Handicappers' Corner: Lockinge proves Farhh too easy

"An analysis of the overall time backs up the view that Farhh put up a top-class effort, recording a timefigure of 131..."

An excellent week of racing, York's Dante meeting a precursor to Group 1 action at Newbury, and there's plenty to reflect upon. David Johnson goes into greater detail...

Any fears that the mile division for older horses might be rather short of the usual quality were quickly allayed shortly after 15:50 on Saturday as the Saeed bin Suroor-trained Farhh ran away with the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. 

The perennial bridesmaid last year, there was no doubting that Farhh was Group 1 standard - he was top-rated on Saturday with a rating good enough to have won three of the last five renewals of the race, but given the nature that he won, and the margins involved, it's Timeform's view that Farhh has come back an improved performer, earning a new Timeform rating of 132.

Although a shade keen in the early stages, Farhh was travelling best from a long way out and never looked in any danger after going on around 2f out, still strong at the finish as he pulled four lengths clear of Sovereign Debt. Both the runner-up, and third Aljamaaheer have also been credited with personal bests, both running to 121.

Historical race standards give a range of 127-141 for the winner, whilst prior-ratings standards point to a figure in the low 130s. 

Since the Lockinge was upgraded to Group 1 status in 1995, only Frankel (144+) in 2012 and Hawk Wing (136) in 2003 have put up higher-rated winning performances, whilst Keltos in 2002 also ran to 132.  

An analysis of the overall time backs up the view that Farhh put up a top-class effort, recording a timefigure of 131. 

In terms of final time analysis, only Workforce (Derby), Harbinger (King George) and Frankel (Guineas, Lockinge, Juddmonte, Champion Stakes) have recorded superior timefigures in the last four seasons.

A rating of 132 sees Farhh as the one to beat in both the Queen Anne (Animal Kingdom is currently rated 128) and Prince of Wales's Stakes, and whilst the Lockinge was Farhh's first success at the top level, it will be surprising if it's his last.

Earlier on the Newbury card, Willing Foe provided Godolphin with the first leg of a double in the Aston Park Stakes. This listed race has a habit of unearthing genuine Group-class performers and it seems the case again as Willing Foe earned a figure of 120 for his wide-margin win over Harris Tweed. 

Whether Willing Foe proves effective over the two and a half miles of the Gold Cup or not, he's certainly worth aiming at other Cup races, his rating higher than those awarded to Glen's Diamond (116) and Top Trip (118) for pulling clear in the Yorkshire Cup the previous afternoon.

If the Yorkshire Cup wasn't a vintage renewal, there is perhaps a feeling that was also the case with York's major classic trials, the Musidora and the Dante.

The Musidora attracted a typically small field, but one that was weaker than usual, and it went to the highly-touted Liber Nauticus. Rated 101P prior to the race, Liber Nauticus kept her unbeaten record and moves on to 109p.

Liber Nauticus will be suited by the step up to a mile and half, whilst she still looked green at York, but perhaps Secret Gesture and Moth have stronger Oaks credentials at present.

The Dante lost a lot of significance after Telescope wasn't declared following a late setback, and it certainly had the feel of a substandard renewal, just over four lengths covering the first five home.

Standards suggested a range of 113-122 for the winner and Libertarian's figure of 114 is the joint-lowest this century, alongside Black Bear Island (2009) and Magistretti (2003).

The highest-rating earned at York was that by Society Rock who defied his Group 1 penalty to go two places better than in the previous year's Duke of York Stakes. Confirming his 126 rating, he looks the strongest of the home contenders for the Diamond Jubilee, a race in which he has a very good record.

This week also saw a number of Group-class performances in handicaps, the pick of which was First Mohican who ran to 119p when winning the first race at the Dante meeting. Sir John Hawkwood ran to 116 to win the Jorvik Stakes and at Hamilton, Mijhaar ran to the same level in the Braveheart Stakes.

With Royal Ascot just four weeks away, the juvenile action is beginning to gather pace. The Aidan O'Brien-trained Stubbs is surely bound for that meeting after breaking his maiden at the second attempt at the weekend, and his rating of 99p is the best a juvenile has recorded so far.

Not far behind on a rating of 98p is Beldale Memory who maintained her unbeaten record in the listed Marygate Stakes at York. Ceiling Kitty followed up her success in that in the Queen Mary and that looks an obvious target. A median rating of 107 has been required to win the Queen Mary in the last five years.

Finally, the wait for a US Triple Crown winner goes on, as Orb's bid was derailed with defeat in the second leg, the Preakness Stakes. On 124, he remains the highest-rated 3-y-o in North America though, with the Preakness winner Oxbow adjudged to have run to 122. 

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Cheltenham Festival 2013: Handicappers' Corner Special

"Sprinter Sacre’s imperious display in the Queen Mother Champion Chase earned him a rating of c192p, which is the highest since our Chasers & Hurdlers series began in 1975/6..."

Politics certainly isn't the only field in which "a week is a long time", explains jumps handicapper Phil Turner.

Indeed, I can report that it has been quite an eventful seven days for Welsh-born Evertonians who put ratings on horses for a living. It began with Everton being unceremoniously dumped out of the FA Cup by unfancied Wigan, whilst the day job got off to a similarly unpromising start when My Tent Or Yours (14lb clear on Timeform ratings) suffered defeat in the Cheltenham Festival opener on Tuesday. Fortunately, things rallied splendidly thereafter, and the week ended with Bobs Worth leading home a one-two-three for Timeform ratings in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Everton beating Premier League champions Manchester City. Oh, and in case anyone missed Saturday evening's rugby result, Wales thumped England to claim the Six Nations' title again. Smug doesn't even come close to covering it...

Although Wales ruled the roost in the rugby, it was Ireland - and particularly Willie Mullins - who stole the honours at the Cheltenham Festival, claiming a record haul of 14 wins. Mullins supplied five of those successes, with pride of place going to Hurricane Fly (Timeform rating h173), who became the first horse since Comedy of Errors in 1975 to regain his Champion Hurdle crown when producing a gutsy display to beat 2012 winner Rock On Ruby (h168) and Countrywide Flame (h164) - though the performances of the latter pair did provoke thoughts of "what might have been" with Darlan (h170), who was set to beat that pair comprehensively at Doncaster last month when suffering a fatal fall. 

That's 15 Grade 1 wins now for Hurricane Fly, which is a remarkable achievement that arguably hasn't received the credit it deserves. Indeed, many of the pre-Cheltenham preview nights downplayed Hurricane Fly's record due to him "beating the same horses on Irish soil". The folly of this argument was further highlighted when Solwhit (h164) - defeated by Hurricane Fly on four out of their five meetings - showed himself to be better than ever when winning the World Hurdle. Hot favourite Oscar Whisky (h167) patently failed to give his running in the World Hurdle but, happily, that proved to be the exception to the rule during Festival week, with most of the leading players running to somewhere near their best and producing some reliable-looking results.

Take the Gold Cup, for example, which saw all of the leading players run to form, Bobs Worth (c179) emerging as an above-average winner of the race as he stayed on strongly in the rain-softened conditions to beat Sir des Champs (c173) by seven lengths, with 2011 hero Long Run (c172) finishing third for the second year running - the last-named gelding is now rated on the balance of his form over the past two seasons. Silviniaco Conti (c172+) could well have stirred things up had he not fallen three out when still going strongly and, along with the Gold Cup first two, underlined what a vintage crop of novice chasers we enjoyed in 2011/12.

Second-season chasers duly dominated the other open Grade 1 chases at the meeting, with Cue Card (c175) proving far too strong for First Lieutenant (c166) and For Non Stop (c163) in the Ryanair Chase, in which 2012 winner Riverside Theatre (c162) could manage only fourth this time around. The Ryanair provided long overdue recognition on the big stage for Cue Card and confirmed our view that he is one of the very best horses in training - he now shares the same rating as Cheltenham absentee, and fellow second-season chaser, Flemenstar (c175) and they sit below only Bobs Worth and Sprinter Sacre in the Timeform chase rankings.

