US Masters 
/ Mike Norman / 28 March 2011 / 1 Comments 
Tiger Woods is the favourite to win this year’s US Masters and claim his fifth green jacket
"In winning four times at Augusta National, Tiger’s stroke average is 68.375. Since his return last year he has averaged close to 71.2 on the PGA Tour – that’s almost 12 strokes per tournament below his winning form here."
Mike Norman has been quite vocal in opposing Tiger Woods since he returned to the game, and now he is pleading for your help to explain why the great man is favourite to win next week's US Masters.
There aren't many people who have lived in the world who are instantly recognisable by name to almost every adult human being. Elvis Presley and Michael Jackson were two such people, and perhaps also are Princess Diana and Marilyn Monroe. And from the sporting world we can add the likes of Pele and Muhammad Ali to that list.
And of course, who hasn't heard of Tiger Woods?
Even my girlfriend has heard of Tiger, and she is someone who knows so little about what's going on in the world that she still thinks a Chilean miner is a kid that hasn't wrapped up properly!
Now, unless you were on a different planet a year ago you'll know that Mr Woods went through a pretty traumatic time off the golf course. But what about on the golf course? If you're not an avid follower of golf, but like so many people you love having a punt on the US Masters (it's how I got into golf betting), then Tiger will be the first name that springs to mind. You'll notice that he is still ranked amongst the world's top-five players, you'll remember that he has a fantastic record round Augusta National, and you'll see that he is the current [10.0] favourite to don his fifth green jacket next Sunday evening.
But the picture I've just painted above is very murky; a much clearer picture is painted below.
The Official Golf World Rankings are calculated on a player's previous two years of performances, so in Tiger's case, his five PGA Tour wins (and three second place finishes) between June 2009 and news breaking about his personal life are calculated in the rankings you see today.
Since Tiger returned to golfing action this time last year he has very rarely hit the heights he did pre-scandal. In fact, based on his performances in 2010 alone Tiger ranked number 41 in the world for that calendar year. And it doesn't get any better this year. So far in 2011, more than 75 players have accumulated more ranking points than Tiger. Effectively then, the great man - who is currently ranked number five in the world remember - is languishing somewhere outside the world's top 50 if you compile a list based on everyone's performances from January 2010 onwards.
So what about course form? Some will argue - me included - that course form is vital in golf betting. But the key is that it is only vital when a golfer is playing to a similar standard as at the time when a certain course gave him an edge. Tiger is not playing to the standard he was 18 months ago - nowhere near it in fact - so therefore his previous record at the Masters is easily overlooked. In winning four times at Augusta National, Tiger's stroke average is 68.375. Since his return last year he has averaged close to 71.2 on the PGA Tour - that's almost 12 strokes per tournament below his winning scores in Georgia.
And remember, Tiger also has an incredible record at Firestone Country Club (seven wins) and at Bay Hill (six wins), but in his current guise he finished 78th and 24th respectively at those venues.
Tiger's personal problems have undoubtedly contributed to his regression, and whether or not he brought those problems on himself, I will never criticise him for that. What many will criticise him for however is his decision to change his golf swing. True, it's not the finished article yet but Tiger is driving the ball appallingly at times. He ranks just 187th in Driving Accuracy, one of the key stats you look at when selecting a likely US Masters winner.
And of the other key stats required next week Tiger ranks just 105th in Putting - for so many years the strongest part of his game - and 135th in Sand Saves.
Put simply, Tiger is normal again. He is about the 50th best player in the world on form shown since early last year; he is averaging close to 12 shots per tournament worse than his previous winning US Masters scores; he has recently played poorly at venues where he was previously brilliant; he hasn't won in 20 competitive tournaments; and his 2011 PGA Tour stats don't inspire any confidence whatsoever.
Yet Tiger Woods is the [10.0] favourite to win one of the most hotly-contested golf tournaments of the season. I'm relying on you good people to please tell me why.
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