Formula One 
/ James Frankland / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Mark Webber has a great chance of winning after securing his second pole position in a row
"Given that, the choice of victor is not as easy as it might seem, with Vettel available at [3.5], polesitter Webber at [3.9] and Hamilton also at [3.9]. Alonso at [7.0] offers a greater return but I’m not sure Ferrari has enough here to trouble the podium."
We may have a very competitive race ahead of us on Sunday with Hamilton, Webber and Alonso very difficult to split in the betting. The weather, as ever, will play a big part, says James Frankland.
Mark Webber's second consecutive pole position puts him in the driving seat for the German Grand Prix at the Nürburgring, but the determined Aussie shouldn't expect to have it all his own way tomorrow.
The Red Bull driver won his first ever Grand Prix here two years ago, and needs a victory to start cutting into his teammate's 80-point lead in the Drivers Championship. This time around, Red Bull are facing a sterner challenge from a resurgent McLaren, evidenced by Lewis Hamilton splitting the blue cars to take second on the grid, just 0.055s slower than Webber. That dumped Vettel down to third, a position he hasn't seen all season. Silverstone race winner Fernando Alonso muscled his Ferrari into fourth, just two tenths slower than Vettel and will hope for a chance to continue his winning form.
The Nürburgring circuit is one that should favour the Red Bulls given the high number of fast, sweeping corners it possesses, but it also has enough braking and traction zones to bring the Ferraris and McLarens into play, and there are two other factors which could swing the balance in tomorrow's race.
First up is the weather - nestled high in the Eifel Mountains, the circuit has a habit of generating its own weather fronts and is highly unpredictable. Frequently in the past it has rained at one end of the circuit and not the other, which causes team strategists no end of problems. In 2007 we had such a monumental downpour that no fewer than six cars ended up in the same gravel trap at the end of the pit straight, and rain is predicted to arrive in time for the start of the race tomorrow. Given that, the choice of victor is not as easy as it might seem, with Vettel available at [3.5], polesitter Webber at [3.9] and Hamilton also at [3.9]. Alonso at [7.0] offers a greater return but I'm not sure Ferrari has enough here to trouble the podium.
The second factor is tyre strategy, although this may be dependent on whether or not the race is wet, as I'll explain.
If it stays dry, all drivers are required to use both the soft and medium compound tyres at least once during the race. This means that teams will run as much as possible on the softer, faster tyre, before switching to the slower medium compound, usually for the last stint of the race. Occasionally, as Mark Webber demonstrated brilliantly from 18th place in China, it is better to use the harder tyres first, get them out of the way and then use the softer tyres to make up places while others are obligated to use the slower tyre.
This weekend Pirelli have brought much more durable tyres to the race. The soft tyre is said to be capable of doing about 30 laps, compared to 10 - 15 at other races, while the medium tyre will do 100 laps, or nearly twice the race distance, but at a bigger cost in overall speed.
This has caused some teams to debate whether or not to make a stop in the last few laps of the race, to minimise the amount of time spent on the harder tyre and go all-out for the vast majority of the race. Conversely, we may see drivers outside the top ten - who have a free choice of which tyre to start with - starting on the hard tyre, pitting early for the softs and then going as far as possible on those - the Webber strategy. It's debatable whether the soft tyres could do the whole race, but I'd look out for the Sauber drivers who might try something along those lines. Sergio Perez starts 16th, Kamui Kobayashi 18th and both are already attractive at [2.8] for a points finish.
If the race is wet, the requirement to use both compounds of tyre goes out of the window. Everyone will use the softer tyres as soon as the track is dry enough, and it will be down to making the right call as to when to switch that will pay dividends.
Lots to explain, but it sets up a potentially enthralling race. For me, Webber is the man to take the spoils tomorrow. He knows the track well, has special memories of winning here, and is fired up after the team orders row in Silverstone two weeks ago.
Recommended bets:
Mark Webber to win @ [3.9]
Sebastian Vettel to finish on the podium @ [1.39]
Kamui Kobayashi or Sergio Perez to score points @ [2.5]
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