Premier League: Newcastle should stay loyal to Pardew

"While Pardew is far from beyond criticism for the Magpies' miserable league campaign, certain circumstances out of his control have contributed heavily to it."

After a humiliating 6-0 defeat to Liverpool, the knives are out for Alan Pardew but this is no time to give up on their boss writes Christian Crowther...

Newcastle's second embarrassing home defeat on the spin, in which they were smashed for six by Liverpool, has seen the Toon dip their toe into Premier League relegation quicksand.

However, although the Magpies are now back in danger of the plunge - rated at 12.011/1 to go down - owner Mike Ashley should not be tempted into a reactionary squeeze on the trigger.

The man he would be firing, Alan Pardew, signed an eight-year contract off the back of Newcastle's best finish in the Premier League since 2003/04 last campaign, so it would make owner and club the laughing stock should he cast his man aside now.

It's no coincidence that Newcastle's wildly differing fortunes over recent years have been underpinned by one of the hottest managerial seats in the land.

Inadvertently, Pardew's biggest mistake at Newcastle so far was probably leading the Toon to that fifth-place finish last season. This highly commendable achievement has actually ended up causing Pardew a painful headache.

He's not only raised the bar of expectation to an unsustainable height, but with such a tight squad at his disposal, their resulting Europa League commitments have stretched things to breaking point.

While Pardew is far from beyond criticism for the Magpies' miserable league campaign, certain circumstances out of his control have contributed heavily to it.

For a start, his squad has been ravaged by injury since the very beginning of this campaign, especially in those vital defensive positions.

Ryan Taylor, Tim Krul, Fabricio Coloccini, James Perch, Mike Williamson, Danny Simpson and latterly David Santon have all missed many games due to injury.

Meanwhile, two of their most creative talents in French duo Yohan Cabaye and Hatem Ben Arfa were sidelined for lengthy spells, adding to the inconsistency of team selection.

Although Pardew targeted certain players in the summer, it wasn't until January - after the gruelling group stages of the Europa League had already taken place and ground had been lost in the Premier League - that he was able to capture the likes of Mathieu Debuchy.

He was also helpless in losing his top scorer Demba Ba to Chelsea in the same month and, while Papiss Cisse has notched a few latterly, Ba's compatriot is nothing like as reliable a source of goals.

For a while, the influx of French talent in January looked like it would turn the Toon's season around but they have since dropped off, something Pardew must shoulder some blame for.

Still, it would be foolish to sack the man who bought all these players to the club. Pardew must be backed not sacked and, if they stay up by the skin of their teeth, then next season should be much better for Newcastle.

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Lee Dixon: Gunners gamble should pay off with a defeat of United

"From my experience it is an entirely human reaction to take your foot off the gas and relax a bit after winning the league. We went to Liverpool for a midweek match after winning the title in 1998 and were spanked 4-0! All of a sudden the knocks and fatigue were harder to ignore and the mind drifted to the beach that summer."

Back Arsenal to win @ 2.285/4

Manchester United wrapped up the Premier League title on Monday night and punters have been rushing to back top four-chasing Arsenal to win on Sunday afternoon. Lee Dixon is joining them...

There's been a bit of a gamble on Arsenal to win this game since Manchester United secured yet another Premier League title on Monday night - and I think those backers might be on to something.
The thinking behind the bet is that United will have a lost a little of their edge since achieving their last remaining major goal of the season. 

From my experience it is an entirely human reaction to take your foot off the gas and relax a bit after winning the league. We went to Liverpool for a midweek match after winning the title in 1998 and were spanked 4-0! Yes, we had enjoyed a celebration or two, but it wasn't just that. All of a sudden the knocks and fatigue were harder to ignore and the mind drifted to the beach that summer. We lost to Aston Villa in the next match before rounding out the season with a win over Newcastle. 

United, of course, are chasing Chelsea's record points haul of 95, achieved in 2004/05, but that may not be such a strong motivator as winning a league title. We'll see. 

Sir Alex may switch the personnel around in a bid to keep his team fresh and playing at a high level but one man who I think we will see is Monday night's hat-trick hero, Robin van Persie. The Dutch ace will relish going back to his old club and I suspect Fergie will play him if that is the case.

It would be nice to think he'll get a good reception from the Arsenal faithful after more than eight years of service in the shirt, but there are a lot of bitter people in the stands because he left and, worse still, went to United.  

For me, the way to go about it would be to give him a round of applause and then get on with supporting your own team because a win in this match would go a long way to securing Champions League football next year. With all due respect to the Gunners' opponents after this game - QPR, Wigan and Newcastle - they don't make the most intimidating fixture list. 

Arsenal have done the hard work in the last few months, putting together a very strong run of results to sit in third place ahead of this game. They are in good form, score plenty at home and need the points more than United. A fast start is essential on Sunday afternoon. If United's minds aren't focused, Arsenal could soon hold a lead and the extra desire should take them to a big win. 

They'll have to do that without Oliver Giroud, who is suspended until the last game of the season, and I expect to see Theo Walcott upfront. His pace is a huge danger to United and I fancy Theo will grab his chance to stake a claim for the forward role on a permanent basis. 

His skills should contribute to an entertaining encounter and it's not hard to envisage the over 2.5 goal barrier will be breached. 

Recommended Bets 
Back Arsenal to win @ 2.285/4
Back Walcott to score @ 2.915/8 
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5 

As Lee says, as soon as the goals started going in on Monday night, Manchester United began to drift in the match odds. In my opinion there's no value backing Arsenal to win this one. Under normal circumstances, I would have Arsenal about 2.8 to win this game but they are currently 2.28. I can’t back them BUT can understand why people will.

Arsenal are yet to beat a side in the top four home or away this season - their 5-2 win against Tottenham is their only victory against a top six side! However, in seven games against the current top six, five have seen over 2.5 goals and six have seen both teams scoring. I will be looking at the correct score and overs markets - having a saver on 1-1 @ 8.0 before the game starts and then getting on over 2.5 goals IF it reaches 2.1 in running.

I fully agree with Lee – it feels like Manchester United have a habit of switching off once the league title has been secured. I also think there's a chance Arsenal might benefit from the possible absence of Robin van Persie. I’m not sure he’ll want to rub his title success in the faces of Arsenal fans, and Luis Suarez’s suspension means he’s got the Golden Boot wrapped up thanks to his hat-trick at Villa Park.

Arsenal’s defence has improved significantly since Thomas Vermaelen was dropped following the horror show at White Hart Lane, and after three clean sheets in their previous six games, 3.8 is a decent price for another against a half-hearted United.

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Champions League Betting: Should Wembley already be preparing for a German party?

Following a sensational week of Champions League football, Callum Davis looks at the fallout from the first legs of the semi-inals and casts an eye over the odds for the eventual winner of the tournament.

In a Champions League week which few football fans would have foreseen, Real Madrid and Barcelona find themselves facing the exit door after two resounding defeats to German opponents. The combined score from the two ties stands at 8-1 to Germany on aggregate, and the prospect of an all-German final looks the most likely outcome. Surely there's no way back for either of the Spanish sides?

Barcelona look to be all but out of the running for the final, and although they have a team of world beaters with the potential to perform miracles, the task looks too difficult given the lacklustre form of Lionel Messi and the quality of their opponents.

Bayern have been described as the most in-form side in Europe this season and Barca's inability to create any meaningful chances in the Allianz Arena will not have done anything to persuade punters that they should be backing them to qualify at the price of 2322/1.

In contrast, Real Madrid's away goal gives them the faintest of hopes of being able to overturn their 3 goal deficit and progress through to the final. Madrid are 1.594/7 to win on the night but it will take more than mere victory to ensure that the reigning Spanish champions progress to Wembley, and they are priced out at 12.5n/a to go on and win the final.

With Madrid's firepower up front, featuring the tournament's top goalscorer, Cristiano Ronaldo, the issue will not be whether they are able to score the goals required, but more whether they will be able to stop Dortmund, and Lewandowski in particular, from adding to the aggregate score and putting the tie to bed. You can back Madrid to qualify for the final at odds of 5.85/1.

