Simon Rowlands: Value to be had with Cheltenham Festival Specials

Timeform Debate / Simon Rowlands / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will the Irish train more than 9 Festival winners this time round?

"...accommodate those who think it will be a bonanza Festival for Irish-trained horses again."

With Betfair having opened up a large range of Cheltenham Festival Special markets, Timeform's Head of Research and Development pinpoints just where the value lies...

Of all the excuses for not having a bet at the Cheltenham Festival, "there was not enough opportunity" would be about the least plausible if ever used. There are 27 races, featuring around 500 runners, and there exists just about every imaginable way of siding with or against each horse and each human participant.

In addition to win, place, forecast, back and lay, ante-post and in-running - to mention some of the main ones - there are several one-off markets on Betfair, to be found on the "Cheltenham Festival Specials" tab of GB horseracing.

As in any other form of betting, "form" study - or, more precisely in this instance, a consideration of history - is important. While some of the markets are (or at least should be) straightforward derivatives of prices to be found elsewhere, others require a bit more figuring out.

The following historical tables may help.

I will leave the predicting of the official description of the going for the opening race to others. Some say Clerk of The Course Simon Claisse calls it what he would like it be, rather than what it actually is: I couldn't possibly comment.

It should be possible to have a stab at the top jockey and top trainer betting by consideration of the top jockeys' and the top trainers' intended runners: Ruby Walsh is favourite at [1.69] to back for the former, while Willie Mullins is shortest at [2.52] to back for the latter.

One market that does interest me is that for Irish-trained winners. The Irish raiding party has won 32% of races over the last 10 years, which translates to an expectation of 8.5 winners from 27 races, though they did surpass that handsomely in 2011 with a record 13.

Yet, "more than 9 winners" (something which has been achieved only twice in history) is the clear market leader at [2.38]. The Irish have a strong team again, but that sort of price smacks of availability bias: it happened last year so it should happen again.

This looks a good opportunity to become a layer, if you are not one already, and to accommodate those who think it will be a bonanza Festival for Irish-trained horses again.

The longest SP winner market may tempt in those who look for "good things" at short prices. 212 of 236 Festival races in the last 10 years have gone to horses shorter than 33/1, 23 to horses at between 33/1 and 50/1 inclusive, and just 1 to a horse (dear old Mister McGoldrick in 2008) starting at bigger than 50/1.

If you treat these frequencies as indicative of probabilities, you get (remembering that even one 33/1+ winner trumps the "unders" and just one winner at >50/1 hands it to the "overs") a fair price of around [1.2] for the middle category, which has delivered in 9 years out of 10.

Don't let me stop you if that sort of price is your thing. But, as explained last year, percentage chances based on Betfair SPs as a true indication of horses' probabilities suggest the fair odds should be bigger than that. There is also the possibility of a remarkably large number of short-priced winners at this year's Festival. I'll pass.

A market that interests me more is the "Biggest Winning Distance" one. Historical margins at the Festival need to take into account the fact that there were fewer races in the past than now and that the same margins now would have been returned as shorter prior to 2009 due to tinkering in how margins are returned by the BHB/BHA.

The first table adjusts for these two factors in the "adjusted margin" column and adjusts for the latter factor in the "maximum adjusted margin" column.

The frequencies for margins come in at 232 of 236 races at less than 16 lengths, 3 at 16 to 22 lengths inclusive and just one (24-length winner Junior last year) at further. That implies fair odds of approximately [1.60], [3.8] and [9.0] respectively, and in this instance I think the case stacks up for backing "unders", which have delivered in 7 out of 10 years.

Doubters will point out that the preponderance of short-priced favourites increases the chance of at least one of them "lagging up". Well, it does, but not by as much as most people probably imagine.

Taken throughout jump racing, a 6/4 winner can be expected to win by only one and a half times as far as a 16/1 winner. It is only at very short prices of 4/9 or shorter that winning margins really start to take off.

This Cheltenham Festival may look easier to crack than most. But the vast majority of the races will still be ultra-competitive, and it's a good bet that none of them will be won by a monster margin.

