Swansea's home record too good for Newcastle

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Danny Graham and Swansea can cause Newcastle plenty of problems this Friday

"The standout results for Swansea have been at their Liberty stronghold, where they have lost just three of their 15 matches (one of which was against leaders Manchester United). Manchester City and Arsenal both lost there, while Chelsea and Tottenham escaped with draws."

The stats suggest another strong performance from the home side when Swans host Magpies. Elsewhere, an ever-improving Sunderland should give also give Tottenham plenty of problems, says Andrew Atherley.

Swansea and Newcastle, two of the surprise high achievers of the season, go head to head in the live TV match on Good Friday and there are strong stats on both sides that point to the home team.

The standout results for Swansea have been at their Liberty stronghold, where they have lost just three of their 15 matches (one of which was against leaders Manchester United). Manchester City and Arsenal both lost there, while Chelsea and Tottenham escaped with draws.

Ball possession and a mean defence are the cornerstones of Swansea's impressive record - only the two Manchester clubs have kept more home clean sheets and the Swans have the joint-second-lowest goals-against at home, behind United - and their style of play continues to win admirers.

The only poor result at home - and even that description is debatable - was the 3-2 defeat by Norwich in February and another minor quibble is that the draw rate is high (six out of 15, or 40 per cent).

But the possibility of a draw can be covered to some extent on the Asian handicap in Friday's game, where Newcastle are priced on their solid overall form but may be vulnerable judged by their away record against the strongest home teams.

This is the area where Alan Pardew's team have been weakest - they have played seven of the top 10 home teams and their record is one win, one draw and five defeats. Even the win is open to question, as it came early in the season against Sunderland before Martin O'Neill engineered such improvement at the Stadium of Light.

That record gives Swansea, who rank ninth on home form, a decent win chance at [2.48] but they look most solid off -0&-0.5 on the Asian handicap at [2.12]

This season's showdowns between the top five have been enjoyable to watch - as well as hugely profitable for goals backers - and Arsenal v Manchester City on Sunday could follow the same pattern.

Fourteen of the 17 matches in that category have had over 2.5 goals, including both of Arsenal's at home and all three of City's on the road. Both teams rank in the top six overall for matches with over 2.5 goals, which appeals at [1.84].

City have won five out of six (with one defeat) against the rest of the top five, which indicates a good win chance at [3.0] but nearly all their good results on the road were in the first three months of the season.

Since the fireworks display of their 3-2 win at QPR on November 5, City have won only two of their nine away games in the Premier League. In the same period they won 1-0 at Arsenal in the Carling Cup and it's possible to make a case for them on the overall stats, but the win is a risk even at seemingly attractive odds.

A mini-system that's working is a plus, which means that once again the Premier League's recent improvers are worth highlighting.

The improvers are the teams who have averaged more points in the second half of the season than up to halfway, with Manchester United clearly leading that group.

In the past two weeks, three of the improvers have played at home to regressive teams (those whose points average has declined since the halfway point) and all three have won.

The only team that falls into that category this weekend is Sunderland, who host Tottenham on Saturday. The visitors appear to be on the up again, so perhaps the safety net of the Asian handicap is worth having. Sunderland, who have lost only one of their eight home league games under Martin O'Neill, are [3.3] for the win and [1.96] off +0&+0.5 on the Asian handicap.

Recommendations

Swansea off -0&-0.5 on the Asian handicap v Newcastle at [2.12]
Over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Manchester City at [1.84]
Sunderland off +0&+0.5 on the Asian handicap v Tottenham at [1.96]

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Indian Wells Tips: Nadal to extend winning record against Fed

Events / Sean Calvert / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The outdoor courts favour Nad

"I made Rafa my outright selection for this event on the basis that conditions here suit his game and despite Federer’s more impressive performance in the previous round, I see no reason to switch allegiances in this tournament now."

It's men's semi-final day at the BNP Paribas Open with the headline act being another instalment of Nadal v Federer and Sean Calvert is backing the Spaniard to extend his good record against the Swiss master

It was a tale of two Argentines on Friday at the BNP Paribas Open.

My recommended bet resulted in a disappointing loss for Juan Martin Del Potro, but those who were on my advice of backing David Nalbandian to take the opening set against Rafa Nadal were rewarded with a [4.6] winner.