Ah yes, Sprinter Sacre. As many readers may already be aware, Sprinter Sacre's imperious display in the Queen Mother Champion Chase earned him a rating of c192p, which is the highest since our Chasers & Hurdlers series began in 1975/6, whilst the Tom Dreaper-trained superstars of the 1960s, Arkle and Flyingbolt, are the only horses to have achieved a higher rating in Timeform's 65-year history. It could be argued that the Champion Chase should be rated even higher, as neither of the placed horses have been rated as running to their very best Timeform figure, though a late stumble (plus the effort of trying to match strides with Sprinter Sacre) almost certainly contributed to 2011 winner Sizing Europe (c173) tiring close home as he finished 19 lengths back in second, running some 6lb below his best.

Simonsig (c162P) remains the most plausible challenger to stable-companion Sprinter Sacre in 2013/14, even though his win in the Arkle Chase wasn't quite as impressive as most had imagined it would be. That said, the grey still ran to a very high level of form in defeating Irish raider Baily Green (c157), who had a better chance on form than the betting suggested. In addition, Simonsig rather compromised his chance by racing too freely and jumping less fluently than usual, so it reflects well on him that he still had enough in reserve to hold on in the latter stages - particularly as fellow pacesetters Overturn (c156) and Arvika Ligeonierre (c155) folded tamely out of contention.

With the exception of Simonsig, the novice chasers on show at last week's Festival didn't look anything out of the ordinary and seem unlikely to be emulating that vintage crop from last season come next March. By contrast, there was an abundance of potential top-class performers to be found amongst the novice hurdlers in action over the four-day meeting. 

Despite that chastening defeat in the Supreme Novices', My Tent Or Yours (h167) remains very much one to consider for the 2014 Champion Hurdle, the manner in which he tanked through the race (combined with some very fluent jumping) going a long way to confirm the striking impression he'd made when winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. His Achilles' heel at this stage remains his response to pressure against a very tough opponent - his Cheltenham second to Champagne Fever (h165) was a carbon copy to the latter stages of last season's Aintree bumper, when he lost out to The New One. 

It also needs stressing that the 2013 Supreme looks a vintage renewal, with Champagne Fever, My Tent Or Yours and third-placed Jezki (h162) pulling fully 15 lengths clear of the remainder off a sound pace.  In addition, it is worth remembering that Sprinter Sacre also failed to get up the hill so well as seemed likely after pulling very hard for Tony McCoy when only third in a similarly strong Supreme in 2011, so it is certainly too soon to be writing off My Tent Or Yours.

The aforementioned The New One (h155p) could be renewing rivalry with My Tent Or Yours in 2013/14 if connections opt to drop him in trip following his impressive win in the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle. The New One certainly showed an impressive turn of foot to put that race to bed after a steady early gallop, whilst the likes of Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Rock On Ruby all contested this 21-furlong novice championship 12 months prior to tasting Champion Hurdle glory for the first time.

Perhaps the brightest Champion Hurdle hope to emerge from last week's Festival, however, was Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor (h160p), who posted the highest rating by a juvenile since Jair du Cochet (163 in 2000/01) and subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Hors La Loi III (162p in 1998/99). The Triumph form made plenty of sense amongst the main pack, so it is safe to assume that Our Conor is full value (at the very least!) for his 15-length winning margin and he should prove a formidable opponent to Hurricane Fly on Irish soil next winter.

In common with Our Conor, At Fishers Cross (h153p) can boast a 100% record in 2012/13 - including a defeat of The New One - and he justified favouritism in highly satisfactory fashion in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. It was a landmark Grade 1 victory for up-and-coming trainer Rebecca Curtis and ensured it wasn't the only Welsh victory over highly-touted English rivals last week...

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Handicappers' Corner: Baker proves the difference in Winter Derby

Handicappers' Corner / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Premio Loco ran to a figure of 119 in the Winter Derby

"A figure of 119 is the highest awarded to the Winter Derby winner since the race was introduced in 1998..."

Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective...

Winter Flat racing fans were denied the opportunity to see much of George Baker throughout the season after a fall at Wolverhampton in October saw him suffer a broken arm which kept him off the track for over three months, but since his return, he's been regularly reminding them of what they have missed, and there was no greater example of his talents than his ride on Premio Loco in the Winter Derby.

If ever there was an example of a race won and lost in the early part of the race, then this was it. Both Baker and Jamie Spencer, on runner-up Cai Shen, had wide draws to overcome, and with just half a length between them at the line, Baker's decision to be aggressive and take his horse forward into a prominent position was surely crucial, saving ground as well as getting first run in a race that the sectional times confirm was run to suit those ridden prominently.

Premio Loco was rated 122 at his peak in 2010, and it reflects well on his trainer Chris Wall that he is just about as good as ever as an 8-y-o, running to a figure of 119 on Saturday and defying a Group 2 penalty for his success in last year's Park Stakes.

A figure of 119 is the highest awarded to the Winter Derby winner since the race was introduced in 1998 and is marginally higher than what the five-year race standards would suggest.

The runner-up Cai Shen deserves plenty of credit too and is in for a good season, the fact he matched his pre-race rating of 114 suggesting he can build on it when things go more his way. A head behind him was Circumvent who returned to pick of his 3-y-o form in running to 113.

A couple of listed races supported the card and it was Gusto that took the Spring Cup for Richard Hannon. Hannon has brought back Dubawi Gold and Paco Boy in this race in recent times, so it would be surprising if this proves to be the highlight of Gusto's career.

Gusto improved to a figure of 111, the highest awarded to the winner since the race was introduced, but he remains rated behind the third, Bannock (113) whose performance figure of 104+ would surely have been bettered had he not had to race so wide from stall 10. The runner-up Kenny Powers was fit from Dubai and showed much-improved form to earn a rating of 106, finishing strongly from further back than ideal.

The form of the Hever Sprint Stakes looks all the more shaky. There's no doubt Fratellino improved on anything he'd done previously, and he's now rated 111, up 9 lb from 102. But having had the ideal run through, it would be a surprise if he could confirm the form against some of his higher-rated rivals who weren't seen to best effect, notably the fast-finishing second Spirit Quartz (up to 112, bare performance figure of 109+) and the hampered Medicean Man (remains on 115).

The 1m maiden saw Forgotten Hero run out an impressive winner, and he could have a classic trial on his agenda. Sent off odds-on to beat Horris Hill-third Hazaz, he comfortably came home 6 lengths clear of that rival, and though running only to a bare figure of 92+, is now rated 102p.

Over in the States, former Ed McMahon inmate Went The Day Well put himself in line for a crack at the Kentucky Derby with his success in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.

Representing the same connections as Animal Kingdom, who won the same contest twelve months ago and followed up in the Run For The Roses, Went The Day Well earned a rating of 117, still 7lb behind current favourite, Union Rags.

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Handicappers' Corner: Ballabriggs fit for National service now?

Timeform Debate / Phil Turner / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ballabriggs returned at Kelso

"Bar an uncharacteristic blunder at the eleventh, Ballabriggs both travelled and jumped with typical fluency..."

Although racing has entered its usual quiet storm before next week's Cheltenham Festival, several leading Grand National hopefuls have been flexing their muscles in recent days, so jumps handicapper Phil Turner casts his eye over the latest picture for the Aintree showpiece....

Chief amongst those seen out last weekend was, of course, the 2011 hero Ballabriggs (Timeform rating c159), who again warmed up for Aintree by tackling the Kelso Premier Chase over two and three-quarter miles on Saturday. Although Ballabriggs finished two places worse off than when runner-up in the 2011 renewal, his fourth to Master of The Hall (c155) actually represents the same form he'd shown on that final prep run prior to Aintree glory.

Indeed, trainer Donald McCain reported himself happy with the comeback run and understandably so, given the gelding ultimately shaped as if the outing was just needed. Bar an uncharacteristic blunder at the eleventh, Ballabriggs both travelled and jumped with typical fluency before edging ahead on the long run-in until his lack of a recent run told late on. He'll clearly come on for the outing, though the fact remains that he's been allotted a stiff task by the BHA handicapper in his bid to become the first back-to-back National winner since Red Rum in 1974 and, as such, others make more appeal in the ante-post market.

