The Big Match Tactical View: Juventus v Napoli

The midfield battle featuring Gokhan Inler, Valon Behrami, Claudio Marchisio and Arturo Vidal should be fiery
Back a second-off at 3.412/5

Juventus have a long unbeaten record to protect, while Napoli struggle away from home against the big boys - can Walter Mazzarri's side pull off a shock victory?

Juventus v Napoli, Saturday 5:00, Betfair Live Video.

Match Odds: Juventus 1.794/5, Napoli 5.04/1, The Draw 3.9n/a.

It's impossible to consider Napoli's chances of winning this match without recalling their dreadful record away top 5 clubs in the past couple of seasons - they've collected just two points and conceded 18 goals in those eight games. We also have to bear in mind that Juventus are unbeaten in 46 league games, and are yet to lose at their new stadium.

Yet Juve have recently lost to Napoli - in the Coppa Italia final back in May, when Walter Mazzarri recorded a 2-0 victory over Antonio Conte thanks to an Edinson Cavani penalty and a Marek Hamsik breakaway goal. The subsequent 4-2 Supercoppa debate was followed by Napoli complaints about controversial refereeing decisions - this now feels like a proper rivalry, and with both sides on 19 points from a possible 21 at the top of the table, this is a huge game.

Tactically, it should be fascinating. 3-5-2 is now Juventus' default shape, but Conte originally started using that formation exclusively against other sides who played three at the back - primarily Udinese and Napoli. "All teams who play 3-5-2 cause us problems," admits Mazzarri - so it's difficult to see Conte choosing any other system.

Conte is a big admirer of Christian Maggio, Napoli's right-wing-back, and his decision to change formation last year was partly to get a player tracking him up and down the line. Marcelo Estigarribia wasn't good enough defensively to stop him at the San Paolo, but Paolo De Ceglie did a good job in Turin and he could start ahead of Kwadwo Asamoah here. On the other side, Stephane Lichtsteiner is a better player than Juan Zuniga, and will force the Colombian back towards his own goal.

In the centre of midfield, there should be a frantic two-versus-two clash - Gokhan Inler and Valon Behrami against Claudio Marchisio and Arturo Vidal. All are mobile, combative and feisty - this will be a tremendous battle.

More crucial, however, is the contest between Juvents' deep-lying playmaker Andrea Pirlo and Napoli attacking midfielder Hamsik. The Slovakian successfully nullified Pirlo last season, although at the expense of his own attacking ability - he needs to stop Pirlo playing forward passes, but then storm forward on the break, turning Juve's probable three-versus-two advantage at the back into a more dangerous three-versus-three.

Mazzarri rarely makes surprise selection decisions - a minor change in defence might be on the cards, but that's about it - but Conte's selection upfront is unknown. So far this season he's favoured Sebastian Giovinco behind Mirko Vucinic, but reports from Italy suggest he'll favour a combination of Alessandro Matri and Naples-born Fabio Quagliarella. If I were Conte, I'd go for Matri to hold the ball up and occupy the Napoli centre-backs, then tell Giovinco to float around in the hole just behind, taking advantage of the fact neither Inler nor Behrami are natural holders, and will be drawn higher up into a midfield battle.

The game's star player is Cavani - likely to be fielded upfront with support from Goran Pandev to his right. Cavani has a decent record against Juventus and, will hope Maggio and Zuniga get forward and supply him with crosses.

There have been 24 goals in the last six games between these sides in all competitions, and it's unusual - but right in this case - to see Over 2.5 goals at 1.865/6 in a match between Serie A's top two. Still, I don't see a great deal of value in that market. Instead, I like the look of a sending-off at around 3.613/5, primarily because of the aforementioned midfield battle - but also because of the past refereeing controversies, which will make this a tempestuous encounter.

Recommended bet:
Back a second-off at 3.412/5

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Against All Odds: Napoli can exploit divided Chelsea

Daily Tipping / Paul Robinson / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Chelsea will struggle to contain Ezequiel Lavezzi

"Napoli are flying at the moment with six consecutive wins, culminating in a 6-3 hammering of Cagliari last time out... "

Napoli travel to Chelsea tonight with a 3-1 advantagein the second leg of their Champions League last 16 tie. The home side are odds-on to win the match but they are in disarray and Paul Robinson thinks they will struggle.

