Spanish Football 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Valencia are going for a seventh win in eight against psychologically fragile Atletico Madrid.
"Diego Forlan is being booed by the fans and his strike partner, Sergio Aguero, has realised it is time to move on."
Atletico Madrid's own coach does not really believe in them any more. And neither does Tobias Gourlay.
Atletico Madrid v Valencia (Saturday 1700 GMT)
Quique Sanchez Flores admitted his side was mentally weak after losing 3-0 to Barcelona last weekend. He did not just mean they were mentally weak in the face of the champions. It is much deeper than that. Quique is not helped by the self-serving behaviour of Atleti's board of directors and is no longer sure that he knows how to solve the problem.
Diego Forlan is being booed by the fans and his strike partner, Sergio Aguero, has realised it is time to move on. This team should not be [2.16] to beat Valencia at the Vicente Calderon on Saturday afternoon.
Valencia have won six of their last seven Liga games and 2/3 away from home. Coach Unai Emery's incessant tinkering attracts a lot of criticism, but there is usually a good reason for it. [3.75] is a great price at which to back to win, but you might want to cover the draw by taking them at [2.75] in the Draw No Bet market.
And don't forget Los Che's late-goal habit. Strikes in the last 15 minutes have changed the results of six of their last seven matches.
Sporting Gijon v Barcelona (Saturday 1900 GMT)
Barcelona have won an unprecedented 16 Liga games in a row. More than likely they will win a 17th at El Molinon on Saturday evening.
How will they win?
- By getting ahead before half-time. That is what they have done in 9/10 away games already this season.
- By a margin of at least three goals. That is what they have in all of their most recent five away games.
- By keeping a clean sheet. That is what they have done in four of their most recent five away games.
When a team is all-conquering like Barca, the opposition's patterns are less important than usual. In which case, there is value in backing any of Barcelona/Barcelona ([1.6]), Barcelona -2.5 on the Asian Handicap ([2.3]) and Barcelona Win to Nil ([2.1]).
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (Sunday 1600 GMT)
Pep Guardiola has started something in Spanish football. Full backs who attack like wingers, forwards who defend like midfielders, defenders who step into midfield, midfielders who drop into defence. It is a new formula and a very successful one so far.
Martin Lasarte has been taking notes. His Real Sociedad team play an aggressive 4-2-3-1, attacking the opposition with and without the ball, working very hard. Opponents are often taken aback by this and six of the last seven visitors to Inoeta have been behind at the end of the first half.
This weekend, Osasuna are in town. They are the La Liga's worst away team, going W0-D2-L9 outside Pamplona this season. Tack on the end of last season and they have lost 17 of their last 19 matches on the road. They have been behind at half-time in seven of the most recent eight defeats.
[3.8] for Sociedad/Sociedad?
Big. Value.
Espanyol v Real Madrid (Sunday 2000 GMT)
A couple of goals for Emmanuel Adebayor. A couple of games without injury for Kaka. There are good reasons for Jose Mourinho to be cheerful this weekend. Whether there are good reasons for Real Madrid to be [1.49] to win at Espanyol on Sunday night is debatable.
Real have only won 6/11 away from home this season. Young, hungry Espanyol have won 8/10 at Cornella-El Prat. But it must be a worry for Espanyol's backers that their two defeats have come recently and against the teams either side of Real in the table.
Better to accompany this game with a glass of Rioja than any sort of bet.
Best Bet: Back Sociedad/Sociedad at [3.8] v Osasuna
Recommended Bet: Back Valencia Draw No Bet at [2.75] v Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid's own coach does not really believe in them any more. And neither does Tobias Gourlay....
Real Madrid tried very hard to keep pace with Barcelona in the first half of the season, but are now paying for their exertions, reports Tobias Gourlay in his weekly Spanish football column....
With disharmony between management and board, new players not up to the job and refereeing decisions going against them, Real Madrid may have to give up on the Spanish title and focus on the Champions League, says Jonathan Wilson....
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