Similar comments apply to Kelso runner-up According To Pete (c148), who stuck to his task well over an inadequate trip on Saturday but still looks plenty high enough in the weights now following earlier heroics this winter. Third-placed Abbeybraney (c137) also holds a Grand National entry, but he'll struggle to get a run in the big race (currently 9 lb out of the weights), whilst there must be a chance he'll prove slightly flattered by his Kelso effort.

Elsewhere on Saturday, long-standing National fancy Junior (c158) was in action in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster, which was also the prep race that the McCain stable used for Amberleigh House prior to his 2004 Aintree victory. Junior certainly shaped a good deal more convincingly than on his comeback run over hurdles, failing by just a short head to defeat the well-treated Ikorodu Road (c136) having been hampered slightly by last-fence faller Pentiffic (c132), which shows he's clearly not handicapped out of things off a 19 lb higher mark than when running out a wide-margin winner of last season's Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival.

Although there were plenty of positives to be gleaned from a form viewpoint after Saturday's narrow second, the fact Junior had a harder race than ideal tempers enthusiasm for his Aintree prospects somewhat, whilst his tendency to neither travel or jump with complete fluency would also be a concern with regards to a well-run National.

The latter point certainly isn't an issue with Niche Market (c151), who cut a bold sight up with the pace when finishing a gallant fifth in the 2011 edition of the Aintree showpiece, whilst he also shaped well over those unique fences when runner-up to West End Rocker (who missed the Grimthorpe due to ground concerns) in the Becher Chase there in early-December. Admittedly, the eleven-year-old Niche Market is still without a win since the 2009 Irish National, but he's crept back down to an attractive mark and emerged with plenty of credit when runner-up to the lightly-weighted Marufo (c129) in a veterans' event at Newbury on Saturday, particularly as the pair pulled 24 lengths clear of the remainder.

Niche Market seems sure to give his supporters another good run for their money at Aintree but, in truth, he still looks up against it at the weights in relation to Prince de Beauchene (c164), who heads our ratings by some margin on the back of his impressive return to action in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse late last month.

Adjusted Timeform ratings for Grand National:

Prince de Beauchene 193
Weird Al 184
Niche Market 181
Burton Port 180
Quantitativeeasing 180
Giles Cross 178
Neptune Collonges 178
Hold On Julio 177p
Cappa Bleu 177+
Junior 177
Massini's Maguire 177
Scotsirish 177
Synchronised 177
Seabass 176
Treacle 176
(Selected others: According To Pete 171, Ballabriggs 171 and West End Rocker 171)

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Handicappers' Corner: Will Williams claim a Festival Triumph?

Handicappers' Corner / Phil Turner / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nick Williams: Trainer of Urbain de Sivola.

"The fact Urbain de Sivola has been declared a definite runner is also a bonus and, in our opinion, he should be trading at considerably shorter odds than he currently is..."

The Triumph Hurdle has thrown up more than its fair share of big-priced winners down the years and, with no superstar to have emerged from the latest crop of juveniles, jumps handicapper Phil Turner argues that it could pay to search for value again this time around.....

Indeed, there has been plenty of action amongst the leading home-trained juveniles during the past week or so, yet the Nick Williams-trained Urbain de Sivola (Timeform rating h145) remains our highest-rated four-year-old and still warrants plenty of respect for Friday's opener despite having had to settle for a dead-heat with the year-older Ifyouletmefinish (h135) in a novice at Taunton last week.

Although bookmakers and punters alike seemed underwhelmed initially by that performance, it must be stressed that Urbain de Sivola's Triumph Hurdle claims actually didn't take a dent in form terms - he was receiving just 2 lb from a useful older novice at Taunton, whilst his clear-cut defeat of Ranjaan (h144p) at Newbury back in the autumn could hardly have worked out better. The fact Urbain de Sivola has been declared a definite runner is also a bonus and, in our opinion, he should be trading at considerably shorter odds than he currently is.

Williams, of course, has yet to saddle a Cheltenham Festival winner, but he's had several near-misses so far (no less than seven placed runners from his small team) and he can take solace from the fact that the Triumph Hurdle saw training greats Martin Pipe and David Nicholson break their ducks at the meeting with Baron Blakeney (66/1 in 1981) and Solar Cloud (40/1 in 1985) respectively, the latter also providing jockey Peter Scudamore with his long-awaited first Festival win.

Ranjaan's trainer Paul Nicholls, of course, has enjoyed plenty more good days than near-misses at the Festival in recent years, including in the Triumph itself thanks to victories by Celestial Halo in 2008 and Zarkandar (also a first Festival win for Williams' former stable jockey Daryl Jacob) in 2011. Nicholls looks to have a strong team again this time around, with the likes of Pearl Swan (h142) and Hinterland (h139+) also towards the head of Timeform's juvenile ratings at the moment.

It is possible, however, that his useful Irish Flat recruit Dodging Bullets (h131p) could emerge as the stable's best juvenile prospect alongside Ranjaan. He certainly shaped with plenty of promise when runner-up in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday, which was dominated by juveniles this year, with victory going to the more-experienced Grumeti (h140).

That was a third win from four starts over hurdles for Grumeti, falling with the race at his mercy on the other occasion, but he looks more exposed than most of the others towards the head of the Triumph Hurdle ante-post market and arguably lacks the stamina reserves often associated with winners of the Cheltenham race.

It is also possible that Grumeti isn't even the best four-year-old in his yard as Alan King, like Nicholls, has assembled another very strong team of juveniles and looks to have an even better prospect on his hands in the French import Balder Succes (h141p). Like some of the names already mentioned, Balder Succes has been mixing it successfully with older novices this winter and maintained his 100% record over hurdles with an impressive win in an Ascot novice recently.

The best Triumph trial in recent years, though, has been the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle and there was an up-to-scratch renewal of that Kempton race on Saturday, with Baby Mix (h143) bouncing back from last month's Cheltenham flop to lower the colours of Sadler's Risk (h133), whilst fellow Triumph hopefuls Une Artiste (h127) and Dildar (h115p) came up well short for differing reasons. Sadler's Risk is likely to be suited by the stiffer test of stamina on offer at Cheltenham but, even so, he's got a bit to find if he's to trouble Baby Mix there - or Urbain de Sivola for that matter!

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Timeform ratings are in fine form! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton on Saturday was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

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Future Champions Day was the highlight of the racing in Europe this weekend, but, with neither the Middle Park nor Dewhurst producing a commanding winner, it's most unlikely that Timeform's Champion two-year-old was in action. We may, however, still have seen a top-class colt, as David Johnson reveals....

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Handicappers' Corner: A hiccup for Nicholls?

Timeform Debate / Phil Turner / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

It was largely a weekend to forget for the champion trainer

"On a positive note, that sole winner was Zarkandar (Timeform rating h158p), who maintained his 100% record over hurdles with a winning reappearance in the very valuable Betfair Hurdle..."

Dealing with an irritating cough can be a tricky business, so jumps handicapper Phil Turner has plenty of sympathy for champion trainer Paul Nicholls at present.

Even a trip to the chemist can be fraught with hazards, as American comic Jerry Seinfeld once bemoaned his dilemma in choosing between two bottles of cough mixtures billed as quick-acting or long-lasting - "when do I want to feel better, now or later?!?"

Nicholls would presumably plump for both bottles to ensure the outbreak of coughing which has hit his yard in recent days will be long gone by Tuesday March 13, the opening day of this year's Cheltenham Festival. In truth, "outbreak" may be overselling the problem - Nicholls has reported he has "several horses coughing" - but a haul of just one win from thirty-one runners on Friday, Saturday and Sunday is clearly a worrying sign given the yard's very high standards.

On a positive note, that sole winner was Zarkandar (Timeform rating h158p), who maintained his 100% record over hurdles with a winning reappearance in the very valuable Betfair Hurdle at Newbury's rearranged card on Friday. Although the bare form of that win still leaves him with plenty to find in regard to reigning champion Hurricane Fly (h174), Zarkandar remains open to further improvement and again displayed a very pleasing attitude at Newbury, particularly as he was arguably left with a bit too much to do in what was a messy race.

