Serbian Football Betting: Prosinecki's progress

European Leagues / Jonathan Wilson / 05 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Friends in high places. Robert Prosinecki has a natter with Luis Figo.

"Prosinecki, in fact, showed little patience himself. Frustrated at the lack of progress after a year, he put 11 players on the transfer list. He promoted players from the youth ranks and reinvested most of what he made in sales."

Under Robert Prosinecki there have been plenty of changes at Crvena Zvezda. The title looks out of their reach this season but next year they look likely to put some serious on Partizan Belgrade, says Jonathan Wilson.

That should, really, be it. Crisis over - at least for now. As Crvena Zevdza closed the gap at the top of the Serbian League to six points, it did seem for a moment that they might be executing an improbable comeback, but Wednesday evening's results put paid to that.

Partizan were under pressure, particularly when Petar Skuletic gave third-placed Vojviodina Novi Sad a 29th minute lead, but Nemanja Tomic levelled early in the second half. As Vojvodina lost their discipline Zvonimir Vukic added two more either side of a Vladimir Volkov strike while the away side had Daniel Mojsov and Miroslav Vulicevic sent off.

At the same time as the leaders were winning 4-1, Zvezda were being held to a goalless draw at Radnicki Kragujevac. The gap now is eight points which, given they've dropped only seven points all season, looks insurmountable. That's why they're [1.11] to win the championship while Crvena Zvezda are [17.0]. Nothing is ever quite buying money, but this is as close as you're going to get.

And yet what is interesting is that there was a doubt - a minor one, for sure, but a doubt nonetheless. And it's a doubt that has a familiar, saggy face; that of Avram Grant. A month ago, Partizan's lead stood at 10 points. The momentum has shifted and that could make next season, for the first time in a long time in Serbian football, truly competitive.

It would be easy to knock Grant, but the issue is less why he was appointed than why there was a vacancy in the first place. Partizan began the season with a stutter, losing to Sloboda Point Sevojo and going out of the Champions League qualifiers to Shamrock Rovers. They won 13 in a row after that, but that wasn't enough for the club president, Dragan Djuric. He sniped constantly about the coach, Aleksandar Stanojevic and the director of football, Mladen Krastajic, and when they protested, they were fired.

The contrast with events at Zvezda is clear. Robert Prosinecki was appointed a year ago with Zvezda seemingly behind Partizan in every regard, something underlined when Partizan beat Zvezda both in the league and over two legs in the Cup semi-final. Other league results were good, but in Serbia they're meant to be.

Had Prosinecki not been a club legend, would he have been ousted? It's impossible to be sure, but probably - certainly after another derby defeat to Partisan this season and an emphatic exit from the Europa League at the hands of Rennes - serious questions would have been asked. But, for whatever reason, Zvezda's board showed patience and they are beginning to reap their reward.

Prosinecki, in fact, showed little patience himself. Frustrated at the lack of progress after a year, he put 11 players on the transfer list. He promoted players from the youth ranks and reinvested most of what he made in sales. In total, 14 players have left the club this season and 15 joined - and that's without counting loans deals of which there has been one in and 12 out.

It was a high-risk strategy, but it has brought six league wins in the last month. More than that, there is a sense of identity about the side now, and fans are always likely to be more supportive of teenaged locals than imports in their late twenties. But there's been little need for patience. Partizan's lead has been cut in the league, but by far the bigger result came in the Cup.

Perhaps Zvezda were lucky to win the first leg of their semi-final 2-0. Perhaps there were spells when Partizan were the better side. But Luka Milunovic and Luka Kasilica took the chances that came their way and there is talk of a changing of the guard. Zvezda face the second leg of their Cup semi-final at Partizan next Wednesday and then must face either Borak Cacak or Vojvodina in the final - which will be held in Vojvodina's stadium.

Zvezda won the Cup two years ago, but another success would help Prosinecki. And then, next season, there is the bigger task of ending Partizan's run of league success which should then stretch to five years.

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Australian Open Tips: Ferrer the tireless and Murray to progress

Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

One of the toughest guys on the Tour to beat - David Ferrer

"Rarely can there have been a wider gap between the attitude, determination and strength of character of two opposing players and I’d back Ferrer all day long against the mercurial underachiever Gasquet."

One of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour, David Ferrer, is up against one of the most enigmatic in Richard Gasquet and a strong preference goes for the Spaniard. Sean Calvert talks us through this and the other best bets of the day.

Day seven at the Australian Open proved to be the first disappointing one of the tournament for this column as both of my bets were beaten.

The first was very unfortunate, as Li Na wasted four match points against a hobbled Kim Clijsters before Bernard Tomic blinked against Roger Federer, who was in no mood to concede a set to the young upstart.

