Follow The Money: Hector's House to storm home

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 25 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

16 year-old Brendan Powell rides Hector's House today and that's a big positive

"In the following race, the 16:55, we have seen some good money supporting Hector’s House, for Nikki Evans. He’s now disputing favouritism at 4.8, having been backed at 7.6 earlier on."

Two backs and one lay is the usual order of the day in the ever-popular Follow The Money column.

Welcome to Follow The Money for Saturday 25 February 25. Today's movers come exclusively from Chepstow.

We start with the 13:30 where Ardkilly Gunner has been on the drift all morning. He was backed at [1.82] but now trades at [2.42]. On ratings he sets a clear standard, with little in way of credible opposition. However, this simply looks the wrong race for him based on past evidence. He looks a future staying chaser so today's drop in trip by half a mile surely counts against him. He has also been off the track for three months and one would imagine he's had some sort of problem and connections are looking to sharpen him up before attempting handicaps.

Out next mover comes in the 16:20 where we've seen strong money for Michael Blake's Lamps, who's been backed from [10.5] in to [7.0]. He makes his handicap bow today, having already broke his maiden tag over course and distance. That day he beat a Paul Nicholls hotpot who is now rated in the 120s and he gets in here off 116, so appears nicely handicapped. His last start was disappointing although there's every chance he didn't stay and the way he travelled against horses who are rated 130 plus, shows he's a horse with some amount of ability and he must be highly respected on his handicap debut.

In the following race, the 16:55, we have seen some good money supporting Hector's House, for Nikki Evans. He's now disputing favouritism at [4.8] having been backed at [7.6] earlier on. This is only his third chasing start and although he only has a selling hurdle victory to his name, he's on a mark 2 stone below his highest rating. He tends to reserve his best performances for soft ground, although last time he was very disappointing, finishing last of five. There could be an excuse for that run however, as his previous run was only 20 days after coming back with a puncture wound to his leg on his chase debut, where he more than did himself justice and shaped like he could make a mark in the chasing sphere. The booking of crack conditional Brendan Powell is eye-catching and he looks to have more than a fair chance in this very moderate affair.

Recommended Bets

Lay Ardkilly Gunner @ [2.42] 13:30 Chepstow
Back Lamps @ [7.0] 16:20 Chepstow
Back Hector's House @ [4.8] 16:55 Chepstow

That's all for today. If you're on the move this information is recorded on 0870 90 80 181.

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Lingfield and Sandown....

Welcome to Follow The Money, where today's selections can be found at Huntingdon, Lingfield and Southwell....

Today's movers come from the meetings at Ludlow, Doncaster and Lingfield......

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German Football: Bayern's house not quite in order

German Football / Ben Lyttleton / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Bayern's "world class at his peak" midfielder Arjen Robben

"The prospect of Bayern going a second straight season without the title, for the first time since 1995 and 1996, becomes more likely."

Bayern Munich are facing another season without a league title says Ben Lyttleton, and discontent within the camp might just hinder their Champions League aspirations also.

When the draw for the Champions League Round of 16 was made last December there were sighs of relief in Munich. Bayern, who did well to top the toughest group which contained Napoli, Manchester City, and Villarreal, were drawn against FC Basle, surprise qualifiers ahead of Manchester United, and friends and neighbours of the German giants.

After all, Basle began the season with former Bayern stalwart Thorsten Fink on the bench; his successor Heiko Vogel used to work with Bayern's youth teams; and last month, Bayern signed Basle's playmaker Xherdan Shaqiri, who will move in the summer. It all looked perfect for the team who will host this year's Champions League final ­ and it was why Bayern were backed as third-favourites behind Barcelona and Real Madrid to win the competition.

Fast forward ten weeks and the picture is not so rosy. In the last fortnight, Bayern have dropped four points, going from top to third and they are now four points behind new German leaders Borussia Dortmund. Last week showed that teams often drop points before vital Champions League matches (Lyon, Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen all lost before their midweek ties) but no-one expected Bayern to drop points at bottom-of-the-table Freiburg.

The game finished 0-0 and with Dortmund beating Hertha 1-0 to extend their unbeaten run to 16 games, closing in on a club record 19 from 1991-92, the prospect of Bayern going a second straight season without the title, for the first time since 1995 and 1996, becomes more likely. Dortmund are now [1.85] to win the Bundesliga, with Bayern [2.98]. Borussia Moenchengladbach, one point ahead of Bayern, are [11.0].