Indeed, Zarkandar seems set to head a four-strong team for Nicholls in the Champion Hurdle, which is reportedly the trainer's "most-wanted race" missing from his CV. His other Champion Hurdle hopefuls at this stage are Rock On Ruby (h165), Celestial Halo (h163) and Brampour (h159), the last-named gelding having shaped much better than the result suggests when a never-nearer seventh behind Zarkandar on Friday. Significantly, however, stable jockey Ruby Walsh is due to stay loyal to Hurricane Fly.

Celestial Halo, of course, came closest to providing Nicholls with that elusive first Champion Hurdle win when beaten just a neck in the 2009 renewal, but it seems most unlikely he'll be going one better come March 13 on the evidence of his comprehensive defeat by 2010 hero Binocular (h167) in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday. Binocular, on the other hand, has re-emerged as a live contender and arguably now makes more appeal than stable-companion Grandouet (h165), who was replaced by Binocular at Wincanton due to a late setback.

That minor blip with Grandouet has been a rare bit of bad news for Nicky Henderson as, in contrast to Nicholls, his team has been in rude health during February, with Binocular just one of several big-race winners for the yard at Newbury, Ascot and Wincanton on Friday and Saturday.

Henderson saddled a one-two in both the Betfair Denman Chase and the Betfair Super Saturday Chase (Game Spirit) at Newbury on Friday, thanks to Long Run (c182) and Burton Port (c166) in the former, plus Sprinter Sacre (c160p) and French Opera (c156) in the latter. It was a satisfactory return to winning ways for Long Run, particularly as he was conceding 10 lb to Burton Port, though the latter also emerged with plenty to credit on his return from a lengthy absence and must firmly enter the Grand National picture now.

Sprinter Sacre has long since headed the ante-post betting for the Arkle and he cemented his position as favourite with another breath-taking display in the Game Spirit, though the Nicholls-trained Al Ferof still heads (just!) the Timeform novice chaser ratings on c161.

Henderson's other main Cheltenham Festival novice chasing hope Bobs Worth (c152p) had to settle for second behind the Alan King-trained Invictus (c146p) in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot on Saturday, though connections were reportedly thrilled with the gelding's performance after a rushed preparation (had undergone breathing surgery since last seen on Boxing Day). Bobs Worth remains a top-class prospect, though his jumping will need to be more polished than on his last two starts if he's to fulfil his undoubted potential.

Roles were reversed in Ascot's main race on Saturday, with Henderson's Riverside Theatre (c171) proving too strong for the King-trained Medermit (c168) in the Betfair Ascot Chase. Riverside Theatre hadn't been seen since winning the 2011 renewal of the same race and looks every bit as good as ever judging by Saturday's convincing display - indeed, he appeals as one of the standout Cheltenham Festival bets at present given his current odds in the Ryanair Chase market.

Timeform look back at a weekend featuring a winning return for Riverside Theatre in the Betfair Ascot Chase, a double for Donald McCain on the Ascot card and a battling victory for Giles Cross in Haydock's Grand National Trial......

Timeform preview an excellent weekend of racing, featuring action from Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton on Saturday, and Navan on Sunday......

The first race in the Timeform Blueprint Series is a 1200m World Sprint Challenge, featuring the undefeated Australian sensation Black Caviar. If you want to find out how she fared against the other best sprinters in the world, read on.......

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Handicappers' Corner: Big Buck's vs Hurricane Fly

The Cheltenham Festival / Phil Turner / 30 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Big Buck's vs Hurricane Fly would be a match to savour.

"As the ratings imply, Big Buck's would just get our vote, particularly as he looked every bit as good as ever when stretching his unbeaten record to fifteen..."

Racing For Change's main aim is to "broaden the appeal of the sport". The scheme's decision-makers could do a lot worse than put the feelers out to stage a match between the two outstanding hurdlers of the moment, argues Timeform jumps handicapper Phil Turner...

Both Hurricane Fly (Timeform rating h174) and Big Buck's (h176+) enhanced their reputations with imperious displays this weekend and, should they retain their respective Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle crowns as expected at the Cheltenham Festival in March, a mouth-watering clash between the pair would surely be what most racing fans would wish for before the season is out.

Indeed, history is littered with examples of how you cannot beat a good head-to-head to broaden interest in a sport. For example, worldwide news bulletins were dominated by chess (yes CHESS!) during the summer of 1972 as the much-anticipated world championship match between maverick young American Bobby Fischer and reigning champion Boris Spassky took place, with the former striking a blow for the Western World at the height of the Cold War as he wrested the title away from the Soviet Union for the first time in twenty-five years.

Some twelve months later, the American public were gripped by another high-profile sports talking point when retired tennis pro Bobby Riggs challenged the two leading female players of the day, Margaret Court and Billie-Jean King, to a "Battle of The Sexes" contest in a chauvinistic attempt to expose the weakness of the women's game. Fifty-five-year-old Riggs defeated Court 6-2 6-1, but then lost to King 4-6 3-6 3-6 in a match which was televised live nationally.

A closer example to any proposed Hurricane Fly-Big Buck's match came in 1997 when the reigning 100m and 200m Olympic champions, Donovan Bailey and Michael Johnson, met in a specially staged 150m race (75m curve and 75m straight) to decide who was the "World's Fastest Man". Unfortunately the race proved to be something of a damp squib, with Johnson pulling up "injured" once clearly held by Bailey.

A similar scenario befell "The Great International Race" at Belmont Park in 1923 between Zev and Papyrus, winners of that year's Kentucky Derby and Epsom Derby respectively, which proved a disappointingly one-sided affair due to the British raider failing to handle the unfamiliar dirt underfoot conditions.

Matches in horse-racing can work, however. An estimated forty million radio listeners tuned in to hear commentary of the "Match of The Century" between Seabiscuit and War Admiral at Pimlico in 1938, the events of which proved the centrepiece of a best-selling book and hit movie early in the 21st Century. Meanwhile, there was also huge interest in National Hunt's finest match to date, which came at the Punchestown Festival in 1986 when Irish racing authorities stumped up the bulk of a sizeable pot to attract a clash between that year's Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Dawn Run and Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Buck House.

Dawn Run won that particular "Battle of The Sexes" despite eschewing her usual mares' allowance to race at level weights and also dropping down to two miles. No such gimmicks would be required for any Hurricane Fly-Big Buck's clash, with the intermediate trip of two-and-a-half miles surely a fair compromise for both. So who would win?

As the ratings imply, Big Buck's would just get our vote, particularly as he looked every bit as good as ever when stretching his unbeaten record to fifteen with a seven-length defeat of Dynaste (h160) at Cheltenham on Saturday. If anything, though, Hurricane Fly was even more impressive when making light of rain-drenched conditions to beat Oscars Well (h164) by a cosy six-and-a-half lengths in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown twenty-four hours later, his performance all the more meritorious given it came after months of rumours and speculation as to his well-being. Perhaps the most pertinent question should any such match materialise is which of the pair would their regular pilot Ruby Walsh choose?

Unfortunately, one clash which won't be taking place (at Cheltenham at least) in the near future is that of Flemenstar (c153p) against the leading British-trained two-mile chasers Al Ferof (c161), Sprinter Sacre (154p), Cue Card (c154) and Peddlers Cross (c150p).

Flemenstar simply hasn't looked back since finishing runner-up to Bog Warrior (c154) on his chasing debut back in the autumn and confirmed himself a top-class prospect with a runaway win in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown on Sunday, but he'll reportedly be kept to Irish soil for the time being due to concerns about him being a bad traveller.

There are no such fears with regards to Boston Bob (h154p), who'll take plenty of beating in either the Neptune Novices' Hurdle or the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham - indeed, Fingal Bay (h156p) is the only novice so far in 2011/12 to have bettered the form Boston Bob showed when winning a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Sunday. He certainly makes more appeal at this stage than Batonnier (h135p), who showed a likeable attitude to win another Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham's Trials Day, yet will need to improve if he's to have place claims at the Festival.

