Timeform Features 
/ Simon Rowlands / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Have people got carried away with Carlton House's Dante win?
"...the “vibes” from all connected with Carlton House are better than at a Beach Boys reunion concert."
Our blogger sides against The Queen in the big one, assuming we all survive long enough to see the race!
In case you were not aware of it, the end of the world has been put back from 21 May 2011 to 21 October 2011, according to Harold "Carry On" Camping, the US evangelist who did a very passable impression of a gambler chasing his losses once the former date passed without incident.
That is good news for anyone looking forward to The Derby at Epsom and Champions' Day at Ascot, but it is bad news for those of us who will have to cough up in advance for London 2012 Olympics tickets with no chance of seeing any of the events.
Fortunately, The Final Derby Before Rapture - as I like to refer to it - looks like being a good one to go out on. There are some promising types and some horses with very smart form. And there is at least one horse who is both promising and very smart.
That horse is Carlton House, who dominates the Betfair ante-post market at around 2.6 after his ready victory over Seville in the Dante Stakes at York. There is even talk that Carlton House could go off at odds on at Epsom on 4 June. Carlton House is, after all, owned by The Queen, and a win would be hugely popular with not just those who back the horse.
The question is "have people got carried away in this instance?" My answer is "probably". Betting and sentiment are uncomfortable bedfellows.
Carlton House brings to mind another Dante winner in Tenby, who went off odds on at Epsom in 1993 and finished just tenth. Tenby was not that bad, as he showed by finishing third in the Eclipse next time, but he should not have been an odds-on shot either. It was difficult to warm to any of his rivals and he became an overwhelming choice almost by default.
I say all this with the considerable benefit of hindsight, of course!
Carlton House's claims are convincing enough, if you are convinced by a runaway win in a maiden and a ready success in what was a messy Dante. There is plenty of stamina on his dam's side and he could even improve for a longer trip. He is trained by Sir Michael Stoute and will be ridden by Ryan Moore: you could not hope for a better combination than that.
What's more the "vibes" from all connected with Carlton House are better than at a Beach Boys reunion concert.
Then again, the bare form of that Dante win is not exceptional, with the useful-but-no-better Pisco Sour only four lengths back in third. Carlton House has not encountered ground firmer than good, let alone a track remotely like the rollercoaster he will be taking on in just over a week's time. He also showed signs of temperament before loading at York.
His likely rivals include Seville (no lost cause at all in a race run at a truer pace), the smart and progressive French colt Pour Moi, the Guineas third Native Khan (a son of Azamour, though more speedily bred on the dam's side) and the talented if quirky Recital.
Are you still keen on The Queen's horse at such a short price? No, me neither.
Fortunately, unlike in Tenby's day, we don't have to land on the winner among Carlton House's rivals: we have Betfair now and can just lay Carlton House and leave it at that.
If you think that Carlton House has a less than 38% chance of winning a Derby that still has 22 hopefuls entered then you should consider "clicking on pink" and doing just that. I have.
.....
Stamina is usually more important for The Oaks and The Derby than some have been implying, though a slow pace can make it otherwise. The opening half mile of the mile-and-a-half trip is as testing as you will find anywhere in Britain.
This may catch out a few in both races, but hopefully it will not catch out Stoute's Havant in The Oaks, which will be run on 3 June. She is a half-sister by Halling to a two-mile winner and to the high-class twelve-furlong winner Leadership.
She has nearly six lengths to make up on Blue Bunting from the One Thousand Guineas (which the latter won), but that looks by no means out of the question at this trip. Havant can be backed at 6.6 for a win on Betfair, and place odds of over 2.5 are, if anything, even more enticing.
That's the way I see it, anyway. I just hope my predictions are more accurate than Harold Camping's proved to be (and hopefully will continue to be....)
Haydock stage a top-quality card for the second week running, the highlight of which is Saturday's Timeform Jury Stakes. Timeform's Paul Robson runs the rule over the field......
In a Royal wedding year, will the crowds at Epsom be cheering home a Derby winner owned by the reigning monarch? Timeform run the rule over the main contenders for the Blue Riband on June 4......
Sir Michael Stoute's 2010 Derby and Arc hero Workforce is set to return at Sandown on Thursday, but will he have it all his own way as he attempts to concede weight all round?......
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