An all-German final is now priced at 1.241/4 after both sides registered such resounding victories with the superior performances to boot. Bayern are currently favourites to win Europe's biggest prize at 1.715/7 while Dortmund are currently trading at 3.1511/5. Despite the fact that Bayern have run away with the Bundesliga this season, I'd expect an all-German final to be much more closely contested than the current odds suggest. 

Bayern have the edge on Dortmund in their head-to-head record this season with two wins and one draw in league and cup competitions. Saying that, all three of the previous match ups took place in the Allianz Arena so a prospective clash at Wembley may not necessarily adhere to the form guide. 

Dortmund's dominant display against Madrid was arguably more impressive than Bayern's the previous evening, with Graeme Souness lauding the game as the greatest single Champions League showing he has ever witnessed. The Dortmund team have a youthful energy and abundance of pace which the older legs of Bayern will surely be wary of. If any team will be able to match Bayern Munich's work ethic and tenacity it will be Jurgen Klopp's Dortmund side and I will be having a punt on them to win the Champions League at 3.1511/5.

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England: Rio is out of qualifiers but should go to Brazil

"There is no doubt that Ferdinand has been the standout English defender in the Premier League for his club this season, and his attempted recall was no surprise at all."

Rio Ferdinand won't play this week after all, but the decision to reinstate the forgotten man had to happen, suggests Christian Crowther...

England could probably get away with playing Jermain Defoe and Daniel Sturridge at centre back against San Marino and still win on Friday. The Three Lions can be found at 1.011/100 to claim three points from Friday's visit.

However, while Roy Hodgson probably won't opt for this pairing despite the apparent ease of task, the manager's U-turn on Rio Ferdinand - who has since withdrawn alongside Michael Dawson to be replaced by Joleon Lescott and Steven Caulker - begs the question of just who his preferred partnership for these qualifiers is?

And not just for these qualifiers but looking ahead to Brazil 2014?

Despite performing at a consistently high level for Spurs in recent seasons, Dawson's injury-blighted career has ensured his impact on the international scene has been limited to a skimpy tally of four caps.

There is no doubt that Ferdinand has been the standout English defender in the Premier League for his club this season, and his attempted recall was no surprise at all.

In fact, it's a real necessity rather than a regression. Since John Terry's retirement, Hodgson has used five other players for England in Rio's position and two of them are doubts for these vital qualifiers.

Everton's Phil Jagielka, who started both post-Terry qualifiers, will definitely miss the upcoming games, while there are question marks over Gary Cahill's fitness after picking up a knee injury against West Ham, though he did finish the match.

Youngsters Chris Smalling and Steven Caulker have both earned involvement in recent friendlies, though Smalling has mainly filled in at right back for Manchester United this term, whereas Caulker was pencilled in for the Under-21s until Ferdinand's withdrawal.

This leaves Joleon Lescott as the only other viable alternative, though the fact that the out-of-favour Manchester City player was brought in as a replacement for Dawson indicates that he's fallen out of Hodgson's thoughts as well as Roberto Mancini's.

Despite his age of 34, Ferdinand is still England's best defender and, if he continues to play at the same level next season, he has to be included in the World Cup party should England qualify.

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Wayne Mardle: England should beat Japan in Quarter Finals but Belgium are the real threat

"Finland v Germany will be close, but I can see Jani Haavisto being the deciding factor.

Back Finland to beat Germany at 2.01/1

Wayne Mardle predicts an easy win for England against Japan, but thinks Belgium are the pair to look out for.

Well, what a day of darts yesterday! In what was a complete surprise to me and many others, five of the eight seeds went tumbling in the second round. It really did show what I touched on in my first column, namely that, in this short format, you're never far away from a shock or two.

Today is quarter final day and the format will now change slightly: We'll now see two singles matches (best of seven legs) and then a deciding pairs match if needed.

This new format will play into the hands of the English, in my view. They step up to the oche to face Japan in a game I think they'll win 2-0. Japan are as big as 13.5n/a to cause an upset but I just can't see that happening.

Similar to the England v Japan game, Spain against Wales is another game in which the format means the favourites will emerge victorious. If it was just a pairs setup Spain may well have been a threat, but Wales will be too strong and should also emerge 2-0 winners. Wales are currently 1.330/100 to record a win.

Finland face hosts Germany in their quarter final and will also of course have the obstacle of a home crowd to contend with. This one will be close but I can see Jani Haavisto being the deciding factor here. He's done the damage for Finland when needed and a bit of magic from him should see the Finns through.

First up though we've got Belgium taking on Croatia. The Belgians destroyed the Australians in the last round with a 101 average, the highest of the competition so far. Croatia have done well but this is where the tournament will end for them. 

And one thing's for sure, the Huybrechts brothers from Belgium are a real threat to win the whole tournament.

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Finland to beat Germany @ 2.01/1

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Premier League: Liverpool should make Owen move

"A player with Owen's history of winning things at the club may be just the sort of face Rodgers' young squad could use as inspiration."

Liverpool's transfer dealings have left them woefully short up front and Christian Crowther thinks that Michael Owen is the solution...

As the storm clouds gather on Merseyside following a hugely disappointing defeat to Arsenal, Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers had admitted letting Andy Carroll go out on loan was a big mistake.

The Gunners convincing display and clinical 2-0 victory at Anfield has strengthened their position at 3.3512/5 to achieve a second successive top-three finish in the Premier League.

In the wake of defeat, Rodgers conceded that he may now have to turn to free agents in order to add some bite to his toothless forward line after Carroll was allowed to join West Ham on loan.

It was widely believed Liverpool would bring in at least one forward replacement for the departing Carroll at the end of the transfer window, however, when Clint Dempsey arrived at Tottenham instead, it became quite clear no one else would be joining.

This has since led to chairman John Henry writing an 'open letter' to Reds fans posted on the club's website to explain Liverpool's actions in the market.

The American owner indicated his shared disappointment at the club's failure to find reinforcements, but also defended a policy of prudence and building from within rather than overpaying for players (Kenny Dalglish take a bow).

In the short term at least, Rodgers has hinted that he will consider dipping into the free agent market with Michael Owen, Didier Drogba, Alessandro Del Piero and Nicolas Anelka among those names being bandied about.

Drogba and Anelka's futures at Shanghai Shenhua have been cast into some doubt by recent boardroom wrangling at the club.

However, despite offering maybe the most exciting prospect - with wages believed to be in the region of around £200,000 per week at present - it seems highly unlikely that Liverpool will be able to lay out the required finances for Drogba.

Anelka is in a similar financial bracket and sources close to Le Sulk have also indicated that the Frenchman has no real desire to make a move back to English football.

Del Piero does offer another interesting prospect for Rodgers, though at 37 the Italian might be considered a little too old to cut it in the physical Premier League environment, while he is thought close to joining Sydney FC.

Former Kop favourite Owen has publically admitted his desire to stay in the north west after being released by Manchester United, with Stoke and Sunderland also said to be hovering.

The 32-year-old may not be the same player who left Anfield for Real Madrid some eight years ago but he does have heaps of experience and a rich goalscoring record at Anfield, netting 158 times in 297 appearances for Liverpool.

Although Owen's career has been blighted by injury, surely Liverpool would have nothing to lose by re-signing the striker at this stage given the circumstances.

A player with Owen's history of winning things at the club may be just the sort of face Rodgers' young squad could use as inspiration.

Despite Liverpool's terrible start to the season, the Reds are still available at 2.226/5 to achieve a top six place come May.

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Champions League: Malaga and Udinese should prevail

"Braga’s Estadio Municipal was not exactly a fortress in their Europa League campaign last year."

It's crunch time in the Champions League qualifying process as Christian Crowther predicts wins for Malaga and Udinese...

