Premier League Betting: Reading v QPR

"It’s really no wonder that Reading are bottom of the league when you consider that they have conceded the first goal in 21 of their 34 games."

Reading and QPR meet in the last chance saloon on Sunday, with both teams needing a win to have a chance of survival. Dan Fitch picks out the value bets...

Reading v QPR
Sunday, KO 13:13, Live on Sky Sports 1

I'm sure that when the good folk at Sky decided to televise this match, they envisaged that at least one of these teams would still be in with a shot of survival. 

Instead we are left with a scenario where any loser will be relegated, while the only reward for the winner is to survive for another week or two. The worst result for all concerned is the draw, which could see both teams relegated if Aston Villa were to get a point on Monday.

All of which suggests a game where both teams will go at it with reckless abandon. The chances are that they will both get relegated anyway, so why not go down swinging?

Both sides teams are in shocking form considering that they're meant to have been fighting for survival. In Reading's defence, they at least have the excuse that their players really aren't good enough for the Premier League. Just one point from the last 27 is surely confirmation of this.

QPR have talent within their squad, but the ill-considered way that it has been put together has not been conducive to producing a team. They started March with back-to-back wins, but have since lost four and drawn one of their next five games.

Where both teams have been consistent is the amount of goals that their games have produced. Some 11 of Reading's last 14 games have produced over 2.5 goals, while QPR have done likewise in four of their last seven matches. 

With so much on the line it would be disappointing if both sides weren't throwing the kitchen sink at each other, so over 2.5 goals at 1.9210/11 and the 1.715/7 for both teams to score, look like shrewd investments. 

When it comes to who will score, the only player in any sort of form in front of goal is QPR's Loic Remy. Even so, the 2.35/4 on offer for the French striker to find the net looks a bit short. The 6.25/1 for him to score first looks a better bet. 

Reading score a lot of late goals, so it is QPR who are likelier to open the scoring and can be backed to do so at 2.111/10. The home side are priced at 1.9520/21 to score the last goal.

It's really no wonder that Reading are bottom of the league when you consider that they have conceded the first goal in 21 of their 34 games. Given the season these two teams have had it would be no surprise if the produced the result that neither wants - a draw. The half-time QPR/full-time draw double result is available at 15.014/1 and could be worth a small stakes bet.

Perhaps the most pertinent market to examine as these two scrap it out at the foot of the league is Betfair's Rock Bottom market. Reading are the 1.674/6 favourites, with QPR at 2.47/5. While they're both level on points and are separated by just one goal, it is Reading who have the tougher fixtures, with their next home game against Manchester City. Therefore, the odds look about right.

All in all, this game probably has more meaning as a sort of pre-season friendly between two of the contenders for the 2013-14 Championship title, than it does over the relegation battle.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9210/11
Back Loic Remy to score first at 6.25/1
Back QPR half-time/the draw full-time at 15.014/1

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Opta Stats: Reading v QPR

"10 of Reading’s 37 league goals this season have been provided by substitutes. Reading are 1.9520/21 to score the last goal."

Reading face QPR and the loser will be relegated. With the stakes as high as they can be, who will handle the pressure best and live to fight another day?

There have been five red cards in the last five league meetings between QPR and Reading. You can find odds of 3.052/1 on there being a sending off.

Reading are the only team to average less than 40% possession in the Barclays Premier League this season (39%). QPR are 2.9215/8 to defeat them.

QPR have taken one point from their last five Premier league games. A Reading win can be backed at 2.68/5.

Reading have taken one point from their last nine Premier League games. They are 1.664/6 to finish rock bottom of the Premier League.

10 of Reading's 37 league goals this season have been provided by substitutes. Reading are 1.9520/21 to score the last goal.

Only two sides in Premier League history have won fewer games by this stage of the season than QPR (Derby 1 in 07-08 and Sunderland 2 in 05-06). QPR are 2.3811/8 to finish rock bottom.

Whoever loses this match will definitely be relegated. If it is a draw then a point from Aston Villa on Monday night will relegate both sides. The draw is available at 3.613/5.

QPR have gone three hours and five minutes without scoring. A Reading clean sheet is priced at 3.8514/5.

Reading have hit 100 shots on target this season, fewer than any other team. A QPR clean sheet is 4.216/5.

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Premier League: Reading opt for Adkins as new boss

"To the neutral observer, Adkins' instalment could easily be interpreted as a decision taken with next season in mind, rather than one intended to bring about the great escape."

With news filtering through of Nigel Adkins appointment at Reading, Christian Crowther suggests Premier League survival is still unlikely...

