The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Charl Schwartzel – Brings course and current form to this week’s event
“Tiger Woods was just four shots off the lead after day one in 2007 but that’s the furthest any winner has been after day one in the last seven years.”
With breezy weather forecast for the second WGC event of the year, our man plumps for an octet of wind specialists at tasty prices, and he also has a plan for day one. Read his preview here...
Tournament
The qualifying criteria for the WGC Cadillac Championship are extensive, verging on exhausting, but for those that want to know, the field includes the following. The top 50 in the official world rankings, the top 20 from last year's Race to Dubai standings and the top 30 from last year's FedEx Cup standings, as well as the top 10 from this year's Race to Dubai and FedEx Cup standing, and the top two players from the2011 Japanese, South African, Australasian and Asian Order of Merits. And that's it; nobody else gets a look in.
Venue
TPC Blue Monster at Doral, Doral, Florida
Course Details
Par 72, 7334 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 71.48
Doral was nicknamed the Blue Monster because water's in play on half the holes and it used to play really tough. It's now officially called the Blue Monster which is somewhat ironic because if the wind doesn't blow it's far from monstrous, and the scoring average comes down year after year with the advancement of technology. The average between 1962 (when it opened) and 1965 was 74.74. Last year it averaged just 71.48. The first hole (par five) is the easiest and the 18th (par four) the hardest. The greens are slightly above average in size at 6,500 feet and there are 108 bunkers on the course. Like last week's venue, the entire track is Bermuda.
Useful Sites
Course details
Weather
Venue Site
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, 7.00pm on Thursday and Friday and 5.00pm on Saturday and Sunday.
Last Five Winners
2011 - Nick Watney -16
2010 - Ernie Els -18
2009 - Phil Mickelson -19
2008 - Geoff Ogilvy -17
2007 - Tiger Woods -10
Typical Winner
Length off the tee is definitely a plus this week and the par fives are likely to be key. The last two winners both played the par fives in double-figures under par. A fast start appears essential too. Tiger Woods was just four shots off the lead after day one in 2007 but that's the furthest any winner has been after day one in the last seven years. An ability to play well in windy conditions is often important and judging by the early forecasts, that will again be the case this year.
Market leaders
Mike Norman covers the first four in the betting here and he advocates dutching them at around [2.6]. Given the form of Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods and Lee Westwood on Sunday, and the state of Phil Mickelson's game before he went on holiday, he could well be right but at the prices available, I'm going to look elsewhere. It's asking a lot for Rory to go in again, the jury's currently out re Woods' temperament in the mix, Westwood can't putt for toffee and Lefty won't be too keen to see the wind up.
Selections
The forecast has already changed slightly since I first started looking on Sunday and it could scupper my plans if it changes much further. It suggested very strong winds but now it gives merely breezy conditions. It's always a dangerous game to base your picks on a weather forecast but I haven't gone mad by any means. My plan is to get involved properly towards the end of, and at the end of, day one (see above re winners up with the early pace), but I've still picked out a few to get me started.
Charl Schwartzel pushed Ernie Els all the way here two years ago, played very well last week, can handle the wind, and looked over-priced at [36.0]. I didn't get as much on as I'd have liked at that price but I'm taking it easy from the off anyway.
Rory McIlroy wasn't the only youngster playing well last weekend. Rickie Fowler was scything through the field in the blustery weather. The wind can't blow hard enough for Rickie and if it does get really tough, he's the man to be on.
At a triple-figure price I'm giving Kyle Stanley a chance on his event debut. He has the length and par five performance required to prosper and he can play Bermuda and handle the wind. He hasn't a brilliant record in Florida and he missed the cut last week but when he challenged so strongly at the Farmers Insurance Open he'd missed the cut the week before.
After that it's a bunch of quality wind exponents at barmy prices, so come on wind, get blowing!
WGC Cadillac Championship Selections:
Charl Schwartzel @ an average of [34.0]
Rickie Fowler @ [55.0]
Kyle Stanley @ [100.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [160.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [210.0]
Paul Casey @ [250.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [450.0]
Greg Chalmers @ [450.0]
I'll be back later with a preview of the weeks other event, the Puerto Rico Open.
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