The BMW PGA Championship: Course form is critical, says The Punter

Our man takes a good look at England's only European Tour event of the year, where the entire Ryder Cup team will be putting in an appearance. What will it take to win around Surrey's finest? Read Steve's in-depth preview here...

Tournament History
The first BMW PGA Championship was played at Wentworth back in 1972. Three years later it moved to Royal St.Georges, which hosted the event for the next three years, and then for the six years from 1978 to 1983 it was played at a number of different venues before it returned to Wentworth in 1984, where it's been staged ever since. This will by the 42nd edition of the European Tour's flagship tournament and again, sadly, it's the only European Tour event of the season to be held in England.

Venue
Wentworth (West Course), Surrey, England.

Course Details
Par 72 -7,302 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 - 73.25
Opened in 1926 and designed by Harry Colt, the West Course, also referred to as Burma Road, has undergone a series of alterations in recent years, under the supervision of Ernie Els.

All the greens were remodelled in 2009/10 but the biggest change of all came on the par five 18th hole. At the mercy to modern equipment, the old 18th was an almost given birdie and a great eagle chance but now, with a dirty great stream snaking its way in front of the green, it's a stunning risk/reward finishing hole.

Poor Ernie had to put up with a lot of criticism in 2010 when players first met with the new design and in truth, it didn't quite work. Most players attempting to find the green in two found the water and the vast majority decided to play it as a three-shot hole so prior to last year's renewal the landing area was extended and flattened out and the green was rebuilt.

After two years as a ridiculously tough par 4, the 12th hole was changed back to a par five before last year's renewal too and it finished the week as the second easiest hole. Only the par 5 4th played easier.

Wentworth is a tight, tree-lined, fairly flat course with tricky-to-read greens that run at just 10 on the stimpmeter.

Check out the link below for more on the course.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Tour
Twitter Link
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports - 10am on Thursday and Friday and 12.30pm on Saturday and Sunday. Highlights only over the weekend on BBC.

Last Five Winners
2012 - Luke Donald -15
2011 - Luke Donald -6 (Playoff) (Par 71)
2010 - Simon Khan -6 (Par 71)
2009 - Paul Casey -17
2008 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -11 (Playoff)

What will it take to win the BMW PGA Championship?
Being able to play in windy conditions and having the experience of the Wentworth wind is crucial. As well as a yardage book, the players are issued with a wind map but just how much it helps I've no idea. It can be quite baffling at times, you can be in one spot on the course and barely feel the wind but then you can walk along a short while and it'll be blowing a gale! The course plays very much harder in breezy conditions and it can be very confusing for those with little course experience.

A straight game is definitely preferable to a long one and patience is a prerequisite too. To win here you need to bide your time, avoid trouble and make your score on the long holes.

Is there an angle in?
Course form stands up really well and it often pays to follow those that have shown a liking to the place already. The likes of Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell and Padraig Harrington always seem to struggle and are simply not worth persevering with. In contrast, plenty of players, and some of them far from fashionable, play well here year after year. You need to oppose the Wentworth wobblers and get with the Wentworth winners.

Is there an identikit winner?
British players, and English players in particular have a great record in the event and an Englishman has won the last four renewals.

There have been some big-priced winners in the past and the unheralded Simon Khan took the title in 2010, the first year the event was played following the major course changes, but over the last two years the very best have been slugging it out come Sunday.

Lee Westwood pushed Luke Donald all the way two years ago and last year it was Justin Rose. It's a sterner test than ever now, especially in the wind, and I'll be surprised if we get a shock winner this year.

In-Play Tactics
At the time of writing, the forecast suggests strong winds will be an ever-present over the first two days, before conditions improve over the weekend. It's going to be fairly cold too, so don't expect low-scoring. It may be that the market doesn't quite recognise a good score on Thursday morning and there might be a bit of value about early on.

Ordinarily I'd expect around - 6 to be leading after day one but I fancy it could be considerably higher this year.

With two par 5s to finish, anything can happen and big swings can occur late on. There were only eight eagles made all week on 17 and 18 last year (four on each) but a birdie-birdie finish isn't uncommon. And nor is a bogey-bogey finish either. Luke Donald blew a great chance here in 2010 when he double-bogeyed the 17th and now that there's water in front of the 18th, anything can happen there too.

