1st ODI Betting: Batsmen could suffer Cardiff blues

"In eight completed first-innings, the average score has been 231"

Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around 2.809/5

Ed Hawkins, the SJA Betting Writer of the Year, previews the first match between England and South Africa at Cardiff on Friday

England
The home side are without Stuart Broad after taking the decision to rest the Twenty20 captain ahead of next month's World Cup. It is a slightly odd decision as there is plenty of time before the Sri Lanka stint and it deprives them of a fine bowler.

Instead Chris Woakes could be given a run. He has caught the eye for Warwickshire this season and is deserving of an opportunity to prove himself.

Ravi Bopara, returned to the fold after a hiatus for personal reasons, is in no form whatsoever and failed in a guest appearance for Gloucestershire against the South Africans on Wednesday. It would be a surprise if he played.

South Africa
South Africa have long been the masters of the bits and pieces one-day player. And there are plenty in this squad which form a formidable-looking jigsaw. Albie Morkel, who could biff one over the border, is a tantalising, yet often disappointing, all-rounder, while Robin Peterson, Ryan McLaren and Wayne Parnell are all fine operators in this format.

Venue and conditions
Sophia Gardens in Cardiff is something of a friend of gamblers. It is so darn reliable. Usually we can expect some wet weather and a difficult batting pitch. Throw in a toss bias and we're like pigs in mud.

If you subscribe to the view that gamblers should stick to what they know, then turn off the brain. Sophia Gardens is tricky for batsmen and we are looking to play the innings runs market. In eight completed first-innings, the average score has been 231. The highest total was by India against England last year but previous to that only Pakistan (in 2001) have managed 250 or more.

Runs have been short supply in the three CB40 matches there, too - 173, 151 and 227 have been the first-dig totals.

Better still, with rain forecast either a reduced-overs affair or a stop-start mind muddle for batsmen points to a low-scoring contest. Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around the 2.809/5 mark.

Match odds
Hell, we could be here all day debating the respective merits of these two sides - England bat deeper, South Africa have the smarter crew - but it pales into insignificance when you consider the toss bias. Yup, it's a cracker, too.

In the seven matches which have produced results each have been won by the side chasing. Bonkers I know but it is impossible, not to mention pure folly, to ignore.

England are 2.1211/10 and South Africa are 1.8910/11. The toss is a fifty-fifty call. Or a 2.001/1 shot. So who is the value? Corrrect. It's England. Easy this betting lark really.

Top England runscorer
In batting conditions which are testing, it is not surprising that one would eschew the flashy strokemakers. So sorry, Bell, Bairstow, Bopara and Kieswetter, stodge is what we want. Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott both dropped anchor for half-tons last time out at this venue against India and you can't go far wrong by favouring them again.

Top South Africa runscorer
We should apply the same rule from the England market. Hashim Amla and Graeme Smith are expected to open the batting and both have techniques tight enough to warrant support. Dean Elgar showed form against Gloucestershire but wasn't quite in tune so will probably miss out. Shame Jacques Kallis is not playing, though, as he would have been well-supported.

Recommended bet
Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around 2.809/5

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Wigan v Chelsea: Blues can edge tight match

Recommended Bets
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.9n/a
Back 0-1 Correct Score @ 8.415/2
Back Half Time Draw @ 2.47/5
Back 9pts or Above Bookings Odds @ 2.021/1

Wigan entertain Chelsea at home this Sunday lunchtime with both teams looking to begin the season as they ended the last. The Latics will be hopeful of avoiding yet another relegation battle while the Blues appear set up to challenge for the title, writes Feizal Rahman.

Wigan Athletic v Chelsea, KO: Sunday 13:30, Sky Sports 1,
Match Odds: Wigan 6.411/2, Chelsea 1.664/6, The Draw 4.03/1

Despite winning the FA Cup and Champions League, Chelsea have spent heavily over the summer to address what was a disappointing Premier League campaign last year - lavishing in excess of £60m on Eden Hazard, Oscar and Marko Marin.

Wigan have lost forward Hugo Rodellega and midfielder Mohamed Diame but were able to add Arouna Kone and Ryo Miyaichi (loan). Yet, perhaps their most important piece of business was keeping hold of manager, Roberto Martinez.

Victor Moses is in the Latics' squad despite being the subject of interest from the Blues over the summer. Two of Chelsea's new boys, Hazard and Oscar, are set to make their league debuts, though Marin is sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Match Odds
Since gaining promotion to the Premier League, Wigan have won only two of their opening home games of the season and have twice lost to Chelsea in those. The Blues, conversely, have won eight of their last 10 openers on the road.

Chelsea have traditionally found the DW Stadium a happy hunting ground with five wins from seven visits. However, the Latics' sole victory against the West Londoners did come at home with a 3-1 victory against 10 men back in 2009.

Opta note that Wigan won their final four fixtures at home last season, a run that helped ensure their top flight survival. In contrast, Chelsea took maximum points in only one of their last nine away trips, losing four of those.

