Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Rivals can humble Bow To No One

Timeform Radio Tip / Will Hayler / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

"I understand the attraction, but this small field surely won’t help Bow To No One settle and keep the Flat speed we know he has back for the finish."

Will Hayler provides detailed analysis of the hopes of two Wednesday afternoon runners...

It's 16 years since the exciting Monicasman ran out at the first flight when well fancied for the Sun Alliance Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Perhaps that - and a disagreement with a leading jockey over who would ride the horse - is what caused trainer Alan Jarvis to all but turn his back on the jumps game in the years since, but he sent out his first National Hunt winner since then when Right Step scored recently at Kempton and Bow To No One is a popular choice to give the trainer another victory in the 16:35 at Warwick this afternoon.

However, despite the obvious appeal of being able to back a horse who is a very decent staying handicapper on the Flat off a plater's mark on his handicap debut, I'll be laying him on the win and place markets.

The reason why he failed to sparkle in three starts over hurdles last season is that he pulled too hard at a slower pace and failed to jump as well as his rivals. Unless a pretty remarkable transformation has taken place in the 12 months since, he's going to struggle back over jumps even in a contest where he receives weight from the opposition.

I understand the attraction, but this small field surely won't help Bow To No One to settle and keep the Flat speed we know he has back for the finish.

Only three runners go to post for the 16.45 at Hereford and Gentleman Anshan looks to hold obvious claims of winning the race for the second year running, despite being more than a stone higher in the weights this time.

But even if he does come out on top, Gentleman Anshan is a horse who stays further than this trip and I wonder whether Spanish Cruise and Crannaghmore Boy might have enough speed to make him look vulnerable for a while, particularly around this tight track.

When on song, Spanish Cruise is a very strong traveller and with his stable back to form, I can see him proving popular in the early in-running market moves. It's at that point that I'll be trying to back Gentleman Anshan back.

Recommended Bets
Lay Bow To No One at [2.92] (win) and [1.74] (place) in the 16:35 at Warwick
Lay Gentleman Anshan at [2.12] but back him in-running around [3.5] in the 16:45 at Hereford

Paul Jacobs and Rory Delargy guide you through racing today which features jumps action at Exeter and AW cards at Kempton and Southwell. It's to the Devon venue that Rory goes for his best bets......

Andrew Sheret makes the case for his two Monday afternoon selections at Kempton......

New Timeform Radio signing John O'Connell makes the picks today - will it be a winning debut? We'll find out after the 15:45 at Newton Abbot...

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Honda Classic: Rory can learn from humble Hunter

General / Ralph Ellis / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

McIlroy congratulates Mahan at the Accenture

"McIlroy shares the top of the early market for the Masters with Woods and will be burning to erase the memory of last year’s final day meltdown."

Rory McIlroy's talent has never been in doubt but the Irishman shouldn't take success for granted, says Ralph Ellis ahead of this weekend's Honda Classic.

Between confidence and arrogance there's a very fine line. Believing in yourself is good. In fact for a sportsman it's essential. Go that bit further, however, and danger lurks.

I thought that on Saturday night, listening to Roy Hodgson telling a press conference, after his West Bromwich Albion team had beaten Sunderland, that he didn't need to answer questions about relegation any more. Brave when they are still on just 32 points.

But that was almost humble compared to Rory McIlroy after he'd lost the Accenture Match Play final to Hunter Mahan, and with it the chance to take over as world number one. "Getting to the top of the rankings is hopefully inevitable," he said.

If only life, and sport, was so simple. The talent isn't in doubt: a sublime swing, a feathery touch around the greens, a steady putting stroke. It seems every ingredient of greatness is there. But if he thinks he can just wait for the wins to follow then he and his fans might just be in for a disappointment.

The undeniable fact is that in 37 career PGA Tour starts now, McIlory has just two wins. It means that while you can happily back him at [2.7] for a top five finish for this week's Honda Classic, the [9.4] for him to be the winner is a different matter.

At the moment there's still a soft underbelly to his performances. He showed true grit in knocking out his big rival Lee Westwood, but then didn't have the mental steel to see off Mahan, whose previous biggest claim to worldwide fame was breaking down in tears when he'd lost the crucial last singles at Celtic Manor in the 2010 Ryder Cup.

It may be unkind making comparisons to a young Tiger Woods, but if McIlory believes he should be judged by those sort of standards then it probably has to be done. And I can't remember the early Tiger coming up with anything resembling Rory's seventh and eighth holes against Mahan, when the Irishman made double bogey from the middle of the fairway and then couldn't take advantage of Hunter's three-putt.

McIlroy shares the top of the early market for the Masters with Woods and will doubtless be burning to erase the memory of last year's final day meltdown. But to do that he still has to find what the football people call a "winning mentality." Since his injury scare at the PGA Championship last year he's finished out of the top ten just once in 11 tournaments, but finished first only in an unofficial event in Shanghai and the Hong Kong Open.

Getting to the top might well happen. But until McIlroy finds the mean streak that turns nearly-winning into winning, it's anything but inevitable.

Five things you might not know about Hunter Mahan

1. Born May 1982 in Orange, California, his dad Monte worked undercover in the drug squad for the LAPD. The family moved to Texas when he took early retirement because he'd been beaten up in a fight with a suspect.

2. Hunter's into fashion because mum Cindy was a buyer at the Nordstrom department store in Dallas and used her company discount to buy her son's clothes. When he was ten he had 20 pairs of shoes, all with matching outfits.

3. His wife Kandi (they married last year at Piazza in the Village, Dallas) is a former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader.

4. He teamed up with other golfers Ben Crane, Bubba Watson and Rickie Fowler last year to make a "boy band" pop video for charity. Check it out on YouTube.

5. His hobby is restoring classic cars. He currently drives a 2007 Bentley, but has been working on a 1969 Chevrolet Nova truck to prepare for shows.

Charl Schwartzel, Bill Haas and Nick Watney were three of Paul Krishnamurty's four golfers to watch last year - so who's he gone for this time round?...

Romilly Evans previews coming golfing year, where he expects some forgotten men to restore order to the rankings...

Can Rory make amends and win the Masters? Will this be the year when Woods dominates again? Or will Lefty eclipse them both? Paul Krishnamurty looks ahead to the four Majors of 2012....

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