Saturday is men's semi-final day at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden and first up at around 6pm UK time is Novak Djokovic v John Isner with the world number one priced up at around [1.13] to advance to the final.

This will be the third meeting between the pair, with Djokovic holding a 2-0 lead so far in their series, but they haven't played each other since 2010.

Djokovic looks like he's just coming into form at the right time in this event after a sluggish start, while Isner should have no shortage of confidence after making his second successive Masters 1000 semi.

He also comes into this match with additional self belief after recording his first win over a top four player when he defeated Roger Federer in the Davis Cup recently, so he'll have the right mindset when he steps on court tonight.

I can't see it being quite enough against Djokovic, but the big man should be able to take the match over the 20.5 total games mark if he serves well, which he'll have to against arguably the best returner in men's tennis at the moment.

Nole should have too much variety and a little extra class in this one, but my bet would be the overs at around [1.8].

The second semi final will be part 28 of the Federer v Nadal series, with Rafa holding an 18-9 advantage in competitive matches against the Swiss maestro.

This will be their first ever meeting at Indian Wells and Rafa is priced up at around [1.75] for the win, which is pretty reasonable considering that he's won four of their last five competitive matches and hasn't lost to Federer on an outdoor hard court since Miami in 2005.

Indeed, Rafa leads their series on outdoor hard courts by 5-1 in competitive matches and 7-1 overall, so on the face of it the Spaniard looks a pretty good bet at the current price.

An interesting wager in this match could be the 'second set winner' market, as Rafa has won the second set in eight of their last nine matches in all competitions. If you can get around [1.8] that could be worth an investment.

I made Rafa my outright selection for this event on the basis that conditions here suit his game and despite Federer's more impressive performance in the previous round, I see no reason to switch allegiances in this tournament now.

Del Potro was hugely disappointing yesterday against Fed and admitted to mentally checking out after a bad call cost him the chance to break in the first game of the match, which is a shocking admission from a top-10 player.

Nadal on the other hand had to dig deep against Nalbandian and was a couple of points away from losing, which should have sharpened him up and I expect his usual tactic of wearing Federer's backhand down until it breaks will be victorious again tonight eventually.

Recommended Bet
Back Nadal to beat Federer at [1.75]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

Sean Calvert continues a week of tipping with a look at this intriguing quarter-final between Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer......

Big-serving John Isner and Sean's nemesis Gilles Simon go head-to-head tonight and though Isner looks the more likely winner, the better bet is that it will be a pretty long match os it's time to turn to the total games...

Sean Calvert found some winners yesterday and on a day where the favourites should mostly prevail, the best bet is the in-form Ryan Harrison. He's up against a player in Gilles Simon with a suspect record here at Indian Wells...

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Chelsea v Manchester United sees record use of Betfair's Cash Out!

/ Dan Thomas / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Cash Out allowed Betfair customers to lock in profit before Javier Hernandez equalised yesterday

"Cash Out helps to expose the benefits of Exchange betting to our new users. Many Exchange customers may never trade within the Exchange purely backing a selection and waiting on a result."

A record number of Betfair users used the 'Cash Out' functionality to lock in profit during yesterday's 3-3 draw between Chelsea and Manchester United...

Cash Out uses a combination of back and lay bets to allow the customer to use their current exposure to lock in a profit, simply by pressing one button. It has been used more than 2m times since launch.

Of the 27,000 people who were betting on the Match Odds market during the thrilling draw at Stamford Bridge, 1,559 used the Cash Out button - beating the record set during El Clasico on January 18.

Some 179 customers backed Chelsea before the first goal and then went on to Cash Out before Man United equalised.

If they had let their bets ride they'd have lost £719 (an average of £4 each). But by using Cash Out to lock in a profit, they won £3,003 (an average of £16 each).

Cash Out was also popular with users protecting their profits against a late Man United goal - more than 1,000 customers cashed out in the last 15 minutes of the match.

Mike Woodbridge, Sports Product Specialist at Betfair, said: "Cash Out helps to expose the benefits of Exchange betting to our new users. Many customers may never trade, purely backing a selection and waiting on a result.

"For experienced Exchange users Cash Out provides a faster process by eliminating the need to calculate, and place, the combination of bets needed to green up or cut your losses.The feature will place the required bets on your behalf. Many of our customers that do not intend to Cash Out simply use the feature to assess how well their bets are doing."