Market Leaders
Nick Faldo won this event four times, and Bernard Langer and Colin Montgomerie both did so on three occasions, so multiple wins are fairly common. Monty won his three-in-a-row between 1998 and 2000 and Luke Donald has an excellent chance of emulating him this time around.

Second and third favourites, Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood, both have largely disappointing form around Wentworth and both are readily dismissed at the prices, and so too is Justin Rose.

With two second placed finishes around Wentworth, Rose has the course form in the book but he's been off the boil for a while now and his missed cut at the Players Championship hardly bodes well.

The entire winning Ryder Cup team from Medinah is present this week and I have to wonder if that's the only reason Sergio Garcia is playing. He's been quite well-supported in the market but given he hasn't played in this event since 2000 I'm more than happy to pass him up. Romilly Evans looks at the Spaniard in depth in this piece here.

Selections
Although I've only had a very small wager on Luke Donald, I felt I couldn't leave him out of my calculations entirely. He isn't quite at the top of his game at present but nobody in the field plays Wentworth as well as him and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see him win it for a third straight year.

I've outlined the case for South African, Branden Grace, here and for small stakes only I've given his fellow countryman, Ernie Els, one more try at a big price.

The Big Easy used to live at Wentworth and he owned the Volvo Match Play here, winning it a record seven times, but for some bizarre reason, he's never won this one. He had to deflect an awful lot of flak two years ago over the course changes and then last year he lost the plot over the watering of the greens. Hopefully he can have a more peaceful week this year and just concentrate on contending.

He's been putting well of late, he'll be in the minority when it comes to being able to figure out the wind over the first two days and he was far too big at 70.069/1.

Playing on a medical exemption twelve months ago, and following five straight missed cuts, Richard Sterne really caught the eye with his 6th placed finish. He was also third here in 2007 and over the last six months on the European Tour, he's the number one performer on the par fives. He's already a winner this season, having claimed the Joburg Open in February, and I can see him going really well this week.

Paul Lawrie has a great record at Wentworth and the tough conditions on Thursday and Friday may play to his strengths. He's not the fastest starter and often has too much to do over the weekend but it might be a bit of grind over the first two days this year and that should suit him.

Putting has been his weakness this year but he tweeted yesterday that the "putter had been good this week".

My final selection is Brett Rumford, who I was very surprised to get 120.0119/1 about. Rumford has won his last two stroke play events and was 4th here in 2006, so he has both current and course form. He grew up in Perth, playing the tree-lined Lake Karrinyup Country Club and contending with the notorious Fremantle Doctor. He has one of the finest short games in the world at present, it won't matter a jot how hard the wind blows and there's no way he should be trading at a tripe-figure price.

Pre-Event Selections
Luke Donald @ 9.617/2
Branden Grace @ 55.054/1
Ernie Els @ 70.069/1
Richard Sterne @ 70.069/1 (Fixed Odds)
Paul Lawrie @ 75.074/1
Brett Rumford @ 120.0119/1

I'll be back later on with a preview of the week's other event, The Crowne Plaza Invitational.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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The Arnold Palmer Invitational: Tiger looks great to make it eight, says The Punter

“I started out thinking that I’d want 5.04/1 to back Tiger this week and I’ve finished up thinking he shouldn’t be much bigger than 3.02/1, so somewhere in the middle he’s a very confident selection. “

Tiger Woods is bidding to win his eighth Arnold Palmer Invitational and our man fancies he will. Read Steve's preview of this week's PGA Tour event here...

Tournament History
In existence since 1966 (when first played as the Florida Citrus Open), the event was floundering badly when Arnold Palmer took over and moved it to Bay Hill in 1979. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the final leg of the Florida Swing this year and once again, it's attracted a high calibre field.

Venue
Bay Hill Club Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Course Details
Par 72, 7,419 yards, stroke average in 2012 - 72.95

As per usual with a Florida track, the entire course is laid to Bermuda and wind is often a factor. The greens are very fast at 12 on the stimpmeter and slightly larger than average.

The course was changed to a par 70 for the three events between 2007 and 2009 but the 4th and 16th holes were reverted back to par 5's before the 2010 renewal. There are 108 bunkers on the course and water is in-play on nine holes.