Steven Gerrard did the business for us yesterday with a hat-trick that got up the three goals required in the Merseyside Derby. It means that I have now given you 10 successful odds-on lays out of 12 and profits are soaring.

Chelsea are struggling at the moment and they may need to win this competition if they want to be in it again next year as they are down in fifth place in the Premier League. Roman Abramovich has sacked Andre Villas-Boas since the first leg of this tie and appointed Roberto Di Matteo as interim manager until the end of the season. Since he took over, Chelsea have won two matches, but they were against Championship side Birmingham and Stoke. The latter game finished 1-0 to the Blues but the opposition were down to 10 men for over an hour and it was hardly an impressive performance.

At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have been victorious just four times in the last eight and the only side that are on Napoli's level were Manchester United, who they blew a three goal lead against to draw 3-3. Captain John Terry has come out this week and denied that there is a split in the camp but it's pretty obvious that the likes of Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba rule the roost and that is having a negative effect on the performances of others.

Napoli are flying at the moment with six consecutive wins, culminating in a 6-3 hammering of Cagliari last time out that could have been a cricket score. Walter Mazzarri has his side in form at the right time of the season as they are up to fourth in Serie A in their quest to re-qualify for the Champions League. In Ezequiel Lavezzi and Edinson Cavani, Napoli have a forward line that is on a par with some of the best in Europe and they will be absolutely lethal on the break tonight as Chelsea pour on the pressure to wipe out the two goal deficit. The last time Azzurri were in England, they held Manchester City to a draw and I have a feeling that they will do no worse than that in this one. They have too many goals in them to get beaten by Chelsea.

Chelsea have to go for it but they have not shown that they have enough firepower to make me think that they will score enough against Napoli. I can't see how they're going to keep a clean sheet so that means they will need at least two to win the match and even that is doubtful. They will be chasing the game and could well be hit by the deadly Napoli attack on the break and the tie and the match could well be put to bed. Chelsea are trading at [1.81] which is too short and I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Chelsea against Napoli @ [1.81]

Jonno Turner is backing two capital clubs to triumph this evening, one in Germany and another in England......

It's the Merseyside derby tonight in what promises to be an enthralling encounter. Under 2.5 goals is odds-on and the statistics do point to it being a low scoring affair, but in-form Paul Robinson thinks the formbook will be turned...

Jonno Turner is backing Reading to charge into the Championship's top two with a win at Doncaster, and foresees a return to form for League Two promotion hopefuls Crawley......

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Opta Stats: Chelsea v Napoli

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ezequiel Lavezzi is enjoying one of the most prolific spells of his career

Napoli have fired in all of their Champions League games, and if they maintain that run at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea may face too big a deficit to overhaul...

The Blues have won just three of their seven Champions League matches this season despite having taken the lead in all seven games.

Chelsea have won all three home games though, scoring 10 goals without reply.

However, the Londoners have failed to score in each of their last three Champions League home games in the knockout stages.

For the first time since 1966 (four straight wins in the Fairs Cup) Napoli have won three consecutive games in European competition.

Both sides have scored in each of their seven Champions League games this season.

Napoli have the best conversion rate in this season's Champions League, scoring with 22% of their shots.

Six of the seven goals Napoli have shipped this term in the Champions League have been conceded in the first half.

The Blues have drawn Italian opposition in two of the last three seasons at this stage, beating Juventus in 2008-09 and losing to Inter in 2009-10.

Didier Drogba has scored four goals in his last four Champions League appearances, but failed to score in the first leg.

Edinson Cavani (five goals, two assists) has had a hand in seven of Napoli's 13 Champions League goals this season, including all three goals in the first leg.

The Opta stats don't paint a pretty picture of Liverpool's league form in 2012 ahead of a Merseyside derby in which they could be leapfrogged......

