The Goalscorer Gamble: Mandzukic will be main man at Atletico Madrid

"Last season Britt Assombalonga scored 33 goals in 58 games for Posh, earning the 21-year old a £5m move to Forest."

Back Assombalonga at 2.767/4 to find the net.

Dan Fitch is back with five more goalscorer tips and is expecting Mario Mandzukic to further endear himself to the Atletico Madrid faithful...

Last week's Goalscorer Gamble picks only produced one winner, but at least that man - the Norwich City striker strong>Lewis Grabban - had the good grace to be priced at a juicy 3.02/1. If he carries on scoring at his current rate, then such odds - much like this glorious summer - will soon be nothing more than a distant memory.

We might be saying the same thing about Wilfried Bony before the season ends. He failed to produce the goods when we backed him last week, but with 12 Premier League goals in 2014 - only Daniel Sturridge (13) has scored more - he's still far too big a price.

Bony and his Swansea teammates take on a West Brom side who have drawn all three of their games so far and look set for another difficult season. Back Bony at 2.9215/8 to start making life more difficult today.

A striker who has already made an impact this season is Tottenham's Emmanuel Adebayor. He scored one and made another in last weekend's 4-0 demolition of QPR and looked like the sharp version of Adebayor, rather than the uninterested, lazy one that sometimes rears its head.

On Sunday, Spurs host Liverpool. The visitors will surely give Tottenham more of a challenge than Harry Redknapp's hopeless QPR side mustered, yet they are likely to concede goals in the process. 

In their two opening games, Liverpool have already shipped four goals and it might prove to be another season in which they have to rely upon outscoring the opposition, rather than clean sheets. With Spurs flying after four straight wins, take a chance on Adebayor to score the first goal at 7.5n/a.

After the success of our bet on Grabban last weekend, it makes sense to search for more value in the Championship. The only man to have scored more goals than Grabban in that division is Nottingham Forest's Britt Assombalonga, who has grabbed four in four games as Forest quickly moved to the top of the league.

Having come through the youth ranks at Watford, Assombalonga has scored goals wherever he's gone - first in non-league in loan spells at Wealdstone and Braintree, before proving himself in the professional game with Southend and Peterborough.

Last season he scored 33 goals in 58 games for Posh, earning the 21-year old a £5m move to Forest. So far, he's looked worth the expenditure and could pay off another portion of the fee when his side travel to Sheffield Wednesday today. Like Forest, Wednesday are unbeaten this season, but have conceded in their last two league games. Back Assombalonga at 2.767/4 to find the net.

Another striker producing the goods in a league that is now well underway, is PSV's Memphis Depay. His PSV Eindhoven side lead the Eredivisie after three games, scoring 12 goals in the process.

Depay has scored five of those goals to lead the Dutch scoring charts. He was on target again in midweek, scoring two late goals to send PSV into the group stages of the Europa League and take his total tally to eight in eight games. This weekend PSV host a Vitesse side without a win and currently in the relegation zone. Put faith in Depay to get PSV off the mark at likely odds of 5.59/2.

Another potential lamb to the slaughter, are newly promoted Eibar who this weekend travel to reigning La Liga champions Atletico Madrid. Diego Simeone's side have lost Diego Costa this summer, but look to have replaced him well.

Mario Mandzukic has already endeared himself to the Atletico faithful by scoring the winning goal against Real Madrid in the Super Cup. Mandzukic scored a total of 48 goals in his 88 games for Bayern Munich, which is an impressive statistic for a player that was always in and out of the starting lineup.  

At Atletico, Mandzukic will be the main man and against lowly opposition this weekend, back him to take advantage at a probable price of 1.910/11.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Mandzukic to score at 1.910/11
Back Bony to score at 2.9215/8
Back Adebayor to score first at 7.5n/a
Back Assombalonga to score at 2.767/4
Back Depay to score first at 5.59/2

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Lee Dixon: Gunners gamble should pay off with a defeat of United

"From my experience it is an entirely human reaction to take your foot off the gas and relax a bit after winning the league. We went to Liverpool for a midweek match after winning the title in 1998 and were spanked 4-0! All of a sudden the knocks and fatigue were harder to ignore and the mind drifted to the beach that summer."

Back Arsenal to win @ 2.285/4

Manchester United wrapped up the Premier League title on Monday night and punters have been rushing to back top four-chasing Arsenal to win on Sunday afternoon. Lee Dixon is joining them...