Bay Hill is true test, where there is no hiding place.

Useful Sites
Course Site
Course Details
Twitter Link
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
Alternative Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, 7.00pm on Thursday and Friday, 4.30pm on Saturday and 5.00pm on Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2112 - Tiger Woods -13
2011 - Martin Laird -8
2010 - Ernie Els -11
2009 - Tiger Woods -5
2008 - Tiger Woods -18

What will it take to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational?
A good all round game, the capacity to handle windy conditions and the ability to putt on Bermuda greens are all vital.

Total Driving is a good start to examine as length off the tee is a big advantage, but only if you can keep out of the tricky Bermuda rough. Martin Laird two years ago, at 20th, is the worst any winner has ranked for Greens In Regulation in the last five years and good scrambling is key too but since reverting back to a par 72, without doubt, the most significant stat has been Par 5 Performance. ..

Both Laird and Tiger played the 16 long holes in 12 under par, ranking 1st for the week and Ernie Els played them in 10 under in 2010, ranking second.

Is there an identikit winner?
If you take Tiger Woods out of the equation, international players have a very fair record. Kenny Perry and Chad Campbell are the only Americans, other than Woods, to win here this century.

Americans have won all 12 PGA Tour events so far in 2013 but if Woods fails to shine, that run might just come to an end here.

In-Play Tactics
The finish is tough with the last four holes ranking 3, 18, 7 and 1 in order of difficulty last year. The easy par five 16th is the only respite. Players can struggle to hold their tee-shots on the par 3 17th green as the greens speed up throughout the week and the 18th, with water on approach to the green, is always really tough.

In contrast to last week at Copperhead, Bay Hill is not a catch-up course. Since reverting back to a par 72, all three winners have been in the top five after round one and leading by halfway. Just like the first two venues on the Florida Swing - PGA National and Doral, a fast start is essential.

Market Leaders
It doesn't take a genius to work out who's the favourite this week. Tiger Woods' record here is simply incredible. He's played the event on 15 occasions and he's won seven times, including four in-a-row from the year 2000! He was injured in 2010 and didn't play the event so this year he's looking for his 4th win in five starts and should he do so, his strike rate will be 50% spanning a period of 16 years.

When you consider how well he's played at his favourite venues so far in 2013 - a winner at Torrey Pines and at Doral last time out, together with his record here and the fact that he broke a barren spell of getting on for three years with a five-stroke margin win in this event twelve months ago, it's almost impossible to think he's unlikely to challenge.

Phil Mickelson, a winner here in 1997, runner-up in 2002 and third in 2003, is second favourite but he hasn't finished inside the top-20 in five starts since.

Third favourite, Justin Rose, won in Florida at last year's WGC Cadillac Championship, has finished inside the top-ten in his last two starts and was third here two years ago but he looks short enough to me at just 22.021/1.

Three others all trade below 30.029/1 - Sergio Garcia, Brandt Snedeker and Graeme McDowell.

Garcia stuck at the task better than I thought he would last week at Copperhead and he does have a few high finishes here (5 top-10's in his last 10 starts) but he's only once broken 70 on the weekend, way back in 2001.

Snedeker was the hottest player on the planet before he was struck down with a rib injury and this is his first start in over a month. The chances are he'll be a bit rusty with Augusta on his mind and given he has an ordinary record at the track too, he's readily overlooked.

G-Mac was Tiger's closest challenger here last year, as well as last time out at Doral and he was also the runner-up here in 2005. He's in fine form, isn't intimidated by Woods and of the market leaders, other than Tiger, he's my idea of the best value.

Selections
Tiger Woods has the iron-will to get the job done here even when he's not up to his best. If one aspect of his game hasn't been up to scratch, he's somehow been able to shine elsewhere to compensate. When he won here in 2008 and 2009, he did so despite not driving well, and in 2009, he only ranked 50th for GIR too, but he was still able to win because he was the best scrambler and second best putter that week.

He was easily beaten here in 2010 but his game was in a poor state that year and he'd also put in distinctly ordinary efforts at both Torrey Pines and Doral that year too.

I started out thinking that I'd want 5.04/1 to back him this week and I've finished up thinking he shouldn't be much bigger than 3.02/1, so somewhere in the middle at 4.1n/a, he's a very confident selection.

