Premier League Round-Up: Discipline the difference at the top

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Roberto Mancini can't get to grips with 'problem' striker Mario Balotelli

"Roberto Mancini has done his best to handle a maverick whose self destructive tendencies were even beyond Jose Mourinho."

After Mario Balotelli's red card yesterday, and Wayne Rooney's extended run without a yellow card, Ralph Ellis makes a case for discipline being a vital factor in this season's title race.

To buy one brilliant but truculent striker might be considered bad luck; To get two borders on carelessness; To have signed three in the space of as many years means somebody at Manchester City simply doesn't learn his lessons.

Blame Mario Balotelli, as some have done this morning, for losing the Premier League title if you like. His red card in the final moments of the 1-0 defeat at Arsenal yesterday that left Manchester United with an eight point advantage at the top of the table was after all pretty damn stupid.

But has mad Mario really been any worse an influence on City's season than Carlos Tevez? At least Balotelli has been around to score 14 league goals in the 23 times he's been on the pitch. Is that better, or worse, than chucking your toys out of the pram and going home to Argentina for a three-month sulk on the golf course?

The real problem at Manchester City began back on September 1 2008 when the new owners chose to flaunt their wealth on the day they took over by hi-jacking Chelsea's move for Robinho, spending a £32.5million fee and paying him £160,000 a week. The Brazilian was meant to be the standard bearer for other top players to follow, instead he became the first of too many big egos who wanted to put their own interests ahead of the team. Did anybody responsible for City's recruitment learn the lesson? No. And that's why they've ended up where they are today.

Roberto Mancini has done his best to handle a maverick whose self destructive tendencies were even beyond Jose Mourinho. Now he's told the world that Balotelli will have to be sold in the summer - which is all very well but, just like with Tevez, they may find very limited the number of clubs willing to spend £25million or more and £200,000 a week on guaranteed trouble.

With money no object, perhaps City will simply solve their problems by signing Robin Van Persie. He clearly has his issues with Arsenal at the moment and is doing his level best to avoid signing a new contract. (Keep an eye on the Van Persie to stay) market in Betfair's Specials this summer). But in the meantime he has given his heart and soul to the club on the pitch, and set a superb captain's example. Arsenal, once in danger of failing to qualify for next year's Champions League, are now [1.53] to do it with a Top Three Finish.

Certainly Balotelli's antics have exposed Mancini's lack of experience at man management. Contrast with how Sir Alex Ferguson dealt many years ago with Eric Cantona, and more recently has thinned Wayne Rooney's red mist. Rooney's penalty against QPR yesterday has moved him just four goals behind Van Persie in the chase for the golden boot, and with six fairly benign fixtures left it's not too late to back him at [5.2] in the Top Goalscorer market.

Ferguson, right back to January 1995 when Cantona jumped into the crowd for his infamous kung-fu kick at a fan, has always found the way to harness maverick talent to the team. This year the statistic that Rooney has not been booked all season in a Manchester United shirt is probably as significant as the number of goals he has scored.

Newcastle's 2-0 win at Swansea on Friday evening was the first time I'd seen Papiss Cisse play live, and what struck me was not just the quality of his finishing for both goals, but the way he is already immersed in Alan Pardew's team ethic. The tactics demanded that he and Demba Ba took turns at playing the lone front role, and when it wasn't their go they had to fill in on the left to stop full back Angel Rangel getting forward. Cisse did the job without a murmur, and before today's home game with Bolton were [8.4] for a Top Four Finish.

Pardew has certainly spent well the £35million he got for Andy Carroll, whose nightmare at Anfield continued in a 1-1 draw with what looked like Aston Villa's youth team. Amazingly Liverpool, on a desperate run that has seen them win in 90 minutes only three of their last 12 games, are [2.38] favourites to beat Everton in Saturday's FA Cup semi-final.

Two teams who have seriously under-achieved this campaign meet on Tueday night and it's hard to pick a winner. The draw is over-priced anyway so it makes sense to think a share of the spoils is on the cards, says...

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Handicappers' Corner: Baker proves the difference in Winter Derby

Handicappers' Corner / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Premio Loco ran to a figure of 119 in the Winter Derby

"A figure of 119 is the highest awarded to the Winter Derby winner since the race was introduced in 1998..."

Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective...

Winter Flat racing fans were denied the opportunity to see much of George Baker throughout the season after a fall at Wolverhampton in October saw him suffer a broken arm which kept him off the track for over three months, but since his return, he's been regularly reminding them of what they have missed, and there was no greater example of his talents than his ride on Premio Loco in the Winter Derby.

If ever there was an example of a race won and lost in the early part of the race, then this was it. Both Baker and Jamie Spencer, on runner-up Cai Shen, had wide draws to overcome, and with just half a length between them at the line, Baker's decision to be aggressive and take his horse forward into a prominent position was surely crucial, saving ground as well as getting first run in a race that the sectional times confirm was run to suit those ridden prominently.

Premio Loco was rated 122 at his peak in 2010, and it reflects well on his trainer Chris Wall that he is just about as good as ever as an 8-y-o, running to a figure of 119 on Saturday and defying a Group 2 penalty for his success in last year's Park Stakes.

A figure of 119 is the highest awarded to the Winter Derby winner since the race was introduced in 1998 and is marginally higher than what the five-year race standards would suggest.

The runner-up Cai Shen deserves plenty of credit too and is in for a good season, the fact he matched his pre-race rating of 114 suggesting he can build on it when things go more his way. A head behind him was Circumvent who returned to pick of his 3-y-o form in running to 113.

