Champions League Betting: Should Wembley already be preparing for a German party?

Following a sensational week of Champions League football, Callum Davis looks at the fallout from the first legs of the semi-inals and casts an eye over the odds for the eventual winner of the tournament.

In a Champions League week which few football fans would have foreseen, Real Madrid and Barcelona find themselves facing the exit door after two resounding defeats to German opponents. The combined score from the two ties stands at 8-1 to Germany on aggregate, and the prospect of an all-German final looks the most likely outcome. Surely there's no way back for either of the Spanish sides?

Barcelona look to be all but out of the running for the final, and although they have a team of world beaters with the potential to perform miracles, the task looks too difficult given the lacklustre form of Lionel Messi and the quality of their opponents.

Bayern have been described as the most in-form side in Europe this season and Barca's inability to create any meaningful chances in the Allianz Arena will not have done anything to persuade punters that they should be backing them to qualify at the price of 2322/1.

In contrast, Real Madrid's away goal gives them the faintest of hopes of being able to overturn their 3 goal deficit and progress through to the final. Madrid are 1.594/7 to win on the night but it will take more than mere victory to ensure that the reigning Spanish champions progress to Wembley, and they are priced out at 12.5n/a to go on and win the final.

With Madrid's firepower up front, featuring the tournament's top goalscorer, Cristiano Ronaldo, the issue will not be whether they are able to score the goals required, but more whether they will be able to stop Dortmund, and Lewandowski in particular, from adding to the aggregate score and putting the tie to bed. You can back Madrid to qualify for the final at odds of 5.85/1.

An all-German final is now priced at 1.241/4 after both sides registered such resounding victories with the superior performances to boot. Bayern are currently favourites to win Europe's biggest prize at 1.715/7 while Dortmund are currently trading at 3.1511/5. Despite the fact that Bayern have run away with the Bundesliga this season, I'd expect an all-German final to be much more closely contested than the current odds suggest. 

Bayern have the edge on Dortmund in their head-to-head record this season with two wins and one draw in league and cup competitions. Saying that, all three of the previous match ups took place in the Allianz Arena so a prospective clash at Wembley may not necessarily adhere to the form guide. 

Dortmund's dominant display against Madrid was arguably more impressive than Bayern's the previous evening, with Graeme Souness lauding the game as the greatest single Champions League showing he has ever witnessed. The Dortmund team have a youthful energy and abundance of pace which the older legs of Bayern will surely be wary of. If any team will be able to match Bayern Munich's work ethic and tenacity it will be Jurgen Klopp's Dortmund side and I will be having a punt on them to win the Champions League at 3.1511/5.

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German Football: Bayern's house not quite in order

German Football / Ben Lyttleton / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Bayern's "world class at his peak" midfielder Arjen Robben

"The prospect of Bayern going a second straight season without the title, for the first time since 1995 and 1996, becomes more likely."

Bayern Munich are facing another season without a league title says Ben Lyttleton, and discontent within the camp might just hinder their Champions League aspirations also.

When the draw for the Champions League Round of 16 was made last December there were sighs of relief in Munich. Bayern, who did well to top the toughest group which contained Napoli, Manchester City, and Villarreal, were drawn against FC Basle, surprise qualifiers ahead of Manchester United, and friends and neighbours of the German giants.

After all, Basle began the season with former Bayern stalwart Thorsten Fink on the bench; his successor Heiko Vogel used to work with Bayern's youth teams; and last month, Bayern signed Basle's playmaker Xherdan Shaqiri, who will move in the summer. It all looked perfect for the team who will host this year's Champions League final ­ and it was why Bayern were backed as third-favourites behind Barcelona and Real Madrid to win the competition.

Fast forward ten weeks and the picture is not so rosy. In the last fortnight, Bayern have dropped four points, going from top to third and they are now four points behind new German leaders Borussia Dortmund. Last week showed that teams often drop points before vital Champions League matches (Lyon, Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen all lost before their midweek ties) but no-one expected Bayern to drop points at bottom-of-the-table Freiburg.

