IPL Betting: Kings XI Punjab vs Rajasthan Royals

"Picking the winner therefore boils down to which side can be better trusted to score a massive total and on that count, it has to be Rajasthan at 1.910/11. Whereas they bat all the way down, Punjab's top and lower order is weak."

From looking down and out, Kings XI Punjab stormed back into the play-off race with a remarkable run chase last time. Paul Krishnamurty, however, reckons their momentum will be stalled by title-challenging Rajasthan...  

Kings XI Punjab vs Rajasthan Royals
Start Time: BST (11:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com

Kings XI Punjab

Despite rarely looking like play-off material, Kings XI are far from out of it. They'll need to win four of their last five matches, but that's exactly how many are at home, where their record so far is three from four. The latest victory needed a truly remarkable innings from David Miller, the third fastest century in T20 history, to turn around a game that Bangalore had comprehensively bossed until his arrival at the crease. Miller has been easily their star man but, to make further progress, he'll need better back-up.

Rajasthan Royals

Thanks primarily to a 100% home record, Rajasthan are almost in the play-offs. Using historical comparisons of the points table, one more win should be enough, two more from their last four games would be plenty. Monday's nine-wicket victory over Delhi was as facile as they come in IPL. All the top-three look in fine touch and with Brad Hodge coming in at six, this side has some huge totals in them. 
First Innings Runs
Just how many runs are enough at Mohali? The last two first innings totals of 185 and 190 were chased down, the latter with two overs to spare. Clearly the usual quote around 3.55/2 for 180 and over appeals, although as always, much depends which team bats first. I remain sceptical about Punjab's depth if Miller doesn't perform and would be more inclined towards backing unders when they bat first. If Rajasthan get first crack though, don't hesitate to back 180 and 200 plus because they certainly have enough depth.

Match odds

Everything we've seen so far at Mohali suggests this match will be high-scoring. Picking the winner therefore boils down to which side can be better trusted to score a massive total and on that count, it has to be Rajasthan at 1.910/11. Whereas they bat all the way down, Punjab's top and lower order is weak. Fast bowlers often thrive early on at Mohali, so I could see James Faulkner making swift inroads, again leaving Punjab reliant on Miller.

Top Punjab batsman

Miller has now top-scored in four of the last six Punjab's innings so could be due a failure. His partner for Monday's remarkable chase was Rajagopal Sathish so, having showed he's no slouch with the bat, could be worth following regularly around the 15.014/1 mark in a side prone to early collapse and often reliant on the middle order to save them.

Top Rajasthan batsman

It's easy to make a strong case for several Rajasthan batsmen, particularly Rahul Dravid, Ajinkya Rahane or Shane Watson, one of whom is likely to bat through most of the innings. On this occasion, I'll choose Watson for his ability to clear the boundaries, which is usually the criteria at Mohali.
Recommended bet

Back Rajasthan Royals @ 1.910/11

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IPL Betting: Delhi Daredevils v Rajasthan Royals

"Since winning the very first IPL under Shane Warne’s stewardship, the Royals have been annual underachievers in this competition but they have a strong line up that suggests they should improve on last season."

The Daredevils play their second game of IPL 6 and while they may be clear favourites, Rajasthan Royals should provide a tough challenge to a home side who are clearly missing some key players, says Matt Harris

Delhi Daredevils v Rajasthan Royals
Start Time: 11:30 BST
TV: Live on ITV4 and ITV.com

Delhi Daredevils

Having won the Champions League T20 just a few months ago, Mahela Jayawardene's side were highly fancied to lift their first IPL trophy but a disastrous prelude to the tournament robbed them of key batsmen Kevin Pietersen and Jesse Ryder, leaving the decision to sell Ross Taylor to Pune an even more bizarre one.

Worse was to follow as Virender Sehwag pulled out of the opening match with KKR due to a back spasm while Morne Morkel, leading wicket take in 2012, is involved in the knockout stages of South Africa's domestic Ram Slam.

