Grand National: Why you should trust Cheltenham form at Aintree

Features / Simon Rowlands / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

The stats bode well for Synchronised

"And Cheltenham winners fared best of all, having a median performance rating of just 8 below their pre-race master ratings."

Timeform's Head of Research and Development Simon Rowlands explains why Cheltenham form should be trusted this week and offers a couple of value bets on the Aintree "Specials" markets...

I am not a great believer in tradition on the whole. But it has its uses, and the predictable traditions of racing are something that can at least be turned to the punter's advantage.

The Grand National is not what it once was - there are no brick walls these days for a start - and I for one am pleased of that fact. But changes have tended to come gradually, and changes to Aintree's overall Grand National meeting have come more gradually still.

As a result, it is possible to come to such an occasion cold but with a good general idea of what to expect, as tradition ensures that history should hold some valuable lessons for us.

One of those lessons is the ability - or otherwise - of horses who ran well at the Cheltenham Festival to follow up just a few weeks later. Plenty have failed, and received wisdom might have you imagine that Aintree is a graveyard for horses coming on from the Cheltenham Festival. It is not.

The ever-readable James Pyman in Racing Post made this very point recently, concluding "since 2005, simply backing runners at Aintree who had posted a top-three finish at the Cheltenham festival on their previous outings would have led to 43 winners from 224 bets and a £1 level-stake profit of £37.89".

This tallies with my own findings, though stats can be distorted by the means of measurement employed, so I decided to have a closer look at the records from just the last three years.

"Actual against expected performance", as judged by a comparison between a horse's Timeform master rating pre-race and its Timeform performance rating in the race itself, provides further compelling evidence.

Horses that had last run at the Cheltenham Festival performed marginally better at Aintree than those that had come by a different route (median of 19 below and 22 below expectation respectively).

Those that had finished in the first three last time at Cheltenham fared better still (median of 14 below expectation). And Cheltenham winners fared best of all, having a median performance rating of just 8 below their pre-race master ratings. That is much better than for the wider horse population.

This has not been reflected fully in those horses' odds, either. A variable stake at Betfair SP (that is, more is theoretically staked on shorter-priced horses than on outsiders, thus limiting the effect of "fluke" events) saw Cheltenham winners handsomely in profit. Cheltenham runners-up sneaked into the black also.

Cheltenham and Aintree present rather different tests for horses, and this factor should not be ignored. But, otherwise, there is little evidence to support the contention that a good run at the former can be expected to compromise the chance of a good run at the latter.

And that could well be even more the case this year than usual, with an extra week's break between the two occasions.

..........
Tradition and history also make it easier to tackle special bets at the marquee events, as anyone who has done so at Cheltenham should appreciate.

There are just two such markets up on Betfair at the time of writing - Longest Winning SP and Winning Distance (Odds) - but they both make plenty of appeal to my mind.

The below table shows the history of these markets this century, with winning margins adjusted to allow for differences in means of returning those margins and a small increase in the number of races (there will be 21 again at this year's Aintree Grand National meeting).

With the going currently forecast to be "Good, Good to soft in places on the Grand National course", the years since 2002 seem to be our best guide to win margins.

Crunching the numbers led me to estimate a cumulative figure over the three days of around 112 lengths, which is comfortably inside the highest category available (over 105 lengths).

Frequencies of win odds this century were: 229 at under 33/1; 14 at 33/1 to 50/1; and 3 (all of which came in 2009) at over 50/1. This implies a probability of around 55% that the highest winning SP will fall into the middle - 33/1 to 50/1 - range which has provided the "winner" in 10 of those 12 years.

Special bets proved to be a nice money-spinner for followers of this blog at Cheltenham. Here's hoping that, like some of the equine protagonists, we can also back up our efforts from there!

Recommendations

Back "33/1 to 50/1 inclusive longest winning SP" 3 pts at [2.0] or longer
Back "more than 105 lengths cumulative winning margins" 2 pts at [2.0] or longer

The victory of the Donald McCain-trained Ballabriggs in last year's Grand National allowed Trevor Hemmings the opportunity to fully take in winning the world's greatest chase......

The Grand National is renowned for vast amounts of money being wagered across the country, with huge gambles being part of the folklore and romance surrounding the world's most famous chase......

