Australian Open Tips: Ferrer to test Djokovic's resolve

Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

The marathon man. David Ferrer is one of the fittest players on the Tour.

"If Djokovic goes into this shell as he did against Lleyton Hewitt he could be in for a long evening against an opponent who you have to scrape off the court, as Murray found out last year."

World number one Novak Djokovic will face the biggest test of this tournament so far when he goes up against the tireless David Ferrer and this could be a long one. Elsewhere, Maria Sharapova should find it a lot easier against shock quarter-finalist Ekaterina Makarova.

There was more misfortune on Day Nine in Melbourne yesterday, as Agnieszka Radwanska capitulated after taking the first set against Victoria Azarenka.

The Pole managed to win just two games in the final two sets, which took down my handicap bet that was looking good early on.

The other annoying aspect is that my fancy of Kim Clijsters at odds against over the thankfully now deposed 'world number one' Caroline Wozniacki did come in in straight sets.

And what can you say about Roger Federer, who destroyed Juan Martin Del Potro to set up a rare semi final clash with Rafa Nadal?

Day 10 should bring some respite though with Andy Murray taking on Kei Nishikori in the early hours of the morning for a place in the semi finals.

Murray has benefited from a dream draw in Melbourne so far, with Gael Monfils losing and allowing Murray a match against a partially fit Mikhail Kukushkin before Nishikori took out Tsonga for him.

The injury-prone Nishikori comes in to this match having played three five setters in a row for the first time in his career and his record of breaking down should concern his backers today.

I said in my preview of his match against Julien Benneteau that this is a guy on his way to the top-20 and so it has proved with that win over Tsonga (so he can beat the best) but I don't like the match up with Murray.

Nishikori likes to play guys that come at him and he'll have the opposite with Murray, who with a lot of gas left in the tank should have few problems winning this one fairly comfortably. The [1.65] about 3-0 looks good in that one if you're having a bet.

Both of the women's quarter finals should prove to be wins for the heavy favourites - Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova against opponents who will be delighted to have just reached the last eight.

It would be a massive shock if Sara Errani's defensive pushing came out on top against Petra Kvitova, who would need to hit a ton of unforced errors, while Makarova will be hoping that Sharapova has one of her nightmare matches on serve.

The only bet I'd consider in the women's is the 2-0 to Sharapova, who won't find the awkward lefty Makarova coming at her with the same power as Sabine Lisicki did yesterday.

Makarova needs to be able to move Sharapova forward where she's more vulnerable and I very much doubt that Maria will allow her the time to do that, so the 2008 champ should win enough of the points from the back of the court.

Sharapova has won the pair's first two meetings, which were both on Maria's least favoured clay surface and the [1.8] about her taking out first time Slam quarter finalist Makarova in straight sets looks a decent price.

The last match of the day is Novak Djokovic v David Ferrer and I think
the bet in this one is the overs at a mark of 31.5 games and odds
of around [1.8].

Ferrer is perennially underrated by the layers and this match could be a tougher battle than the odds suggest.

I expect Djokovic to come out on top and the [4.3] about him winning 3-1 looks tempting, but I can't see Ferrer being taken out in a comfortable straight sets as the layers have it.

If Djokovic goes into this shell as he did against Lleyton Hewitt he could be in for a long evening against an opponent who you have to scrape off the court, as Murray found out last year.

The world number one's backhand down the line needs to be on fire to keep the points as short as possible from Nole's viewpoint and if he does that successfully he'll win, but the Spaniard should have more than enough to make this a match on his recent impressive form.

Recommended Bets

Back Sharapova to beat Makarova 2-0 at [1.8]
Back Over 31.5 games in Djokovic v Ferrer at [1.8]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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If you haven't bet on the Open - or any event in Australia and New Zealand - before, there are a few things you need to know. For example, you have to move funds into your 'Australian Wallet' before placing a bet. We've put together a handy guide to how it all works, including short video clips.

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Australian Open Tips: Ferrer the tireless and Murray to progress

Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

One of the toughest guys on the Tour to beat - David Ferrer

"Rarely can there have been a wider gap between the attitude, determination and strength of character of two opposing players and I’d back Ferrer all day long against the mercurial underachiever Gasquet."

One of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour, David Ferrer, is up against one of the most enigmatic in Richard Gasquet and a strong preference goes for the Spaniard. Sean Calvert talks us through this and the other best bets of the day.

Day seven at the Australian Open proved to be the first disappointing one of the tournament for this column as both of my bets were beaten.

The first was very unfortunate, as Li Na wasted four match points against a hobbled Kim Clijsters before Bernard Tomic blinked against Roger Federer, who was in no mood to concede a set to the young upstart.

On to the business end of the tournament then and this is where it should prove profitable to back against those for whom reaching the second week is the limit of their expectations.

The first of these is Lleyton Hewitt, who has ridden his luck as far as it is likely to go and who will be taken care of with ease by defending champion, Novak Djokovic.

Hewitt should have been beaten by Cedrik Marcel Stebe (who choked), Andy Roddick (injured) and Milos Raonic (bad day the office) and for the first leg of a Betfair Multiple today I'll take Djokovic to win 3-0 at around [1.38].

I don't see any way (injury notwithstanding) how Hewitt can possibly nick a set off Djokovic in the form the world number one's in at the moment and that should set us up for the second and final leg, which is David Ferrer to beat Richard Gasquet at [1.5].

Rarely can there have been a wider gap between the attitude, determination and strength of character of two opposing players and I'd back Ferrer all day long against the mercurial underachiever Gasquet.

The Frenchman has reached the fourth round here twice in the past and lost in four sets both times and under what is set to be a very hot sun today, I can see the 'Gasman' melting away as he's forced into long, punishing rallies by the indefatigable Spaniard.

Ferrer has won five of their six previous matches, all of which have been straight sets wins for the victor and that could be the same again today.

Finally on the men's side tonight, Andy Murray takes on Mikhail Kukushkin in a match-up that the Scot shouldn't take too lightly.

Kukushkin has shown signs of improvement of late and although the [1.03] shot should take this, I would never back Murray against anyone half decent at that price.

The pair met less than a fortnight ago in Brisbane and the Kazakhstan player was good enough to take a set from the Scot then, but on the evidence of what was almost a choke for the ages against Gael Monfils in the last round, his temperament is not the best.

He's got nothing to lose though and might be good enough to win on the handicap with a [9.5] game start at around [2.0].

Continuing the theme of backing against the players who have done well just to make the second week, I'll take Zheng Jie to use her experience to end Sara Errani's unlikely run to the fourth round at a price of [1.44].

The diminutive Chinese player has reached the semi finals and the fourth round here on her last two visits and she also has a semi final appearance at Wimbledon to her name, which will give her an edge over her Italian opponent.

This is Errani's first time in the fourth round of a Slam and she's surely at the very limit of where her talent will take her, but she does have a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head match up.

This will be an awkward match for Zheng, as she prefers to counterpunch against pace from her opponents, which she won't get today, but I think the clever Zheng will figure out a way to get things done.

As far as outsiders go tonight, Ana Ivanovic has a shot at [4.1] against Petra Kvitova, as does Sabine Lisicki against Maria Sharapova at the same price, but you couldn't back either with any real confidence.

Recommended Bets

Back Ferrer [1.5] and Djokovic 3-0 [1.38] in a Betfair Multiple
Back Zheng to beat Errani at [1.44]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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