Braga v Udinese, Wednesday 19:45, Sky Sports 2 (Red Button), Match odds: Braga 2.26/5, Udinese 3.9n/a, The Draw 3.39/4
Udinese were somewhat unlucky to be drawn against Arsenal in last year's Champions League qualifying stage but they are back again having finished third in Serie A, which is no mean feat given that they denied illustrious company like Inter and Napoli a crack at the competition. The Italians have a slightly more favourable draw this time around against Portugal's own third-place team Braga, who incidentally they have never met. Udinese certainly bring the better form into the game having finished last season with four straight wins whereas the hosts managed one win from their last six - losing four in that run. Braga's Estadio Municipal was not exactly a fortress in their Europa League campaign last year either as they won just two out of five at home, losing two more, before exiting to Besiktas.
Recommended Bet: Back Udinese to beat Braga @ 3.9n/a

Malaga v Panathinaikos, Wednesday 19:45, Sky Sports 2, Match odds: Malaga 1.768/11, Panathinaikos 5.69/2, The Draw 3.8514/5
Malaga's pre-season troubles have been well-documented as their Qatari owner appears to be have suddenly lost interest and isapparently considering selling up. Star players such as Santi Carzola and last year's top goalscorer Salomon Rondon have since departed, however in16-year-old Fabrice Olinga, they may have uncovered a new gem. The Cameroonian teenager became La Liga's youngest ever scorer in Saturday's opening win over Celta Vigo. They should have too much at home for their Greek visitors here. Panathinaikos endured a miserable time in Europe last season; losing out in the Champions League qualifiers first round to little known OB of Denmark before getting dumped out of the Europa League in the play-off round by Israeli side Maccabi Tel Aviv. Malaga have won three of their last four home games to nil, drawing the other.
Recommended Bet: Back Malaga to win to nil @ 2.8415/8

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Grand National: Why you should trust Cheltenham form at Aintree

Features / Simon Rowlands / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

The stats bode well for Synchronised

"And Cheltenham winners fared best of all, having a median performance rating of just 8 below their pre-race master ratings."

Timeform's Head of Research and Development Simon Rowlands explains why Cheltenham form should be trusted this week and offers a couple of value bets on the Aintree "Specials" markets...

I am not a great believer in tradition on the whole. But it has its uses, and the predictable traditions of racing are something that can at least be turned to the punter's advantage.

The Grand National is not what it once was - there are no brick walls these days for a start - and I for one am pleased of that fact. But changes have tended to come gradually, and changes to Aintree's overall Grand National meeting have come more gradually still.

As a result, it is possible to come to such an occasion cold but with a good general idea of what to expect, as tradition ensures that history should hold some valuable lessons for us.

One of those lessons is the ability - or otherwise - of horses who ran well at the Cheltenham Festival to follow up just a few weeks later. Plenty have failed, and received wisdom might have you imagine that Aintree is a graveyard for horses coming on from the Cheltenham Festival. It is not.

The ever-readable James Pyman in Racing Post made this very point recently, concluding "since 2005, simply backing runners at Aintree who had posted a top-three finish at the Cheltenham festival on their previous outings would have led to 43 winners from 224 bets and a £1 level-stake profit of £37.89".

This tallies with my own findings, though stats can be distorted by the means of measurement employed, so I decided to have a closer look at the records from just the last three years.

"Actual against expected performance", as judged by a comparison between a horse's Timeform master rating pre-race and its Timeform performance rating in the race itself, provides further compelling evidence.

Horses that had last run at the Cheltenham Festival performed marginally better at Aintree than those that had come by a different route (median of 19 below and 22 below expectation respectively).

Those that had finished in the first three last time at Cheltenham fared better still (median of 14 below expectation). And Cheltenham winners fared best of all, having a median performance rating of just 8 below their pre-race master ratings. That is much better than for the wider horse population.

This has not been reflected fully in those horses' odds, either. A variable stake at Betfair SP (that is, more is theoretically staked on shorter-priced horses than on outsiders, thus limiting the effect of "fluke" events) saw Cheltenham winners handsomely in profit. Cheltenham runners-up sneaked into the black also.

Cheltenham and Aintree present rather different tests for horses, and this factor should not be ignored. But, otherwise, there is little evidence to support the contention that a good run at the former can be expected to compromise the chance of a good run at the latter.

And that could well be even more the case this year than usual, with an extra week's break between the two occasions.

..........
Tradition and history also make it easier to tackle special bets at the marquee events, as anyone who has done so at Cheltenham should appreciate.

There are just two such markets up on Betfair at the time of writing - Longest Winning SP and Winning Distance (Odds) - but they both make plenty of appeal to my mind.

The below table shows the history of these markets this century, with winning margins adjusted to allow for differences in means of returning those margins and a small increase in the number of races (there will be 21 again at this year's Aintree Grand National meeting).

With the going currently forecast to be "Good, Good to soft in places on the Grand National course", the years since 2002 seem to be our best guide to win margins.

Crunching the numbers led me to estimate a cumulative figure over the three days of around 112 lengths, which is comfortably inside the highest category available (over 105 lengths).

Frequencies of win odds this century were: 229 at under 33/1; 14 at 33/1 to 50/1; and 3 (all of which came in 2009) at over 50/1. This implies a probability of around 55% that the highest winning SP will fall into the middle - 33/1 to 50/1 - range which has provided the "winner" in 10 of those 12 years.

Special bets proved to be a nice money-spinner for followers of this blog at Cheltenham. Here's hoping that, like some of the equine protagonists, we can also back up our efforts from there!

Recommendations

Back "33/1 to 50/1 inclusive longest winning SP" 3 pts at [2.0] or longer
Back "more than 105 lengths cumulative winning margins" 2 pts at [2.0] or longer

The victory of the Donald McCain-trained Ballabriggs in last year's Grand National allowed Trevor Hemmings the opportunity to fully take in winning the world's greatest chase......

The Grand National is renowned for vast amounts of money being wagered across the country, with huge gambles being part of the folklore and romance surrounding the world's most famous chase......

Prior to last year, Jason Maguire had almost seemed destined to join jockeys such as Jamie Goldstein, Tom Jenks and Andy Adams who all missed out on their one real chance of glory in the Grand National....

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Should Liverpool sack Kenny Dalglish?

Premier League / Richard Aikman / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

"How many league matches do Liverpool have to lose before Dalglish’s credit runs out? Does he need to win the FA Cup to consider this a successful season?"

They won the Carling Cup but have lost five of their last six matches and are floundering in the league. So why does the Liverpool manager retain staunch backing from fans and pundits? Richard Aikman puts the boot in where others fear to tread.

For Liverpool the season gets stranger and stranger. There is more silverware in the trophy room, an FA Cup semi-final at Wembley awaits, but league form lurches from bad worse. Were it any other manager at the helm, the natives would be getting restless, but as it is Kenny Dalglish who is in charge, normal rules don't apply.

Once upon a time, any form of silverware would serve as job insurance for another season, but in an era in which the Champions League is the all-important money-spinning holy grail for Europe's leading clubs, the League Cup is small beer.
Even the FA Cup has lost much of its lustre, last year's 1-0 victory for Manchester City against Stoke a lowlight in the calendar both in terms of the quality of the match and the outcome. There was a time when the FA Cup was all-important, when two thirds of the nation's television output was devoted entirely to the build-up to the big day. After a long affair, however, the romance is gone.

Heads are now only really turned by the Champions League. The anthem, the floodlights, the Camp Nou, the kudos. Nothing else really compares, except perhaps for winning the title. And Liverpool, despite the vast sums have spent, seem as distant from that as ever.

So the question is, just how many league matches do Liverpool have to lose before Dalglish's credit runs out? Does he need to win the FA Cup to consider this a successful season? Would defeat to Everton in the FA Cup semi-final, assuming they overcome Sunderland in the last-eight stage, cause the board to review their coach's position?

These are genuine questions, not barbed pot-shots designed at denigrating a manager's name. The fact remains, though, that Liverpool have lost five of their last six matches - the last two defeats coming against relegation-embattled clubs - in their worst run since January 2005. Can you imagine what the reaction would have been if Roy Hodgson was still in charge?

Hodgson, incidentally, is second favourite to Harry Redknapp for the England job after yet another example of miracle working at West Brom. The former Inter Milan and Blackburn coach never stood a chance at Liverpool because he was in charge of a club in the process of being sold, had minimal backing in the transfer market (he spent £24m and recoupled £26m) and was having to work under the shadow of his eventual successor, the then academy director Dalglish.

King Kenny, meanwhile, has spent £117m (£76m recouped) on seven players who have so far failed to deliver (unless you count a League Cup which Birmingham won last season before getting relegated). The Reds are seventh in the table, just two points clear of Everton and Sunderland - and three of Norwich and Swansea. Indeed, Dalglish's league record this season reads as follows: W11, D9:L10, or in other words W37% D 30% L33%. Hodgson's read: W7 D4 L9 or W35% D20% L45%. Under anyone else's tenure, this would be a disaster.