Prior to last year, Jason Maguire had almost seemed destined to join jockeys such as Jamie Goldstein, Tom Jenks and Andy Adams who all missed out on their one real chance of glory in the Grand National....

Amazon Watches Center

Champions League Multiple: Trust in Real Madrid's defence

Champions League / Michael Lintorn / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sergio Ramos is part of a defence yet to concede in the Champions League

"Dinamo Zagreb are the sole side without a group-stage goal to their name."

Shaky domestically yet solid in Europe, having faith in Real Madrid's backline frustrating Dinamo Zagreb may be the secret to multiple success on Tuesday night...

CSKA Moscow v Lille (17:00, Sky Sports 2)
There are certain scenarios in which Lille can extend their wait for their first victory tonight and still qualify, but the reality of the situation is that they desperately need three points on the board, and that necessity should contribute to a goal-heavy affair. The initial clash in France finished 2-2 and the hosts have the most prolific attack in Group B, whereas the visitors possess the weakest defence.
Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [2.2]

Otelul Galati v FC Basel (19:45, Sky Sports Red Button)
Despite being stranded at the bottom of Group C without a point, Otelul Galati's debut Champions League campaign has been no disaster, and things could be different had they not conceded three penalties and an own goal in their first four games. They are heading out though while FC Basel have it all to play for and a nine-match unbeaten run on the road to defend, which includes four wins in five.
Recommended Bet: FC Basel to win @ [1.87]

Real Madrid v Dinamo Zagreb (19:45, Sky Sports Red Button)
Though three points clear at the top of the table, Real Madrid have one of the worst home defensive records in La Liga. However, for no obvious reason, they have avoided such frailty in the Champions League and are the only team yet to concede. Given that in Dinamo Zagreb they are facing the sole side without a goal to their name, the case for opposing both teams to score is a very strong one.
Recommended Bet: Both teams to score? No @ [1.54]

A treble combining those suggested wagers using the Betfair Coupon provides odds of [5.82], so for a £10 stake, you would record a £48.20 profit if they all deliver.

If you trawl through the record books you'll see that predicting which teams will be the last two standing in the Champions League this year, is actually easier than it looks. So bet accordingly, says Matthew Walton....

After a rare Serie A victory on Saturday, Michael Lintorn is backing Inter to march on in Europe with three points away to Trabzonspor......

Ajax head to France in a position of power in Group D, however judging by their recent form, things are unlikely to look so rosy come full-time......

Play Casino & Poker here

The Punter's Live Golf Blog: The Avantha Masters and the Northern Trust Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

A real pea-souper in New Delhi this morning

“Jaidee hit a floodlight with his tee-shot, and then his second shot ricocheted off the floodlight and out of bounds. He then did the same thing again and looking in big trouble, was matched at [200.0].”

Fog delays the start in India, as Thongchai Jaidee takes 11 strokes to make a bogey...

15.15- February 17, 2011

Not much to report so far at the Avantha Masters, after a three-and-a-half hour fog delay in New Delhi put the event back somewhat. The morning starters have all got round now though and the best of mine is Chapchai Nirat, who, playing the back nine first, rallied well to reach four under par - two shots off the lead held by Robert Jan Derksen.

The most noteworthy incident of this morning's action was Thongchai Jaidee's play on the par four fifth. He hit a floodlight with his tee-shot, and then his second shot ricocheted off the floodlight and out of bounds. He did the same thing again before hacking up towards the green with his sixth shot. Looking in big trouble, he was matched at [200.00].

It was only once he was alongside the green, preparing to chip on with his seventh shot that the referee with the group was made aware of the local rule stating that if you hit any floodlight with your tee-shot, you have to play the shot again. What a reprieve!

Jaidee went back to the tee, from where he made bogey, and it rejuvenated his whole round. He finished with a flurry of birdies after that and is now right back in contention on -3.

As I'd suspected in my preview, Phil Mickelson has been given an afternoon tee time at the Northern Trust Open, so I'll be monitoring him closely tonight and I'll be back tomorrow to reveal whether I took the plunge on him or not.

Pre-Event Picks

Avantha Masters:

Prayad Marksaeng @ [70.0]
Rickard Karlberg @ [80.0]
Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ [90.0]
Marcel Siem @ [110.0]
Chapchai Nirat @ [200.0]

Northern Trust Open:

Bubba Watson @ [46.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [100.0]
Y E Yang @ [110.0]
Mark Wilson @ [110.0]
Zach Johnson @ [160.0]
Fred Couples @an average of [250.0]

Fog delays the start in India, as Thongchai Jaidee takes 11 strokes to make a bogey......