I've also had a small saver on Bubba Watson, who I backed last year when he finished 4th. I've played him a number of times already this year and he hasn't quite shined yet but I gave up on him last year, just as he won the US Masters and that still grates.

Bubba is one of the world's very best players on his day and he often looks over-priced. This is one of those occasions.

Selections:
Tiger Woods @ 4.216/5
Bubba Watson @ 38.037/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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The Omega European Masters: Wiesberger value to make it three, says The Punter

“Berndt Wiesberger is an in-form clinical closing multiple European Tour winner and he’s far too big at 60.059/1 in this grade.”

Flushed with success after Paul Lawrie's win in Scotland, Steve takes a look at this week's European Tour action from Switzerland. Could our man pick back-to-back winners on the Race to Dubai?

Tournament History
With an illustrious list of champions that includes Bob Charles, Nick Price, Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros (three times), José María Olazábal, Sergio Garcia, Ernie Els, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, to name but a few, the Omega European Masters has a rich history dating right back to 1923.

It's been a European Tour event since 1972 and it's a bit disappointing to see a relatively weak field this week, thanks to its current slot in the schedule - opposite the second PGA Tour playoff event, the Deutsche Bank Championship, which starts on Friday. The tournament has been co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour since 2009.

Venue
Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana, Switzerland

Course Details
Par 71, 6822 yards
Stroke index in 2011 - 70.55

Winding its way through the beautiful mountains of Crans Montana, Crans-sur-Sierre is a visually stunning venue. At way below 7,000 yards, it's very short by modern standards and the last three winners have all achieved a total of at least 20 under-par.

With small upturned-saucer like greens, accuracy is most certainly the key attribute and Greens In Regulation and Scrambling are the two main stats to concentrate on. Three of the last four winners ranked 1st or 2nd for GIR and the three winners between 2007 and 2009 all topped the Scrambling stats.

Although a neat and tidy short game is what usually gets the job done here, the longer hitters can take advantage of the scoring holes. The par five opening hole, measuring just 540 yards, always ranks the easiest on the course, holes 6 and 7 are drivable par fours and the back-to-back par fives, 14 and 15, also offer great birdie/eagle chances.

Useful Sites
Tournament Site
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days - 10.30am and 3.30pm on Thursday and Friday and 12pm on Saturday and Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Thomas Bjorn -20
2010 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -21
2009 - Alexander Noren - 20
2008 - Jean-Francois Lucquin -13 (playoff)
2007 - Brett Rumford -16 (playoff)

Is there an identikit winner?
As mentioned, accurate iron-play and good scrambling pay dividends - the players will be hitting an awful lot of wedges into the greens this week, setting up plenty of birdie chances so a great short game is key but its also worth noting that in-form players have fared well in recent years too.

Last year's winner, Thomas Bjorn had won the Johnnie Walker Championship seven days earlier and Edoardo Molinari finished second in 2010 after winning in Scotland the week before. And both Bjorn and Miguel Angel Jimenez in 2010 were winning their third event of the year.

In-Play Tactics
A fast start is important at Crans. Its 14 years since any winner was worse than five strokes off the lead after day one or three back at halfway, so it makes sense to concentrate on the front of the leaderboard from early on.

The harder holes come in three sets of three - the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, the 11th, 12th, and 13th and the final three. If your pick has hit the front after playing the reachable par five pair of 14 and 15, it might make sense to take some profit before they encounter the long par 3 16th, which always ranks the toughest hole on the course.

Market Leaders
Favourite Peter Hanson makes very little appeal. His 7th placed finish at the US PGA Championship last time out was impressive but he has no course form to speak of and it's now two years since his last success.

Last week's winner Paul Lawrie is bidding to emulate Bjorn of last year and achieve the unique Qatar Masters, Johnnie Walker Championship and Omega European Masters treble. That really would be quite bizarre and I can't see him doing it. His form at Crans isn't great, although he did finish second ten years ago, and he's often a slow starter, something that will really hamper him here. I imagine he's celebrated his latest success and that won't help either.

Former winners Bjorn and Alex Noren are both respected but both are a shade short for my liking and I liked Matteo Manassero at first glance but he also looks a bit short given his poor form of late.