The game finished 0-0 and with Dortmund beating Hertha 1-0 to extend their unbeaten run to 16 games, closing in on a club record 19 from 1991-92, the prospect of Bayern going a second straight season without the title, for the first time since 1995 and 1996, becomes more likely. Dortmund are now [1.85] to win the Bundesliga, with Bayern [2.98]. Borussia Moenchengladbach, one point ahead of Bayern, are [11.0].

You can normally gauge how things are going at Bayern by monitoring which of their top brass is speaking and about what, and last week suggested things are not altogether breezy in Bavaria. First, Franck Ribery declared that, "the second team is not strong enough", suggesting that there is little strength in depth (as Rafi Hongistein explains here, the Shaqiri signing goes some way to solving that
) and he was proved right on Saturday, as David Alaba and Luis Gustavo struggled against Freiburg¹s pressing game.

Then chief executive Karl-Heinz Rummenigge weighed in with a long-winded
criticism of referees showing bias against his club. "Referees are always deciding against Bayern when they are in doubt, because that will bring some peace and quiet to their life the following week. Our fans can handle wrong decisions, while other teams' fans constantly hassle them." As this analysis based on findings from Wahre Tabelle shows, Bayern have actually gained two points from refereeing decisions, as they have had two fine goals wrongly disallowed, but scored three goals that should have been ruled out.

The biggest talking-point going into Wednesday's game at Basle, for which Bayern are [1.66] to win (Basle are [6.4]) and [1.13] to progress (with Basle [8.0]) concerns the player whose performances single-handedly inspired them to the 2010 final: Arjen Robben. Bayern are at a delicate stage of contract negotiations with the Dutch winger, whose current deal expires in 2013, and, as if to show that he is not indispensable to the team, he has been benched for the last two matches (the Shaqiri signing also strengthens Bayern's hand).

Bayern's honorary president Franz Beckenbauer waded in to the Robben-debate last week, suggesting that his "selfishness" had cost him "recognition" inside the camp. "At some point the team-mate will say if you're not going to recognise my pass then next time you can come and get the ball yourself", Beckenbauer said. Robben's bosses immediately tried to defuse the situation: Rummenigge said, "Everyone knows he's an important player", while coach Jupp Heynckes said "he's world-class when at his peak".

The worry for Bayern is whether his peak will come this week. Basle have started the spring campaign slowly, with two draws since their winter break was over ­ they needed a last-minute equaliser against Young Boys on Saturday to scrape a 2-2 draw. But they showed against United that they can be dangerous at St-Jakob Park. Former Bayern captain Stefan Effenberg warned that Bayern are lacking in leadership and need the likes of Phillip Lahm and Manuel Neuer to stand up and be counted: this week will be their biggest test.

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Danedream: Arc winner likely for German return

News / Timeform / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Danedream could return in May.

"Everything is fine and she's keeping well..."

Prix de 'Arc de Triomphe winner Danedream is likely to start off her season with a run at home in late spring before trainer Peter Schiergen plots serious European targets...

From humble beginnings, Danedream became the first German-trained winner of France's biggest race since 1975 when shattering the Longchamp track record.

She was unable to maintain the form in the Japan Cup but despite her value as a broodmare with three Group Ones in the bag, the daughter of Lomitas remains in training with Schiergen for her four-year-old career.

Danedream, rated 132 by Timeform, is only in light work at her Cologne stable, but Schiergen said: "Everything is fine and she's keeping well. She is just doing small exercises at the moment.

"I haven't decided quite yet where she will run, but she might start in Germany around the end of May and then she will have a lot of entries in Group races and we can think about France and England."