There's been a bit of a gamble on Arsenal to win this game since Manchester United secured yet another Premier League title on Monday night - and I think those backers might be on to something.
The thinking behind the bet is that United will have a lost a little of their edge since achieving their last remaining major goal of the season. 

From my experience it is an entirely human reaction to take your foot off the gas and relax a bit after winning the league. We went to Liverpool for a midweek match after winning the title in 1998 and were spanked 4-0! Yes, we had enjoyed a celebration or two, but it wasn't just that. All of a sudden the knocks and fatigue were harder to ignore and the mind drifted to the beach that summer. We lost to Aston Villa in the next match before rounding out the season with a win over Newcastle. 

United, of course, are chasing Chelsea's record points haul of 95, achieved in 2004/05, but that may not be such a strong motivator as winning a league title. We'll see. 

Sir Alex may switch the personnel around in a bid to keep his team fresh and playing at a high level but one man who I think we will see is Monday night's hat-trick hero, Robin van Persie. The Dutch ace will relish going back to his old club and I suspect Fergie will play him if that is the case.

It would be nice to think he'll get a good reception from the Arsenal faithful after more than eight years of service in the shirt, but there are a lot of bitter people in the stands because he left and, worse still, went to United.  

For me, the way to go about it would be to give him a round of applause and then get on with supporting your own team because a win in this match would go a long way to securing Champions League football next year. With all due respect to the Gunners' opponents after this game - QPR, Wigan and Newcastle - they don't make the most intimidating fixture list. 

Arsenal have done the hard work in the last few months, putting together a very strong run of results to sit in third place ahead of this game. They are in good form, score plenty at home and need the points more than United. A fast start is essential on Sunday afternoon. If United's minds aren't focused, Arsenal could soon hold a lead and the extra desire should take them to a big win. 

They'll have to do that without Oliver Giroud, who is suspended until the last game of the season, and I expect to see Theo Walcott upfront. His pace is a huge danger to United and I fancy Theo will grab his chance to stake a claim for the forward role on a permanent basis. 

His skills should contribute to an entertaining encounter and it's not hard to envisage the over 2.5 goal barrier will be breached. 

Recommended Bets 
Back Arsenal to win @ 2.285/4
Back Walcott to score @ 2.915/8 
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5 

As Lee says, as soon as the goals started going in on Monday night, Manchester United began to drift in the match odds. In my opinion there's no value backing Arsenal to win this one. Under normal circumstances, I would have Arsenal about 2.8 to win this game but they are currently 2.28. I can’t back them BUT can understand why people will.

Arsenal are yet to beat a side in the top four home or away this season - their 5-2 win against Tottenham is their only victory against a top six side! However, in seven games against the current top six, five have seen over 2.5 goals and six have seen both teams scoring. I will be looking at the correct score and overs markets - having a saver on 1-1 @ 8.0 before the game starts and then getting on over 2.5 goals IF it reaches 2.1 in running.

I fully agree with Lee – it feels like Manchester United have a habit of switching off once the league title has been secured. I also think there's a chance Arsenal might benefit from the possible absence of Robin van Persie. I’m not sure he’ll want to rub his title success in the faces of Arsenal fans, and Luis Suarez’s suspension means he’s got the Golden Boot wrapped up thanks to his hat-trick at Villa Park.

Arsenal’s defence has improved significantly since Thomas Vermaelen was dropped following the horror show at White Hart Lane, and after three clean sheets in their previous six games, 3.8 is a decent price for another against a half-hearted United.

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The Goalscorer Gamble: Papiss Cisse to dent Wigan's survival hopes

"Michu has been particularly potent against Arsenal this season and looks a decent price at 7.06/1 to score the last goal."

Dan Fitch is back to pick out five goalscorer bets for the weekend and fancies Newcastle's Papiss Cisse to add to his recent tally against a porous Wigan defence.

This tipping lark is difficult enough without the referees disallowing perfectly good goals. 

That's exactly what happened last week with Hibernian's Leigh Griffiths whacked in a free-kick that hit the Hearts crossbar and landed roughly a metre over the line, only for the referee to deem that it wasn't in. 

This silly decision robbed this column of our first goalscorer pick at odds of 4.67/2. As a consequence, I'll only be tipping players this week who I'm sure will score at least two goals, just to give the referees in question some margin for error.