After scrutinising the Opta stats, Michael Lintorn is optimistic about Bolton and Blackburn's chances, foresees a slow start at Carrow Road and anticipates a red card at the Emirates......

The Opta stats point to a Tottenham triumph and an early opener at Goodison Park on Saturday teatime, argues Michael Lintorn......

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Coppa Italia Betting: Inter's form to continue away to Napoli

Italian Football / Michael Lintorn / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Diego Milito's sudden return to form has been pivotal to Inter's revival

"Inter were dire for much of their game on Sunday against Lazio, yet as is often the case when momentum is on your side, they found a way to get the win, their eighth in a row in all competitions."

Coppa Italia quarter-final week features three north-versus-south showdowns between top-seven sides, spread over three days. Michael Lintorn ponders each of them...

Juventus v Roma, Tuesday 19:45 BST, ESPN, Match odds: Juventus [2.0], Roma [4.4], The Draw [3.55]

Both of these clubs were busy last summer, hiring a new coach and completely overhauling their squads, but while things clicked right away for Juventus, Roma's ambitious work only started producing results after they held the leaders last month.

They've won every match since - though many of their opponents in that run were sides struggling for form - and have reached the semi-finals of this competition in six of the last seven years, doing so last year courtesy of a victory in Turin.

However, with Juventus yet to taste defeat all season, engineering a repeat is far more difficult than those stats suggest. Indeed, with the Old Lady winning six from ten at their new home and Roma erratic on their travels, the hosts are the more appetising of the pair at [2.0].

Under 2.5 goals is even more appealing at [1.87], having been a feature of their last four collisions and four of Juventus' five meetings with top-six rivals this term.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [1.87]

Napoli v Inter, Wednesday 19:45 BST, ESPN, Match odds: Napoli [2.38], Inter [3.45], The Draw [3.35]

As Claudio Ranieri was willing to concede, Inter were dire for much of their game on Sunday against a very committed Lazio, yet as is often the case when momentum is on your side, they found a way to get the win, their eighth in a row in all competitions.

By contrast, things haven't been going to plan for Napoli recently, despite this being the period of the campaign in which they were expected to impress with the pressure of juggling domestic and European ambitions briefly lifted.

The return of Ezequiel Lavezzi from injury will improve matters, but with Inter the best team in Italy right now and Napoli triumphing in just five of their last 11 at the San Paolo, odds of above-evens on the visitors - holders and finalists in six of the last seven seasons - is too big to snub.

Best Bet: Inter to qualify @ [2.14]

AC Milan v Lazio, Thursday 19:45 BST, ESPN, Match odds: AC Milan [1.87], Lazio [5.0], The Draw [3.6]

Lazio have, in this not quite impartial observer's view, been better this term than in narrowly missing out on a Champions League place in 2010-11. But Sunday's loss to Inter, the latest in a long list of big games in which they have played well and not won, will likely sink their top-three bid, increasing the importance of the cup.

The first example of that trend came on the opening day, when they led the champions 2-0 in Milan, Djibril Cisse grabbing his first and only goal in Italian football, yet were forced to settle for a point.

That was Lazio's fourth straight draw with the Rossoneri, three of those encounters taking place at San Siro. So though the hosts appear generously priced, the standout option is to back both teams to score, a feature of AC Milan's last four Coppa Italia ties, just one of which they've won in 90 minutes.

Best Bet: Both teams to score @ [1.88]

With sharp attacks and dodgy defences on display, Bolgna and Parma should produce more than three goals, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, a new signing can freshen up Juventus as they aim for three points on the road......

The match itself didn't quite live up to the hype but one-time [70.0] outsiders Inter's 1-0 Milan derby win has made this year's scudetto battle even more open......

With both sides in great form, the Derby della Madonnina, or Milan Derby, should be a tremendous match. Michael Cox looks at the tactical possibilities....

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Napoli v Juventus: Hosts to raise their game against leaders

Italian Football / Michael Lintorn / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Edinson Cavani scored a hat-trick in his last home game against Juventus

"Napoli have shown throughout the campaign that they are a team for the big occasions and should avoid the disastrous scenario of allowing the unbeaten Bianconeri to pull 12 points clear of them."

