Against All Odds: PSV 's title hopes to be dented by Roda JC

"The 0-1 loss to Feyenoord ended a run of five unbeaten at Parkstad Limburg Stadion for the club from Kerkrade."

Lay PSV v Roda JC @ 1.422/5 

Title chasing PSV are long odds-on for their trip to Roda JC in the Dutch Eredivisie this morning but Paul Robinson thinks they could suffer a surprise setback.

Roda JC are down in 16th place in the league, which is the final remaining relegation play-off place. This is obviously disappointing for a club who finished 10th last year, but it's quite tight down at the bottom and they are only four points behind PEC Zwolle who are 13th. 

The international break came at a good time for Ruud Brood's men as they had just lost back to back games for the first time since November. In fairness to Roda, both defeats were by a single goal margin and prior to that they hammered Groningen 4-1.

The 0-1 loss to Feyenoord ended a run of five unbeaten at Parkstad Limburg Stadion for the club from Kerkrade. It was also the first time in four that they'd failed to score a goal as before that blank, they had treated their fans to 11 in 360 minutes of home football.

PSV are looking to reclaim the crown that they last won in 2008. They are currently second in the league, just a single point behind leaders Ajax, with a far superior goal difference. They got back to winning ways in their last match by beating RKC Waalwijk 2-0 but they are prone to the odd slip up, as highlighted by the 2-1 defeat at Heerenveen at the beginning of March.

Dick Advocaat's side have struggled on the road of late, and in truth, they haven't been that great away all season for a team in their position. The Peasants have won just six of 13 away from home and they've picked up only one point from a possible nine since the end of January.

A further concern for Advocaat is that Luciano Narsingh remains sidelined through injury and Dries Mertens is suspended, and he's netted 15 goals for PSV this season.

Clearly PSV are the most likely team to win this match and they are the worthy favourites. I just feel their odds of 1.422/5 are just too short though, especially given their recent away form. That's why, at the prices, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay PSV v Roda JC @ 1.422/5 

This match is live on ESPN and Betfair Live Video at 11:30

Wagered: 89 pts
Returned: 83.48 pts
P/L – 5.52 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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The Goalscorer Gamble: Papiss Cisse to dent Wigan's survival hopes

"Michu has been particularly potent against Arsenal this season and looks a decent price at 7.06/1 to score the last goal."

Dan Fitch is back to pick out five goalscorer bets for the weekend and fancies Newcastle's Papiss Cisse to add to his recent tally against a porous Wigan defence.

This tipping lark is difficult enough without the referees disallowing perfectly good goals. 

That's exactly what happened last week with Hibernian's Leigh Griffiths whacked in a free-kick that hit the Hearts crossbar and landed roughly a metre over the line, only for the referee to deem that it wasn't in. 

This silly decision robbed this column of our first goalscorer pick at odds of 4.67/2. As a consequence, I'll only be tipping players this week who I'm sure will score at least two goals, just to give the referees in question some margin for error.

We start with Sunday's Premier League game between Wigan and Newcastle. Wigan have failed to keep a keep a clean sheet at home all season and have conceded 13 goals in their last four home games. 

So it would be a surprise if Newcastle didn't help themselves to a couple of goals against such charitable hosts. The chief goal threat for the Magpies will be Papiss Cisse, who has quietly found some form since the departure of Demba Ba.

Cisse has scored three goals in his last five games, including two 90th minute winners in Newcastle's last two games against Stoke and Anzhi. The odds of 2.915/8 for the Senegalese striker to score at any time is good value and our first pick for the weekend.

For our first goalscorer tip we head to France and can only hope that the referee doesn't scupper our chances this week. The game in question is Paris St Germain's trip to face a St Etienne side who are currently fourth in Ligue 1.

When it comes to picking a goalscorer for PSG, there is only one man and he goes by the name of Zlatan. The Swedish superstar has scored 24 league goals this season, putting him just one behind Cristiano Ronaldo in the European scoring charts.

