The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 28 March 2011 / 1 Comments 
The Scottish flag draped proudly behind the 17th tee as Laird tees off
“If you fancy backing a Brit to cheer on, who’s in great heart and could just pull off a biggy, there are worse bets than Justin for the US Masters right now.”
It's not been a great week for our man, as both round three leaders hang on to win but Steve's looking forward to Augusta now, where Rose may just be a value bet...
We witnessed a rare Scottish double this weekend, as Paul Lawrie recovered from a dreadful start to record his first success in nine years and Martin Laird somehow recovered from an even worse start to win in Florida. Laird showed great determination in the end but his victory wasn't without a slice of fortune. He traded odds on early on, before drifting right out to double-figures when looking beat.
Five over par for the day and clearly on the ropes, his second shot on the par-5 12th hit the lip of a fairway bunker yet still found the green, from where he made birdie and never looked back. An inch lower and the balls buried and Marino wins. By such small margins titles are decided.
Elsewhere in the world of golf, it was nice to see Kiradech Aphibarnrat win his first Asian Tour title and Brett Wetterich' s long journey back from injury end in success on the Nationwide Tour - the PGA Tour's feeder Tour.
My Bets
With two leaderboards that I felt looked a bit iffy, I quietly fancied my chances going into yesterday but it wasn't to be.
At the Open de Andalucía, pre-event pick Jose Manuel Lara looked to be in just the right spot, tucked in behind the dodgy looking leading pack, but his irons were anything but dialled in and he never ever threatened and eventually finished in a tie for 8th.
It looked a minefield and the only plus was that I treated the whole event with the caution it deserved. My few in-running bets before yesterday are detailed in the Live Golf Blog but I did have one more bet yesterday - a very small wager on Chile's Felipe Aguilar, though I do regret not laying Mark Foster. Remarkably, he hit a low of just [1.3] after only three holes before crumbling to a tie for 4th.
I made a couple of further plays during the final round of the Arnold Palmer, backing both Trevor Immelman, at an average of [65.0], and Justin Rose at [100.0] but my big disappointment was pre-event pick Bubba Watson - more on that later.
Player to Watch
He's not for me, purely because I believe you need to be up with the pace to win the US Masters and I don't think he quite has the nerve for it, but Justin Rose will be a solid selection for many in the lead-up to the year's first Major.
Currently trading at around [36.0], I can see him shortening up over the next ten days. He's in fine fettle, has form at Augusta and may well prove popular in the press. If you fancy backing a Brit to cheer on, who's in great heart and could just pull off a biggy, there are worse bets than Justin for the US Masters right now. And the big plus is that he doesn't play next week so there's no danger of him spoiling your bet by playing pants in Houston.
Player to swerve
For years, and I do mean years, Bubba Watson was on my 'avoid like the plague' list due to his very nervy in-contention play but then he managed to squeeze past old-timers Corey Pavin and Scott Verplank in a play-off at last year's Travelers Championship to record his maiden win.
That effort didn't convince me though, the win had as much to do with Justin Rose's final round collapse (he traded as short as [1.21] on Sunday) as it did Bubba's mental fortitude. With his Dad dying the scenes afterwards were emotional to say the least and there isn't a man alive that could have begrudged him his win, but I'll be honest, at the time I thought it was probably a one-off.
Then remarkably, or so I thought, he found himself in a play-off for the US PGA Championship, were a final hole blunder eventually handed the initiative to Martin Kaymer. Though still not wholly convinced, I was as impressed as I was surprised.
Fast forward to January, and yours truly is sweating on a very decent wager on Phil Mickelson to win the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines but who should deny him the win, in what was the most impressive display of clutch putting and bottle...Bubba. I was convinced.
He was a changed man and one that was surely going to go on to bigger and better things. I'm going to follow this man at decent odds when conditions suit his game I thought. He's now a real competitor with proven bottle...
So, as they say up here around Sheffield way, what the chuff happened yesterday!
That was a pathetic effort from start to finish and my opinion has been swayed back in dramatic fashion. He had admitted to feeling very nervous on Saturday and I can only assume those nerves just got worse on Sunday. As things stand, I have to conclude that in all likelihood the impressive, and boy was it impressive, performance at Torrey Pines was quite possibly a one-off. I very much regret, caution re Bubba is very much advised again going forward.
What have we leant for next year?
If I can get away from my disappointment re Bubba for a moment, which isn't easy, and view the Arnold Palmer objectively, it really was a cracking event. It had the feel of a major and was a remarkably tough test. The bunkers are proper bunkers and if you go in them you can expect to be punished. They certainly cost poor ole Steve Marino the title as he found himself plugged twice late on.
It's a really tough finish. The per-5 16th is the easiest hole on the course but that's the only respite. Although it 'only' ranked as the 6th toughest hole, the par-3 17th is ridiculously tricky and players found it almost impossible to land their ball on the green. Even when they hit the very front the ball just scooted through and either out the back or into the back bunker. I wouldn't be surprised to see a notorious Arnold Palmer tweak there because it was a bit daft really. And holes 14, 15, and 18 rank as the three hardest on the course, things can change very fast, as they did this year - Steve Marino was matched at a low of just [1.3] before he played the final five.
Those that suddenly found themselves in the mix thanks in part to the leaders stalling, like Rose, Immelman and Marc Leishman may well recover easily enough but the mental demands put on Laird, Marino, David Toms, Spencer Levin and indeed Bubba over the weekend could leave a mark for some time. That was a tough weekend to say the least.
This week's events are the Trophee Hassan II from Morocco and the Shell Houston Open from Texas. I'll be back tomorrow night with a preview.
Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week.......
Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......
An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......
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