Selections
Nobody in the field has a more solid bank of course form than 2010 winner Miguel Angel Jimenez and he looked a more than fair price at 36.035/1. He hasn't had the greatest of seasons but he turned the corner in no uncertain terms at last month's Open Championship, where he finished in the top-ten - ranking 1st for putting. Next time out, he finished 27th at the US PGA Championship, where he ranked 4th for both Driving Accuracy and GIR and 16th for putting. A missed cut at Gleneagles last week wasn't ideal but was he only there to support his Ryder Cup captain anyway?

Miguel will be buoyed by last week's announcement that he's Olazábal's fourth and final vice-captain at the fast-approaching Ryder Cup and given he's finished inside the top-ten in each of the last four years here, it would be no surprise whatsoever if he featured again this time around.

As previously mentioned, the last two winners were winning their third event of the season when they found success here; could lightening strike for a third time? Considering he was beaten in a playoff there 12 months ago, I was quite surprised that Austria's Berndt Wiesberger wasn't in the field at last week's Johnnie Walker Championship and I did wonder if there might have been a slight problem with the recent Austrian Open winner. It seems not, he was actually acclimatising himself well for this week's event, winning the Zurich Open pro-am with two rounds of 67.

Berndt missed the cut here on his only appearance but that came off the back of that disappointing playoff defeat last year and I'm happy to dismiss it. The Austrians an in-form clinical closing multiple European Tour winner and he's far too big at 60.059/1 in this grade.

Argentines often prosper at mountain venues and I've decided to make a small play on the only two in the field this week. Ricardo Gonzalez won this event in 2001 and he'd love to emulate his fellow countryman Eduardo Romero and win it twice.

Tano Goya zipped over to Switzerland after missing the cut in Scotland last week and very nearly won. A triple-bogey at the 15th hole in the second and final round of the Zurich Open stopped him in his tracks but he still finished second to Wiesberger.

Selections:
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 36.035/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ 60.059/1
Ricardo Gonzalez @ 200.0199/1
Tano Goya @ 400.0399/1

The week's other event, the Deutsche Bank Championship doesn't start until Friday but I'll be back tonight or early tomorrow with a preview.

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WGC Cadillac Championship: Punter plays the wind exponents

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Charl Schwartzel – Brings course and current form to this week’s event

“Tiger Woods was just four shots off the lead after day one in 2007 but that’s the furthest any winner has been after day one in the last seven years.”

With breezy weather forecast for the second WGC event of the year, our man plumps for an octet of wind specialists at tasty prices, and he also has a plan for day one. Read his preview here...

Tournament
The qualifying criteria for the WGC Cadillac Championship are extensive, verging on exhausting, but for those that want to know, the field includes the following. The top 50 in the official world rankings, the top 20 from last year's Race to Dubai standings and the top 30 from last year's FedEx Cup standings, as well as the top 10 from this year's Race to Dubai and FedEx Cup standing, and the top two players from the2011 Japanese, South African, Australasian and Asian Order of Merits. And that's it; nobody else gets a look in.

Venue
TPC Blue Monster at Doral, Doral, Florida

Course Details
Par 72, 7334 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 71.48

Doral was nicknamed the Blue Monster because water's in play on half the holes and it used to play really tough. It's now officially called the Blue Monster which is somewhat ironic because if the wind doesn't blow it's far from monstrous, and the scoring average comes down year after year with the advancement of technology. The average between 1962 (when it opened) and 1965 was 74.74. Last year it averaged just 71.48. The first hole (par five) is the easiest and the 18th (par four) the hardest. The greens are slightly above average in size at 6,500 feet and there are 108 bunkers on the course. Like last week's venue, the entire track is Bermuda.

Useful Sites
Course details
Weather
Venue Site

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, 7.00pm on Thursday and Friday and 5.00pm on Saturday and Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Nick Watney -16
2010 - Ernie Els -18
2009 - Phil Mickelson -19
2008 - Geoff Ogilvy -17
2007 - Tiger Woods -10

Typical Winner
Length off the tee is definitely a plus this week and the par fives are likely to be key. The last two winners both played the par fives in double-figures under par. A fast start appears essential too. Tiger Woods was just four shots off the lead after day one in 2007 but that's the furthest any winner has been after day one in the last seven years. An ability to play well in windy conditions is often important and judging by the early forecasts, that will again be the case this year.