Despite such feats, Ibrahimovic remains overpriced compared to Ronaldo, who along with Messi, is always an extremely short price in the goalscorer markets. Back Zlatan to score the first goal, with the striker likely to be available at around 4.57/2 when the market gains more liquidity.

If not for an injury, which disrupted his season just when he was at his most potent, Radamel Falcao would be up there with Ibrahimovic and Ronaldo in the goalscoring charts. 

This week Atletico Madrid travel to face an Osasuna side just four points clear of the relegation zone. Atletico now find themselves behind their city rivals Real, having been second for most of the season. 

I fancy Atletico to get back to winning ways this week, after a disappointing home defeat last weekend and a draw the week before that. Falcao is good value at anything over evens, so we'll snap up the 2.05n/a on offer.

We now return to the Premier League for our last goalscorer bet. After the disappointment of going out of the Champions League in midweek, Arsenal must pick themselves up against Swansea, in an effort to qualify for next season's tournament. 

Both Arsenal and Swansea are in poor Premier League form at the moment, but I fancy the Welsh side to up their game, in what should be a fascinating battle of possession-based football.

Michu has been particularly potent against Arsenal this season and looks a decent price at 7.06/1 to score the last goal.

Last but not least we head to Italy for AC Milan's game against Palermo. Milan suffered a thrashing against Barcelona, in a game where they were missing the ineligible Mario Balotelli and the injured Giampaolo Pazzini.

Pazzini is still likely to be out, so expect Balotelli to be selected in the central striker role. At likely odds of around 2.01/1 to score at any time, Super Mario is good value against the Sicilian strugglers, who are currently rock bottom of Serie A.

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Cisse to score at 2.915/8
Back Ibrahimovic to score first at 4.57/2
Back Falcao to score at 2.05n/a
Back Michu to score last at 7.06/1
Back Balotelli to score at 2.01/1

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Open Championship: Will Lytham spell an end to Lee's major hopes going West?

"So while the golfing gods can also be cruel, Westwood is the first to point out that there’s more joy than struggle in the eternal labour of the game he loves."

Romilly Evans asks if Lee Westwood can finally get over the major line in the Open at Royal Lytham...

The philosopher Albert Camus always believed that anticipation was the purest form of pleasure. Better than the memory, better than the deed. In that, while the good things that actually happen to you often disappoint, those that never come to pass become engraved upon your heart with a bittersweet sadness.

Camus even argued that Sisyphus, Greek antiquity's poster boy for a bad day at the office, took satisfaction from his eternal punishment of pushing a boulder up a mountain, only for it to tumble back to the bottom as it reached the peak. The gods of Olympus had intended for Sisyphus to endure eternal frustration. Camus countered that there was joy to be found in this seemingly pointless struggle.

If Camus was right, Lee Westwood must be having the time of his life. After all, The Worksop Wonder has been rolling his boulder up the mountainside of major golf for longer than English golf fans care to remember. A total of 57 majors and counting to be exact. Every time he posts his name near the top of the Sunday leaderboard, down it falls. The near-misses have stacked up like planes approaching Heathrow, with eight top 10 finishes in the last 12 Majors. Westwood simply appears incapable of landing one safely.

Along the way, Westwood has become world number one, a prolific worldwide winner, multi-millionaire, contented family man, even an Officer of the Order of the British Empire. So while the golfing gods can also be cruel, Westwood is the first to point out that there's more joy than struggle in the eternal labour of the game he loves.

Of course, the mountain of public expectation grows ever steeper with the passing years. Especially at Westy's home Open next week, where the crowds will flock to see if their man can finally end his hoodoo in an event no Englishman has won since Nick Faldo triumphed at Muirfield in 1992. However, Westwood's form ahead of the Open suggests they can dare to dream once more.

The 39-year-old has contended wherever he has roamed this season, notching five top-10 finishes in eight events on the PGA Tour and five top-10s in 10 European Tour starts, punctuated by a recent victory at the Nordea Masters. He also reclaimed his Indonesian Masters crown.

As for the all-important majors, it's been a perennial refrain: third at The Masters, then a tie for 10th at the US Open, which looked altogether more promising until he bizarrely lost a ball up a tree in the final round. Even Westwood admitted to suffering from a severe case of the here-we-go-agains.