BBC pundits Alan Hansen and Mark Lawrenson seldom hold back when putting the boot into teams in the mire, but both former Liverpool team-mates of Dalglish were conspicuous by their absence from Match of the Day last night. It seems that not even the neutral media are prepared to damage the legacy of a living footballing institution.

At least Dalglish had the good grace to front up to the press, unlike Roberto Mancini, who sent his stooge David Platt out to field questions form the press after a 1-1 draw at Stoke that handed the title initiative to Manchester United. A sharp man with a quick tongue, Dalglish normally holds his own against anything reporters throw at him, but the wily Scot was scraping the barrel on Saturday, when he passed the Wigan reverse off as "the price you pay for success". Seriously, what?

"'If you play Sunday-Wednesday-Saturday it's going to take its toll," claimed the 60-year-old, presumably referring to the herculean triumphs against Cardiff and Stoke.

"Whether that's the price you have to pay for success or a demanding TV schedule, I don't know. We're disappointed because a lot of the final balls in good positions we didn't deliver. Put that down to tiredness."

Didn't Liverpool concentrate on buying young players like Andy Carroll, Jordan Henderson and players in their prime like Stewart Downing, Charlie Adam and Luis Suarez so that they could endure the rigours of a long season? And how on earth does Dalglish think his side would fare if his team actually got into the Champions League, if his multi-million pound squad can't handle minor domestic cup assignments?

No one wants to see more managerial casualties in a business which places too much stock in short-term results and Dalglish, like everyone, should be given time to make his stamp on the side, but managers should also all be judged with equanimity and at the moment the silence that has greeted King Kenny's recent failings has been deafening.

Manchester City failed to take all three points from their clash with Stoke City this evening, thanks largely to a wonder goal by Peter Crouch, as the title race really hots up....

Bolton do fans proud and pick up three vital points while London rivals serve up a bore draw and Liverpool fail again......

There's little to separate these two so why try?! A stalemate looks likely in Sunday's only game in the Premier League, says Lee Dixon...

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WGC Cadillac Championship: Should you follow the third-round leader at Doral?

General / Romilly Evans / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

It happens to the very best. Even Tiger Woods didn't manage to close out the touranment in Abu Dhabi

"Just ask the game’s greatest closer, Tiger Woods. He owns an astonishing 48-4 strike rate when holding the 54-hole lead on Tour, but still meekly succumbed to the steady Robert Rock in Abu Dhabi."

Romilly Evans muses over the apparent difficulty in closing out golf events from the final-round lead.

Being the leader going into the final round of a golf tournament is a funny thing: it's an unnerving position to be in, but everyone wants to be in it. Now, as life's great paradoxes go, it may not be up there with that universal conundrum: how can something come out of nothing? But in the limited confines of professional golf, it does appear to be a universal truth.

Take this fledgling PGA Tour season, where of the nine strokeplay events contested only three have gone to the third-round leader. And in a few instances, these 54-hole pacemakers have squandered huge leads over the closing 18. Firstly, Kyle Stanley blew his top and a five-stroke lead at Torrey Pines. Then Spencer Levin trumped him the following week in Phoenix, imploding from six shots clear - and ironically gifting the trophy to Stanley himself.

As you would expect, both players traded long odds-on on the exchanges for prolonged periods (both before and during the fourth round) but came up short in the final analysis. Their own analysis of their respective capitulations was also very similar. Both complained of a feeling of an uneasiness pervading their game. "I wanted to protect rather than attack," admitted Stanley. "Weird thoughts consumed my mind, I got negative" confessed a spooked Levin.

Of course, this is completely understandable, especially since both men were seeking their maiden wins at the time. Other players chasing that elusive first victory to have fallen at the last include Charlie Wi, Matt Every, Daniel Summerhays. But to deduce that last-round fragility is the hallmark of the uninitiated would be a mistake. After all, 40-time winner Phil Mickelson, USPGA champ Keegan Bradley and veteran victor Jeff Maggert have each suffered a similar fate in 2012. So this phenomenon is clearly no respecter of experience.

Just ask the game's greatest closer, Tiger Woods. He owns an astonishing 48-4 strike rate when holding the 54-hole lead on Tour, but still meekly succumbed to the steady Robert Rock in Abu Dhabi. "Look, it's hard to win," was Tiger's concise conclusion. "Everyone's chasing you. You're in a position where if you do make a few mistakes, it's alright because you have shots to play with... But it also depends on how many guys are chasing. If you've got a whole wolf pack behind you or one or two guys, it's a totally different deal. Personally, I've always been excited about being in that position. I know I've played well to get there, so just trying to do the same things I did to get there and hopefully it will be enough."

And perhaps the last comment is what marks Woods out a messiah for the mainstream of pros - certainly when it comes to attitudinal advice. He never mistakes a chance to win for a chance to lose. That chance should seldom be so great as when a player is leading in the final round. However, the stats don't bear this out. Even a look at a broader sample from last year tells us that third-round leaders convert their opportunity less than 50 percent of the time (22 times in 43 events).

Psychology is crucial in all sports. But golf, with its myriad mechanics and time to ponder rather than play, is particularly cerebral - leaving any wager hostage to the stability of a player's mind. In short, better to be the hunter than the hunted. And as Tiger says, there's often a pack of hounds trying to outfox the leader down the stretch. These hunters run free on the thrill of the chase, while the hunted can get paralysed by fear.

How to spot any such susceptibility is the challenge for the punter. Factors invariably concern the individual leading, the individual(s) pursuing, the individual course, even the individual weather conditions. But finding a gold-standard solution from those imponderables is an equation beyond my mediocre maths.

One thing we can say for certain is that no third-round lead is secure and the Betfair layers are currently out to get the 54-hole leaders - especially when people have typically backed these players at far bigger odds earlier in the event on Betfair and want to lock in a profit. Last week's Honda Classic (finally living up to its name) provided an eloquent case in point. Pre-tournament favourite, Rory McIlroy, was two stokes clear after Saturday but there was still plenty of liquidity available at [1.64] to back him to collect the title. Not a bad price for the World No.1 elect, who duly hung on in determined fashion from a charging Tiger.

Yet this was a rare textbook example of a final round where a proven front-runner got the job done. One swallow does not make a summer. And this weekend's Cadillac Championship at Doral will doubtless see layers of the 54-hole leader again out in force. Watery graves lie in wait around every turn of the infamous "Blue Monster", not to mention on one of the toughest closing holes in golf. Those of a nervous disposition may be well looking to "green out" on the pacesetter if they have the chance, and that could offer some inflated prices for those with the temerity to back the leading candidate.

Still, whether you decide to drink from the poisoned chalice or not, the riddle of the third-round leader seems sure to confound us for years to come. Or perhaps I'm just making something out of nothing.

Rory McIlroy is the new World Number One after a two-stroke victory at the Honda Classic. But joint runner-up there Tiger Woods was in imperious form himself and things are tight in the Betfair US Masters winner market....

Rory McIlroy's talent has never been in doubt but the Irishman shouldn't take success for granted, says Ralph Ellis ahead of this weekend's Honda Classic....

Charl Schwartzel, Bill Haas and Nick Watney were three of Paul Krishnamurty's four golfers to watch last year - so who's he gone for this time round?...

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Chelsea boo-boys should embrace the AVB era

Premier League / Richard Aikman / 04 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

He was a genius less than a year ago - is he really a busted flush now?

"The Stamford Bridge boo-boys should recognise that the problem is less with the ‘dead man walking’ than it is the zombies under his charge."

Football's new economic realities mean Chelsea cannot simply spend their way out of the current 'crisis' and with so much dead wood in the ranks the best option must be to stick with Villas-Boas, says Richard Aikman

Watching André Villas-Boas trudging through the bowels of the Stadio San Paolo in Naples two weeks ago was a sorry sight. The Chelsea manager cut a disconsolate figure; head down and wearily bringing one leg before another, he had the air of a convict on his way to death row.

Fast forward 12 days and, after league defeat no.7, it now just seems a matter of when rather than if the Portuguese tactician's three-year plan will be brought to a premature end. The young tactician who could do no wrong at Porto last season has not made the transition to Stamford Bridge quite as seamlessly as the Special One, as odds of around [1.25] about his imminent exit would suggest.

