Premier League 
/ Michael Cox / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Scott Parker and Emmanuel Adebayor have been impressive for Spurs
"I'm going to back the Togo striker to open the scoring, though - critics say he only plays at his best when he's motivated, but few other games will interest him as much as this one against his old club."
Tactics, team selection, systems and momentum will all play a huge part in the outcome of this match. Lets' make some money from guessing how all these factors will pan out, says Michael Cox.
Tottenham v Arsenal, Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match odds: Tottenham [2.2], Arsenal [3.65], The Draw [3.6].
The second major derby of the Premier League weekend sees Arsenal make the short trip to White Hart Lane. Arsene Wenger once boasted an enviable record against Spurs, but in the last couple of seasons, Harry Redknapp has got the better of him.
The interesting feature of this game - though not necessarily the deciding factor - will be which side has more possession. In recent years, this fixture has seen Arsenal dominating the ball, holding onto it on the edge of the box, but having trouble penetrating the Tottenham box. Spurs have then counter-attacked quickly and scored. On the basis of history, we'd expect something similar.
It might all change this season, however. Why? Well, there are three separate reasons. First, Tottenham have become an extremely good passing side. In the last two Premier League weekends, they've completed more passes than any other side, and they seem to be hoarding the ball more this season, allowing their strikers to become involved in build-up play.
Second, Arsenal's style has also changed slightly - in the other direction. Previously focused upon bringing wide players inside and trying to play through tight spaces in the middle, Wenger now seems to want to play a more vertical game. Theo Walcott and Gervinho offer pace and direct running, and Arsenal might want space to break into.
Third, rarely in the last 15 years have Spurs been in a better position than Arsenal coming into this game - but on the basis of the Premier League so far, they are the better side and odds of [2.2] reflect this - when was the last time Tottenham were so short in this fixture? Therefore, it will be Redknapp's side calling the shots.
How will the two sides try and hold onto the ball? An important factor here will be strikers dropping deep. Robin van Persie does it brilliantly for Arsenal, but it's notable how much his old foe Emmanuel Adebayor has been doing the same so far for Spurs. Jermain Defoe has also become a better all-rounder, though Redknapp may decide to go for just one striker. Either way, I expect defenders to be dragged out of the back and forced to turn quickly, so a yellow card for someone like Per Mertesacker is possible. He's worth backing to be shown a card at around [4.0].
The midfielders are key, however, and Spurs need a good performance in terms of both winning and retaining the ball. The midfield partnership of Scott Parker and Luka Modric has looked good so far, and Parker was particularly impressive against Liverpool, where he denied Charlie Adam time on the ball, and didn't let Liverpool settle in midfield.
For interesting individual battles, look to the flanks. Andre Santos can get caught high up the pitch and can leave too much space in behind, whilst Bacary Sagna hasn't looked as assured as in 2011/12, when he was voted into the PFA Team of the Year. I think Spurs will try and cross the ball a lot for Adebayor, so it's worth considering that they might win lots of corners.
I'm going to back the Togo striker to open the scoring, though - critics say he only plays at his best when he's motivated, but few other games will interest him as much as this one against his old club, and with Arsenal's defeat to Blackburn showing that they're still vulnerable when trying to defend set-pieces, I think [6.0] for Adebayor to open the scoring is good value.
Recommended bets:
Mertesacker to be shown a card at [4.0]
Adebayor to score first at [6.0]
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