But as the Open returns to Royal Lytham this year, there is perhaps more reason for him to fend off the mental demons. And not just because this classic Lancashire links doesn't have any trees. Rather, when the Open last visited this corner of Lancashire in 2001, another nearly man of peerless precision with his woods and irons walked off with the Claret Jug. David Duval was that player and the similarities between the two golfers are stark: forever gifted, forever thwarted. Maybe Westwood's time is finally at hand around a course which should reward his accuracy and ball-striking.

Fears over last week's injury scare at the French Open (where he slipped walking over to the first tee) have proven to be unfounded - "the leg is perfectly fine, my fitness guy said I could play again this week if I really wanted to." Which means the only missing link is his old caddie, Billy Foster, who sadly hasn't recovered from his own leg injury to be on the bag this week. That said, the affable Foster will still be at Lytham to cheer on his great friend and despite the mixed emotions, none will be pulling harder.

If Westwood does manage to shake the monkey off his back (and Betfair players make him second favourite at 18.017/1 to back), he may be left feeling as Duval did in the wake of his milestone win. "I just thought it would feel sweeter than this," Double D opined to his caddie soon afterwards.

So maybe Camus was right about the human condition. There can be no joy without the struggle. Still, after all the years of frustration, Westwood's legion of supporters won't mind one bit if they see their man home. The Englishman who went up a hill but came down a mountain a major champion.

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European Grand Prix Betting: Hamilton hopes fade with Red Bull 1-2

Formula One / James Frankland / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sebastian Vettel starts on pole in Valencia

"I expect to see a straight fight between the Red Bull pair but it’s hard to look beyond Vettel for the victory."

The world champion and his team-mate lead on the grid in Valencia and, with a dry race forecast, James Frankland can't see any way back in for the McLarens.

Sebastian Vettel secured his 22nd career pole position in Valencia, the seventh from eight races for the 2010 World Champion. Vettel's teammate Mark Webber made it an all-RB7 front row, lapping just two tenths of a second slower, with perennial second-rowers Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso third and fourth.

The teams went into the weekend with a ban on 'hot-blown' exhausts - where fuel is ignited in the exhaust pipe and fed through the diffuser to generate more downforce - expected to upset the competitive order but, as most things appear to be more or less equal after today's qualifying, we can conclude that the ban has affected each team to about the same degree.

No rain is expected to fall during tomorrow's race so we're unlikely to see a topsy-turvy contest such as the rain-delayed four hour epic that was served up two weeks ago in Canada. With the absence of rain, also gone are the best hopes for the likes of Hamilton, Alonso and their McLaren and Ferrari stablemates to upset the leading duo. I expect to see a straight fight between the Red Bull pair in tomorrow's race but, as ever, it's hard to look beyond Vettel for the victory.

Given the street track nature of the Valencia circuit, there's a high likelihood of the safety car making an appearance, although probably not as often as the five occasions it was seen in Canada. Williams' Pastor Maldonado caused a red flag in qualifying after his car conked out in a tricky spot, so backing the safety car to appear at [1.98] seems a sensible option.

Another stat which came my way recently was that, despite his seven pole positions and five wins this year, Vettel has not set a single fastest lap during any race in 2011. Webber at [1.64] is the favourite for race pace tomorrow - hardly surprising as he occupies the same machinery as Vettel - but Hamilton and [3.25] and Alonso at [4.3] are also worth looking at.

Sauber's Kamui Kobayashi has been a man to watch this year, with bold overtaking moves and good strategy seeing him claw back positions and points. Last year at this race he surprised everyone by running until four laps from the end on the same set of tyres, then switching and gained two places, including overtaking Alonso's Ferrari, on his way to seventh place. The Japanese starts 14th in tomorrow's race and is available at [1.9] for a points finish.

Recommended Bets
Sebastian Vettel to win @ [1.79]
Safety car to appear @ [1.98]
Hamilton to set fastest lap @ [3.25]

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