You can normally gauge how things are going at Bayern by monitoring which of their top brass is speaking and about what, and last week suggested things are not altogether breezy in Bavaria. First, Franck Ribery declared that, "the second team is not strong enough", suggesting that there is little strength in depth (as Rafi Hongistein explains here, the Shaqiri signing goes some way to solving that
) and he was proved right on Saturday, as David Alaba and Luis Gustavo struggled against Freiburg¹s pressing game.

Then chief executive Karl-Heinz Rummenigge weighed in with a long-winded
criticism of referees showing bias against his club. "Referees are always deciding against Bayern when they are in doubt, because that will bring some peace and quiet to their life the following week. Our fans can handle wrong decisions, while other teams' fans constantly hassle them." As this analysis based on findings from Wahre Tabelle shows, Bayern have actually gained two points from refereeing decisions, as they have had two fine goals wrongly disallowed, but scored three goals that should have been ruled out.

The biggest talking-point going into Wednesday's game at Basle, for which Bayern are [1.66] to win (Basle are [6.4]) and [1.13] to progress (with Basle [8.0]) concerns the player whose performances single-handedly inspired them to the 2010 final: Arjen Robben. Bayern are at a delicate stage of contract negotiations with the Dutch winger, whose current deal expires in 2013, and, as if to show that he is not indispensable to the team, he has been benched for the last two matches (the Shaqiri signing also strengthens Bayern's hand).

Bayern's honorary president Franz Beckenbauer waded in to the Robben-debate last week, suggesting that his "selfishness" had cost him "recognition" inside the camp. "At some point the team-mate will say if you're not going to recognise my pass then next time you can come and get the ball yourself", Beckenbauer said. Robben's bosses immediately tried to defuse the situation: Rummenigge said, "Everyone knows he's an important player", while coach Jupp Heynckes said "he's world-class when at his peak".

The worry for Bayern is whether his peak will come this week. Basle have started the spring campaign slowly, with two draws since their winter break was over ­ they needed a last-minute equaliser against Young Boys on Saturday to scrape a 2-2 draw. But they showed against United that they can be dangerous at St-Jakob Park. Former Bayern captain Stefan Effenberg warned that Bayern are lacking in leadership and need the likes of Phillip Lahm and Manuel Neuer to stand up and be counted: this week will be their biggest test.

Hertha Berlin are in a mess and are looking for their third coach of the season, and leaders Borussia Dortmund are unlikely to show them any mercy this weekend, writes Kevin Hatchard....

Felix Magath is a figure that polarises opinion in German football, but Kevin Hatchard thinks the teak-tough tactician may finally be working his magic at Wolfsburg....

Schalke are in the thick of the title race, and Kevin Hatchard expects them to maintain their momentum against Mainz this weekend....

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Lee Dixon: Manchester United to sort their house out at the Villa

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney should feature up front for Manchester United again on Saturday

"Sir Alex will be expecting a reaction from his players and a much-improved performance after what’s happened in the last week or so and I think he’s going to get one. United should win this."

After a tricky week with indifferent results in three different competitions, Manchester United should return to winning ways when they travel to Villa Park, a venue that has proved to be a happy hunting ground in recent years...

It's been a poor week by Manchester United's standards.

I've praised Newcastle's performance at Old Trafford in my preview of their match against Chelsea already. But whichever way you look at it, that was a match United really should have won if they're going to successfully defend their title. The shock Carling Cup defeat to Crystal Palace was a different story of course because only a couple of the players who started that would possibly feature in Sir Alex's strongest XI. It suggests that maybe there isn't as much talent in reserve at Old Trafford as there has been in yesteryear but that's for him to worry about another day. Let's just focus on this Aston Villa match for the time being.

Match Odds

Aston Villa started the season well and were undefeated for a while but even in those early weeks there were very obvious signs of where their problems lay. They can grind out 0-0 and 1-1 draws with the best of them but don't really have another gear to turn to if they go behind. They're solid and resilient but at times perhaps also lack a little ambition. Seven draws from 13 matches backs that theory up.