Recommendations:

lay "more than 9 Irish winners" to lose 2 pts at 2.6 or shorter
4 pts back "biggest win distance less than 16 lengths" at 1.8 or bigger

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Grand National 2011: Simon Rowlands on the Specials Markets

Grand National Betting / Simon Rowlands / 05 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

The Chair at Aintree

"There is usually little incident from the first Canal Turn (fence eight) to the third obstacle on the final circuit (fence 19), with the exception of the formidable "Chair" (fence 15)."

Regular Betting.Betfair blogger Simon Rowlands give you a couple of clues as to how to make money on the Grand National without backing the winner...

The number of ways in which you can win and lose money at betting seems to increase with every year, and the market managers at Betfair are at their most creative when it comes to a race of the magnitude of the John Smith's Grand National, due to be run at 16:15 this Saturday at Aintree.

In addition to win markets, place markets, match bets and the like, there are likely to be all sorts of 'Specials' markets (due to be live by Midday on Thursday). You don't have to be a once-a-year punter to enjoy getting stuck into these, but it does help to know a bit of history to inform your choices.

The simple advice where "winning weight" (under 11-0 or 11-0 and over) and "Irish winner" (a simple yes/no proposition) are concerned is to derive a fair price from the win market, splitting the field into qualifiers in each category and summing the percentage chance of each.

Percentage chance is 100/P, where P is the prevailing Betfair decimal price. For instance, odds of 6.4 give a percentage of 100/6.4 = 15.6. Summed percentages of, say, 60 imply fair decimal odds for all qualifiers combined of 100/60 = 1.67.

Winning weights have been historically low, with seven of the last ten winners coming in at "unders". But this trend is very much subject to change regarding how the handicap is compiled, and two of the three "overs" have come in the last two years.

Fair odds for "winning distance" and "number of finishers" cannot be inferred directly from the win market, but past Grand Nationals are likely to be a decent guide. Six of the last ten winners on good or good to soft going have won by less than 6 lengths (even after adjustment has been made for different ways of returning margins over the years); three have won by between 6 and 12 lengths; and just one has won by more than 12 lengths.

The number of finishers, again for the last ten races run on good or good to soft going, has varied between nine and 21, with three at less than 12 finishers, six at 12 to 18 finishers and just one at more than 18 finishers.

The state of the going is important where finishers are concerned, with the softer the going the fewer the completions in general. The 1998 and 2001 Grand Nationals were run on bottomless ground and resulted in just six and four finishers respectively.

The ground at Aintree at the start of the week was described as "good to soft, good in places" on the National course and the long-term weather forecast is for little rain. A close(ish) finish and a mid-range number of completers deserve to be favourites in their respective markets as things stand.

There is also the prospect of getting a bet on even after things have got under way. The Grand National may seem like an example of utter and unpredictable chaos once the tape goes up, but the Form Book even manages to give guidance here.

You can expect departures to occur with a degree of predictability, but do be mindful of the possibility of a Black Swan event like the one in 1967 that put paid to all bar the 100/1-winner Foinavon at the 23rd fence which now bears his name!

The accompanying spreadsheet shows the non-completion rate at the various obstacles for the last ten Grand Nationals run on good and good to soft going. "Non-completion" means horses still in the race that attempted and failed to clear the obstacle in question. A faller late in the race is highly likely to be a bigger percentage of the remaining runners than one early on.

Grand National non completions

The figures show that Becher's Brook on the second circuit is the toughest obstacle, followed by the very first fence (at which point the runners and riders, on edge after the extended preliminaries, are often going too fast). There is usually little incident from the first Canal Turn (fence eight) to the third obstacle on the final circuit (fence 19), with the exception of the formidable "Chair" (fence 15).

There is little likelihood of a departure in the closing stages with the marked exception of fence 27, the fourth-last, an obstacle without a big reputation but with a ditch on the take-off side that is six-feet wide. Get over this and your horse is highly likely to finish the race if still in contention.

Hopefully, these figures may act as some guide if you are trying to weigh up the likelihood of the expected or unexpected occurring once the race has been turned "in play".

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls is yet to win the sport's biggest handicap prize, the Grand National, but this year he has made 10 entries in a bid to end that hoodoo. Here is Paul's assessment of all his current Grand National entries...