Meanwhile, almost identical comments apply to Saturday's big race winner Midnight Chase (c162), who bounced back to his best to record a fifth Cheltenham success in the Argento Chase, but his two-and-a-quarter length defeat of the quirky Tidal Bay (c160$) is unlikely to have connections of Long Run (c182) or Kauto Star (c181) losing any sleep.

The Alan King-trained Montbazon got back to winning ways at Plumpton on Monday......

Diamond Harry will be checked out for a possible breathing problem after his run at Cheltenham on Saturday......

Henrietta Knight is leaving a decision on Somersby's Cheltenham target until as late as possible because of the unpredictability of the British weather......

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Handicappers' Corner: Big Buck's vs Hurricane Fly

The Cheltenham Festival / Phil Turner / 30 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Big Buck's vs Hurricane Fly would be a match to savour.

"As the ratings imply, Big Buck's would just get our vote, particularly as he looked every bit as good as ever when stretching his unbeaten record to fifteen..."

Racing For Change's main aim is to "broaden the appeal of the sport". The scheme's decision-makers could do a lot worse than put the feelers out to stage a match between the two outstanding hurdlers of the moment, argues Timeform jumps handicapper Phil Turner...

Both Hurricane Fly (Timeform rating h174) and Big Buck's (h176+) enhanced their reputations with imperious displays this weekend and, should they retain their respective Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle crowns as expected at the Cheltenham Festival in March, a mouth-watering clash between the pair would surely be what most racing fans would wish for before the season is out.

Indeed, history is littered with examples of how you cannot beat a good head-to-head to broaden interest in a sport. For example, worldwide news bulletins were dominated by chess (yes CHESS!) during the summer of 1972 as the much-anticipated world championship match between maverick young American Bobby Fischer and reigning champion Boris Spassky took place, with the former striking a blow for the Western World at the height of the Cold War as he wrested the title away from the Soviet Union for the first time in twenty-five years.

Some twelve months later, the American public were gripped by another high-profile sports talking point when retired tennis pro Bobby Riggs challenged the two leading female players of the day, Margaret Court and Billie-Jean King, to a "Battle of The Sexes" contest in a chauvinistic attempt to expose the weakness of the women's game. Fifty-five-year-old Riggs defeated Court 6-2 6-1, but then lost to King 4-6 3-6 3-6 in a match which was televised live nationally.

A closer example to any proposed Hurricane Fly-Big Buck's match came in 1997 when the reigning 100m and 200m Olympic champions, Donovan Bailey and Michael Johnson, met in a specially staged 150m race (75m curve and 75m straight) to decide who was the "World's Fastest Man". Unfortunately the race proved to be something of a damp squib, with Johnson pulling up "injured" once clearly held by Bailey.

A similar scenario befell "The Great International Race" at Belmont Park in 1923 between Zev and Papyrus, winners of that year's Kentucky Derby and Epsom Derby respectively, which proved a disappointingly one-sided affair due to the British raider failing to handle the unfamiliar dirt underfoot conditions.

Matches in horse-racing can work, however. An estimated forty million radio listeners tuned in to hear commentary of the "Match of The Century" between Seabiscuit and War Admiral at Pimlico in 1938, the events of which proved the centrepiece of a best-selling book and hit movie early in the 21st Century. Meanwhile, there was also huge interest in National Hunt's finest match to date, which came at the Punchestown Festival in 1986 when Irish racing authorities stumped up the bulk of a sizeable pot to attract a clash between that year's Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Dawn Run and Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Buck House.

Dawn Run won that particular "Battle of The Sexes" despite eschewing her usual mares' allowance to race at level weights and also dropping down to two miles. No such gimmicks would be required for any Hurricane Fly-Big Buck's clash, with the intermediate trip of two-and-a-half miles surely a fair compromise for both. So who would win?

As the ratings imply, Big Buck's would just get our vote, particularly as he looked every bit as good as ever when stretching his unbeaten record to fifteen with a seven-length defeat of Dynaste (h160) at Cheltenham on Saturday. If anything, though, Hurricane Fly was even more impressive when making light of rain-drenched conditions to beat Oscars Well (h164) by a cosy six-and-a-half lengths in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown twenty-four hours later, his performance all the more meritorious given it came after months of rumours and speculation as to his well-being. Perhaps the most pertinent question should any such match materialise is which of the pair would their regular pilot Ruby Walsh choose?

Unfortunately, one clash which won't be taking place (at Cheltenham at least) in the near future is that of Flemenstar (c153p) against the leading British-trained two-mile chasers Al Ferof (c161), Sprinter Sacre (154p), Cue Card (c154) and Peddlers Cross (c150p).

Flemenstar simply hasn't looked back since finishing runner-up to Bog Warrior (c154) on his chasing debut back in the autumn and confirmed himself a top-class prospect with a runaway win in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown on Sunday, but he'll reportedly be kept to Irish soil for the time being due to concerns about him being a bad traveller.

There are no such fears with regards to Boston Bob (h154p), who'll take plenty of beating in either the Neptune Novices' Hurdle or the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham - indeed, Fingal Bay (h156p) is the only novice so far in 2011/12 to have bettered the form Boston Bob showed when winning a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Sunday. He certainly makes more appeal at this stage than Batonnier (h135p), who showed a likeable attitude to win another Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham's Trials Day, yet will need to improve if he's to have place claims at the Festival.

Meanwhile, almost identical comments apply to Saturday's big race winner Midnight Chase (c162), who bounced back to his best to record a fifth Cheltenham success in the Argento Chase, but his two-and-a-quarter length defeat of the quirky Tidal Bay (c160$) is unlikely to have connections of Long Run (c182) or Kauto Star (c181) losing any sleep.

The Alan King-trained Montbazon got back to winning ways at Plumpton on Monday......

Diamond Harry will be checked out for a possible breathing problem after his run at Cheltenham on Saturday......

Henrietta Knight is leaving a decision on Somersby's Cheltenham target until as late as possible because of the unpredictability of the British weather......

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Handicappers' Corner: Age is just a number!

Handicappers' Corner / Phil Turner / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kauto Star claimed a memorable win in the Betfair Chase.

"Kauto Star’s winning rating of 178 is the highest he’s posted for any of his four Haydock wins..."

There is only one place to start from the weekend's racing - Kauto Star rolling back the years to claim a memorable fourth win in the Betfair Chase at Haydock...

Amid all the euphoria which followed that performance, both from ecstatic racegoers at the Merseyside track on Saturday and the verbose response of newspaper sports' columnists, what shouldn't be overlooked is that the field for the 2011 Betfair Chase was arguably the strongest since this valuable prize was launched in 2005. Indeed, Kauto Star's winning rating of 178 is the highest he's posted for any of his four Haydock wins, having run to 170 in 2006 (when admittedly scoring with stacks in hand), 169 in 2007 and 175 in 2009. (For the record, he'd probably have a fifth Betfair Chase win to his name but for unseating at the last in 2008, for which he was awarded a rating of 162).

Of course, Kauto Star's current rating of 178 is still 13lb shy of his peak Timeform figure, which was awarded after his fourth King George VI Chase at Kempton in 2009/10 and is the highest rating awarded to a jumper since the days of Arkle. In addition, Haydock runner-up Long Run still leads the way with us amongst the staying chase division, his rating having been adjusted to 180 (the bare figure he ran to when winning last season's King George) on the back of his reappearance defeat. It seems safe to assume that Nicky Henderson's six-year-old wasn't at his very best on Saturday, a view backed up by the fact he didn't travel with the same fluency as usual (several mid-race mistakes didn't help), but he stuck to his task most willingly and remains the most likely winner of the King George VI Chase in our opinion - he did, after all, beat Kauto Star fair and square at both Kempton and Cheltenham last term.

The next two home at Haydock, Weird Al (168) and Diamond Harry (165), both emerged with credit too, the former running up the form of his Charlie Hall win, whilst the latter gelding ultimately shaped as if the outing was just needed and clearly retains all the ability which saw him land the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on his sole 2010/11 outing. The early signs would seem to suggest that fifth-placed Time For Rupert (162) isn't going to develop into a genuine Cheltenham Gold Cup contender, but he's probably better judged on his reappearance second to Weird Al and would take plenty of beating off a BHA mark of 156 if connections opt to try him in valuable handicap company.