Villa Park has been a happy hunting ground for Manchester United over the years. Opta tell us that Man Utd have won 11 times at Villa Park in the Premier League and that only at Everton (14 wins) have they come away with three points more often from an opponent's ground.

Sir Alex will be expecting a reaction from his players and a much-improved performance after what's happened in the last week or so and I think he's going to get one. United should win this.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Gabriel Agbonlahor has been in super form this season, scoring goals, creating chances, running at defenders. Darren Bent has just done what Darren Bent does. Five goals from 12 starts without ever putting in a particularly eye-catching performance. But beyond these two there doesn't seem to be much in the way of attacking threats, either from midfield or on the bench. It's in attack that Alex McCleish needs to start looking for new players in the January transfer window.

United have defended better in the league recently whilst not scoring freely themselves so 'unders' looks a good bet at [1.96].

To Score

After adopting a 'horses for courses' approach and playing Wayne Rooney in midfield for a couple of matches last month, Sir Alex restored the former Everton man to his attack on Saturday against Newcastle.

The goals have dried up recently for Rooney but he'll enjoy running at the two Aston Villa centre-backs who have plenty in terms of strength and aerial ability but far less in terms of pace. I fancy Rooney to re-discover his scoring boots on Saturday afternoon.

2 pts Back Manchester United to win @ [1.77]
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.96]
1pt Back Wayne Rooney to score @ [2.3]

Feizal Rahman previews three of Saturday's Premier League fixtures using the Opta stats, and believes goals will be the order of the day as Manchester City look to extend their lead at the top of the table....

Forget the hype, reputation and star names in Chelsea's line-up. It is Newcastle who are at home, look the more organised side and are carrying the greater momentum, says Lee Dixon....

Gareth Purnell can't make any case for Aston Villa beating Manchester United on Saturday and believes a lay on the home side is a banker selection....

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Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Carlton House to gain compensation

Irish 1-2-3 / Stuart Jones / 26 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Carlton House: Compensation awaits today

"Carlton House may have finished behind Treasure Beach at Epsom but he was poorly
placed in relation to that rival and is a confident selection to reverse those placings".

Three selections for Irish Derby Day at the Curragh

The Group 3 Sapphire Stakes may have only attracted a small field, but there looks to be bags of early speed on with Inxile, Arctic, Calm Bay and Hamish McGonagall all ridden from the front, and they could help tee things up for Invincible Ash (15.10). Mick Halford's sprinter hit a rich vein of form in 2010, winning four times in all, and held her form well in Dubai earlier this year. A recent outing at Leopardstown should have sharpened her up after a break and she's worth chancing at [5.7].

Carlton House (15.50) may have finished behind Treasure Beach at Epsom but he was poorly placed in relation to that rival and is a confident selection to reverse those placings. He proved too strong for Seville in the Dante prior to finishing third in English equivalent of this race, doing well to get as close to Pour Moi as he did given how things panned out. Things should be a lot more straightforward in this and compensation surely awaits.

Creekside (17.00) is progressing with experience and this scopey sort is expected to continue his rise through the ranks with victory on his first start in listed company. There was plenty to like about the way he got the job done on debut in a big-field maiden at Naas and he's gone the right way since, defying top-weight impressively at Leopardstown on latest, beating Estithmaar by two and a half lengths. Far less exposed than the majority in this and already sets a good standard.

Recommendations

back Invincible Ash @ [5.7] in the 15.10
back Carlton House @ [2.28] in the 15.50
back Creekside @ [8.2] in the 17.00

Three win selections for day two of the Curragh's Derby meeting.......

We have got three to back on the first day of the Irish Derby Festival at the Curragh........

More Flat action in Ireland tonight, this time the venue is Tipperary........

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The Derby: Is Carlton House a back or a lay?"

Timeform Features / Simon Rowlands / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Have people got carried away with Carlton House's Dante win?

"...the “vibes” from all connected with Carlton House are better than at a Beach Boys reunion concert."

Our blogger sides against The Queen in the big one, assuming we all survive long enough to see the race!

In case you were not aware of it, the end of the world has been put back from 21 May 2011 to 21 October 2011, according to Harold "Carry On" Camping, the US evangelist who did a very passable impression of a gambler chasing his losses once the former date passed without incident.