The only surprise is that he has lasted this long. Roman Abramovich is the most trigger-happy owner in the English top flight and at a club where coming second or losing the Champions League final on penalties is deemed a failure, Villas-Boas' continued employment is a remarkable feat of survival.

There are many naysayers, and it has been a fierce baptism of fire for the Portuguese, but if he was hired to implement a "three-year plan" then he should be given the time to do so. Rome was not built in a day, and if we think back far enough it is worth remembering that Manchester United are now enjoying the rewards from having kept the faith in a manager of their own who won nothing in his first three seasons at the club. In the autumn of 1989 supporters at Old Trafford unveiled a banner that read: "Three years of excuses and it's still crap...ta-ra Fergie."

The difference between the two cases is expectation. Sir Alex Ferguson took over a club languishing at the wrong end of the table and which had not won the league for 19 years, while Chelsea's memories of the Jose Mourinho years and Carlo Ancelotti's double-winning season remain fresh in the mind.

For Abramovich, though, simply winning is no longer enough. He wants his Chelsea side to win with panache; he wants players to come through the youth system in the way the graduates of Barcelona's Masia academy do on a conveyor belt of self-sustaining success; he wants a mantra like the one used by AC Milan: "Vincere e convincere" (Win and convince). But this takes time ? it is a work in progress.

Villas-Boas is trying to completely revolutionise a side who have largely been brainwashed in the defence-first Mourinho way.

"There is so much pressure to succeed," the Chelsea coach said recently.

"I agree with Louis Van Gaal when he says it is much harder to defend an attacking philosophy. It is definitely easier to defend a cautious, defensive organisation with a compact block than to defend creativity, talent and attacking fluency. Positive teams will clash with those who 'contain and counter' and it will not be easy to triumph."

This is exactly the difficulty Chelsea came across at West Brom on Saturday, at Napoli a fortnight ago and at Everton last month. But the reason today's newspapers are suggesting Rafa Benitez or Pep Guardiola are preparing to replace Villas-Boas is because he has lost the dressing room. The powerful clique of players who are finding themselves increasingly marginalised by Villas-Boas are able to undermine their coach because results are not justifying his methods in the short term.

Arsène Wenger met with similar resistance from the old guard when he first arrived at Arsenal, but he had the good fortune to win the double in his first full season in charge, so the cynics in and outside the camp were soon silenced. These days, though, the Premier League is a far more competitive place than 14 years ago and playing the long game means running the risk of missing the Champions League money train. Chelsea are odds against to finish in the Top Four.

Abramovich is hardly strapped for cash but the UEFA Fair Play rules means that he will soon no longer be able to throw unlimited funds at the problem - and neither does he want to - but in Villas-Boas's defence he has not really been able to bring in his own men yet. Since his arrival only Juan Mata - the one consistent performer in the side - Raul Mereiles and Gary Cahill are established players to have arrived on AVB's say-so and Chelsea's is a side that needs a full-scale overhaul if they are to challenge for further honours.

Hard as it may be for Blues supporters to accept, it is time to respect these new austere times. Instant gratification is no longer the way forward. And the Stamford Bridge boo-boys should recognise that the problem is less with the 'dead man walking' than it is the zombies under his charge.

Young manager is given his marching orders after poor run of games. Di Matteo takes the helm until the close season...

With two attacking sides both wanting the three points, this should be an entertaining game - Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle....

Spurs seem to be faltering as the season comes to a climax - time for 'Arry to earn his corn with a return to form against the champions, says Lee Dixon...

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John Terry should stand down from England squad

Internationals / Richard Aikman / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The FA acted decisively but they should have gone further and dropped Terry

"Even if you believe England's Euro 2012 prospects to be weaker without Terry in the squad, surely there are more important things at stake here."

James Eastham applauds the FA's decision to strip John Terry of the England captaincy and calls on the Chelsea defender to step down from national team...

If John Terry truly has the leadership skills worthy of an England captain then he should stand down from international duty until he proves his innocence. Being a good captain is not about looking after number one, it is about looking after the well-being of the group, and whether he is guilty of racially aggravated public order or not, his continued presence in the England camp can only be detrimental to the unity within the squad. Standing down is the only way he can salvage any respect.

It's sad that after all the work the FA, the Premier League and the League Managers Association have done to stamp out racism - action that has proudly set them apart from federations elsewhere in the world ? recent months have been dominated by high-profile race rows. But it is precisely because of their strong stance that these issues have emerged. Rather than brush thorny issues under the carpet, as would happen in most countries, the FA have shown firm resolve in the matter and should be commended for it.

David Bernstein, the FA's president, was hardly helped by the decision to cowtow to Chelsea's request and delay Terry's hearing until July 9. Apparently, it would have been an inconvenience for their £170,000-a-week defender to interrupt his busy season to answer charges. And so, with the prospect of an alleged racist leading a multi-ethnic party to the European Championships, Bernstein rightly stripped the 31-year-old of the armband.

The only problem is, Bernstein did not go far enough. However good the Chelsea centre-half is deemed to be, unless he is removed entirely from the equation the unity of the squad will be undermined. As Jason Roberts said earlier this week, "'Believe me, the dressing room at the Euros will be toxic unless the correct decision is made. I do not believe that the England captain should go to the Euros." Indeed, one wonders whether internal divisions at Stamford Bridge might not be responsible for Chelsea's current campaign, which has been stuttering ever since that fateful day at Loftus Road on October 23. (They have won just six of 14 league matches since and find themselves a massive [180.00] to win the league).

Even if you believe England's Euro 2012 prospects to be weaker without Terry in the squad, surely there are more important things at stake here. To be honest, most football supporters couldn't care less who is captain of their country - or indeed their club - so long as the ambassadorial role does not go to somebody whose very sight makes your skin crawl. Terry's repeated indiscretions over the years simply do not make him worthy of the shirt let alone the captaincy, which incidentally earns the chosen skipper an extra £1m a year. As John Barnes said on Sportsweek today, "If John Terry is deemed too racist to captain England, then why isn't he too racist to play for England?"

It is only fair that one should be considered innocent until proven guilty, and it must be this, as well as the fact that Fabio Capello has sided staunchly with his captain throughout this latest sorry episode, that prevented Bernstein from taking a harder line. But an England captain, for want of a better phrase, should be whiter than white and so should any England player. It is with this is mind that the FA have decided to introduce an England charter to which all called-up players must sign up, agreeing to a code of conduct that if breached, will result in a pre-established disciplinary measures.

This is how far football has stooped. So detached and entitled have our elite modern-day footballers become that they require a handbook to tell them how ordinary human beings should behave. It has come too late for Terry - the book should have been thrown at him a long time ago - but let us hope he at least has the good sense to step down - or better still quit international football altogether.

It's two wins and two clean sheets for England, whilst in Dublin the party is in full swing as Republic of Ireland qualify for Euro 2012....

With a commanding 4-0 lead from the first leg, Giovanni Trapattoni's men are shoo-ins to reach next summer's tournament in Ukraine and Poland, writes James Eastham....

After England's excellent victory over Spain it's inevitable that the nation expect a follow-up win against Sweden; but Mike Norman expects this game (and the result) to be completely different....

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Rugby World Cup: Pumas defence should hold firm against Georgia

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Argentina look set for the knockout stages

"Now that England have beaten Scotland, Argentina only need a point to progress... "

Argentina are only a point away from the quarter-finals as they face Georgia in a match that Geoffrey Riddle expects to be dominated by defence...

Argentina v Georgia, Sunday 01:00 (ITV1)

Argentina

In all four of their matches in 2011 the Pumas have scored the first points of the match.

They have scored the first points of the second half in all of their three matches at the World Cup, also.

Argentina have missed 20 shots at goal in their four matches this year - the worst strike-rate of all the teams in the tournament

Argentina's lineout fell apart against Scotland. The Pumas lost four of their 12.

Georgia

Georgia have been handicap winners on the main line in all three of their matches during this Rugby World Cup.

Georgia's starting VX have 563 caps between them - the most experienced side the Lelos have fielded at a World Cup.

Match stats

Georgia have named Toulon prop David Zirakashvili in an effort to combat the Pumas' giant front row, although he faces a late fitness test due to a respiratory infection. Record try scorer, Mamuka Gorgodze lines up at flanker but Merab Kvirkashvili, who scored 17 points against Romania on Wednesday is on the bench.