The Betfair Chase wasn't the only prestigious graded race to take place on Saturday, with Master Minded (171) completing a memorable day for his connections by landing a second successive Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot. In truth, Master Minded hasn't just lived in the shadow of his stable-companion Kauto Star in recent years but also his own reputation, notably that runaway win (with a rating of 179) in the 2008 Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham when just a five-year-old. Although Master Minded has won no less than ten times since then - namely seven Grade 1 wins and three Grade 2 wins - but he's never run to a bare figure higher than 171 during that period, which leaves him with a bit to find against Long Run and Kauto Star should he meet them in Kempton's Boxing Day showpiece.

The longer trip isn't certain to suit Master Minded either, and he may even struggle to confirm Ascot placings with old rival Somersby (166), who shaped quite well on Saturday and seems likely to be suited by the step-up to three miles. Medermit (154) seemed to have his limitations exposed in third, which wasn't really the boost in form that supporters of Captain Chris (163p) were hoping for, that gelding having been forced to miss Ascot after working badly earlier in the week.

By contrast, Hurricane Fly (174) saw his reputation grow despite also being forced to sidestep his intended reappearance at the weekend after not pleasing Willie Mullins in his preparatory work. Oscar Whisky (third), Thousand Stars (fourth) and Overturn (seventh) were among those left firmly in Hurricane Fly's wake in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham last March, yet that trio have done plenty for the form since. Overturn (163) and Oscar Whisky (171) were set to stage a grandstand finish to the Ascot Hurdle on Saturday only for the latter gelding (who was conceding 8lb) to crash out at the last, whilst Thousand Stars (163) proved a very capable deputy for stable-companion Hurricane Fly with a convincing defeat of one of last season's leading novice hurdlers Oscars Well (152) in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday.

Dynaste (157+) may be contesting graded races himself over the coming months following his impressive eight-length success in the very valuable betfair.com/paulnicholls Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle at Haydock, a race his stable landed with another up-and-coming grey Grands Crus twelve months earlier. It may be stretching things to think that Dynaste will emulate that gelding by developing into a top-class performer, but it's worth noting that the rating he ran to on Saturday is of a similar standard to that his illustrious stable companion posted in 2010. As usual, this race attracted a healthy quota of runners better known for their exploits over fences nowadays and several shaped well, notably runner-up Benny Be Good (h143/c150) and seventh-placed Sunnyhillboy (h141/c142), who'll both warrant plenty of respect in valuable handicap company if reverted to fences this winter.

Exciting though it was, The Breeders' Cup promised more than it delivered and needs to look to its laurels. Simon Rowlands considers the event from a rating point of view, in a week which also featured the Melbourne Cup and some good jumps action......

Form rather than hype, substance over style, achievement more than potential. That has long been the Timeform mantra, but this weekend's best Flat action provided an exception. Timeform Flat handicapper David Johnson explains....

It's had its knockers but, with Ascot bathed in autumn sunshine and high-quality fields for all five pattern races, few can argue that British Champions Day was anything but a resounding success. David Johnson reflects on the results from a ratings perspective......

Future Champions Day was the highlight of the racing in Europe this weekend, but, with neither the Middle Park nor Dewhurst producing a commanding winner, it's most unlikely that Timeform's Champion two-year-old was in action. We may, however, still have seen a top-class colt, as David Johnson reveals....

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Handicappers' Corner: The July Meeting

Handicappers' Corner / David Johnson / 11 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dream Ahead quickens to win the July Cup

"Dream Ahead...certainly gave the impression there was more to come and his master rating was raised to 129, the highest figure awarded to a July Cup winner since Mozart in 2001."

The July Meeting was backed up by top action at York and Ascot this weekend and there was plenty of quality on show to keep our handicappers busy. David Johnson reflects on how the action has affected the ratings of some of the top performers this week...

There's a well worn phrase in racing relating to Sir Michael Stoute's record with improving older horses, and though not many 6-y-o mares remain in his hands, his handling of Crystal Capella shows there is more than a grain of truth to it.

Crystal Capella has been restricted to just seven outings in the last three years, but when she's made it to the track she's usually made it count, notably so when winning the Princess of Wales's Stakes last week by 8 lengths from Redwood.

In a race where they finished extremely well strung out, and only the third Buthelezi could also be considered to have run to form, Crystal Capella was awarded a rating of 127. This figure, if anything, is a lowish view of the form with race standards giving a range of 127-134 and prior-rating standards pointing to a figure of 130.

This rating promotes Crystal Capella to the head of the ratings for the middle-distance fillies and mares, 1 lb ahead of Midday. There's a strong possibility the pair could clash in the Yorkshire Oaks, and that would be a race to savour.

The feature of the meeting was the July Cup, switched to Saturday for the first time and last year's Middle Park winner Dream Ahead confirmed that 6f is his optimum trip by returning to form to land the spoils. Rated 128 at the end of last year, Dream Ahead didn't quite have to match that, running to 126, the same as runner-up Bated Breath, but certainly gave the impression there was more to come and his master rating was raised to 129, the highest figure awarded to a July Cup winner since Mozart in 2001.

The other Group 1 at the meeting, the Falmouth Stakes, failed to produce such a commanding winner. Tactics played a huge part in the outcome with Timepiece well suited by racing close up in a slowly run race, and it's doubtful that she'd confirm the placing with a few others on a more level playing field.

Even so Timepiece has been credited with a small amount of improvement and is now rated 118, but she remains rated lower than Sahpresa (122), River Jetez (120), Lily of The Valley (124) and Antara (119) who all finished behind her.

Some of the Royal Ascot juvenile form came under the microscope at the meeting too. Frederick Engels showed again what a shrewd acquisition he was by Pearl Bloodstock by adding the July Stakes to his Windsor Castle victory. He earned a performance figure of 110+ for beating Roman Soldier by a length, increasing his master rating to 114, and he's now second only to Bapak Chinta in the list of Timeform's top juveniles.

Gamilati, who was a maiden coming into the race, took a few notable scalps when winning the Cherry Hinton. Her rating of 108 still leaves her behind the below-form third Shumoos, whilst runner-up Russelliana, rated 103p, perhaps has the scope to improve past the pair of them.

The Superlative Stakes looks quite a strong renewal this year with Red Duke and Chandery pulling clear of the rest, and they earned figures of 110p and 107 respectively.

There were also some notable efforts outside of pattern company amongst the juveniles too. Harbour Watch had his field well strung out in the 6f conditions race and was awarded a performance figure of 108+ and a master rating of 111p, and he can be expected to make the step up to pattern company sooner rather than later.

It was off to York form some of the best handicap performances of the week. Green Destiny shrugged a poor effort aside at Royal Ascot to run out a one-sided winner of the John Smith's Cup, earning a rating of 118p. Even with a penalty, he'll look one of the best treated for the totesport Mile at Glorious Goodwood.

Rather lost in all of this was the Summer Mile at Ascot in which Dick Turpin got back to winning way. He recorded a performance figure of 126 in defeating Fanunalter, and his master rating remains unchanged on 127.

If there wasn't enough action in the UK over the weekend, there was also the Man O' War Stakes at Belmont where Cape Blanco got back to winning ways in defeating Gio Ponti. Race standards and prior rating standards suggest Cape Blanco didn't need to improve on his pre-race rating of 124. He has been rated higher than that is in the past, running to 130 in last year's Irish Champion Stakes.

Download a Free Race Card every day in July at timeform.com. Click HERE to register or see the menu.

The Timeform team of handicappers give their verdicts on the top performances of the last week. Simon Rowlands reports......

Simon Rowlands reflects on last week's racing from the perspective of Timeform's handicappers......

Aidan O'Brien's double, Society Rock's winning run and a fine victory for the well-backed Deacon Blues are analysed here by David Johnson after the final day at Royal Ascot....