Out of a job in January and reappointed in March, it's been a mercifully short period of unemployment for axed Southampton boss Nigel Adkins.

Reading have now confirmed Adkins' appointment as manager, with just eight games left of the Premier League season and the Royals in 19th place, seven points adrift of safety.

It looks a mountainous task to keep Reading up from here, reflected by their odds of 1.091/11 for the drop, though the 48-year-old has already been quick to assure fans that is his intention.

"We've got to believe we can do it. I want to be in the Premier League. I'm excited about the future. I've had two weeks off. I am passionate about football, they are fighting, they have a good spirit and I'm looking forward to Arsenal on Saturday. We will scrap, it's about the here and now. We have to concentrate on the Premier League."

Whether or not Adkins can keep Reading afloat is a hard question to answer, but considering he has just five months of Premier League managerial experience on his CV, the chances have to be slim.

Despite showing a flicker of recovery at the start of the year, Reading have since flat-lined, losing five straight league games ahead of their clash with Arsenal at the Emirates on Saturday.

With the Gunners chasing down Tottenham in fifth and having already beaten Reading twice this season (once after extra time), it's difficult to see the visitors getting anything in north London. The draw is currently rated at 6.611/2, but it's clearly wins that they need now.

To the neutral observer, Adkins' instalment could easily be interpreted as a decision taken with next season in mind, rather than one intended to bring about the great escape. 

After all, Southampton's board clearly didn't trust his ability to keep them in the top flight and, though it was a very harsh axing, the fact that Adkins didn't appear to be Reading's first choice judging by their pursuit of Gus Poyet is significant.

He does however have proven form in getting Southampton promoted to the Premier League (not to mention achieving three more promotions from League One) and, in all probability, this will be his task again next season. 

Whatever the outcome happens to be from the remainder of the season, this does look a good move for Adkins, as Reading is a club very much set up for Premier League involvement and supposedly with some money to spend in the summer.

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Manchester United v Reading: Champions-elect to brush aside Royals

"And just last month United hosted Saturday's opponents in the FA Cup, and with similar line-ups to what we can expect here, the game was 0-0 for 70 minutes."

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 3.711/4

Manchester United are edging closer and closer to the Premier League title, and out-of-form Reading are not going to be able to stop the Red Devils in their tracks says Mike Norman...

Manchester United v Reading
Saturday 17:30, live on ESPN

Manchester United will go into the game against manager-less Reading with either a reduced lead at the top of the table or the knowledge that they can virtually wrap up the title, depending on how neighbours Manchester City get on away to Everton earlier in the day.

Not that any of this will matter to Sir Alex Ferguson - or at least he'll say it doesn't matter - as his primary aim will be to beat Reading with as less fuss as possible before travelling to Stamford Bridge for a FA Cup quarter-final replay on Wednesday night.

Of course, Sir Alex won't take Saturday's opponents lightly, but he's almost certain to re-shuffle his squad with one eye on Chelsea in midweek. And that makes trying to predict how United will line-up a far more difficult task than predicting the first six home in a 30-runner Cheltenham handicap.

What we do know is that Nani is out after suffering a hamstring injury, while Phil Jones and Paul Scholes are also unavailable. Nemanja Vidic and Robin van Persie should return to the starting line-up after beginning on the bench last weekend.

Reading sacked Brian McDermott on Monday leaving any incoming manager just nine games to save the Berkshire club from relegation; eight if we assume that a new boss won't be in place prior to the trip to Old Trafford.

Assuming that's the case then former Reading academy coach Eamonn Dolan will be responsible for naming the side to play United. He will be without injured duo Adam Federici and Jimmy Kebe, while Pavel Pogrebnyak completes a three-game ban.

Match Odds

Opta tell us that Reading haven't beat United for over 75 years; I am telling you that Reading won't be beating United in this encounter. OK, that's not exactly the bravest call I've ever made with the home side available to back at just 1.182/11, but it's just impossible to make any case for the away side... so I won't! Let's move on.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Yes, United will win this game, I'm certain of that. And yes, they'll probably win the game very comfortably, but to see Over 2.5 Goals available to back at just 1.351/3 is strange to say the least. I don't have the information to back it up, but I'm pretty confident that there hasn't been a Premier League game all season where Overs has traded so low prior to a match.

For that reason alone I believe Unders is worth a wager at 3.711/4 in this market, especially from a back-to-lay perspective.

There have been many instances at Old Trafford this season where the home side have started in a pedestrian fashion against some 'lesser' clubs - Wigan, QPR, West Ham (league and cup), WBA for example - where trading Under 2.5 Goals would have proved very profitable.