We start with Sunday's Premier League game between Wigan and Newcastle. Wigan have failed to keep a keep a clean sheet at home all season and have conceded 13 goals in their last four home games. 

So it would be a surprise if Newcastle didn't help themselves to a couple of goals against such charitable hosts. The chief goal threat for the Magpies will be Papiss Cisse, who has quietly found some form since the departure of Demba Ba.

Cisse has scored three goals in his last five games, including two 90th minute winners in Newcastle's last two games against Stoke and Anzhi. The odds of 2.915/8 for the Senegalese striker to score at any time is good value and our first pick for the weekend.

For our first goalscorer tip we head to France and can only hope that the referee doesn't scupper our chances this week. The game in question is Paris St Germain's trip to face a St Etienne side who are currently fourth in Ligue 1.

When it comes to picking a goalscorer for PSG, there is only one man and he goes by the name of Zlatan. The Swedish superstar has scored 24 league goals this season, putting him just one behind Cristiano Ronaldo in the European scoring charts.

Despite such feats, Ibrahimovic remains overpriced compared to Ronaldo, who along with Messi, is always an extremely short price in the goalscorer markets. Back Zlatan to score the first goal, with the striker likely to be available at around 4.57/2 when the market gains more liquidity.

If not for an injury, which disrupted his season just when he was at his most potent, Radamel Falcao would be up there with Ibrahimovic and Ronaldo in the goalscoring charts. 

This week Atletico Madrid travel to face an Osasuna side just four points clear of the relegation zone. Atletico now find themselves behind their city rivals Real, having been second for most of the season. 

I fancy Atletico to get back to winning ways this week, after a disappointing home defeat last weekend and a draw the week before that. Falcao is good value at anything over evens, so we'll snap up the 2.05n/a on offer.

We now return to the Premier League for our last goalscorer bet. After the disappointment of going out of the Champions League in midweek, Arsenal must pick themselves up against Swansea, in an effort to qualify for next season's tournament. 

Both Arsenal and Swansea are in poor Premier League form at the moment, but I fancy the Welsh side to up their game, in what should be a fascinating battle of possession-based football.

Michu has been particularly potent against Arsenal this season and looks a decent price at 7.06/1 to score the last goal.

Last but not least we head to Italy for AC Milan's game against Palermo. Milan suffered a thrashing against Barcelona, in a game where they were missing the ineligible Mario Balotelli and the injured Giampaolo Pazzini.

Pazzini is still likely to be out, so expect Balotelli to be selected in the central striker role. At likely odds of around 2.01/1 to score at any time, Super Mario is good value against the Sicilian strugglers, who are currently rock bottom of Serie A.

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Cisse to score at 2.915/8
Back Ibrahimovic to score first at 4.57/2
Back Falcao to score at 2.05n/a
Back Michu to score last at 7.06/1
Back Balotelli to score at 2.01/1

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Follow The Money: Blanche gamble to prove punters white

Recommended Bets

Back I’m Back @ 5.59/2 13:50 York
Back Blanche Dubawi @ 5.79/2 14:55 York
Lay Jewellery @ 5.39/2 15:40 Fontwell

Today's Follow The Money movers come from York and Fontwell.

We start up on the Knavesmire and in the first race of the day the 13:50 7f Nursery Godolphin's I'm Back is now favourite. An earlier high of 7.26/1 Darren Egan's mount is now 5.59/2. He won his maiden first time out at Windsor, had a disappointing effort next up but put that behind him with his latest effort; a Nursery win at Newmarket. He has gone up 2lbs since then but Egan takes off 5lbs and the money suggests he has another win in him.

Staying at York in the 14:55 6f Listed Stakes there has been a big gamble for Hayley Turner's ride Blanche Dubawi. Initially trading at 12.011/1 and bigger Noel Quinlan's filly is second favourite at 5.79/2. After most of the season off she should be sharper following her sixth of eight at Newmarket two weeks ago and today conditions certainly suit. She ended last season well and the money suggests they expect her to do the same again this year.

Finally we're at Fontwell where we find today's lay in the 15:40 2m4f Mares Handicap Hurdle. Point to point winner Jewellery is a maiden under Rules following three unsuccessful attempts, her latest a disappointing sixth at Newton Abbot. Victor Dartnell now has the horse and although he's known to be able to change the fortune of similar horses Betfair punters aren't so sure. An early low of 3.7511/4 would have seen her favourite however at 5.39/2 the money suggests that this is one to go against.