Market leaders
Mike Norman covers the first four in the betting here and he advocates dutching them at around [2.6]. Given the form of Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods and Lee Westwood on Sunday, and the state of Phil Mickelson's game before he went on holiday, he could well be right but at the prices available, I'm going to look elsewhere. It's asking a lot for Rory to go in again, the jury's currently out re Woods' temperament in the mix, Westwood can't putt for toffee and Lefty won't be too keen to see the wind up.

Selections
The forecast has already changed slightly since I first started looking on Sunday and it could scupper my plans if it changes much further. It suggested very strong winds but now it gives merely breezy conditions. It's always a dangerous game to base your picks on a weather forecast but I haven't gone mad by any means. My plan is to get involved properly towards the end of, and at the end of, day one (see above re winners up with the early pace), but I've still picked out a few to get me started.

Charl Schwartzel pushed Ernie Els all the way here two years ago, played very well last week, can handle the wind, and looked over-priced at [36.0]. I didn't get as much on as I'd have liked at that price but I'm taking it easy from the off anyway.

Rory McIlroy wasn't the only youngster playing well last weekend. Rickie Fowler was scything through the field in the blustery weather. The wind can't blow hard enough for Rickie and if it does get really tough, he's the man to be on.

At a triple-figure price I'm giving Kyle Stanley a chance on his event debut. He has the length and par five performance required to prosper and he can play Bermuda and handle the wind. He hasn't a brilliant record in Florida and he missed the cut last week but when he challenged so strongly at the Farmers Insurance Open he'd missed the cut the week before.

After that it's a bunch of quality wind exponents at barmy prices, so come on wind, get blowing!

WGC Cadillac Championship Selections:
Charl Schwartzel @ an average of [34.0]
Rickie Fowler @ [55.0]
Kyle Stanley @ [100.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [160.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [210.0]
Paul Casey @ [250.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [450.0]
Greg Chalmers @ [450.0]

I'll be back later with a preview of the weeks other event, the Puerto Rico Open.

The Tiger roars again but he still can't eclipse McIlroy, as the youngster wins the Honda Classic in style to top the world rankings......

With storms threatening, play has been brought forward in Florida, with the leaders teeing off at 3.30pm. Can odds on Rory take the title and the world number one spot? The Punter gives his verdict here......

There's just one event to concentrate on this week but it's a cracker. Read Steve's thoughts on the Honda Classic here......

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AT & T Pebble Beach National: Mallinger to shine for The Punter

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

John Mallinger – The Punter’s idea of the best value this week

“Mallinger already has plenty of form at Pebble. He finished third in each of his first two attempts in this event in 2007 and 2008 and he won the Callaway Golf Pebble Beach Invitational here in 2010.”

Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?

Tournament
The AT & T Pebble Beach National is a Pro-am staged over three courses. This will be the 71st staging.

Venue
Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California

Course Details
Pebble Beach (host course), par 72, 6816 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 72.16

Spyglass Hill par 72, 6858 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 72.43

Monterey Peninsula, par 70, 6838 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 69.84

The field will play all three courses over the first three days before the final round will played out at Pebble. Monterey played the easiest of the three last year and that could be the place to bag a really low score.

Useful Sites

Weather
Course Guides
Official Event Site

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, 8.00pm on Thursday and Friday and 6.00pm on Saturday and Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - D.A Points -15
2010 - Dustin Johnson -16
2009 - Dustin Johnson -15 (54 holes)
2008 - Steve Lowery -10 (playoff)
2007 - Phil Mickelson -20

Typical Winner
With rounds taking that bit longer and with the need to interact with your amateur partner, the experienced and patient pros tend to prosper. Although big hitters Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson have won four of the last seven renewals, length isn't a prerequisite. You need a bit of luck with the weather - Spyglass is tree-lined and largely protected from the wind so anyone drawn there on a day that the wind howls at the two coastal tracks will have a considerable advantage. That said, the forecast this year suggests light winds and fine weather. One quirky stat of note - four of the last five winners was leading after day one.

Market leaders
Tiger Woods makes his 2012 PGA Tour debut and he heads the market at [6.6]. Paul Krishnamurty has looked at his prospects and I have to agree with him, he doesn't look like a value play at his current price.