And just last month United hosted Saturday's opponents in the FA Cup, and with similar line-ups to what we can expect here, the game was 0-0 for 70 minutes.

Other Markets

It will take a brave man to think that Reading can take the lead in this game, but if you think they can then it's worth pointing out the Opta stats that tell us The Royals have lost at total of 23 points from winning positions this season, whereas United have won 27 points from losing positions - the most in the Premier League.

The Champions-elect are 6.05/1 in the Man Utd Win from Behind market currently, but I'm sure you'd get matched at much higher should you put a request in.

And one last bet worth considering is the Draw/Man Utd option at 5.79/2 in the Half Time/Full Time market. Similar to my reasoning for backing Unders, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Reading went ultra-defensive and United take a little time to find their stride.

Recommeded Bet

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 3.711/4

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Value Alert: Reading game looks ripe for over 2.5 goals

"Saturday's relegation blockbuster at the Madejski has potential value lurking in the goals market, as two of the Premier League's most suspect defences square up."

It's that time of the week where Christian Crowther looks for potential value in the upcoming Premier League fixtures...

The Value Alert widget contrasts odds calculated using an algorithm that takes into account short and long-term form, variation in home and away performance, records against teams in specific parts of the table and recent head-to-head results with the latest Betfair prices. This flags up the area in which public perception most contradicts statistical evidence in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 goal markets, identifying potential back or lay value.

Occasionally, one has to put one's hands up and admit a defeat. Last week was an instance where value didn't translate to profit, as demonstrated by Wigan's failure to produce the form that hoisted them out of the relegation zone when entertaining Liverpool.

West Brom, however, did run Chelsea close in their visit to Stamford Bridge in keeping with the widget's prediction that there was more in it than the price suggested for the Baggies.

Still, there's no point dwelling as there are plenty more alerts worth a look in the forthcoming fixtures.

According to the Value Finder, Tottenham's odds of winning at Liverpool, priced by Betfair at 4.216/5, could actually be shaved quite drastically, with a difference of 1.9 in the offing for potential Spurs' backers.

Tottenham have made themselves particularly tricky customers for Liverpool in recent times too. The Lilywhites have not lost to the Reds in their last five Premier League meetings, winning three of those, including a 2-0 victory at Anfield two seasons ago.

This upcoming collision sees both teams in great form, but recent history points to more touchline-sprinting from AVB come Sunday.

Meanwhile, Swansea's trip to West Brom is worthy of a closer look. The Swans banished any notion of a Capital One Cup hangover by beating a resurgent Newcastle last time out and, the Value Finder suggests their price of 3.259/4 may be a little on the generous side.

Saturday's relegation blockbuster at the Madejski has potential value lurking in the goals market, as two of the Premier League's most suspect defences square up.

When you consider that every one of Reading's last 11 games have breached the 2.5 mark, squeezing out 0.37-worth of value by backing this game to follow suit at 1.865/6 should prove worthwhile.

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Chelsea v Reading: Goals in the offing for hosts

"Reading have only won seven of their 38 road trips in the Premier League to date."

Chelsea's rejigged side made an impressive start at Wigan and will no doubt relish the chance to put on a show for their fans against Reading...

Chelsea v Reading, Wednesday 19:45, Match odds: Chelsea 1.271/4, Reading 15.5n/a, The Draw 6.411/2

Reading will be delighted after salvaging a point from their opening fixture with Stoke, but a midweek trip to Chelsea will be an altogether more daunting experience.

A lot was made in pre-season about how Chelsea's new wealth of attacking talent would migrate into the side, however Eden Hazard in particular proved that he could walk the walk as well as talk the talk.

Hazard was involved in both goals against Wigan and already the Belgian looks like becoming one of those players with the ability to win games on his own.

With such encouraging debuts for new stars Hazard and Oscar, you would expect Chelsea to overwhelm the Royals in defence as they did in the early stages at the DW Stadium.

If Roman Abramovich wanted attacking football then he also must have cracked a smile when witnessing the performance of Chelsea's new marauding right winger, Branislav Ivanovic!

The west Londoners laid down an impressive marker at Wigan and in front of their fans you just feel that the Blues will outclass newly promoted Reading.

The teams have only met four times in the Premier League, with Chelsea winning all but one of them and drawing the other 2-2.

The Berkshire sides' away record against the big teams makes fairly woeful reading too; in their previous stint in the top flight, Reading took only five away points in total against last season's top six clubs. And as Opta tell us, Reading have only won seven of their 38 road trips in the Premier League to date.