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Handicappers' Corner: Frankel set to prove himself a true great

Timeform Features / Simon Rowlands / 02 May 2011 / 1 Comments

Frankel left them all trailing in the 2000 Guineas

"Frankel appeared to be posting 11-second or near-11-second furlong sectionals mid-race, something more likely to be seen in a top sprint."

Timeform's Head of Handicapping, Simon Rowlands, explains how time and form combine to show that Frankel is as good as he looked in the 2000 Guineas...

What else can there be to concentrate on in this Handicappers' Corner than Frankel? Just in case you missed it, the Henry Cecil-trained colt won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday in unforgettable style to extend his unbeaten run to six.

He was sent off the shortest-priced favourite in the race since 1974 and won by the widest margin - six lengths - since Tudor Minstrel won by eight in 1947. Frankel's combined winning margins now stand at 35¾ lengths.

It was not just Frankel's winning margin that was remarkable in the first British classic of 2011: there was an astonishing 17½ lengths back to the fourth, 26 lengths back to the seventh and nearly a furlong back to the last in the field of 13. Top jumps races are not often won in such a fashion, let alone top Flat races at just a mile and on ground on the fast side of good.

It is not necessary to understand ratings to appreciate such special occasions. But ratings are a way of measuring the worth of performances in a wider historical context, and events like Saturday's test not just the participants but the methods that handicappers use.

As stated previously, the idea that you should pick a horse which has "run to form" and base your entire assessment of a race around that - so-called yardstick handicapping - is dubious at the best of times and is especially flawed when dealing with unexposed horses still short of maturity.

It is also patently wrong to apply the same pounds-per-length allowances to all races at a given distance regardless of the circumstances. And, yet, such handicapping-by-convenience continues to be peddled in some quarters.

At Timeform we use a suite of handicapping tools (click HERE to find out more about how we do things) to assist in coming up with ratings. These include race standardisation - whereby the likely strength of a race is established from precedent, after adjustment for time, conditions, field size, margins between horses and so on - prior-rating standardisation and time analysis.

Each of these measures independently pointed to Frankel's winning performance being worthy of a figure in the mid-to-high 130s on the bare result: a bare-form 137 falls well within the range of likely figures.

But 'the bare result' does not always tell the whole story, including, arguably, here. Frankel went off in front and ran his rivals ragged. By halfway, he was at least 10 lengths clear of the main pack, most of whom were hard at work while he was still travelling within himself. It was only late in the day that he looked like winning by anything other than a record margin.

Sectional analysis would have helped greatly in measuring the merit of how Frankel went about winning the 2000 Guineas, and not just that he did. But British racing does not have official sectionals, and the falseness of this economy becomes especially apparent on occasions like this.

Nonetheless, it is possible to establish that Frankel got to halfway in about 47.5 sec (after response delay and parallax error is accounted for). That is significantly faster than the Guineas for which we have electronic sectionals, including ones run under quicker conditions than this year's. Frankel appeared to be posting 11-second or near-11-second furlong sectionals mid-race, something more likely to be seen in a top sprint.

Frankel gave a substantial beating to the placed horses Dubawi Gold (rated 121, just below the standard for a Guineas runner-up) and Native Khan (rated 120, just above par for a third), but the likelihood is that it could have been even more. The extra two lengths (5 lb) that Timeform's race reporter added is conservative but takes the colt's rating up to 142.

By comparison, the aforementioned Tudor Minstrel earned a rating of 144 at his best, as did Brigadier Gerard, winner of the Guineas in 1971. Sea The Stars and Harbinger were both rated 140 - at longer distances - in recent years. No horse had run to higher than 130 in the Guineas since Dancing Brave in 1986.

Frankel's 142 rating will be tested by his performances, and by the performances of those he beat pointless at Newmarket, through the rest of the year. In that sense it is 'provisional', but it is a rating that we at Timeform are happy to stand by given the evidence available at this stage. That evidence includes an outstanding final time, translating to a timefigure of 136.

Only very good horses can run times like that. Surely only a true great could run one having gone so fast so early.

Timeform look back over the weekend's classic action at Newmarket......

The five-day Punchestown Festival kicks off on Tuesday and Timeform's Simon Baker is on hand to take you through what's in store.......

There's plenty in store in the coming week, kicking off with Sunday's 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and also including the Chester May meeting and the Punchestown Festival.......

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Handicappers' Corner: End-of-season Jumps report 2010/11

Timeform Features / Timeform / 23 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Long Run has the potential to stay at the top for a long time

"Long Run’s end-of-season Timeform rating of 184 places him behind only the legendary Desert Orchid and an on-song Kauto Star in the modern era of jumpers."

Timeform look back over the 2010/11 jumps season, picking out the highlights and rounding up the end-of-season ratings for the top performers...

Saturday's mixed meeting at Sandown officially brought down the curtain on the 2010/11 jumps season in Britain, though there are significant races still to take place in Ireland and France.

The end-of-term report on the sport's performance is also mixed, with its participants currently having to consider how it is perceived by the wider public in the aftermath of a large number of equine fatalities and serious injuries to jockeys.

In terms of elite performance, however, 2010/11 was another fine season, one which lends support to the notion that jumping is enjoying a 'Golden Age'. Kauto Star (rated 191 at his best, in 2009/10) would be a match for any chaser in the post-Arkle era, while Imperial Commander and Denman (182 and 181 respectively in the same season) were within hailing distance of that horse.

All three horses contested the latest Cheltenham Gold Cup - a vintage affair which lived up to its billing at a vintage Festival - and were beaten fair and square by the hugely talented youngster Long Run.

Kauto Star seems now to be on the wane, Denman may not quite be the force he once was, and Imperial Commander ran as if amiss, but Long Run's end-of-season Timeform rating of 184 places him behind only the legendary Desert Orchid and an on-song Kauto Star in the modern era of jumpers.

Another star of recent seasons, Master Minded (rated 179 at his best), also posted his most convincing performance for some time when an easy winner at Aintree.

Timeform's chase handicapper Gregg Taylor said "This year's Gold Cup was one of the best races seen in a long time, two of the best staying chasers in recent seasons going down valiantly to the rising star of the division. Master Minded coming almost right back to his best added further spice to an excellent season".

Leading chasers on Timeform ratings 2010/11

LONG RUN 184
DENMAN 177
MASTER MINDED 175+
SIZING EUROPE 171
IMPERIAL COMMANDER 170+

The hurdlers have been in the shadow of the chasers for some time now with one very notable exception. Big Buck's is unbeaten in 12 runs at around three miles since being switched back to the smaller obstacles, and he was imperious in his defeat of the top-class Grands Crus at Cheltenham and especially at Aintree in the latest campaign.

At eight years old, Big Buck's could be at his peak for a while yet. He has a realistic chance of equalling the Timeform rating of Istabraq (180 in 2000/1) or even surpassing it. Night Nurse (rated 182 in 1976/7) is Timeform's highest-rated hurdler in history. The problem where Big Buck's is concerned is that there have not been rivals around good enough to test him to the full!

The two-mile hurdlers have not got close to Istabraq's level of achievements in the years since, but Hurricane Fly (rated 168) was a better-than-average Champion Hurdle winner by recent standards. He was undefeated in four starts and posted the same rating as had Binocular in victory the year before.

Timeform's hurdles handicapper Matt Taylor said: "Big Buck's has been in a league of his own among staying hurdlers in the last few years and is one of the best over timber in Timeform's long history. What's more, he seems bombproof!"

Leading hurdlers on Timeform ratings 2010/11

BIG BUCK'S 176+
GRANDS CRUS 171
HURRICANE FLY 168
PEDDLERS CROSS 166

Each generation of stars has to contend not just with each other but with the challenges of the next generation. Hurricane Fly himself was the top novice hurdler on Timeform ratings in 2008/9: that honour goes to Al Ferof (rated 158) this time round. Binocular was the leading juvenile hurdler in 2007/8: Zarkandar (rated 152p) holds that distinction now. Denman was top novice chaser way back in 2006/7: Captain Chris and Time For Rupert share that title on 156p for 2010/11.

The definitive historical ratings for these horses (and for thousands of others) will appear in Timeform's Chasers & Hurdlers 2010/11, published later in the year.