Jack Houghton, author of Winning on Betfair for Dummies, tells you how to place your first bet on Betfair -- in five easy steps....

All the info for the big day at Aintree...

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Cheltenham Festival Specials: Will Irish eyes be smiling?

The Cheltenham Festival / Billy Nash / 07 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Willie Mullins: Spearheads the Irish challenge at this year's Festival

"...there is always a chance of a surprise result (after all Ireland did beat England in cricket!) so let's be positive and suggest an interest on the Irish to have 8-9 winners at [3.75]"

Timeform's Billy Nash tries to locate the value in the Cheltenham Festival 'Number of Irish-Trained Winners' market...

Since the Festival was increased to four days in 2005 the number of Irish-trained winners has ranged from a high of ten in 2006 to just half that amount the following season. Things have levelled out a bit since with seven, nine and seven being the respective totals in the last three years. If the market is to be believed than it looks as if it will be a similar story this year with [2.8] the current odds available about 6-7 winners, but let's dig a little deeper to see if there is better value to be found elsewhere.

The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is a race that the Irish have traditionally done very well in down the years, including winning three of the last four renewals. Cue Card and Recession Proof head a formidable home team this time around but there will be a strong Irish challenge, though exactly how strong depends on Willie Mullins' running plans for his various entries.

At this stage it looks as if Zaidpour, who has been a shade disappointing since winning the Royal Bond in November, will be his main representative here, whilst the likes of Hidden Universe and Shot From The Hip are others that should give a good account.

Just over half an hour later sees the Arkle, in which the Irish will be seeking a third straight win, with Realt Dubh looking the pick of the entries at this stage.

Hurricane Fly holds a leading chance in what promises to be a fascinating renewal of the Champion Hurdle but, without a doubt, the best chance of an Irish-trained winner on the first day comes later on the card, with the Cross-Country Chase and David Nicholson Mares Hurdle. Since its inception in 2005, the Irish have dominated the former contest, and with Lacdoudal a notable absentee, it will be very disappointing if we fail to maintain our stranglehold, whilst the latter also looks Ireland's to lose, dual winner Quevega heading a strong challenge which also includes a trio of very talented novices; namely the unbeaten pair Our Girl Salley and Magen's Star as well as the much-improved Macville.

Another race I expect the Irish to win this season is the opener on day two, the National Hunt Chase. We have an embarrassment of riches here, with five of the top six in the ante-post market trained in Ireland. Quito de La Roque is already a dual Grade 2 winner over fences and will take plenty of beating if the ground comes up on the soft side, but a sounder surface will suit the Kerry National winner Alfa Beat who is on a six timer.

Oscars Well will be many people's idea of an Irish banker in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle and he will be ably backed up by a strong supporting cast which is likely to include at least one of So Young and Day of A Lifetime, both of whom are short on experience but possess enormous potential.

The RSA Chase often throws up a surprise result but the likes of Bostons Angel and Jessies Dream will warrant the utmost respect.

Master Minded has looked back to something near his very best this season but Big Zeb won't go down without a fight in the Champion Chase, whilst if Golden Silver can run to the level he is capable of in Ireland than he would also be in with a live chance.

The Irish suffered a rare reverse in the Champion Bumper last year, and with Samain, Lovethehigherlaw and Bold Optimist all ruled out, it is quite possible that we will fail to win it again this year. However, there have been plenty of whispers about Allure of Illusion in recent times and it is hard to know just how strong the British bumper form is.

Day three has been a bit of a disaster for the Irish in recent years and, even though it falls on St. Patrick's Day this year, one winner is probably the most we can hope for on what looks a particularly tough card.

Mourad, Fiveforthree and Solwhit (if he gets the trip), have each-way prospects in the World Hurdle but it is difficult to envisage one of them lowering the colours of Big Buck's or Grands Crus.

The Pertemps Final, Kim Muir and Byrne Group Chase are all very difficult handicaps; it is hard to know at this stage just what is going to turn up in the new look Jewson, but the defection of Somersby and injury to Riverside Theatre means that the Ryanair Chase is now wide open. Tranquil Sea disappointed in this last year but is unbeaten in two starts this season and has a good record when fresh.

