donald and his price of [60.0] looks very, very nice to me.

I've mentioned that I'm looking to get Alex Prugh onside this year and at [260.0] this week is an ideal opportunity. Prugh made his debut here last year and finished a good 32nd. Despite missing the cut last time out, it's reasonable to expect him to improve on 2010's performance. The 26-year-old has had a reasonable start to the year with three top-25s from six appearances. He was on fire early on last year and now has that little bit of extra experience on his side.

Dangers: Rickie Fowler [30.0] remains a danger; the win cannot be far off. Y E Yang [50.0] is a course winner here (2009) and his game looked in good shape at the Matchplay, he's a nice price. Last years winner Camilo Villegas has really struggled for form this season, however, [75.0] is surely too big a price this week. He is worth chancing. At times this year Trevor Immelman has looked on the way back and the former Augusta winner should contend at a nice price soon. He's available to back at [150.0] this week.

Recommended Bets:
Luke Donald [16.0], Brian Gay [60.0], Alex Prugh [260.0]

Dan Geraghty thinks lucky Luke can double up at the Honda Classic, but who are his other bets? You'll just have to read his Three Against the Field column to find out...

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The Punter's picks for the Honda Classic

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Y E Yang – A former winner of the Honda and one of the Punter’s picks

“Successful here two years ago and in fair form, Y E Yang’s a really tough competitor and he’ll handle the windy conditions, should they materialise.”

Steve looks forward to this week's sole event...Can he find winner number five in 2011?

After Luke Donald became my fourth pre-event winner of the year last week, following successes with Louis Oosthuizen, Martin Kaymer and Alvaro Quiros, I was keen as mustard to get going with the studying this week but with no Race to Dubai event I've only had the Honda Classic on the US PGA Tour to concentrate on. This is the fifth year in-a-row that the PGA National Champion Course in Palm Beach Florida has been used and now I've got a feel for the place picking fancies wasn't difficult, but getting prices about them was and it's as much a case of who I haven't backed as who I have....

I really should have taken the [60.0] available about Robert Allenby on Sunday but something stopped me. Maybe it's the fact he hasn't won on US soil for ten years, or maybe it was his dreadful lag putting during the final round of the Northern Trust Open. Whatever it was, I can certainly live with not backing him at less than [40.0], even though he lives next door to the course, clearly loves it here and will cope admirably with the strong winds forecast.

Last week's hero, Luke Donald, won this tournament in 2006 before it moved venues, and he was 2nd here in '08, but he'll surely be drained and looks woefully short - though I certainly respect his chances. Lee Westwood and Graeme McDowell both fared well last year but look a little short and the resurgent V J Singh also played well here twelve months ago and looks to be back in the groove, but will his putting hold up if he gets a sniff of victory? Ian Poulter looks attractively priced and he's bound to be keen to get back in the saddle, after being cruelly denied at the death last week by Stewart Cink in round one of his Match Play title defence, but he's not played here since 2007 - when he failed to break 70, so he's been left out too. And of the bigger prices both Spencer Levin and Jimmy Walker are in fine fettle and were close to making the final draft but again - I felt they were a shade short and the wrong side of [100.0]. So that's who's out, now for who's in...

Successful here two years ago and in fair form, my first pick is Y E Yang. He reached the last eight of last week's Match Play after defying the odds three times - most impressively when dumping out Graeme McDowell. He missed the cut at the Northern Trust Open two weeks ago but made the top-10 again in Phoenix the week before. I wouldn't say he's any better than a fair price now but he's a really tough competitor and he'll handle the windy conditions, should they materialise.

Another player that won't mind it blowing is last year's runner-up Anthony Kim, though I recognise I'm taking a big gamble with his wellbeing. He either spat the dummy out against Nick Watney in the first round last week or he was still feeling unwell having withdrawn from the Northern Trust, apparently suffering from flu. There were signs at the Farmers Insurance Open that Kim could finally be over his wrist injury and if he has been poorly for the last few weeks, and if he's now back to full fitness, then [55.0] was a massive price for such a classy player with course form.

Given that we've seen nothing but triple-figure priced winners on the US PGA Tour this year, I'm more than happy to add a couple at big prices. Jason Dufner very nearly broke his duck just a few weeks ago in Phoenix when he produced a much improved in-contention effort - losing to Mark Wilson in a play-off. He appeared to take a little while to work through that disappointment but two weekend rounds in the 60's at Riviera may have done the trick. His 40th placed finish last year isn't too inspiring but the fact that he finished 13th in 2007 and 9th in '09 shows he has an aptitude for the venue. I felt he was worth taking a chance on at such a big price.

Paul Krishnamurty has reasoned the case for my final pick, Stephen Ames, in his Find Me A 100 Winner piece. I was fortunate enough to get a bit matched at [230.0] on the Canadian early on Monday but he's still a belting good price as he ticks an awful lot of boxes. He was one of my picks last year at just [80.0] before he'd even played here. He shot 64 in round two before going on to finish tied 17th 12 months ago and that experience can only help. I fancy he could go really, really well.

Selections:

Y E Yang @ [55.0]
Anthony Kim @ [55.0]
Jason Dufner @ [110.0]
Stephen Ames @ an average of [210.0]

I'll be back on Friday with the Live Golf Blog to survey the scene after round one.

Steve looks forward to this week's sole event...Can he find winner number five in 2011?...

Devastating Donald delivers as Steve finds success at the Matchplay.......

Steve looks forward to an entertaining day one at the Match Play but he's hardly brimming with confidence.......

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