Despite their dismal recent domestic form, Michael Lintorn thinks that Napoli are a massive threat to Juventus' unbeaten run...

Napoli v Juventus, Tuesday 19:45 BST, Betfair Live Video, Match odds: Napoli [2.6], Juventus [3.05], The Draw [3.35]

Walter Mazzarri maintains that it is the media rather than him expecting a scudetto challenge from Napoli. However honest that statement is, it will be very difficult for them to mount one if they lose Tuesday's game in hand with leaders Juventus.

The joy of a Champions League win over Manchester City was swiftly replaced by the increasingly familiar feeling of domestic disappointment at Atalanta, where they made four changes to the side and had to salvage a point in injury time.

Yet the Partenopei have shown throughout the campaign that they are a team for the big occasions and should avoid the disastrous scenario of allowing the unbeaten Bianconeri to pull 12 points clear of them, instead perhaps closing the gap to six.

The hosts have won just four of their first 11 Serie A fixtures, but three of those came against the clubs that joined them in the top four last season, with their 2-0 victory over Udinese last month ending their undefeated start.

And as they welcome bottom-of-the-table Lecce to the San Paolo on Saturday, Napoli will surely field their strongest possible XI against Juventus, meaning recalls for tireless right wing back Christian Maggio and unsung hero of the attack Ezequiel Lavezzi.

Juventus share their opponents' appetite for the glamorous encounters and have also seen off both Milan giants, claiming another huge result at the weekend away to Lazio. They weren't at their best in a 1-0 triumph though, and lost 3-0 in Naples in 2010-11.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Alessandro Matri has been a revelation since joining the Old Lady in January, but his team-mates spurned several opportunities in Rome and such wastefulness will prove costly against Napoli, who have kept three clean sheets in four at home.

Four of Antonio Conte's men's first five away matches have featured two goals or fewer, with them netting one or fewer in four instances, so under 2.5 goals has to be fancied at [1.76].

Best Bet: Napoli to win @ [2.6]
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [1.76]

Even with Antonio Cassano likely to miss much of the remainder of the season, AC Milan should not be considering a move for Carlos Tevez, argues Michael Lintorn......

With Napoli set to face Manchester City in midweek in a huge Champions League fixture, Dave Farrar believes Lazio, and their excellent away form, can take full advantage....

It's not even December yet but the January transfer rumours are already starting to fly, with Didier Drogba thought to be on his way to Italy...

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Serie A Results: Napoli stopped in their tracks

Italian Football / Ben Lyttleton / 18 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gokhan Inler opened the scoring for Udinese against Napoli and there are rumours he may be heading south to play for Sunday night's opponents

"The ramifications of the result were huge at the top of the table. Milan,
six points clear with five games left, surely cannot slip up now, while
Napoli will bemoan a record against the four teams around them which reads
six defeats in seven games."

After this weekend's action we're closer to knowing who will be winning the major European leagues and that includes Serie A, after Napoli lost at home to Udinese. It's now AC Milan's to lose, says Ben Lyttleton.

This was the weekend that the chasing pack faltered: in England, Arsenalv dropped points to Liverpool; in Spain, Real Madrid did the same, albeit to champions-elect Barcelona; it was the same story in Germany, where second-placed Bayer Leverkusen were thrashed 5-1 by Bayern Munich, which as good as confirms Borussia Dortmund as champions.

When Inter lost 2-0 to Parma on Saturday night, the Scudetto turned into a two-horse race, the advantage with leaders AC Milan after their 3-0 win over Sampdoria. Napoli remained their biggest threat, and faced out-of-form Udinese needing a win to reduce the gap to three points.

Francesco Guidolin has performed miracles at the Fruili club, but Udinese went into the game having just lost to Lecce and Roma and were without top scorer Antonio di Natale and playmaker Alexis Sanchez, who between them had scored 38 of their 57 league goals for the season. They also lost Mauricio Isla, their outstanding wide-player, though injury in the first half ­ but still they recovered to beat the title-chasers 2-1, goals from Gokhan Inler and centre-forward German Denis (formerly of Napoli) rendering Giuseppe Mascara's late consolation in vain. Before Mascara struck, Edinson Cavani had his late penalty stopped by Samir Handanovic, the Slovenian's fifth stop of the season.