This fixture hints at being a typically tight first game of the season with both sides looking to blow away the cobwebs. However, Chelsea should have enough class to sneak the win at 1.664/6 and are around 2.26/5 to do so with a -1.0 Asian handicap.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Chelsea were far from prolific on the road last term, firing blanks in four of their last nine games in the league and failing to score more than once in all but one of those. Wigan, meanwhile, conceded just five from their final seven at home.

The visitors have twice won by a single goal at the DW Stadium and with their superior defence can be taken to repeat a 0-1 Correct Score at 8.415/2. Under 2.5 Goals trades at 1.981/1 but under 1.5 Goals may have greater appeal at 3.9n/a.

Other Markets

The Blues parted company with their talismanic striker, Didier Drogba, following the Champions League win and the goalscoring burden will now fall heavily on Fernando Torres, who has admitted he wasn't in the right frame of mind last season.

The Spaniard has, however, shown signs of a renaissance over the summer with goals in the European Championships and the Community Shield last weekend. He can be backed at 5.04/1 to be First Goalscorer and 2.26/5 To Score at any time.

In the 12 away games since Chelsea's last visit to Wigan, Roberto Di Matteo's side have led at half time just twice. Wigan, meanwhile, have trailed at the break on two occasions in their last eight home fixtures. The half-time draw is available at 2.47/5.

These were two of the most ill-disciplined teams last term with 114 cautions between them. Opta also highlight that Wigan committed the most fouls of any team, so 9pts and Above in the Bookings Odds at 2.021/1 may reward.

Recommended Bets
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.9n/a
Back 0-1 Correct Score @ 8.415/2
Back Half Time Draw @ 2.47/5
Back 9pts or Above Bookings Odds @ 2.021/1

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Chelsea-Mourinho reunion isn't as likely as Blues fans may hope

Premier League / Michael Lintorn / 05 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jose Mourinho will have lots of offers if he ends up out of work this summer

"It would arguably be just as sweet to win the Champions League with another Premier League side and show Roman Abramovich what he missed out on."

Michael Lintorn isn't buying into the idea that Jose Mourinho will be back at Chelsea by August, even after they sacked Andre Villas-Boas on Sunday...

Roberto Di Matteo has rather surprisingly been put in charge of Chelsea until the end of the season, but in a job which coaches with trophy-littered CVs struggle to hold for a year, the chances of him surviving the summer seem slim.

The media campaign engineered by those who wanted rid of Andre Villas-Boas - axed with apparent reluctance on Sunday - is already underway. The Sun quote a club source as saying: "If anything, they like Roberto even less. He's just too cock-sure." A characteristic unbecoming of a Chelsea chief, don't you think Jose!

Betfair aren't offering a next boss market at present because Di Matteo has been confirmed for the campaign, and will try to salvage things by delivering a top-four finish [[2.8]], FA Cup glory [[5.5]] - something their last caretaker achieved - and Champions League progress past Napoli [[3.25]].

However, given the lack of belief that Di Matteo, who was sacked six months into his only previous Premier League season as a manager by Villas-Boas' conquerors West Brom, will earn a long-term deal, the discussion as to who will succeed him is well underway.

Pep Guardiola, Rafael Benitez and Fabio Capello have all been mentioned, but if either of the latter two were serious contenders, surely they would have been hired immediately. The man most Blues supporters long for though is Jose Mourinho.

Everyone suspects that he will leave Real Madrid this summer - which is nowhere near as much of a certainty as is implied - and as he is never shy about his fondness for England, there is optimism about him returning to Stamford Bridge.

Mourinho says that he loves Chelsea, but is that enough of an incentive to return? His tendency is to go to a club, make them great then walk shortly afterwards. The lengthy pursuit of the Champions League meant that they were the one team that he didn't enjoy that happy ending with, yet is lifting that trophy there a substantial enough prize to risk failing to scale the heights of his first spell?

Yes, he is confident enough to back his own ability, though it would arguably be just as sweet to win the Champions League with another Premier League side and show Roman Abramovich what he missed out on.

The Abramovich factor is a major obstacle. Relations between the pair are said to have improved, however it is far from certain that the Russian will allow him the freedom of the transfer market that he desires, and Mourinho may resent handing the owner who dismissed him a second chance.

And then there's the ageing stars, who idolise Mourinho, yet are nearing retirement. He has never won the Champions League in his first season at a club, so would likely require at least two again, and it is a long shot that Frank Lampard and co will be performing to the necessary level in 2014.

Would he really be willing to rip apart the team that he built and cast aside players that he considers friends? This writer isn't convinced...

Eight managers in eight years since Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea tells its own story. Ralph Ellis looks at the situation at Chelsea and other examples of Chairmen getting involved in first team affairs....

Away victories for Manchester United and Arsenal and a costly loss for Chelsea on the road delivered handsome correct score prizes on Betfair this weekend......

Manchester United stretch their unbeaten run over Tottenham with a 3-1 win at White Hart Lane. Meanwhile, Stephane Sessegnon and Lee Cattermole see red and seven others receive yellows in an extremely bad-tempered Newcastle-Sunderland derby, while Fulham hit five past...

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