Unfortunately, the final day may not be much better from an Irish point of view. It is highly unlikely that the Gold Cup will return to these shores for the first time since War of Attrition's victory in 2006 and our juveniles, with the exception of Unaccompanied, don't appear to be anything out of the ordinary.

The County Hurdle is just about the only handicap at the Festival that the Irish have done well in in recent times, winning three of the last four, and we are sure to be competitive in it again, Willie Mullins with several credible contenders, including Blackstairmountain, Final Approach and possibly the unexposed Earlson Gray.

We will also be well represented in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over three miles, but the Foxhunter is probably our last realistic chance of a winner, though our number one candidate, Enda Bolger's On The Fringe, is still far from certain to take his chance.

In truth, it isn't easy to find the value in this particular market. It seems reasonable to suggest that at least one of Hurricane Fly, Big Zeb and Tranquil Sea can win one of their respective races, whilst I think the Irish will win the Cross-Country Chase, the four-mile Chase and the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle. Therefore current odds of [7.6] about less than four winners makes little appeal. The Irish will be competitive in all the novices events, including the bumper, and it will be disappointing if we can't win at least two of these contests. It is unlikely that there will be more than one Irish-trained winner of a handicap, but there is always a chance of a surprise result (after all Ireland did beat England in cricket!) so let's be positive and suggest an interest on the Irish to have 8-9 winners at [3.75].

Recommendation

Back 8 or 9 winners @ [3.75] in the number of Irish-trained winners at the Cheltenham Festival market.

Timeform's Billy Nash tries to locate the value in the Cheltenham Festival 'Number of Irish-Trained Winners' market......

Our blogger takes a look at three of the Cheltenham Festival Specials markets available on Betfair......

Timeform's Phil Turner joins Alan Dudman to discuss the Arkle, the Jewson and the RSA Chase....

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Cheltenham Festival Specials: The outlook bleak for McCoy?

The Cheltenham Festival / Timeform / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

AP McCoy: Binocular his only major chance of the week?

"All in all, it could easily be a bleak four days at Prestbury Park for Tony McCoy, with Binocular his only major chance, and he’s no good thing by any means."

Timeform's Martin Dixon previews what might be in store for AP McCoy at Cheltenham 2011...

Along with Quevega, Time For Rupert and Big Buck's, one of the hottest favourites at this year's Cheltenham Festival is Ruby Walsh to yet again retain the Thomas Pink leading jockey award, trading currently at [2.56] to back. It's perhaps surprising that AP McCoy isn't next in line, with Barry Geraghty at [3.7], whilst 'the Champ' trades at a somewhat derogatory [9.2]. Derogatory, that is, as to his talents, but how many 'chances' does McCoy actually have in 2011? I'm left to delve.

I'm sure some of the stats boffins amongst us have this all sewn up; only twice since 1999 has McCoy ridden 2 or more winners at the Festival. Surely then, 0-1 winners is an odds-on chance. Steam in at [2.5]!

Of course, that's the simple approach. In reality, the stats of previous years are irrelevant, with McCoy all set for an entirely different book of rides, and the only way to forecast is to consider just what that book of rides is likely to consist of. Here goes...

We'll deal with the obvious first, with Binocular in the Champion Hurdle. It's a fiercely competitive renewal, almost certainly deeper than in 2010, but he was a decisive winner a year ago and has had a better preparation this time around. He's McCoy's big chance of the week. The worrying point for AP, though, is that beyond that his chances are much less obvious.

Day 1 will be crucial, not only does he ride Binocular but Starluck has now been confirmed for the Arkle, whilst Quantativeeasing is ante-post favourite for the closing Centenary Novices' Chase.

Starluck got off to an encouraging start over fences at Huntingdon last week and, with J.P. McManus not having an obvious Arkle contender, McCoy is set to retain the ride. Admittedly, it wasn't a strong race at Huntingdon, but his very smart hurdles form dictates that he's open to significant improvement and McCoy is the perfect partner for a horse with limited chasing experience.