In December, Betfair rolled out Cash Out functionality to mobile.

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Greyhound Derby Tips: Taylors can give Lister record sixth win

Sky Previews / Darrell Williams / 10 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will the famous red jacket curse finally be lifted?

"The advice is to keep it simple and back Taylors Sky at [3.0] to put Charlie Lister into the record books as the most successful trainer in Derby history. Perfectly positioned to dominate from traps rise he can finally put to an end the winless record of the red jacket in Wimbledon Derby finals"

Taylors Sky can create history by winning the Greyhound Derby final at Wimbledon on Saturday night - live on Sky Sports - and provide legendary trainer Charlie Lister with a record breaking sixth Derby success says Darrell Williams.

Greyhound racing's biggest race of the year throws up any number of betting angles, but the advice is to keep it simple and back Taylors Sky at [3.0] to put Charlie Lister into the record books as the most successful trainer in Derby history.

After breaking the track-record in the quarter-final, Taylors Sky, who will be having only his tenth career start in the final, proceeded to equal that time in last week's semi. Having once again secured the trap one draw, he looks perfectly positioned to dominate from traps rise and finally put to an end the winless record of the red jacket in Wimbledon Derby finals.

While the selection is well drawn, the same cannot be said of his rivals with Bright Redcliffe sure to turn right from trap two at traps rise - which could cause chaos further out - especially if he breaks as sharply as he did in the semi-finals.

The strength of Westmead Guru is well noted, and while he ran his best race so far when drawn trap three in the quarters, Kelly Findlay's runner will also need to avoid Razldazl George heading inwards from trap four.

Indeed it might help both runners if 'George' misses his break as he did in the semis, and in a race dominated by front-runners the Irish runner is worth a small saver at [4.5] as one of only two 'finishers' in the line-up.

The other, Cloheena Cash, who on the formbook is closely matched with Dolores Ruth's charge, could still conceived be over-priced, but he may struggle to avoid wide-moving Barefoot Bullet, whose chance of Derby success would have been far greater had he drawn stripes.

On an exciting under-card, Lister's Romeo Spartan is hard to oppose in the Derby Plate (21:05) with mid-moving King Jaffa likely to afford him plenty of racing room. Lister rates the selection highly and he is one to note for a major four-bend competition later in the season. Kennelmate Yahoo Jamie can chase him home as he did in the heats.

Sizzlers Spirit appears poorly drawn in trap five in the Champion Hurdle final (20:45) but such is the determination of Norah McEllistrim's runner, who has won eight of his last nine starts, that he is worth staying with at what could be a generous price. Junior Mac rates the obvious danger after giving the clock a shaking in the heats, but he will need to shake off fast-starting Billis Renegade.

Fatboyz Slim looks generously priced in the Dorando (21:25) after clocking the fastest time of the year over six bends the other week, given his best form came in marathons in Ireland last year. He looks back to his best, but I will also save on reigning champion Taylors Riviera at a massive price. Her recent form is moderate, but the return to Wimbledon's 894m could be just what she needs.

I'm taking a chance on Useful Asset in the six-bend race at 20:05 who blatantly looks too big in the markets given his excellent draw outside rails favouring Anfi Gem. While there are stronger dogs in the field, Brian Clemenson's runner has shown some excellent form over the CD this year and is worth a punt at [7.0] or bigger.

Scottish Derby champions Taylors Cruise (20:25) and Nambisco (21:45) can justify favouritism in their respective contests.

Recommended Bets (in order of preference)
Taylors Sky 22:12
Romeo Spartan 21:05
Sizzlers Spirit 20:45
Useful Asset 20:05
Fatboyz Slim 21:25
Taylors Cruise 20:25
Nambisco 21:45

The Sky cameras are again at Wimbledon where the remaining 12 will be whittled down to six Derby finalists - find out who The Lord will be opposing on tonight's card...

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UK & Ireland Poker Tour A Record Breaker

The UKIPT Nottingham poker game has been declared a record breaker. The UKIPT is sponsored by online poker site PokerStars. Nottingham is the second stop of this year’s PokerStars UK & Ireland Poker Tour. The record broke is for the largest number of players in a live tournament in the UK, which is significant considering that the World Series of Poker Europe has been held in London for the past two years. The poker room sponsored event saw a total of 1,058 create a £529,000 prize pool.

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