The ramifications of the result were huge at the top of the table. Milan, six points clear with five games left, surely cannot slip up now, while Napoli will bemoan a record against the four teams around them which reads six defeats in seven games.

Udinese are now back in the hunt for a Champions League place, one point behind fourth-placed Lazio. Di Natale has helped Udinese reach the Champions League before (he scored a hat-trick against Werder Bremen which he rates as the highlight of his career) and to do so again would reward his side for a thrilling season.

Udinese have been Italy's grand entertainers, particularly since the turn of the year where their scores have included a 4-2 win over Genoa, a 3-1 win over Inter, a 4-4 draw with Milan and a 7-0 win at Palermo. As betting.betfair.com's Italian specialist Dave Farrar advises, Udinese are always worth backing in the Over-Goals market away from home, where their counter-attacking game is better suited.

The concern that would follow any European qualification would be how many players they can hold on to for next season. Inler looks set for Napoli (reportedly, that's why he didn't celebrate his goal) while Sanchez is a target for Europe's big boys: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Barcelona have all been linked. Isla is another hot property, as are Handanovic and defender Mehdi Benatia. Though Sanchez has claimed otherwise, Udinese's summer recruitment plans will depend on where they finish: they are [1.71] to finish fourth, with Lazio [1.64].

The other market affected by the game was the one for Top Scorer: Di Natale, on 26 goals, is currently [1.73] favourite with Cavani, one goal behind, on [2.28]. The Uruguayan had scored six in his last three before the botched spot-kick, while Di Natale has eight in his last six.

It's not all over in the rest of Europe, though: in France, though Lyon lost to Paris Saint-Germain to end their hopes, leaders Lille could only draw with Bordeaux, so Marseille closed the gap to one point with a 2-1 win over Montpellier. Marseille are [2.2] with Lille, who are beginning to wobble, [1.8].

The closest battle remains is in Holland, where one point separates the top three teams. That's after leaders (and reigning champions) Twente could only draw with De Graafschap, while PSV Eindhoven moved top after beating Heracles 2-0. The biggest surprise is that Ajax are still in the hunt: they came from behind to beat NEC 2-1 and are one point behind the joint-leaders, but having won five of their last six, have the momentum. With three games left to play, PSV are [1.71] to clinch the Eredivisie, with Twente [3.65] and Ajax [3.05].

Inter are all but out of this title race in the eyes of Dave Farrar and it's left to AC Milan and Napoli to fight to the bitter death. They should both win pretty comfortably this weekend......

Two wounded sides face off at the Friuli but will we see the flurry of goals that some expect? Meanwhile, Dave Farrar believes Cesena may be worth a small investment to upset chaotic Palermo......

Dave Farrar looks ahead to the Milan derby where Inter look the bet and Udinese's away trip to Lecce. And you all know what that means....

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Europa League Betting: Villarreal v Napoli

Europa League / Richard Aikman / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Edinson Cavani will try to make sure that if he does score in the second leg, it actually stands this time

"Away from home in Europe, though, Napoli ([4.7]) tend to leave themselves more exposed than Cicciolina. Walter Mazzari’s men have not won in three European away games since beating Elfsborg 2-0 in the play-offs and have conceded three goals in their last three games on their travels..."

A goalless draw in the first leg means this tie is perfectly poised but a repeat of the goal drought is very unlikely with Villarreal at home and Napoli often more adventurous when they're away from the San Paolo. Over 2.5 goals it is, says Richard Aikman.

Had Edinson Cavani's goal not been disallowed for offside in Naples, the Partenopei would be going to Spain with a 1-0 lead. As it is, the match is delicately-poised and hard to call, although we can expect goals to flow in an open game at El Madrigal.

