Formula One 
/ James Frankland / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Sebastian Vettel starts on pole in Valencia
"I expect to see a straight fight between the Red Bull pair but it’s hard to look beyond Vettel for the victory."
The world champion and his team-mate lead on the grid in Valencia and, with a dry race forecast, James Frankland can't see any way back in for the McLarens.
Sebastian Vettel secured his 22nd career pole position in Valencia, the seventh from eight races for the 2010 World Champion. Vettel's teammate Mark Webber made it an all-RB7 front row, lapping just two tenths of a second slower, with perennial second-rowers Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso third and fourth.
The teams went into the weekend with a ban on 'hot-blown' exhausts - where fuel is ignited in the exhaust pipe and fed through the diffuser to generate more downforce - expected to upset the competitive order but, as most things appear to be more or less equal after today's qualifying, we can conclude that the ban has affected each team to about the same degree.
No rain is expected to fall during tomorrow's race so we're unlikely to see a topsy-turvy contest such as the rain-delayed four hour epic that was served up two weeks ago in Canada. With the absence of rain, also gone are the best hopes for the likes of Hamilton, Alonso and their McLaren and Ferrari stablemates to upset the leading duo. I expect to see a straight fight between the Red Bull pair in tomorrow's race but, as ever, it's hard to look beyond Vettel for the victory.
Given the street track nature of the Valencia circuit, there's a high likelihood of the safety car making an appearance, although probably not as often as the five occasions it was seen in Canada. Williams' Pastor Maldonado caused a red flag in qualifying after his car conked out in a tricky spot, so backing the safety car to appear at [1.98] seems a sensible option.
Another stat which came my way recently was that, despite his seven pole positions and five wins this year, Vettel has not set a single fastest lap during any race in 2011. Webber at [1.64] is the favourite for race pace tomorrow - hardly surprising as he occupies the same machinery as Vettel - but Hamilton and [3.25] and Alonso at [4.3] are also worth looking at.
Sauber's Kamui Kobayashi has been a man to watch this year, with bold overtaking moves and good strategy seeing him claw back positions and points. Last year at this race he surprised everyone by running until four laps from the end on the same set of tyres, then switching and gained two places, including overtaking Alonso's Ferrari, on his way to seventh place. The Japanese starts 14th in tomorrow's race and is available at [1.9] for a points finish.
Recommended Bets
Sebastian Vettel to win @ [1.79]
Safety car to appear @ [1.98]
Hamilton to set fastest lap @ [3.25]
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