Santiago Phelan has named an under-strength side. He has made five changes to the side that defeated Scotland last weekend.

Preview

Argentina's defence is one of the most watertight in the tournament. Scotland never looked even close to crossing the whitewash when the two teams clashed last weekend and only a sublime piece of inspiration from scrum-half Ben Youngs saw England touch down.

How Romania managed to score a try against the Pumas is anyone's guess and the Oaks are a far more dynamic team going forward than Georgia.

Now that England have beaten Scotland, Argentina only need a point to progress to the knockout stage. Santiago Phelan has named an under-strength Pumas side and although there is a danger the game could open up both teams have proud and effective defences which should hold firm.

Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan):
2pts Back under 41.5 total match points

Geoffrey Riddle sees few bright spots for Martin Johnson's men ahead of their second test against a pumped up Australia...

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Follow The Money: You should Coco

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 16 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Today's first mover runs at HQ

"Wild Coco who has been backed in from an early [3.1] in to [2.26]."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Newmarket, Ripon and Market Rasen.

The 14:35 at Newmarket has seen sustained support for Wild Coco who has been backed in from an early [3.1] in to [2.26]. Henry Cecil`s three-year-old takes a step up in class today after running away with a Haydock maiden over today`s trip last time out. With the well beaten second and third from that contest subsequently winning the form looks strong so a big run looks on the cards today with the forecast rain likely to be in her favour.

At Ripon, Ginger Jack has been well backed in to [4.7] from [9.4] for their 14:50 handicap. This four-time winner does not have an obvious chance on recent form having run moderately on all three starts for his new stable this season. He does however race off a three pound lower mark today than when last successful and if the early money is anything to go by then a return to form is imminent.

Our final mover is a negative over the jumps at Market Rasen where Paddy The Hare has drifted out from [1.87] to [2.7] in the 16:20 novice hurdle. AP McCoy`s mount left his bumper form behind when beating a fair rival at Uttoxeter last time on fast ground. He does however face a couple of rivals today who have been running respectively on the flat of late that could prove troublesome. Add to that easy ground would be an unknown should the rain arrive so this one looks worth taking on at short odds.

Recommended Bets
Back Wild Coco @ [2.26] Newmarket 14:35
Back Ginger Jack @ [4.7] Ripon 14:50
Lay Paddy The Hare @ [2.7] Market Rasen 16:20

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Newbury, Haydock and Nottingham....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Hamilton and Leicester......

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Catterick and Uttoxeter....

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US Open Tips: Cream should rise to the top at Congressional

US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 14 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

The best scrambling skills in the game make Phil a top bet at his current 17

"It isn't every day that we can take odds-against about a bet that has won nine times in a row - and 13 times out of the last 14 - that bet being Luke Donald to finish in the top 10."

The US Open is no ordinary tournament and likely winners are few and far between, says Paul Krishnamurty, who recommends four wagers at Congressional

With Sunday's results fresh in mind, there is a temptation to conclude that backing the market leaders is a mug's game. In the States, Harrizon Frazar became the 15th triple-figure priced winner on this year's PGA Tour, ending a 354 tournament losing streak. Italian Open winner Robert Rock was a likelier pick at [70.0], but he too had never previously delivered in a decade of trying. Such results strengthen the new consensus that golf has never been more open, illustrated by the fact that there is nobody trading in single figures for the US Open.

That certainly doesn't mean, however, that the favourites are poor value. Far from it. Run of the mill tournaments are one thing, the US Open quite another. Whereas at least 50, perhaps 100, different players could plausibly have won the St Jude Classic, it is hard to fancy more than a couple of dozen contenders this week at Congressional. Along with the other majors, the US Open is usually one of the most predictable events of the year, because the demands of these tough set-ups are simply too penal for most. As explained in detail here, these courses strongly favour specific types of experienced, US Open specialists.

Plus, the formbook usually stands up at Congressional. The last US Open here was won by Ernie Els, with tournament specialists Colin Montgomerie, Tom Lehman and Jim Furyk close behind. The four PGA Tour events played there this century were all won by plausible candidates - Tiger Woods, Anthony Kim, KJ Choi and Sergio Garcia. I'm expecting another leaderboard packed with obvious names, and recommend the following portfolio.

Outright Trading Plan
6u Lee Westwood @ [14.0]
5u Phil Mickelson @ [17.0]
Place order to lay both players 20u @ [3.0]
So far as winning the tournament is concerned, it is hard to envisage either Lee Westwood or Phil Mickelson being far away. A trade on Westwood at [14.0] would have yielded dividends in recent majors. He's made the top-three on four of his last six, with nothing worse than 16th. His case is a classic example of how world-class players often enjoy a better record in majors than lesser, weaker events. Lee's ability to consistently drive the ball long and straight is ideal for these tough layouts, particularly in this major.

While that breakthrough major has remained painfully elusive, with his career at it's peak, Westwood will never get a better opportunity. He's really taken the eye on his last three starts, suggesting a perfectly timed preparation. First he was outstanding for two rounds at the World Matchplay, then he lost a play-off at Wentworth. Last week's respectable title defence at Southwind improved as the week progressed, closing with 66.

Likewise Mickelson's last round in public, a 67 at Memorial two weeks ago, was extremely promising. Before the Masters, Phil chose to play the previous event, producing arguably the best performance of his career to win the Houston Open, only to underperform at Augusta. The decision to take a week off this time may well prove a more sensible warm-up. Due largely to his scrambling skills, nobody is better suited to the US Open than Mickelson, who has been runner-up five times, and traded odds-on in four of the last seven renewals. These simply aren't the form figures of a [17.0] chance.

As those records indicate, both men have had more than their fair share of late disasters in tournaments, so it makes good sense to lay back for profit if and when their odds shorten up. Hopefully with this plan, they'll both trade down to [3.0] and yield a substantial profit whatever the eventual outcome.

Top-10 finish
6u Luke Donald @ [2.4]
4u Matt Kuchar @ [3.5]
It isn't every day that we can take odds-against about a bet that has won nine times in a row - and 13 times out of the last 14 - that bet being Luke Donald to finish in the top 10. The Englishman presents a constant headache for layers. He has never been prolific, and even a recent career highlight victory at Wentworth was barely a convincing front-running performance. That indifferent reputation tends to keep his outright odds respectably high, and layers tend to employ a straightforward calculation when determining his odds to reach the top-ten, roughly dividing the outright price by ten. The consequence is to create a bet that represents almost constant value. Donald is so consistent that, in reality, he should be heavily odds-on and certainly nowhere near the [2.4] available here.

An almost identical argument applies to the most consistent American player. Matt Kuchar's record can't quite match up to Donald's, but that is reflected by bigger odds. Kuchar has made the top-ten on 21 of his last 42 starts, which would naturally have generated massive profit for anybody repeatedly taking this week's quote of [3.5]. The reason for both men's success is that they've managed to iron out every weakness in their games. Despite lacking power, their accuracy and brilliance around the greens ensures very few mistakes. Moreover, it is the ideal skills set for a US Open.

American golf fans desperately need a change of fortunes according to Steve. Will they get one this week at the US Open?...

Mike Norman finds it very hard to select anyone other than Luke Donald at this week's US Open, but he also believes a few other in-form Europeans are set for an excellent four days in Washington....

Justin Rose is set for an early bloom at Congressional, according to Romilly Evans, but who else makes the cut in his look at the likely pacemakers for the first-round lead at the US Open?...

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Three-match ban should be foul-mouthed Wayne's punishment

Premier League / Richard Aikman / 03 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Oh, Wayne, when you will learn?!

"Rooney needed to be angry to pull the match out of the fire, but that still doesn’t excuse his antics. He has the bearing of a man who feels entitled – but football is entitled to more from its leading lights."

Wayne Rooney has once more attracted negative publicity after a using a Sky microphone to broadcast an obscene rant - and he must be punished this time, says richard Aikman

"I'm a Manchester United fan," said one caller into Radio Five Live's 606 programme last night, "and I'm never going to watch them again. What Rooney did was disgraceful."