That is good news for anyone looking forward to The Derby at Epsom and Champions' Day at Ascot, but it is bad news for those of us who will have to cough up in advance for London 2012 Olympics tickets with no chance of seeing any of the events.

Fortunately, The Final Derby Before Rapture - as I like to refer to it - looks like being a good one to go out on. There are some promising types and some horses with very smart form. And there is at least one horse who is both promising and very smart.
That horse is Carlton House, who dominates the Betfair ante-post market at around 2.6 after his ready victory over Seville in the Dante Stakes at York. There is even talk that Carlton House could go off at odds on at Epsom on 4 June. Carlton House is, after all, owned by The Queen, and a win would be hugely popular with not just those who back the horse.

The question is "have people got carried away in this instance?" My answer is "probably". Betting and sentiment are uncomfortable bedfellows.
Carlton House brings to mind another Dante winner in Tenby, who went off odds on at Epsom in 1993 and finished just tenth. Tenby was not that bad, as he showed by finishing third in the Eclipse next time, but he should not have been an odds-on shot either. It was difficult to warm to any of his rivals and he became an overwhelming choice almost by default.

I say all this with the considerable benefit of hindsight, of course!

Carlton House's claims are convincing enough, if you are convinced by a runaway win in a maiden and a ready success in what was a messy Dante. There is plenty of stamina on his dam's side and he could even improve for a longer trip. He is trained by Sir Michael Stoute and will be ridden by Ryan Moore: you could not hope for a better combination than that.

What's more the "vibes" from all connected with Carlton House are better than at a Beach Boys reunion concert.

Then again, the bare form of that Dante win is not exceptional, with the useful-but-no-better Pisco Sour only four lengths back in third. Carlton House has not encountered ground firmer than good, let alone a track remotely like the rollercoaster he will be taking on in just over a week's time. He also showed signs of temperament before loading at York.

His likely rivals include Seville (no lost cause at all in a race run at a truer pace), the smart and progressive French colt Pour Moi, the Guineas third Native Khan (a son of Azamour, though more speedily bred on the dam's side) and the talented if quirky Recital.

Are you still keen on The Queen's horse at such a short price? No, me neither.

Fortunately, unlike in Tenby's day, we don't have to land on the winner among Carlton House's rivals: we have Betfair now and can just lay Carlton House and leave it at that.
If you think that Carlton House has a less than 38% chance of winning a Derby that still has 22 hopefuls entered then you should consider "clicking on pink" and doing just that. I have.
.....

Stamina is usually more important for The Oaks and The Derby than some have been implying, though a slow pace can make it otherwise. The opening half mile of the mile-and-a-half trip is as testing as you will find anywhere in Britain.

This may catch out a few in both races, but hopefully it will not catch out Stoute's Havant in The Oaks, which will be run on 3 June. She is a half-sister by Halling to a two-mile winner and to the high-class twelve-furlong winner Leadership.

She has nearly six lengths to make up on Blue Bunting from the One Thousand Guineas (which the latter won), but that looks by no means out of the question at this trip. Havant can be backed at 6.6 for a win on Betfair, and place odds of over 2.5 are, if anything, even more enticing.

That's the way I see it, anyway. I just hope my predictions are more accurate than Harold Camping's proved to be (and hopefully will continue to be....)

Haydock stage a top-quality card for the second week running, the highlight of which is Saturday's Timeform Jury Stakes. Timeform's Paul Robson runs the rule over the field......

In a Royal wedding year, will the crowds at Epsom be cheering home a Derby winner owned by the reigning monarch? Timeform run the rule over the main contenders for the Blue Riband on June 4......

Sir Michael Stoute's 2010 Derby and Arc hero Workforce is set to return at Sandown on Thursday, but will he have it all his own way as he attempts to concede weight all round?......

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Full House Poker Coming March

On 16th March Xbox LIVE will release the highly anticipated Full House Poker game. The Xbox LIVE  game will cost 800 Microsoft Points.  The game will allow poker players to connect on Xbox 360 and via mobile platform Windows Phone 7. The game allows online poker play for fun, everything from heads up two player games to massive big 30-player tournaments. In addition there will be Texas Heat, a live poker game show in the vein of 1 vs 100, where players will compete with thousands of players worldwide.

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