On to the business end of the tournament then and this is where it should prove profitable to back against those for whom reaching the second week is the limit of their expectations.

The first of these is Lleyton Hewitt, who has ridden his luck as far as it is likely to go and who will be taken care of with ease by defending champion, Novak Djokovic.

Hewitt should have been beaten by Cedrik Marcel Stebe (who choked), Andy Roddick (injured) and Milos Raonic (bad day the office) and for the first leg of a Betfair Multiple today I'll take Djokovic to win 3-0 at around [1.38].

I don't see any way (injury notwithstanding) how Hewitt can possibly nick a set off Djokovic in the form the world number one's in at the moment and that should set us up for the second and final leg, which is David Ferrer to beat Richard Gasquet at [1.5].

Rarely can there have been a wider gap between the attitude, determination and strength of character of two opposing players and I'd back Ferrer all day long against the mercurial underachiever Gasquet.

The Frenchman has reached the fourth round here twice in the past and lost in four sets both times and under what is set to be a very hot sun today, I can see the 'Gasman' melting away as he's forced into long, punishing rallies by the indefatigable Spaniard.

Ferrer has won five of their six previous matches, all of which have been straight sets wins for the victor and that could be the same again today.

Finally on the men's side tonight, Andy Murray takes on Mikhail Kukushkin in a match-up that the Scot shouldn't take too lightly.

Kukushkin has shown signs of improvement of late and although the [1.03] shot should take this, I would never back Murray against anyone half decent at that price.

The pair met less than a fortnight ago in Brisbane and the Kazakhstan player was good enough to take a set from the Scot then, but on the evidence of what was almost a choke for the ages against Gael Monfils in the last round, his temperament is not the best.

He's got nothing to lose though and might be good enough to win on the handicap with a [9.5] game start at around [2.0].

Continuing the theme of backing against the players who have done well just to make the second week, I'll take Zheng Jie to use her experience to end Sara Errani's unlikely run to the fourth round at a price of [1.44].

The diminutive Chinese player has reached the semi finals and the fourth round here on her last two visits and she also has a semi final appearance at Wimbledon to her name, which will give her an edge over her Italian opponent.

This is Errani's first time in the fourth round of a Slam and she's surely at the very limit of where her talent will take her, but she does have a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head match up.

This will be an awkward match for Zheng, as she prefers to counterpunch against pace from her opponents, which she won't get today, but I think the clever Zheng will figure out a way to get things done.

As far as outsiders go tonight, Ana Ivanovic has a shot at [4.1] against Petra Kvitova, as does Sabine Lisicki against Maria Sharapova at the same price, but you couldn't back either with any real confidence.

Recommended Bets

Back Ferrer [1.5] and Djokovic 3-0 [1.38] in a Betfair Multiple
Back Zheng to beat Errani at [1.44]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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Copa America Betting: Paraguay progress amidst chaos

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Paraguay celebrating their shootout success before things turned nasty

"Paraguay [[3.0]] can achieve an even more unique feat by becoming the first team to triumph in the competition without actually winning a single game."

A post-match scrap overshadowed the action on the pitch as Paraguay earned a place in Sunday's final against Uruguay by defeating Venezuela on penalties.

After the shocks of the quarter-finals, the semi-finals went the way that the odds suggested, with Paraguay joining Uruguay in Sunday's Copa America Final courtesy of a penalty shootout victory over the tournament's surprise package Venezuela.

And while the [1.49] favourites to claim the trophy, Uruguay, will be looking to make history with a record 15th title, Paraguay [[3.0]] can achieve an even more unique feat by becoming the first team to triumph in the competition without actually winning a single game.

This was Gerardo Martino's side's second straight spot-kick success and followed three draws in the group stage, meaning every single one of their encounters to date have finished level, with the [3.25] on them completing a full house in Buenos Aries sure to appeal.

If they were unfortunate not to take three points when they last met Venezuela in Group B though, seeing a 3-1 lead eradicated in the final few minutes of that match, then there is no doubt that lady luck was in their corner in the final-four collision.

Venezuela, who were [310.0] to go all the way before it all started on July 1, had a goal disallowed and hit the woodwork three times before eventually being beaten in the shootout, punished for one tame attempt by Franklin Lucena.

Their sense of injustice was strengthened by the referee's failure to dismiss Dario Veron, who went on to score the decisive penalty.

Sadly, their fine effort in this year's Copa America might not live as long in the memory as the scenes that followed their elimination. The two squads engaged in the on-the-pitch brawl that appears almost a monthly tradition in South America, which is expected to be investigated by the organisers.

As far as the final is concerned, Uruguay boast the head-to-head advantage having won three of the last four clashes, and are [2.02] to end Paraguay's drawing streak by prevailing in 90 minutes. Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

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