ATP Indian Wells Betting: Matosevic value against Querrey and Murray may have to work again

"Matosevic is striking the ball well and Querrey doesn’t have a good record at Indian Wells, with just one fourth round appearance lifetime at this venue.."

Back Matosevic +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.834/5

Sean Calvert was back to winning ways at Indian Wells yesterday and he's identified another tempting wager at the BNP Paribas Open this evening...

Kevin Anderson more than justified my faith in him yesterday with a thoroughly convincing straight sets win over Jarkko Nieminen to make my straight sets wager a winner at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

The big South African was in rare form again and after his win over David Ferrer the previous round and the Finn had no answers in a 6-3, 6-1 stroll in which Anderson lost just one point on his first serve.

Elsewhere, Jerzy Janowicz produced the kind of performance against Richard Gasquet that I was expecting when he faced David Nalbandian in the previous round. The Pole managed just 41% of first serves in play, which was never likely to get the job done against the Gasman.

It was easy for Roger Federer and even easier for Rafa Nadal, whose opponent withdrew and probably the highlight of the day was a typically barmy performance from Ernests Gulbis, who showed his full repertoire in a tight three set win over Andreas Seppi. 

Andy Murray is in action tonight against the man who memorably stunned him at the 2008 Olympics Yen Hsun Lu, but that match won't be on until 2am. For those staying up late marking their cards for Cheltenham I would be inclined to side with Lu with a 5.5 game start at around 1.9520/21. 

Murray recovered from a slow start against Evgeny Donskoy, but he's not the same player in Masters compared to Slams and I doubt that he'll take Lu apart tonight. 

Also in action today are Novak Djokovic who should have few problems getting past Grigor Dimitrov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who should take care of a very rusty Mardy Fish. Juan Martin Del Potro also looks to have a pretty routine task against diminutive German Bjorn Phau.

But Marin Cilic versus Milos Raonic should be competitive and probably quite long, with the overs looking good there and I like Nico Almagro to edge it against Tommy Haas, but perhaps better value comes in the match between Marinko Matosevic and Sam Querrey.

Big Sam has had a pretty average year so far and is perhaps best known for a shocking choke against Gulbis in Delray Beach so far in 2013 and he has been beaten by Matosevic already this season. 

The Aussie has eased into the third round stage by beating Tommy Robredo and Juan Monaco in straight sets, which shows that he's striking the ball well and Querrey doesn't have a good record at Indian Wells, with just one fourth round appearance lifetime at this venue. 

The 3.259/4 about a Matosevic win is worthy of consideration, but the 3.5 game handicap start at 1.834/5 looks a good bet in this one, as surely at least one and probably all sets of this one will be close. 

Recommended Bet
Back Matosevic +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.834/5

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Sony Ericsson Tips: In-form Matosevic to keep good run going

Events / Ben Caudell / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Marinko Matosevic has hit a good streak

"My bet of the day is to back Marinko Matosevic of Australia to defeat Robin Haase of the Netherlands @ [1.9] in the match odds market."

Ben Caudell begins a week of tipping with a look at the first round of this Masters Series event in Miami and an Aussie on a hot streak is his first bet...

A stomach bug swept through the locker room in Indian Wells last week with eight payers falling victim to the virus during the early rounds of the tournament.

That event was hit by a number of withdrawals and that has continued on the other side of the US with six players retiring on day one of qualifying in the Miami Masters Series, followed by two more yesterday.

As a heads-up, remember that if a player retires before the first set has been completed all match odds bets will be voided. Should a player retire at any stage after the completion of the first set all bets stand.

Although we are unsure about the true circumstances surrounding any retirement, having sifted through many of today's matches there a couple of players to keep an eye on due to illness or injury.

The first player to look out for is Philipp Petzschner of Germany who has lost six of his last seven matches overall and five of his last six when priced as a favourite (2.00 - 2.99) therefore consider backing Ivan Dodig @ [2.1] especially seeing as the German recently stated the following on twitter:
14 March - Hey guys, I am injured since a couple of weeks, as some of you already realized...

Tommy Haas is another player to oppose. He retired from the Dallas Challenger event only last week due to a stiff back and has poor form in Miami and at Master Series level losing four of his last five matches. His Opponent, Guillaume Ruffin should be considered @ [2.86].

The Frenchman has won through two rounds of qualifying without losing a set and has won four of his last five matches in the USA.

My bet of the day however is to back Marinko Matosevic of Australia to defeat Robin Haase of the Netherlands @ [1.9] in the match odds market.

Twenty-six-year-old Matosevic has risen from 203 to a career high of 122 in the world rankings since the start of the year and has won 15 of his last 17 matches. Since February Marinko has triumphed at the Caloundra Challenger tournament as well as reaching the final of Delray Beach, an event he had to qualify for.

Although this will be the first competitive match between the two, Matosevic comes into the match with a superior surface rating and match rating (Match Ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player). Moreover, Haase has lost six of his last seven matches in Master Series events and 50% of his last ten matches on tour and is in dire form. The [1.9] currently on offer for a Matosevic win in my view represents a decent value bet.

Recommended Bet
Back Marinko Matosevic to defeat Robin Haase @ [1.9]

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