Our man picks out a moustache sporting New Delhi hat-trick seeker and in the States, he surprisingly swerves his favourite player......

Quiros pulls of the most unlikely of wins in Dubai and Bill Murray points D A to victory at the AT & T........

Play Casino & Poker here

PGA Tour Betting: Three Against the Field at the Northern Trust Open

Three Against The Field / Dan Geraghty / 16 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Luke Donald continue his excellent 2010 performances?

"Luke Donald has picked the right tournament to return and, despite not having won as often as he should have, [25.0] looks fair."

Dan Geraghty selects a trio of promising outsiders at this week's PGA event but beware of Lefty...

There are some big names lurking way down the betting this week. It appears a number of players are in the US warming up for next week's Matchplay.

Ryo Ishikawa will be involved next week but that is not to say we shouldn't back him this week. Ishikawa is a winner and winning is a habit; the bashful prince has already triumphed 10 times so far. He's played here twice before and that course knowledge will be a big help. Ryo is playing with fellow Japanese players Imada and Ikeda during the first two rounds and that should help. It's a big ask but [220.00] is a fantastic price.

Luke Donald had a great 2010 culminating in his standout performance at the Ryder Cup. He makes his 2011 debut at a tournament that has seen him finish third (2008), sixth (2009) and second last year. He's picked the right tournament to return and despite not having won as often as he should have, his price [25.0] looks fair to me. His first round playing partners (Mickelson and Casey) have it all to do to keep up.

Marc Leishman has caught my eye in recent weeks. Considering some of the prices on offer in this week's excellent field, at first glance the young Australian's [130.00] looks a little skinny. That's testament to his solid start to the season: four cuts made, 10 rounds (from 16) in the 60's and four solid finishes. Leishman was 15th here last year on his debut in the event and it'd be no surprise to see him build on that.

Dangers: Phil Mickelson has looked threatening at his last few tournaments and having won two of the last three Northern Trust Opens, he's always going to be a danger here. I think Alex Prugh is due a good finish and there's no reason why it won't be here, where he finished 10th last year. Louis Oosthuizen is another whose price could look huge come Sunday, there are some brave layers offering triple figures for the runaway winner of last years Open.

Selections: Ryo Ishikawa [220.00], Luke Donald [25.0], Marc Lieshman [130.00]

Dan Geraghty selects a trio of promising outsiders at this week's PGA event but beware of Lefty......

Dan gives DJ a second chance and sides with a pair of revitalised old-timers in this week's Three Against The Field column...

The big man with a big swing is Dan Geraghty's headline tip in this week's Three Against the Field column...

Play Casino & Poker here

The Punter's picks for the Avantha Masters and the Northern Trust Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 15 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Bubba Watson – One of the Punter’s picks at Riviera

“Bubba’s improving all the time for my money and a second win looks inevitable in 2011; let’s get it out of the way nice and quickly.”

Our man picks out a moustache sporting New Delhi hat-trick seeker and in the States, he surprisingly swerves his favourite player....

I was sorry to see the end of the Gulf Swing, where sane viewing times and upheld course form resulted in an enjoyable and profitably four week stretch. It's all rather different this week though, as the Race to Dubai takes a pretty drastic dip in quality with the tri-sanctioned Avantha Masters in India. Asian and Indian Tour members will do battle with European Tour stalwarts at the DLF Golf and Country Club in New Delhi and although it looks a tricky puzzle to solve I've drawn on happy memories of last year's renewal, when I dug out winner Andrew Dodt at the juicy odds of [80.0]. Let's see if I can repeat the feat!

There were a number of Asian Tour players that caught the eye and Mike's main man Gaganjeet Bhullar was top of the list but I felt I just couldn't back him at less than [40.0], especially considering I took [460.0] about him in Hong Kong just three months ago! Towards the head of the market Thongchai Jaidee looks a fair price if, and it's a fairly big if, you can forgive last week's missed cut.

Given the quality of the field and the fact that the event will be played out throughout the earlier hours, especially over the first two days, I've not gone mad by any means and all of my picks are for modest stakes at big prices.