Jayawardene has said that he expects Sehwag to return for Saturday's game but Morkel is playing in Sunday's Ram Slam final so the hosts are still looking depleted ahead of this vital clash.

Rajasthan Royals

Since winning the very first IPL under Shane Warne's stewardship, the Royals have been annual underachievers in this competition but they have a strong line up that suggests they should improve on last season when they finished seventh in the group table.

40 year old Rahul Dravid captains and coaches a squad that contains quality batters such as Shane Watson, Brad Hodge and Ajinkya Ranhane. In the bowling department, Shaun Tait's radar needs to be switched on and if the Aussie can find his range then he can lead a competent attack that includes Sreesanth, Fidel Edwards and the veteran Brad Hogg.

Age and fitness could be an issue for Rajasthan over the course of a very long tournament but they should certainly be fresh enough to upset the odds in their tournament opener.

Venue and Conditions

The Feroz Shah Kotla stadium is known for producing dry and dusty first class pitches and while the T20 track isn't going to turn square from ball one, runs are traditionally hard to come by.

2012's IPL proved that a par score is around 150 - 155 so don't expect a run feast in Saturday's contest.

Match Odds

The Daredevils are favourites at 1.654/6 but seem to rely too heavily on Jayawardene, David Warner and a potentially patched up Sehwag. With Johan Botha coming in at number six against KKR, they have a long tail and the Royals look particularly generous at 2.447/5.

Top Delhi Batsman

Skipper Jayawardene stood out from his team mates with a sublime 66 on Wednesday and could be an obvious choice at 3.7511/4 in the Fixed Odds market but if the Daredevils can prevent the Royals from taking an early wicket, David Warner should be able to play with more freedom. Warner looks the better bet here at odds of 3.7511/4. Note - these are Fixed Odds prices; better prices may be available on the Exchange nearer start-time.

Top Rajasthan Batsman

Shane Watson will attract a lot of money in this market at 3.7511/4 (on Fixed Odds) but fellow Aussie Brad Hodge has been in superb form in his freelance T20 activities over the last twelve months. After prolific displays in the Big Bash and Bangladesh Premier League, Hodge is the better option at odds of 5.04/1.

Recommended bet: Back Rajasthan Royals to win at 2.447/5.

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Manchester United v Reading: Champions-elect to brush aside Royals

"And just last month United hosted Saturday's opponents in the FA Cup, and with similar line-ups to what we can expect here, the game was 0-0 for 70 minutes."

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 3.711/4

Manchester United are edging closer and closer to the Premier League title, and out-of-form Reading are not going to be able to stop the Red Devils in their tracks says Mike Norman...

Manchester United v Reading
Saturday 17:30, live on ESPN

Manchester United will go into the game against manager-less Reading with either a reduced lead at the top of the table or the knowledge that they can virtually wrap up the title, depending on how neighbours Manchester City get on away to Everton earlier in the day.

Not that any of this will matter to Sir Alex Ferguson - or at least he'll say it doesn't matter - as his primary aim will be to beat Reading with as less fuss as possible before travelling to Stamford Bridge for a FA Cup quarter-final replay on Wednesday night.

Of course, Sir Alex won't take Saturday's opponents lightly, but he's almost certain to re-shuffle his squad with one eye on Chelsea in midweek. And that makes trying to predict how United will line-up a far more difficult task than predicting the first six home in a 30-runner Cheltenham handicap.

What we do know is that Nani is out after suffering a hamstring injury, while Phil Jones and Paul Scholes are also unavailable. Nemanja Vidic and Robin van Persie should return to the starting line-up after beginning on the bench last weekend.

Reading sacked Brian McDermott on Monday leaving any incoming manager just nine games to save the Berkshire club from relegation; eight if we assume that a new boss won't be in place prior to the trip to Old Trafford.

Assuming that's the case then former Reading academy coach Eamonn Dolan will be responsible for naming the side to play United. He will be without injured duo Adam Federici and Jimmy Kebe, while Pavel Pogrebnyak completes a three-game ban.