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German Grand Prix Betting: Three way fight

Formula One / James Frankland / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mark Webber has a great chance of winning after securing his second pole position in a row

"Given that, the choice of victor is not as easy as it might seem, with Vettel available at [3.5], polesitter Webber at [3.9] and Hamilton also at [3.9]. Alonso at [7.0] offers a greater return but I’m not sure Ferrari has enough here to trouble the podium."

We may have a very competitive race ahead of us on Sunday with Hamilton, Webber and Alonso very difficult to split in the betting. The weather, as ever, will play a big part, says James Frankland.

Mark Webber's second consecutive pole position puts him in the driving seat for the German Grand Prix at the Nürburgring, but the determined Aussie shouldn't expect to have it all his own way tomorrow.

The Red Bull driver won his first ever Grand Prix here two years ago, and needs a victory to start cutting into his teammate's 80-point lead in the Drivers Championship. This time around, Red Bull are facing a sterner challenge from a resurgent McLaren, evidenced by Lewis Hamilton splitting the blue cars to take second on the grid, just 0.055s slower than Webber. That dumped Vettel down to third, a position he hasn't seen all season. Silverstone race winner Fernando Alonso muscled his Ferrari into fourth, just two tenths slower than Vettel and will hope for a chance to continue his winning form.

The Nürburgring circuit is one that should favour the Red Bulls given the high number of fast, sweeping corners it possesses, but it also has enough braking and traction zones to bring the Ferraris and McLarens into play, and there are two other factors which could swing the balance in tomorrow's race.

First up is the weather - nestled high in the Eifel Mountains, the circuit has a habit of generating its own weather fronts and is highly unpredictable. Frequently in the past it has rained at one end of the circuit and not the other, which causes team strategists no end of problems. In 2007 we had such a monumental downpour that no fewer than six cars ended up in the same gravel trap at the end of the pit straight, and rain is predicted to arrive in time for the start of the race tomorrow. Given that, the choice of victor is not as easy as it might seem, with Vettel available at [3.5], polesitter Webber at [3.9] and Hamilton also at [3.9]. Alonso at [7.0] offers a greater return but I'm not sure Ferrari has enough here to trouble the podium.

The second factor is tyre strategy, although this may be dependent on whether or not the race is wet, as I'll explain.

If it stays dry, all drivers are required to use both the soft and medium compound tyres at least once during the race. This means that teams will run as much as possible on the softer, faster tyre, before switching to the slower medium compound, usually for the last stint of the race. Occasionally, as Mark Webber demonstrated brilliantly from 18th place in China, it is better to use the harder tyres first, get them out of the way and then use the softer tyres to make up places while others are obligated to use the slower tyre.

This weekend Pirelli have brought much more durable tyres to the race. The soft tyre is said to be capable of doing about 30 laps, compared to 10 - 15 at other races, while the medium tyre will do 100 laps, or nearly twice the race distance, but at a bigger cost in overall speed.

This has caused some teams to debate whether or not to make a stop in the last few laps of the race, to minimise the amount of time spent on the harder tyre and go all-out for the vast majority of the race. Conversely, we may see drivers outside the top ten - who have a free choice of which tyre to start with - starting on the hard tyre, pitting early for the softs and then going as far as possible on those - the Webber strategy. It's debatable whether the soft tyres could do the whole race, but I'd look out for the Sauber drivers who might try something along those lines. Sergio Perez starts 16th, Kamui Kobayashi 18th and both are already attractive at [2.8] for a points finish.

If the race is wet, the requirement to use both compounds of tyre goes out of the window. Everyone will use the softer tyres as soon as the track is dry enough, and it will be down to making the right call as to when to switch that will pay dividends.

Lots to explain, but it sets up a potentially enthralling race. For me, Webber is the man to take the spoils tomorrow. He knows the track well, has special memories of winning here, and is fired up after the team orders row in Silverstone two weeks ago.

Recommended bets:

Mark Webber to win @ [3.9]
Sebastian Vettel to finish on the podium @ [1.39]
Kamui Kobayashi or Sergio Perez to score points @ [2.5]

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