At [22.0], Dustin Johnson will have his followers. He won back-to-back here in 2009 and 2010 but he was a long way off the pace last year, failing to break 70, finishing in a tie for 55th and you have to wonder how much of a scar was left after his infamous US Open collapse here in 2010. Given he's been pretty poor so far this term too, I'm happy to leave him alone.

The market can't split the next four, with Phil Mickelson, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan and Rickie Fowler all trading at [26.0].

Selections
It takes a bit of a leap of faith to side with Mickelson after his first two performances this year but that's precisely what I've done. Although, on close inspection of last week's tied 26th in Phoenix there are grounds for optimism. He ranked 6th for Scrambling and 13th for putting so his short game could just be getting there and besides, Lefty has often found form from nowhere. He'd missed the cut in Phoenix the week before he won here in 2007. He'll enjoy the benign conditions and if he can play Monterey a bit better than he did last year (shot 71) he might just surprise a few people.

John Mallinger was the first player I backed this week. He sat out last week's event and missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance the week before, but he could well have been suffering from a bit of a hangover following his near miss at the Humana Challenge, where he finished in a tie for second. Heralding from California, he already has plenty of form at Pebble. He finished third in each of his first two attempts in this event in 2007 and 2008 and he won the Callaway Golf Pebble Beach Invitational here in 2010. Kiss of death alert, he was my idea of the best value in the field.

It's been a long, long time since I last put any money on Jeff Maggert but he's injury-free and in fine form so far this season. He's a duel runner-up of the event (1994 and 2004) and he quite obviously ticks the experienced pro box.

Last up is Paul's Find Me A 100 Winner, Daniel Chopra, who has already caused a big stir this week, making two aces in practice yesterday.

AT & T Pebble Beach National Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [26.0]
John Mallinger @ an average of [90.0]
Jeff Maggert @ [130.0]
Daniel Chopra @ [260.0]

I'll be back on Thursday or Friday with the In-Play Blog.

Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?...

Pre-event pick Ben Crane comes up a shot shy but Steve was still happy to see Kyle Stanley win in Phoenix and he couldn't have been more impressed by Paul Lawrie's success in Qatar......

Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader......

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Qatar Masters: Bjorn again for the Punter

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Thomas Bjorn, looking to double up at Doha

“The forecast suggests an early start on Thursday could be a distinct advantage, so if you haven’t played yet, make sure you bear that in mind.”

It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here...

Tournament
This will be the 15th staging of the Commercialbank Qatar Masters, the middle leg of the Race to Dubai's Middle East swing.

Venue
Doha Golf Club, Qatar

Course Details
Par 72, 7388 yards. Like last week's venue, Doha was also designed by Peter Harradine. Punter's may want to keep a close eye on the weather forecast, the wind plays a big part in the outcome of the tournament and those drawn in the afternoon on day one last year were severely hampered. Runner-up, Alvaro Quiros, playing in the very worst of the winds and was five over par at one stage on day one. I'd shown my hand before the draw was made and I've one pick with a good draw and one with a poor one, but the forecast suggests an early start on Thursday could be a distinct advantage, so if you haven't played yet, make sure you bear that in mind. The rough is even less penal this year because of the forecast windy conditions.

Useful Sites

www.dohagolfclub.com

www.qatar-masters.com

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Doha/forecasts/latest

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days - starting 7.00am Thursday and Friday, 9.30am Saturday and 8.30am on Sunday

Last five winners
2011 - Thomas Bjorn -14
2010 - Robert Karlsson -15
2009 - Alvaro Quiros -19
2008 - Adam Scott -20
2007 - Retief Goosen -15

Typical Winner
As is so often the case, the most important stat here is Greens In Regulation. Unlike last week, Driving Accuracy isn't crucial at all. The plan here is fairly simple, bang it a long way off the tee, find the green and get hot with the putter. Although only Adam Scott has been successful more than once here, the same players tend to contend and conversely, some players just don't seem to get it. Martin Kaymer's record is lamentable and Rory McIlroy hasn't been back after a couple of fruitless visits.