A couple of listed races supported the card and it was Gusto that took the Spring Cup for Richard Hannon. Hannon has brought back Dubawi Gold and Paco Boy in this race in recent times, so it would be surprising if this proves to be the highlight of Gusto's career.

Gusto improved to a figure of 111, the highest awarded to the winner since the race was introduced, but he remains rated behind the third, Bannock (113) whose performance figure of 104+ would surely have been bettered had he not had to race so wide from stall 10. The runner-up Kenny Powers was fit from Dubai and showed much-improved form to earn a rating of 106, finishing strongly from further back than ideal.

The form of the Hever Sprint Stakes looks all the more shaky. There's no doubt Fratellino improved on anything he'd done previously, and he's now rated 111, up 9 lb from 102. But having had the ideal run through, it would be a surprise if he could confirm the form against some of his higher-rated rivals who weren't seen to best effect, notably the fast-finishing second Spirit Quartz (up to 112, bare performance figure of 109+) and the hampered Medicean Man (remains on 115).

The 1m maiden saw Forgotten Hero run out an impressive winner, and he could have a classic trial on his agenda. Sent off odds-on to beat Horris Hill-third Hazaz, he comfortably came home 6 lengths clear of that rival, and though running only to a bare figure of 92+, is now rated 102p.

Over in the States, former Ed McMahon inmate Went The Day Well put himself in line for a crack at the Kentucky Derby with his success in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.

Representing the same connections as Animal Kingdom, who won the same contest twelve months ago and followed up in the Run For The Roses, Went The Day Well earned a rating of 117, still 7lb behind current favourite, Union Rags.

Race Passes subscribers already enjoy access to our ratings, form & in-play data. And now there's more - we've added a list of Horses In Focus, last 3 runs on the meeting summary & coverage of big races abroad. And all for the same price!

Exciting though it was, The Breeders' Cup promised more than it delivered and needs to look to its laurels. Simon Rowlands considers the event from a rating point of view, in a week which also featured the Melbourne Cup and some good jumps action......

Form rather than hype, substance over style, achievement more than potential. That has long been the Timeform mantra, but this weekend's best Flat action provided an exception. Timeform Flat handicapper David Johnson explains....

It's had its knockers but, with Ascot bathed in autumn sunshine and high-quality fields for all five pattern races, few can argue that British Champions Day was anything but a resounding success. David Johnson reflects on the results from a ratings perspective......

Future Champions Day was the highlight of the racing in Europe this weekend, but, with neither the Middle Park nor Dewhurst producing a commanding winner, it's most unlikely that Timeform's Champion two-year-old was in action. We may, however, still have seen a top-class colt, as David Johnson reveals....

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Donald McCain: What a difference a week makes

Donald McCain / Donald McCain / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Weird Al is now on course for the Betfair Chase on November 19

"He hasn’t had much continuity through his career for a number of reasons but, fingers crossed, everything looks fine at the moment...."

A week on from Weird Al's Charlie Hall Chase win, Donald McCain reveals exclusively that he will now head to the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 19. Donald also gives updates on some of the other big guns in the stable in his third weekly column.

What a difference seven days makes - after the disappointment of the previous week, last weekend was one to remember with Weird Al's win in the Charlie Hall a thrill for all at the stable.

I was delighted with the way he did it and I thought Timmy [Murphy] gave him a great ride - he really only knew he was in a race from three out.

He seems to have come out of the race very well, which was obviously a slight concern given the problems he has had over the years. He hasn't had much continuity through his career for a number of reasons but, fingers crossed, everything looks fine at the moment.

The plan for him now is to head for Haydock for the Betfair Chase on November 19 - he is owned by some local lads and we have taken the view that the best time to take on Long Run and Kauto Star could be when they are having their reappearance.

It's certainly an exciting time - it sounds a bit cocky but he really didn't seem to have much of a race at Wetherby and there were still signs through the race that he was a bit green. There is definitely a big engine there though and I couldn't be more pleased with him.

This is going to be a quieter weekend than I was expecting - we had plenty entered up but some wanted softer ground and a few wanted better ground! There are plenty bubbling under and ready to go though, and this does look the calm before the storm.

Wednesday is going to be a big day for the stable with Peddlers Cross due to make his chasing debut at Bangor - he is in at Exeter as well, but that is just in case the Bangor ground were to come up very fast.

I am looking forward to it as much as you can look forward to a horse making its chasing debut - particularly one of his ability - and he is in grand form at home, has schooled well and is just the consummate professional.

We know he is top class and hopefully he will get the job done and we can then start worrying about what comes next.

You may have seen that Overturn was entered in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton but he is going to bypass that and head for the Ascot Hurdle on November 19.

Ascot has been the plan for him for a while now and although the Wincanton race has cut up, I just felt he wasn't quite ready for it.

Finally, I have some positive news regarding Jason Maguire, who has been out of action since that horrible fall in August.

He says he feels great in himself and has been at the yard riding out and schooling. He received the all-clear from his specialist earlier in the week and now it is just a case of when Dr Turner gives him the green light - hopefully we won't have too long to wait.

Weekend Runners, 9am Saturday

Don't forget to check out my column at 9am Saturday for all my Weekend Runners, including my best chances.

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Donald has three runners at Carlisle on Sunday and a couple of them look to have leading chances....

Donald's two best chances last weekend were both non-runners, but he's hoping for a better time of it with his second Betfair column......

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