According to 'Disgusted from Tunbridge Wells', Wayne Rooney had taken his poor behaviour one step to far by unleashing a foul-mouthed rant into the living rooms of millions of lunchtime viewers after scoring his third goal against West Ham yesterday.

Rooney had stared down the lens of the camera and sworn aggressively into it like a yob asking you to step outside. At the risk of sounding like a Daily Mail journalist, footballers do have a responsibility to supporters and youngsters watching, especially the Sky viewers who pay their wages. The likes of Rooney, great player though he is, fail to comprehend this.

He may be from a disadvantaged background but that doesn't preclude him from behaving any differently from anyone else. Only by receiving a three-match ban, which is the punishment for being sent off for using abusive and insulting language, will the matter be put to bed to any degree of satisfaction. Such action would be a shame, because at his best the England striker is the nation's best talent, but hopefully it will embarrass the United striker into improving his conduct in future - and if not - he will just have to keep learning his lesson the hard way.

Only last week the chief executive of the Premier League Richard Scudamore said that there was going to be a crackdown on unacceptable behaviour by players and managers, and although he was referring to the general attitude towards referees and suggested that action would be taken from next season, what better opportunity is there for those who govern the game to show they mean business by making an example of Rooney? Why should be wait until next season to step up the Respect campaign? What's wrong with now?

Last night a spokesman said: "We will look into it. We obviously do not condone foul or abusive language in front of the TV cameras." I'm sure they don't condone elbows on other players either, and yet Rooney got away with as much when taking out James McCarthy of Wigan recently.

Yet to their credit the FA did hand down a five-match touchline ban on Sir Alex Ferguson for questioning the integrity of match official Martin Atkinson recently. Rooney should also not be immune from punishment, even if he (or more likely a club PR man) did issue an immediate written apology.

Rooney's problem is that he seems unable to play at his best unless he is angry. He seems to have a persecution complex, which would have been heightened by a disappointing first half in which United once again went two goals down. After the break Rooney, presumably after receiving the hairdryer treatment from his manager, single-handedly won the game with a fine hat-trick, borne of his ire. He needed to be angry to pull the match out of the fire, but that still doesn't excuse his antics. He has the bearing of a man who feels entitled - but football is entitled to more from its leading lights.

And it's a shame that today's main Premier league talking point is all about Rooney's outburst rather than his brilliance, especially as United, Rooney ban or no Rooney ban, have effectively won the league. They are now [1.25] to clinch the title for a 19th time, while Arsenal are out to [7.6].

The north Londoners are seven points back, with a game in hand and home match against United still to come. United also have the added distraction of Champions League and FA Cup commitments, but the Gunners - while better on their day than United - simply don't have the mettle of champions. Arsene Wenger tried to take the heat of his players before their goalless draw with Blackburn by telling his players they needed to relax. Consequently, they played with all the energy and urgency of sleepwalkers. Despite creating an avalanche of chances, they were again guilty of trying to walk the ball into the net rather than shoot when the option was there. They clearly haven't recovered from shattered treble dreams and lack players with the belief and cojones to stand up and be counted.

What United have is experience, a winning mentality, and a knowledge that they can come back from adversity however bad they are playing; indeed quite how the Red Devils are [2.02] to reach the Champions League semi-finals as opposed to Chelsea's [1.86] is a mystery and somehow I think 'Disgusted from Tunbridge Wells' might have forgotten all about Rooney if United complete the treble [18.5] at Wembley next month.

The stats say it'll be a low-scoring affair at Eastlands, but which way will it go? Feizal Rahman may have the answers...

The Tangerines are considered to be in danger while the hosts are 'top-ten' material, yet a win on Sunday would lift them above Fulham in the Premier League. But, as Frank Gregan says, Blackpool have not enjoyed their trips to...

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The Great England Debate! Should Wilshere still play with the kids?

Internationals / Ralph Ellis / 28 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jack Wilshere has shown that English talent can rise through the Arsenal ranks but his strong displays in the national team colours mean that he's in demand - for both Fabio Capello and Stuart Pearce

There's always been a bit of a myth that Arsene Wenger didn't allow English players to roll off the end of his production line of young talent. A succession of promising kids have gone away from first Highbury, and then the Emirates, over the years grumbling that they never got a chance.

Many of them were a tad bitter about it too, claiming that Wenger favoured the boys who'd been brought into Arsenal's academy from Africa or France above those who came from Islington or Essex. But the truth was that while many of them went on to make decent careers elsewhere - the likes of Steve Sidwell or Matthew Upson - you're struggling to name anybody who hit the real heights at another big club after Arsenal let them go.

Wenger's rule has always been that the ones who make it to his first team get there on the basis of talent, and more particularly the hard work to apply that talent, than what's stamped on their passports. And now finally comes proof of his claim with the emergence of Jack Wilshere.

In a dull 90 minutes as England cruised to a 2-0 win over Wales at Cardiff on Saturday, Wilshere was England's shining light. Until now Michael Owen at the 1998 World Cup and Wayne Rooney at Euro 2004 were the two best examples of a teenager stepping straight onto the international stage and looking completely at home. Arsenal's 19-year-old midfield prodigy goes straight into that category.

Clearly his response to the difficulties of breaking through the ranks of other talented teenagers at The Emirates has not been to moan about the competition, but to embrace it as a challenge to rise to. The result is England's most promising midfield prospect since Steven Gerrard first fought his way through Liverpool's ranks.

The better news is the work ethic is still there. Wenger might want him to take the summer off, but Wilshere has warned this morning that if he's picked for the European Under 21 Championships he wants to play.

"It is international football and I want to play in any international football. It's up to Stuart Pearce and Fabio Capello," he says.

Significantly he's leaving out the name of his club manager in those who will be responsible for the decision.

Sadly it looks like Wilshere won't play for England again in tomorrow night's friendly against Ghana, as Capello goes down the Sven Goran-Eriksson route of appeasing the clubs. He's already sent home the stars who are still involved in the Champions League (nice to know John Terry was so passionate about becoming captain again that he didn't want to stay and play). And the likely reserve side that will face the World Cup quarter-finalists, who won 3-0 in an African Nations Cup tie in Congo yesterday, makes the idea of laying England at [1.7] for the Wembley friendly extremely tempting.

My Betting.Betfair colleague Richard Aikman wrote an excellent piece yesterday about the death of international football, and this weekend didn't offer many reasons to argue with him. Wilshere's progress was one of the bright spots, as was the performance of Aaron Ramsey in his first game as captain of Wales. They will clearly both be important if Gunners are to get back into the Premier League title race in which their price has slipped to [4.3].

I also thought that Charlie Adam didn't look so very out of place in Scotland's 2-0 defeat against Brazil. And given that David Vaughan made an impact as a sub for Wales, there's encouragement to lay Blackpool at their current relegation price of [2.24].

Coventry goalkeeper Keiren Westwood was another who brought some brightness with a smashing display that helped secure a 2-1 Saturday night win over Macedonia to keep Giovanni Trapattoni's team in with a chance of qualifying. Level on ten points with Russia and Slovakia after five games, they are [4.1] to win the group, and [2.5] to qualify for the finals.

Westwood, let go by both Manchester United and Manchester City as a boy, was filling out the forms to become a policeman before Carlisle gave him a route back into the game. He's another good example of how there are chances for anybody to hit the big time, if you're only willing to do the work to take them.

An experimental Brazil side should still be too good for a defensive-minded Scotland side says Mike Norman, but don't expect too many goals in this international friendly....

With such a long break between international matches it can be difficult to keep up to speed with Fabio Capello's team. Michael Cox assesses the 12 matches England have played in the last year and makes four key conclusions....

Wales hit by injury blow as Spurs star is omitted from squad for Saturday's match......

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US Master 2011: Should Tiger Woods be favourite?

US Masters / Mike Norman / 28 March 2011 / 1 Comments

Tiger Woods is the favourite to win this year’s US Masters and claim his fifth green jacket

"In winning four times at Augusta National, Tiger’s stroke average is 68.375. Since his return last year he has averaged close to 71.2 on the PGA Tour – that’s almost 12 strokes per tournament below his winning form here."

Mike Norman has been quite vocal in opposing Tiger Woods since he returned to the game, and now he is pleading for your help to explain why the great man is favourite to win next week's US Masters.