The chief reason for the goalless stalemate in Italy, was Villarreal's defensive set up. Normally so expansive on the wings, Joan Capdevila and Mario Gaspar sat back so as not to get exposed from the flanks, from where Cavani is so often serviced by Christian Maggio and Andrea Dossena.

But the experienced Spaniards, who are [1.85] to win, will be more forthright in front of their own supporters if Capdevila is to be believed. "You'll see a much more attacking Villarreal and I think it'll be a very open game, with lots of scoring chances," he said. Dossena is thinking along the same lines, saying: "Villarreal will have to leave themselves a little more exposed compared to in Naples."

Away from home in Europe, though, Napoli ([4.7]) tend to leave themselves more exposed than Cicciolina. Walter Mazzari's men have not won in three European away games since beating Elfsborg 2-0 in the play-offs and have conceded three goals in their last three games on their travels - albeit two of those matches ended in 3-3 draws. (Another 3-3 draw is priced at [85.0]). The Vesuviani also have Salvatore Aronica suspended, following his added-time dismissal for a foul on Nilmar, although both Paolo Cannavaro and new signing Victor Ruiz can deputise.

Villarreal's confidence will be based on having won all four of their European home games this season, scoring 11 goals and conceding just once at El Madrigal. Those games though were against Dinamo Zagreb, FC Bruges, PAOK and Dnepr Mogilev; not the side sitting second in Serie A, who might just do enough to get a draw in a high-scoring match.

Recommended bet: Draw @ [3.9]; Over 2.5 goals @ [2.08]; Correct score 3-3 @ [85].

A goalless draw in the first leg means this tie is perfectly poised but a repeat of the goal drought is very unlikely with Villarreal at home and Napoli often more adventurous when they're away from the San Paolo. Over...

The first leg was turned on its head in a couple of minutes and now it's Lille who have it all to do. But with the French outfit looking to win their domestic league, this one should only go one...

Porto are very much in the driving seat after winning the first leg in Spain and Sevilla will have no option but to go for it. All of which means goals should be on the cards again......

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Europa League Betting: Napoli v Villarreal

Europa League / Richard Aikman / 16 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Napoli's Edinson Cavani is in seriously hot form

"Edison Cavani is grabbing the headlines, but Napoli’s defence has also been immense and, although captain Paolo Cannavaro will be suspended for Villarreal‘s visit, a low-scoring affair is still likely."

The Italians are flying and should just edge a defensive encounter, says Richard Aikman

Having emerged as surprise Scudetto contenders, Napoli ([2.18] to win) are oozing confidence and can be expected to edge out Villarreal ([3.75]) in a low-scoring contest at the Stadio San Paolo.

It has been an extraordinary season for Napoli, who underlined their Scudetto credentials with an impressive 2-0 win at Roma on Saturday night. Edinson Cavani, their €17m summer signing from Palermo, hit his 19th and 20th league goals of the season to keep the Partenopei within three points of AC Milan and he could well be on target again on Thursday.

It was a last-gasp goal by the Uruguayan, who alongside Villarreal's Giuseppe Rossi is second in the Europa League scorers' standings, that ensured Napoli reached the knockout stage at the expense of Steaua Bucharest. But it should be noted that the striker's winner not only spared Napoli an early exit from the competition, but also a third consecutive goalless group draw.

Cavani is grabbing the headlines, but Napoli's defence has also been immense and, although captain Paolo Cannavaro will be suspended for Villarreal's visit, a low-scoring affair is still likely given that the Vesuviani defend so well as a team. They have won seven of their last eight home league matches and kept as many clean sheets in that run, only once in the last six matches producing a high-scoring match (three goals or more).

Villarreal made lighter work of their qualifying group but did lose on their travels to Dinamo Zagreb (2-0) and PAOK (1-0). More recently, the Yellow Submarine has also been sunk in its last two Liga sorties, succumbing 1-0 at home to Levante and at Deportivo on Sunday. Rossi and Marcos Senna were both substitutes for Sunday's match but even if they play a role in Naples, expect the hosts to edge it.