If the chance of one horse sums up the whole week for AP, then it's probably Quantitiveeasing. Talk of him as an ante-post favourite may be misleading, as the newly-formed Centenary Novices' Chase is a very difficult race to get a handle on. He's a promising young chaser, no doubt, but so are many of those that he's likely to be up against.

Alongside Binocular, Albertas Run completed a Festival double for the Champion Jockey with success in last year's Ryanair, but he has a lot to prove after a poor run in the King George, whilst Captain Cee Bee's chances look remote in the Champion Chase.

As ever, there are likely to be some J.P. McManus-owned handicap plots for McCoy, with Sunnyhillboy one that stands out, but to cling your Festival winners' hopes on them is dangerous and, often, unfruitful.

All in all, it could easily be a bleak four days at Prestbury Park for Tony McCoy, with Binocular his only major chance, and he's no good thing by any means.

Those stats weren't so irrelevant after all, were they?

With only two weeks to the day before the cream of the hurdling crop navigate their way around Prestbury Park, before rising to the top of that famous hill, the shape of the race is now clearly defined, and it's multidimensional according to Timeform's Adam Brookes....

Timeform's Martin Dixon previews what might be in store for AP McCoy at Cheltenham 2011......

Whilst you may not be able to see past Binocular winning his second Champion Hurdle, or superstar stayer Big Buck's dominating once again in the World Hurdle, you may have also decided that the current odds on offer are too skinny for you to get involved. Well, help is on hand in the shape of the Betfair Cheltenham Specials markets....

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Cheltenham Festival Specials: Even the Odd bets could tempt you this year

The Cheltenham Festival / Adam Brookes / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Top jockey contender Robert Thornton looks to have his best chance with Medermit

"If you find Cheltenham Fever has really got to your head, then you might find yourself delving into some of the more obscure markets, possibly looking for a bet that’s at least going to get you past the opening day."

Whilst you may not be able to see past Binocular winning his second Champion Hurdle, or superstar stayer Big Buck's dominating once again in the World Hurdle, you may have also decided that the current odds on offer are too skinny for you to get involved. Well, help is on hand in the shape of the Betfair Cheltenham Specials markets.

If the betting for top jockey at the Festival has it right, then it seems Irish eyes will be smiling as Walsh [2.56], Geraghty [3.7] and McCoy [9.2] comfortably head the market, but with Medermit, Bensalem and Mille Chief all holding solid chances in their respective races, the [15.0] about Robert Thornton may tempt your clicking finger. Richard Johnson [13.0] also has some very nice rides to look forward to and he too seems a big price.

If you do fancy 'Choc' to be top jock in two week's time, it would probably make sense to also back his boss Alan King [12.0] to be top trainer , as it looks as though that is where the ammunition is primarily going to come from. Of the home defence, it's the usual suspects in Nicholls [2.4] and Henderson [2.26] who show the way, with leader of the invasion Willie Mullins [6.0] most likely to upset the front two according to the market.

With Hurricane Fly, Big Zeb, Golden Silver, Unaccompanied and a host of other Irish invaders holding strong chances at the Festival, you may well be tempted by the '6-7 winners' bet on the market open for predicting the number of Irish-trained winners. On the other hand, the number of British-based fancies might sway you in favour of the odds on offer about 'less than 4 winners' being trained in the Emerald Isle.

If Cheltenham Fever has really got to your head, then you might find yourself delving into some of the more obscure markets, possibly looking for a bet that's at least going to get you past the opening day. If this is you, then the one you may find to your liking is the 'Longest SP winner' bet where '33/1-50/1 inclusive' [1.61] appears all the rage. However, if you don't envisage any major shocks in store, the [6.4] for 'Shorter than 33/1' might be more up your street.

If the pre-Festival jolly-up has well and truly loosened your punting defences, you may also find the 'Odd vs. Even' bet extremely appealing, as you must decide, according to racecard number, whether you think odd or even numbers will provide the most Cheltenham winners. Should indecision grab you, however, you can play it down the middle with a tie.

Finally, and returning to the opening paragraph, there is also a market on 'Championship Accumulators' for those of you who did indeed fancy Binocular to win the Champion Hurdle and Big Bucks's to win the World Hurdle, and the like. That particular bet is currently available at [7.6] but I'm sure there are many other permutations that may take your eye in the wonderful, and sometimes weird, world of Special Bets.