One shred of positivity though is that the visitors have managed to find the back of the net in 19 of their last 20 games, albeit against lesser opposition. It is difficult to look beyond the home win here at 1.271/4.

Chelsea to score in both halves

With Chelsea's beginning the season so strongly, there is potential here for a bit of a goal fest.

With the likes of Hazard, Juan Mata, Fernando Torres, Frank Lampard and Oscar all providing a goal threat, it is difficult to see Reading keeping the hosts out in either half and at 1.774/5, this makes an attractive punt.

Stamford Bridge is traditionally a prosperous home for Chelsea, in the last three league games of last season there, they plundered eight goals, only failing to register twice there in the whole of the 2011/12 Premier League campaign.

Sending off

Given the derby-like nature of this fixture, it's not at all surprising that it has thrown up a few disciplinary issues over the years.

As Opta tell us, there have been three red cards in the four Premier League games between Reading and Chelsea (two for Reading, one for Chelsea), so
backing a red card at 5.39/2 has a certain sadistic pull. Calm down boys.

Best Bet: Back Chelsea to score in both halves @ 1.774/5
Other Recommended Bet: Back there to be a sending off @ 5.39/2

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Championship Previews: Back Reading to cement promotion push

Championship / Andrew French / 05 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Reading players celebrate following their crucial win over West Ham last weekend

"Reading have won 11 of their last 13 games including last week's 4-2 success at promotion rivals West Ham."

It's all about momentum at this stage of the season, and Reading have it says Andrew French as the Royals look to cement their promotion push by beating inconsistent Leeds.

Reading v Leeds, KO: Good Friday 14:00, live on Sky Sports 1, Match Odds: Reading [1.62], Leeds [6.4], The Draw [4.2]

Unless they suddenly hit a streak of good form, Leeds look destined for another season of Championship football: and a trip to Reading is the last thing you'd want when trying to kick-start a run to carry you into the play-offs. Neil Warnock has said himself he'd be surprised if his side go up this year, and given they have won only two of their last eight, you can see why.

Reading, meanwhile, have been imperious since the turn of the year. They have won 11 of their last 13 games including last week's 4-2 success at promotion rivals West Ham. The Royals have won their last six at home, and have generally taken control of recent games at the Madejski early on: in each of their last five home games they have been in front at the break and gone on to win. Against a side with such fragile confidence as Leeds, they can do the same again here.

Back Reading HT/Reading FT @ [2.6]

Nottingham Forest v Bristol City, KO: Saturday 17:20, live on Sky Sports 2, Match Odds: Nottm Forest [1.83], Bristol City [5.0], The Draw [3.8]

It's probably taken longer than he would have liked, but Steve Cotterill appears to have guided Nottingham Forest to safety. They were next to bottom as recently as mid-February but a run of only two defeats in 10 has lifted them up to 19th and six points clear of the drop zone.

Bristol City are heading in the opposite direction amid a sequence of just one win in 13 games - they were 19th at the end of January, and now they are 22nd. They have gone seven without an away win, during which time they have scored just one goal. A win here would just about end Forest's lingering concerns, and with the current gulf in form, home advantage should be telling.

Back Nottm Forest @ [1.83]

Watford v Blackpool, KO: Good Friday 15:00, Match Odds: Watford [2.66], Blackpool [2.84], The Draw [3.5]

Being a Watford fan, I have to confess I expected to be sweating about relegation around now. So, the achievements of Sean Dyche and his squad have been a hugely pleasant surprise: I certainly could never have foreseen them having a chance of reaching the play-offs. Yet the Hornets are the in-form side at the moment, unbeaten in seven and with three successive wins to their credit.

On-loan Manchester United keeper Tomasz Kuszczak has clearly made a difference with three clean sheets in his last four outings: Watford had only managed seven shut-outs in 33 games before he arrived.

I can see the Hornets improving their recent run of four wins in six at home against a Blackpool side that has been inconsistent despite their high current placing in the league table. Ian Holloway's side claimed a fine win over leaders Southampton last weekend, but it was only their second success in seven attempts. They have lost their last three away games and conceded eight goals in the process.

Back Watford @ [2.66]

West Ham will have to arrest a run of five successive home draws if they are to climb above Reading into the automatic promotion places......

There's a huge game at the top of the table when West Ham host Reading, but Andrew French also previews Coventry and Portsmouth's games as they attempt to avoid relegation....

After five home draws in a row and seven draws from their last 10 games it's been a frustrating time for West Ham, but Andrew French believes they are an excellent price to beat out-of-form Peterborough in midweek....

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