Recommended Bets:
Under 2.5 goals [1.86]
Napoli to win 1-0 @ [8.2]

The away side are tremendous value and should be backed to heap more misery on a struggling Seville outfit, says Richard Aikman...

This is a battle of high-scoring league leaders but the French side should ensure bragging rights remain avec les Francais, says Richard Aikman...

The Italians are flying and should just edge a defensive encounter, says Richard Aikman...

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Cavani treble leaves Napoli eyeing Scudetto

Italian Football / Ben Lyttleton / 31 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Edinson Cavani struck again against Sampdoria

"Napoli were the weekend's most impressive victors: they smashed Sampdoria 4-0, with Edinson Cavani scoring his second hat-trick this month."

The Milan clubs battle to eventful wins but the big news of the weekend may turn out to be Napoli's Cavani-inspired victory over Sampdoria.

Napoli first reached third place in Serie A this season after Week 13. Back then, Lazio were just slipping down from their early position of dominance, AC Milan moving top, and Inter were way back in sixth. This quartet remain the top four sides in Italy, and they all won this weekend, but the manner in which they did so could provide some pointers to what is shaping up to be an exciting Scudetto race.

Milan did what they needed to do, beating Cagliari 2-0 to maintain their four-point lead. But it was no easy task: Mark van Bommel was sent off on his debut and Milan, with six midfielders missing, played out the match with Robinho, a striker and Thiago Silva, a centre-half, in the midfield. Milan are [1.79] to end the season in top spot.

Inter's win over Palermo was even more complicated, as the reigning European champions, coming into the game after their first league defeat under Leonardo, to Udinese, were 2-0 down at half-time. January signing Giampaolo Pazzini came on for his debut at half-time and he turned the game, scoring twice and earning the penalty for Samuel Eto'o's winning spot-kick. Inter are nine points back and [4.5] to hold onto their crown.

But it was Napoli, [9.0] for the title, who were the most impressive
victors: they smashed Pazzini's former club Sampdoria 4-0, with Edinson Cavani following up his hat-trick against Juventus earlier this month with another treble. It was his fourth hat-trick of the season and he is reaping the rewards of coach Walter Mazzarri's decision to play him as centre-forward, and not the second striker position he held at Palermo.

He is now top of the scoring charts on 17 goals, two ahead of Antonio Di Natale, and one of only two strikers in the top seven who has not scored a penalty for his team (the other is Marco di Vaio). He is [2.5] to finish as top scorer with Di Natale [2.66] and Eto'o [5.4] on 13 goals.

Napoli's targets have now changed, unsurprisingly. At the start of the season reaching the Europa League was the challenge, but now they are eyeing a Champions League place and even more. "We know we can compete for a Champions League spot and also something even bigger, we can challenge for the Scudetto," Cavani told Calcio Italia magazine in an interview published this week. "It doesn't mean that if we don't win it, we will be failures, but we are in the hunt and we have to try. It can't hurt to dream, especially if you keep working hard."

Napoli are also in the running for this season's Europa League: they face Villarreal in the next round, with the winners playing Metalist Kharkiv or Bayer Leverkusen. It's a tough draw for the Neapolitans, who are [2.0] to sink the Yellow Submarine and [34.0] to win the trophy.

Owner Aurelio de Laurentiis has had no time to congratulate himself for the brilliant Cavani deal: he paid €5m for this season's loan and will pay another €12m in the summer to make the move permanent: instead he is looking for more striking talent, and today looks likely to sign striker Tim Matavz from Dutch club Groningen.

Matavz, who has scored 12 goals this season, will be the latest Slovenian to play in Serie A, following the success of Palermo's Josip Ilicic and Armin Bacinovic, not to mention Udinese's Samir Handanovic. He is not the only Slovene moving to Italy this month: Palermo have brought in defender Sinisa Andzelkovic from Maribor and midfielder Jasmin Kurtic from Gorica, while Genoa signed 18-year old midfielder Enej Jelenic from Koper.

For now, though, all the talk in Naples is of Cavani. Napoli have not won the title since 1990, when Diego Maradona's 16 goals inspired them to glory: 21 years on, another South American is leading the charge for them.

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