With only two weeks to the day before the cream of the hurdling crop navigate their way around Prestbury Park, before rising to the top of that famous hill, the shape of the race is now clearly defined, and it's multidimensional according to Timeform's Adam Brookes....

Timeform's Martin Dixon previews what might be in store for AP McCoy at Cheltenham 2011......

Whilst you may not be able to see past Binocular winning his second Champion Hurdle, or superstar stayer Big Buck's dominating once again in the World Hurdle, you may have also decided that the current odds on offer are too skinny for you to get involved. Well, help is on hand in the shape of the Betfair Cheltenham Specials markets....

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Cheltenham Festival Specials: Even the Odd bets could tempt you this year

The Cheltenham Festival / Adam Brookes / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Top jockey contender Robert Thornton looks to have his best chance with Medermit

"If you find Cheltenham Fever has really got to your head, then you might find yourself delving into some of the more obscure markets, possibly looking for a bet that’s at least going to get you past the opening day."

Whilst you may not be able to see past Binocular winning his second Champion Hurdle, or superstar stayer Big Buck's dominating once again in the World Hurdle, you may have also decided that the current odds on offer are too skinny for you to get involved. Well, help is on hand in the shape of the Betfair Cheltenham Specials markets.

If the betting for top jockey at the Festival has it right, then it seems Irish eyes will be smiling as Walsh [2.56], Geraghty [3.7] and McCoy [9.2] comfortably head the market, but with Medermit, Bensalem and Mille Chief all holding solid chances in their respective races, the [15.0] about Robert Thornton may tempt your clicking finger. Richard Johnson [13.0] also has some very nice rides to look forward to and he too seems a big price.

If you do fancy 'Choc' to be top jock in two week's time, it would probably make sense to also back his boss Alan King [12.0] to be top trainer , as it looks as though that is where the ammunition is primarily going to come from. Of the home defence, it's the usual suspects in Nicholls [2.4] and Henderson [2.26] who show the way, with leader of the invasion Willie Mullins [6.0] most likely to upset the front two according to the market.

With Hurricane Fly, Big Zeb, Golden Silver, Unaccompanied and a host of other Irish invaders holding strong chances at the Festival, you may well be tempted by the '6-7 winners' bet on the market open for predicting the number of Irish-trained winners. On the other hand, the number of British-based fancies might sway you in favour of the odds on offer about 'less than 4 winners' being trained in the Emerald Isle.

If Cheltenham Fever has really got to your head, then you might find yourself delving into some of the more obscure markets, possibly looking for a bet that's at least going to get you past the opening day. If this is you, then the one you may find to your liking is the 'Longest SP winner' bet where '33/1-50/1 inclusive' [1.61] appears all the rage. However, if you don't envisage any major shocks in store, the [6.4] for 'Shorter than 33/1' might be more up your street.

If the pre-Festival jolly-up has well and truly loosened your punting defences, you may also find the 'Odd vs. Even' bet extremely appealing, as you must decide, according to racecard number, whether you think odd or even numbers will provide the most Cheltenham winners. Should indecision grab you, however, you can play it down the middle with a tie.

Finally, and returning to the opening paragraph, there is also a market on 'Championship Accumulators' for those of you who did indeed fancy Binocular to win the Champion Hurdle and Big Bucks's to win the World Hurdle, and the like. That particular bet is currently available at [7.6] but I'm sure there are many other permutations that may take your eye in the wonderful, and sometimes weird, world of Special Bets.

With only two weeks to the day before the cream of the hurdling crop navigate their way around Prestbury Park, before rising to the top of that famous hill, the shape of the race is now clearly defined, and it's multidimensional according to Timeform's Adam Brookes....

Timeform's Martin Dixon previews what might be in store for AP McCoy at Cheltenham 2011......

Whilst you may not be able to see past Binocular winning his second Champion Hurdle, or superstar stayer Big Buck's dominating once again in the World Hurdle, you may have also decided that the current odds on offer are too skinny for you to get involved. Well, help is on hand in the shape of the Betfair Cheltenham Specials markets....

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