There aren't many people who have lived in the world who are instantly recognisable by name to almost every adult human being. Elvis Presley and Michael Jackson were two such people, and perhaps also are Princess Diana and Marilyn Monroe. And from the sporting world we can add the likes of Pele and Muhammad Ali to that list.

And of course, who hasn't heard of Tiger Woods?

Even my girlfriend has heard of Tiger, and she is someone who knows so little about what's going on in the world that she still thinks a Chilean miner is a kid that hasn't wrapped up properly!

Now, unless you were on a different planet a year ago you'll know that Mr Woods went through a pretty traumatic time off the golf course. But what about on the golf course? If you're not an avid follower of golf, but like so many people you love having a punt on the US Masters (it's how I got into golf betting), then Tiger will be the first name that springs to mind. You'll notice that he is still ranked amongst the world's top-five players, you'll remember that he has a fantastic record round Augusta National, and you'll see that he is the current [10.0] favourite to don his fifth green jacket next Sunday evening.

But the picture I've just painted above is very murky; a much clearer picture is painted below.

The Official Golf World Rankings are calculated on a player's previous two years of performances, so in Tiger's case, his five PGA Tour wins (and three second place finishes) between June 2009 and news breaking about his personal life are calculated in the rankings you see today.

Since Tiger returned to golfing action this time last year he has very rarely hit the heights he did pre-scandal. In fact, based on his performances in 2010 alone Tiger ranked number 41 in the world for that calendar year. And it doesn't get any better this year. So far in 2011, more than 75 players have accumulated more ranking points than Tiger. Effectively then, the great man - who is currently ranked number five in the world remember - is languishing somewhere outside the world's top 50 if you compile a list based on everyone's performances from January 2010 onwards.

So what about course form? Some will argue - me included - that course form is vital in golf betting. But the key is that it is only vital when a golfer is playing to a similar standard as at the time when a certain course gave him an edge. Tiger is not playing to the standard he was 18 months ago - nowhere near it in fact - so therefore his previous record at the Masters is easily overlooked. In winning four times at Augusta National, Tiger's stroke average is 68.375. Since his return last year he has averaged close to 71.2 on the PGA Tour - that's almost 12 strokes per tournament below his winning scores in Georgia.

And remember, Tiger also has an incredible record at Firestone Country Club (seven wins) and at Bay Hill (six wins), but in his current guise he finished 78th and 24th respectively at those venues.

Tiger's personal problems have undoubtedly contributed to his regression, and whether or not he brought those problems on himself, I will never criticise him for that. What many will criticise him for however is his decision to change his golf swing. True, it's not the finished article yet but Tiger is driving the ball appallingly at times. He ranks just 187th in Driving Accuracy, one of the key stats you look at when selecting a likely US Masters winner.

And of the other key stats required next week Tiger ranks just 105th in Putting - for so many years the strongest part of his game - and 135th in Sand Saves.

Put simply, Tiger is normal again. He is about the 50th best player in the world on form shown since early last year; he is averaging close to 12 shots per tournament worse than his previous winning US Masters scores; he has recently played poorly at venues where he was previously brilliant; he hasn't won in 20 competitive tournaments; and his 2011 PGA Tour stats don't inspire any confidence whatsoever.

Yet Tiger Woods is the [10.0] favourite to win one of the most hotly-contested golf tournaments of the season. I'm relying on you good people to please tell me why.

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......

An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......

Dan Fitch takes a look at the golfers who made winning majors into a habit....

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Bundesliga Betting: Huge clash...which Bayern should win

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 25 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Big guns. Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery and Sebastian Schweinsteiger are the hereatbeat of this team

"Barring their late collapse in Cologne, Bayern have sparkled since the winter break, and Robben, Ribery and Gomez are all on top form."

It's Bayern Munich versus league leaders Borsussia Dortmund this weekend in a match which may well have a huge say in where the title goes this year. Kevin Hatchard discusses this match and the other best bets...

Bayern Munich [1.88] vs Borussia Dortmund [4.4], the draw [3.9]

Of the 11 games leaders Borussia Dortmund still have to play this season, this is undoubtedly the toughest. Bayern are third, 13 points behind BVB, and will come out all guns blazing at the Allianz Arena in a game they have to win.

Bayern's recent home form has been exceptional. The Bavarians have won their last seven home matches, scoring 26 goals and conceding just four in the process. Louis van Gaal's men go into Saturday's match full of confidence after a superb 1-0 win at Inter in the Champions League. Bayern were deserved victors, with terrifying twosome Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery in electrifying form. Mario Gomez's winner was his 27th goal of the season, not bad when you consider he's made just 31 appearances.

The return to fitness of Robben and the return to form of Ribery has given Bayern a huge boost. Bayern swarmed all over Mainz in last week's 3-1 victory, and could have racked up five or six goals in a scintillating display. At the other end rookie goalkeeper Thomas Kraft has adapted superbly to the pressures of playing for one of Europe's top clubs - van Gaal's decision to throw Kraft in at the deep end is looking inspired.

After draws against Kaiserslautern and Schalke, Dortmund returned to winning ways last week by beating St Pauli 2-0. Young German internationals Mario Gotze and Kevin Grosskreutz buzzed around impressively, but as a team Dortmund are still missing too many chances. Jurgen Klopp's men can take heart from a superb away record, with ten wins from 12 games.

When these two sides met at the Westfalen in October, Dortmund ran out 2-0 winners. The scoreline was somewhat misleading - Bayern dominated the first half, with an off-colour Mario Gomez wasting the kind of chances he now gleefully snaps up.

RECOMMENDED BETS: Barring their late collapse in Cologne, Bayern have sparkled since the winter break, and Robben, Ribery and Gomez are all on top form. If Dortmund keeper and captain Roman Weidenfeller fails a fitness test on a knee injury, the visitors will have an even tougher job on their hands. Back Bayern to win at [1.88], although in a tight game In-Play bettors may be tempted to wait until half-time for that price to improve. Both sides are defending well, so backing under 2.5 goals at [2.24] looks sensible.

Werder Bremen [3.2] vs Bayer Leverkusen [2.34], the draw [3.6]

If Dortmund lose, second-placed Bayer could cut their lead to just seven points with victory at struggling Werder on Sunday. The defensive weaknesses which have plagued Thomas Schaaf's Bremen all season were on show yet again in last week's 4-0 derby defeat at Hamburg. Chronic underperformers Sebastian Prodl and Mikael Silvestre put in another somnambulant display, and appear to be dragging German international Per Metesacker down to their level. Werder have now shipped 48 goals - only rock-bottom Monchengladbach have conceded more.

Werder are just a point above the dropzone, and I expect Bayer to make things worse for them. Bayer lost to title rivals Dortmund in their first game after the winter break, but they've since won four out of five. The return of striker Stefan Kiessling from long-term injury is a massive plus, and he scored twice in last week's 4-2 win over Stuttgart.

RECOMMENDED BET: Bayer have collected 26 points from 33 available on the road, and they should sweep aside a Werder team that simply can't defend. Back Bayer to win at [2.34]

Wolfsburg [2.02] vs Borussia Monchengladbach [4.2], the draw [3.65]

As I suspected, Wolfsburg coach Pierre Littbarski hasn't had the instant impact the Wolves were expecting after they jettisoned Steve McClaren. Littbarski's overseen two defeats, and only goal difference is keeping the club out of the dropzone.
New Borussia boss Lucien Favre did have an instant impact, masterminding a 2-1 win over Schalke, the Foals' first home victory. Borussia have picked up most of their points on the road, winning four out of 11.

RECOMMENDED BET: Wolfsburg are a shambles, and rejuvenated Borussia will see Friday's game as a great chance to get off the bottom. Back Borussia to win at [4.2]

It's Bayern Munich versus league leaders Borsussia Dortmund this weekend in a match which may well have a huge say in where the title goes this year. Kevin Hatchard discusses this match and the other best bets......

Borussia Dortmund versus St Pauli, Mainz versus Bayern Munich and Inter Milan versus Cagliari are among the games that Betfair customers are able to enjoy this weekend courtesy of Betfair Live Video.

Borussia Dortmund manager Jurgen Klopp is concerned that his side have look nervous in recent weeks but can they get their title campaign back on track this weekend? Kevin Hatchard selects the weekend's best Bundesliga bets....

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