Match Odds

Opta tell us that Reading haven't beat United for over 75 years; I am telling you that Reading won't be beating United in this encounter. OK, that's not exactly the bravest call I've ever made with the home side available to back at just 1.182/11, but it's just impossible to make any case for the away side... so I won't! Let's move on.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Yes, United will win this game, I'm certain of that. And yes, they'll probably win the game very comfortably, but to see Over 2.5 Goals available to back at just 1.351/3 is strange to say the least. I don't have the information to back it up, but I'm pretty confident that there hasn't been a Premier League game all season where Overs has traded so low prior to a match.

For that reason alone I believe Unders is worth a wager at 3.711/4 in this market, especially from a back-to-lay perspective.

There have been many instances at Old Trafford this season where the home side have started in a pedestrian fashion against some 'lesser' clubs - Wigan, QPR, West Ham (league and cup), WBA for example - where trading Under 2.5 Goals would have proved very profitable.

And just last month United hosted Saturday's opponents in the FA Cup, and with similar line-ups to what we can expect here, the game was 0-0 for 70 minutes.

Other Markets

It will take a brave man to think that Reading can take the lead in this game, but if you think they can then it's worth pointing out the Opta stats that tell us The Royals have lost at total of 23 points from winning positions this season, whereas United have won 27 points from losing positions - the most in the Premier League.

The Champions-elect are 6.05/1 in the Man Utd Win from Behind market currently, but I'm sure you'd get matched at much higher should you put a request in.

And one last bet worth considering is the Draw/Man Utd option at 5.79/2 in the Half Time/Full Time market. Similar to my reasoning for backing Unders, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Reading went ultra-defensive and United take a little time to find their stride.

Recommeded Bet

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 3.711/4

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IPL Betting: Rajasthan Royals v Bangalore

Indian Premier League - IPL / Ed Hawkins / 11 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Chris Gayle is going through a real purple patch at the moment but if he goes early Bangalore may struggle

"There is very little faith in the Royals at a massive [2.78]. It looks
huge and we have to try to understand why. Bangalore are as short as
1.53.It is almost certainly the Gayle factor. He has been largely
responsible for a streak that has seen Bangalore win five consecutive
matches."

He may be one of the most explosive batsmen in the world and he's in pretty good nick at the moment but the Betfair market seems to be expecting a whole lot from Chris Gayle today. If he fails, Rajasthan may prove to be a cracking bet, says Ed Hawkins.

Rajasthan

Beaten last time out by Chennai, Rajasthan could shuffle their pack and hand a recall to Stuart Binny. Ross Taylor, with 168 runs in 10 games, is vulnerable. The Royals also need Shane Watson to turn up. He has only 187 runs so far.

Bangalore

This will be Tillakaratne Dilshan's last game before leaving to prepare for Sri Lanka's tour of England. Although Chris Gayle has taken the plaudits for his astonishing hitting, don't forget the work of Aravind, who has outshone Zaheer Khan.

Match odds

There is very little faith in the Royals at a massive [2.78]. It looks huge and we have to try to understand why. Bangalore are as short as [1.53].

It is almost certainly the Gayle factor. He has been largely responsible for a streak that has seen Bangalore win five consecutive matches. Yet the Royals are only one spot behind them in the table and need a win, otherwise their finals hopes look slim.

Certainly we think Royals can hang in there and they are a great trading option. The surface at Jaipur is a controversial one - Shane Warne claimed they were told which strip to use versus Chennai - and it can be a great leveller.

Top Bangalore batsman

Gayle has an incredible 328 runs in just five matches with two centuries. So it will be hardly surprising to see him go off at no better than [3.50] for top bat. It will shorten rapidly in-running, too.

Best bet: Back-to-lay Rajasthan @ [2.76]

Its crunch time in Chennai for the Daredevils, who need to beat the Super Kings to keep alive their slim hopes of reaching the IPL play-offs.

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