My first selection is Thai veteran Prayad Marksaeng. He missed the cut here last year but he's got a bit of course form from years ago and most importantly, he's found something with his putter just lately.

Rickard Karlberg looks like a star of the future and an entertaining one at that. His website's well worth a gander and his frequent updates show that he's probably a bit of a character. He'll be sporting a new moustache this week and that's all because he spoke more Swedish than his caddy on the back nine of last Sunday's final round in Dubai! Of course backing someone because they've lost a facial hair wager with their bag-rat is not particularly scientific nor is it the reason I'm backing Rick. He impressed me greatly when he finished in a tie for third alongside Graeme McDowell at the prestigious Singapore Masters and he's already played in New Delhi twice, and won twice! He finished third on last year's Asian Tour money-list and that was largely due to victories at the Sail Open in April and the Hero Honda Indian Open as recently as December.

I've also backed Marcel Siem, who was a pick last year when he led after day one and a couple of Thai favourites of mine in promising youngster Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Chapchai Nirat.

Selections:

Prayad Marksaeng @ [70.0]
Rickard Karlberg @ [80.0]
Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ [90.0]
Marcel Siem @ [110.0]
Chapchai Nirat @ [200.0]

The US event is where the quality lies this week and the Northern Trust Open has yet again attracted a strong field. Strong enough for me to swerve my ole mate Phil Mickelson, which will certainly surprise fellow columnist Paul Krishnamurty.

As Paul points out, I'm a huge Lefty fan and whilst I take issue with the title of his piece, as I'd gladly take [10.0], or [9.8] if we're being picky, about the Augusta specialist in the US Masters each year, for once I'm in agreement re Phil the Thrill.

Yes he has great course form here but he also has a fine record at both Pebble Beach and Phoenix.... When he pitched up in Phoenix a fortnight ago it was off the back of very decent effort at the Farmers Insurance Open - where he finished 2nd at the generous sp of above [20.0]. I took [19.0] but he was friendless after I'd backed him. I took [9.2] in Phoenix, where he lost the plot after halfway and after much deliberation, against weaker opposition, I took [10.5] last week.

He may have topped the GIR (Greens in Regulation) stats last week but, unusually for him, he scrambled poorly and he's been woeful with the putter for the last two weeks. Add to that the fact that I fancy he'll get an afternoon tee time on Thursday to suit the TV boys and I can't see any value at around [9.0]. I'm hoping for that afternoon start on day one now and if it materialises I'm confident I can comfortably beat his current price in-running because I'll still want him onside to some degree.

And I'm also in agreement with Paul re a couple of his picks. I very nearly backed Anthony Kim but felt he was just a fraction short but the same can't be said about Bubba Watson. He looks to have the ideal game for Riviera and I was so impressed with him at Torrey Pines when he held off Lefty. Two missed cuts sandwich two top-20 finishes here but I expect an improvement this week - Bubba's improving all the time for my money and a second win looks inevitable in 2011; let's get it out of the way nice and quickly.

It's already falling in India and rain's also forecasted here and in the past that's when the less obvious results have occurred at Riviera, so all my other picks are at triple-figure odds.

Louis Oosthuizen's putting was so bad in Qatar the other week that I thought I'd be swerving him for some time but with the forecast rain, finding fairways will be at a premium and at [100.0] his accurate game could prosper and he's just about worth risking.

Y E Yang was a pick last time out in Phoenix, where he made the top-ten, and also in this event last year, when he finished 15th and Mark Wilson looked overpriced given he's going for a third win in five starts and that his game really should fit the venue.

Zach Johnson doesn't have the greatest of records here but was too big at [160.0] and finally, the damp weather will probably be against Fred Couples, but ole Boom Boom's record here is magnificent and I couldn't leave him out.

Selections:

Bubba Watson @ [46.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [100.0]
Y E Yang @ [110.0]
Mark Wilson @ [110.0]
Zach Johnson @ [160.0]
Fred Couples @an average of [250.0]

I'll kick off the Live Golf Blog on Thursday afternoon.

Our man picks out a moustache sporting New Delhi hat-trick seeker and in the States, he surprisingly swerves his favourite player.......

Quiros pulls of the most unlikely of wins in Dubai and Bill Murray points D A to victory at the AT & T........

Alvaro puts the Punter through the mill but it was all worth it in the end........

Play Casino & Poker here