Market Leaders
Lee Westwood has a fine record at Doha without winning but he was carrying an injury last week and that's more than enough to put me off. Sergio Garcia also has bits and pieces of form here but he's plenty short enough for my liking. Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer are the next two in the list and of the two, I much prefer G-Mac. He didn't look miles off last week whereas Kaymer was awful. As previously stated, the German's record here is poor too.

Selections
I picked out Alvaro Quiros as a pick here at the end of last year. Put simply, he's a no-brainer bet, especially now he has an advantageous early start on Thursday. He won the event three years ago and he's finished runner-up in each of the last two years. He missed the cut last week but he's never got to grips with Abu Dhabi and I'm happy to dismiss that performance. Hopefully, it's given him the opportunity to blow away a bit of rust and us a chance to get a better price here. I'd have gladly taken [16.0] and was delighted to get on at an average of [19.5].

Last year's winner, Thomas Bjorn, hasn't looked back since success here, challenging hard at the Open Championship and winning a couple more times on the Race to Dubai. He won comfortably last year (four strokes) and played very well last week. For once, Thomas isn't overlooked in the market but I still wanted him onside. Unfortunately his afternoon draw on Thursday isn't anywhere near as favourable as Alvaro's morning one.

Qatar Masters Selections
Alvaro Quiros @ an average of [19.5]
Thomas Bjorn @ [26.0]

I'll be back later with a preview of the US Tour's event, the WM Phoenix Open, and I'll kick off the In-Play Blog on either Thursday or Friday.

As if there wasn't enough drama in Abu Dhabi, with Robert Rock holding Tiger Woods and Co at bay, last night's Farmers Insurance Open produced an unbelievable finish......

Tiger Woods is back, but can he finish the job off tomorrow? With a round to go, Steve's picked out three players at tasty prices, just in case he can't......

Our man runs the rule over this week's PGA Tour action, where Phil Mickelson will be trying to make up for last year's near miss. Read Steve's thoughts here......

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Betfair punter scoops £100,000 after Meehan points to 6070/1 four-timer

Trainer Talk / Dan Thomas / 06 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

All four of Brian Meehan's weekend runners won their races - landing one Betfair punter nearly £100,000

"We knew that Brian Meehan and Michael Bell would provide great insight when we signed them up, but for all four picks on one day to come home, landing a punter £100,000, was beyond all our expectations."

A Betfair punter won almost £100,000 after reading Brian Meehan's column on betting.betfair and backing the trainer's four runners in a £10 a line Yankee on Friday evening.

All four horses - Canaveral ([3.888] on Betfair vs Industry SP of [4.0]), Aciano ([7.156] vs [7.5]), Bea Remembered ([9.55] vs [8.5])
and Lhermitagewere ([22.85] vs [17.0]) - were highlighted out by Meehan in his Friday column for Betfair.

Meehan was confident on all his four runners that night and pointed our readers in the right direction to his 6070/1 Betfair SP four timer.

Stephen Kennelly, Racing Marketing Manager at Betfair, said: "We knew that Brian Meehan and Michael Bell would provide great insight when we signed them up, but for all four picks on one day to come home, landing a Betfair punter nearly £100,000, was beyond all our expectations.

"It was a good thing he did the Multiple on Betfair. He was 32% better off against an Industry SP Multiple; in fact he had over £20,000 more in his back pocket."

Key Facts:

The punter's Yankee was 32% better off with Betfair SP Multiples vs Industry SP (including 5% Betfair commission applied to each leg)

A single four timer was 40% better off with Betfair SP vs Industry SP Multiple (including commission)

Betfair SP after 5% commission vs Industry SP

Canaveral [3.888] vs [4.0]
Aciano [7.156] vs [7.5]
Bea Remembered [9.55] vs [8.5]
Lhermitage [22.85] vs [17.0]

Every weekend Brian Meehan and Michael Bell will give you their honest thoughts and opinion on all their runners chances in our Trainer Talk column.

Michael Bell talks us through the respective chances of all his horses who will be in action on Friday and Saturday. Look out for a video showing what goes on behind the scenes in his yard at the end of the piece....

It's a busy couple of days for Brian who sends horses to Doncaster, Bath and Lingfield - read his thoughts on all of them here......

Brian Meehan provides the lowdown on his weekend runners as they bid for glory at HQ and Haydock......

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