Recommended Bets

Back I'm Back @ 5.59/2 13:50 York
Back Blanche Dubawi @ 5.79/2 14:55 York
Lay Jewellery @ 5.39/2 15:40 Fontwell

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Follow The Money: Gamble ahoy at Newton Abbot!

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can our first bet score over hurdles at Newton Abbot?

"She's On The Case has been backed dramatically into [10.0] from [25.0] in Newton Abbot’s 13:45 2m6f Handicap Chase."

Today's Follow The Money Movers come from the meetings at Newton Abbot and Carlisle.

Starting in Devon where She's On The Case has been backed dramatically into [10.0] from [25.0] in Newton Abbot's 13:45 2m6f Handicap Chase.
Grant Cann's seven-year-old mare is not the most consistent these days, but has slipped to a potentially attractive mark after some indifferent recent performances. Having run in hurdles and chases last year rated over 100 she gets in here off on just 85 and acts on all surfaces so the money behind her may be significant. A sudden return to her old form cannot be ruled out.

Later on the same card Golden Chieftain has drifted alarmingly in the betting out to [2.72] from an earlier [2.2] for the 3m2f Novice Chase at 15:15.
Colin Tizzard's 7yo has looked a fair recruit to the chasing ranks and enjoyed a bloodless victory last time at Wincanton but in truth he had little to beat that day. The form of his Ffos Las third behind Teaforthree now looks stronger after that one scored at the Cheltenham Festival but there has to be some doubt whether he can give lumps of weight away to three capable rivals, over the longest trip he has tackled so far. A lacklustre display at Warwick when never travelling is also still fresh enough in the memory and therefore at the prices he could be best opposed.

Finally up to Carlisle for their 15:30 2m4f Handicap Hurdle in which Hada Men has been strongly supported into [4.2] from [6.8]. The gelding has done well this year since switching to Brian Ellison's yard, racking up a hat-trick on the all-weather during January before shaping with promise in two novice hurdles. Having just qualified for a mark he looks an interesting contender now in handicap company and stepped up in trip, having kept on well at the end of both previous runs over hurdles. Aidan Coleman is an eye-catching booking in the saddle so this looks one to keep the right side of today.

Recommended Bets
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105174293&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105174299&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105174159&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Kempton, Uttoxeter and Ffos Las....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Cheltenham and Lingfield....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Cheltenham, Towcester and Hexham....

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Follow The Money: Gamble on the King

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Two backs and one lay are as ever the Follow The Money approach.

Today's movers come from the meetings at Carlisle and Wolverhampton

On the face of it Brixen would appear to have a strong chance of success in Carlisle's novice chase at 14.30. She jumps very well for a novice and hasn't done too much wrong in two attempts at chasing, following her second at Exeter with a fourth last time out at Newbury. The market, [2.44] from [2.28], hints that there might be some mileage in taking her on, and that is probably based on the fact that she tired close home over this distance (after racing a touch keenly) at flat Newbury, whereas the long, gruelling finish at Carlisle should expose any stamina deficiency...even against weak opposition.

For our first back we're staying at Carlisle and putting faith in the ultra-reliable and improving Do It For Dalkey in the 15.40. This son of Silver Patriarch has an enviable record at this track with form figures of 1P11 with his last two wins here both by wide margins. His recent hike in the weights didn't prevent an excellent second in a class 2 last time out at Sandown so the market move [5.48] in to [4.5] suggests that the upward curve can continue today.

Lastly we go to Wolverhampton's 16.25 and an inmate of a stable that is not averse to the odd gamble, that of Michael Wigham. He saddles an interesting runner here in the shape of Aegean King, a Falbrav gelding making his first start in 520 days. Running off 10lbs lower than when last seen on the sand and with a market move [6.0] in to [4.7] in his favour, he might be worth keeping an eye on, but only if the gamble continues until the off.

Recommended Bets

Lay Brixen @ [2.44] Carlisle 14.30
Back Do It For Dalkey @ [4.5] Carlisle 15.40
Back Aegean King @ [4.7] Wolverhampton 16.25

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Ffos Las and Market Rasen....

Today's Follow the Money comes from Ascot and Lingfield......

Today's Follow The Money comes from Newbury and Fakenham....

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