Timeform look forward to what is in store in a very busy build-up to Guineas weekend.....

The National Hunt season comes to a close on Saturday, when Paul Nicholls will be crowned Champion Trainer for the sixth consecutive season, but it starts all over again on Sunday and there is also plenty to go at on the Flat across the two days....

The Timeform Radio big guns come out for the big one with Paul Jacobs asking Kentucky Derby-related questions of TVG presenter and handicapper Rich Perloff, Timeform's head of handicapping for North America Simon Rowlands and Timeform's North American correspondent James Willoughby. And if that lot can't find you the winner, nobody can!...

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Handicappers' Corner: Frankel bang on track for Newmarket

Handicappers' Corner / David Johnson / 21 April 2011 / 2 Comments

Frankel stretches clear in the Greenham

"Frankel may not even have to run better than he seemed to at Newbury to win at Newmarket on April 30, and it would take a quite outstanding Guineas winner to top the best he has already achieved."

The first Classics of the year are less than a fortnight away, and the last week has seen the last of the major trials. It is a case of "as you were", with the colts' classic remaining at the mercy of one horse, while the 1,000 Guineas still looks as open as ever. David Johnson gives the Timeform view of how things currently stand.

Frankel stretched his unbeaten run to five in the Greenham without having to reproduce the best of his two-year-old form. He has been credited with a performance figure of 127 for beating Excelebration (115) by four lengths with a further six lengths back to Shropshire (97).

This is in the middle of the range of likely ratings prompted by race and prior-rating standards, below the 129 that might be expected from a particularly strong 2010 edition - which saw subsequent Group 1 winners Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs come clear - but above the 123 and 120 resulting from the slightly weaker renewals won by Vocalised in 2009 and Paco Boy in 2008.

The overall time of this year's Greenham looks unexceptional and is unlikely to provide many further clues as to Frankel's merit. The early pace was steady and a number of the runners (including Frankel himself) took a while to settle.

Frankel's Timeform master rating is likely to remain unchanged on 133p. With regards to his chance in the 2000 Guineas, the last five renewals (with the most recent first) have produced the following ratings from the winners: 124/128/124/125/129.

In other words, Frankel may not even have to run better than he seemed to at Newbury to win at Newmarket on April 30, and it would take a quite outstanding Guineas winner to top the best he has already achieved.

The Craven used to be one of the pre-eminent Guineas trials, but it hasn't produced the winner since Haafhd took both races in 2004. Native Khan's rating was raised to 114p on the back of his smooth two-length victory over Libranno in this year's Craven. He came up short at the top level in the Racing Post Trophy last autumn, though, and it's likely to be the same story in the Guineas.

The major fillies' trials in the last week have merely muddied the waters with regards to the 1000 Guineas. Neither Barefoot Lady (110) - successful in the Nell Gwyn - nor Rimth (109) - who took the Fred Darling - is entered at Newmarket.

What those two races did do, however, is confirm the strength of Hooray's Cheveley Park win. She had Rimth four and a half lengths behind in second that day, with Nell Gwyn third Maqaasid a further length and a quarter back in third.

Hooray's rating of 121 for that win is 5 lb above the average achieved by the winner of the 1000 Guineas over the last five seasons. However, there remain doubts over Hooray's stamina for the May 1 classic, while her trainer Sir Mark Prescott has also reported that she's been slow to come to hand.

A filly that enhanced her Guineas claims recently is Moonlight Cloud, who won the Prix Imprudence at Maisons Laffitte on April 7 by two lengths from Helleborine. In what was an above-average renewal, Moonlight Cloud earned a figure of 112p. Although she had the advantage of dictating, she was well on top at the finish.

One other classic aspirant well worth a mention is the Henry Cecil-trained World Domination. Out of the Oaks winner Reams of Verse, he came with a big reputation and could not have made a much better start than when beating stable-mate Solar Sky by three and three quarter lengths in a Newbury maiden over eleven furlongs. He earned a figure of 100P, which is high for a debutant, and is well worth his place in a Derby trial.

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor looks back on the latest running of the Aintree showpiece, as well as reflecting on the ratings of the other big-race winners from the meeting.......

With the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals just around the corner, Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor reflects on three races from Kempton at the weekend that are likely to have an impact on both meetings......

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the highlights from Newbury's rescheduled totesport Trophy meeting at Newbury on Friday, as well as looking back on Saturday's Ascot Chase....

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Handicappers' Corner: Frankel bang on track for Newmarket

Handicappers' Corner / David Johnson / 18 April 2011 / 1 Comments

Frankel stretches clear in the Greenham

"Frankel may not even have to run better than he seemed to at Newbury to win at Newmarket on April 30, and it would take a quite outstanding Guineas winner to top the best he has already achieved."

The Guineas is less than a fortnight away, and the last week has seen the last of the major trials. It is a case of "as you were", with the colts' classic remaining at the mercy of one horse, while the 1000 Guineas still looks as open as ever. David Johnson gives the Timeform view of how things currently stand.

Frankel stretched his unbeaten run to five in the Greenham without having to reproduce the best of his two-year-old form. He has been credited with a performance figure of 127 for beating Excelebration (115) by four lengths with a further six lengths back to Shropshire (97).

This is in the middle of the range of likely ratings prompted by race and prior-rating standards, below the 129 that might be expected from a particularly strong 2010 edition - which saw subsequent Group 1 winners Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs come clear - but above the 123 and 120 resulting from the slightly weaker renewals won by Vocalised in 2009 and Paco Boy in 2008.

The overall time of this year's Greenham looks unexceptional and is unlikely to provide many further clues as to Frankel's merit. The early pace was steady and a number of the runners (including Frankel himself) took a while to settle.

Frankel's Timeform master rating is likely to remain unchanged on 133p. With regards to his chance in the 2000 Guineas, the last five renewals (with the most recent first) have produced the following ratings from the winners: 124/128/124/125/129.

In other words, Frankel may not even have to run better than he seemed to at Newbury to win at Newmarket on April 30, and it would take a quite outstanding Guineas winner to top the best he has already achieved.

The Craven used to be one of the pre-eminent Guineas trials, but it hasn't produced the winner since Haafhd took both races in 2004. Native Khan's rating was raised to 114p on the back of his smooth two-length victory over Libranno in this year's Craven. He came up short at the top level in the Racing Post Trophy last autumn, though, and it's likely to be the same story in the Guineas.

The major fillies' trials in the last week have merely muddied the waters with regards to the 1000 Guineas. Neither Barefoot Lady (110) - successful in the Nell Gwyn - nor Rimth (109) - who took the Fred Darling - is entered at Newmarket.

What those two races did do, however, is confirm the strength of Hooray's Cheveley Park win. She had Rimth four and a half lengths behind in second that day, with Nell Gwyn third Maqaasid a further length and a quarter back in third.

Hooray's rating of 121 for that win is 5 lb above the average achieved by the winner of the 1000 Guineas over the last five seasons. However, there remain doubts over Hooray's stamina for the May 1 classic, while her trainer Sir Mark Prescott has also reported that she's been slow to come to hand.

A filly that enhanced her Guineas claims recently is Moonlight Cloud, who won the Prix Imprudence at Maisons Laffitte on April 7 by two lengths from Helleborine. In what was an above-average renewal, Moonlight Cloud earned a figure of 112p. Although she had the advantage of dictating, she was well on top at the finish.

One other classic aspirant well worth a mention is the Henry Cecil-trained World Domination. Out of the Oaks winner Reams of Verse, he came with a big reputation and could not have made a much better start than when beating stable-mate Solar Sky by three and three quarter lengths in a Newbury maiden over eleven furlongs. He earned a figure of 100P, which is high for a debutant, and is well worth his place in a Derby trial.

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor looks back on the latest running of the Aintree showpiece, as well as reflecting on the ratings of the other big-race winners from the meeting.......

With the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals just around the corner, Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor reflects on three races from Kempton at the weekend that are likely to have an impact on both meetings......

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the highlights from Newbury's rescheduled totesport Trophy meeting at Newbury on Friday, as well as looking back on Saturday's Ascot Chase....

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