Irish Derby Betting: Back Seville to get back on track

Ante-post / Phil Thompson / 23 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Carlton House and Seville fight out the finish of the Dante

"Seville...will be much more at home at the Curragh, and current odds of [6.2] look fair."

Hot on the heels of Royal Ascot the Flat racing bandwagon rolls on with the latest renewal of the Irish Derby at the Curragh on Sunday. Phil Thompson casts his eye over the likely runners...

Balanchine in 1994 was the last British-trained winner of the race, but hopes are high that run can be ended, with Sir Michael Stoute's Carlton House the current market leader, trading at [2.50] at the time of writing. The Dante winner managed only third at Epsom in the English equivalent after sent off favourite but it was a highly promising effort all the same, the way he quickened three furlongs out the most impressive move of any horse throughout the course of the race, and with hindsight the run may have proved more effective if it had been delivered slightly later. It's well documented that Carlton House did not enjoy the perfect preparation for Epsom (suffered filling in near-fore the week before) and he also lost his off-fore shoe inside the final furlong as his effort flattened out, so an even better showing on Sunday is on the cards, with the only slight doubt being that he is a free-going sort who may not be suited if the race turns into a real test of stamina - the ground is currently described as good to yielding but is expected to ride quicker come the day.

Aidan O'Brien has farmed this race in recent years, saddling the last five winners no less, and he looks set to be mob handed again with four of the nine entries. Based on market position his main contender looks likely to be Treasure Beach who is currently priced at [4.8] on Betfair on the back of his excellent head second to Pour Moi at Epsom (¾ length in front of Carlton House), and it's worth noting that the form of his win in the Chester Vase prior to that was franked by Nathaniel last week. However, there are many within Timeform that suspect Treasure Beach got the run of the race at Epsom (always close up) and for all that he is clearly very capable, it's likely that Carlton House will reverse the form this time around.

The Irish 2000 Guineas winner Roderic O'Connor will be running in his fourth Classic in a row as he bids for a famous double. However, his victory in the Irish 2000 came in a sub-standard renewal, and that he was very disappointing in the Prix Du Jockey Club last time, when racing over further than a mile for the first time, raises big doubts regarding his stamina for this still longer trip. Taking all that into account, he does not rate much value at [16.0].

Perhaps, the most interesting contender from Ballydoyle is Seville. Runner-up in the Racing Post Trophy last year, he shaped well when only one and a half lengths behind Carlton House in the Dante at York on his seasonal return, looking as if the step up to a mile and a half would be in his favour, and his subsequent flop in the Derby can be overlooked, patently failing to handle the course. He will be much more at home at the Curragh, and current odds of [6.4] look fair.

Memphis Tennessee is the other O'Brien-trained entry and is currently trading at [18.0]. Although performing admirably when fourth at Epsom, there is reason to believe that he will once again be used as a pacemaker, and although clearly a smart colt, it will be a surprise if he is good enough to win, even granted this is not a strong renewal.

Native Khan is the other British raider in the line-up and is a versatile and consistent sort, as emphasized by his third in the English 2000 Guineas and fifth in the Derby. Despite those admirable efforts, however, there is a slight concern that he falls just short of what is required at the top level, and he could be one more for the place market (currently trading at [8.8] for a win).

The other three contenders will have their work cut out to get involved, Dunboyne Express ([30.0]), is a smart colt but would need to improve markedly to trouble the principals, whilst Best Hello ([110.0]) and Notable Graduate ([32.0]) have shown only useful form so far and look to be flying too high.

Although Carlton House is a worthy favourite and looks the most likely winner, the slight question regarding his stamina is enough for me to take him on at the current prices. Seville has finished behind the favourite on both starts this season, but he had excuses at Epsom and his run in the Dante suggested that he would relish the step up to a mile and a half, and he looks the value at [6.4].

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Back Seville @ [6.4] in the Irish Derby at the Curragh

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Handicappers' Corner: Frankel bang on track for Newmarket

Handicappers' Corner / David Johnson / 21 April 2011 / 2 Comments

Frankel stretches clear in the Greenham

"Frankel may not even have to run better than he seemed to at Newbury to win at Newmarket on April 30, and it would take a quite outstanding Guineas winner to top the best he has already achieved."

The first Classics of the year are less than a fortnight away, and the last week has seen the last of the major trials. It is a case of "as you were", with the colts' classic remaining at the mercy of one horse, while the 1,000 Guineas still looks as open as ever. David Johnson gives the Timeform view of how things currently stand.

Frankel stretched his unbeaten run to five in the Greenham without having to reproduce the best of his two-year-old form. He has been credited with a performance figure of 127 for beating Excelebration (115) by four lengths with a further six lengths back to Shropshire (97).

This is in the middle of the range of likely ratings prompted by race and prior-rating standards, below the 129 that might be expected from a particularly strong 2010 edition - which saw subsequent Group 1 winners Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs come clear - but above the 123 and 120 resulting from the slightly weaker renewals won by Vocalised in 2009 and Paco Boy in 2008.

The overall time of this year's Greenham looks unexceptional and is unlikely to provide many further clues as to Frankel's merit. The early pace was steady and a number of the runners (including Frankel himself) took a while to settle.

Frankel's Timeform master rating is likely to remain unchanged on 133p. With regards to his chance in the 2000 Guineas, the last five renewals (with the most recent first) have produced the following ratings from the winners: 124/128/124/125/129.

In other words, Frankel may not even have to run better than he seemed to at Newbury to win at Newmarket on April 30, and it would take a quite outstanding Guineas winner to top the best he has already achieved.

The Craven used to be one of the pre-eminent Guineas trials, but it hasn't produced the winner since Haafhd took both races in 2004. Native Khan's rating was raised to 114p on the back of his smooth two-length victory over Libranno in this year's Craven. He came up short at the top level in the Racing Post Trophy last autumn, though, and it's likely to be the same story in the Guineas.

The major fillies' trials in the last week have merely muddied the waters with regards to the 1000 Guineas. Neither Barefoot Lady (110) - successful in the Nell Gwyn - nor Rimth (109) - who took the Fred Darling - is entered at Newmarket.

What those two races did do, however, is confirm the strength of Hooray's Cheveley Park win. She had Rimth four and a half lengths behind in second that day, with Nell Gwyn third Maqaasid a further length and a quarter back in third.

Hooray's rating of 121 for that win is 5 lb above the average achieved by the winner of the 1000 Guineas over the last five seasons. However, there remain doubts over Hooray's stamina for the May 1 classic, while her trainer Sir Mark Prescott has also reported that she's been slow to come to hand.

A filly that enhanced her Guineas claims recently is Moonlight Cloud, who won the Prix Imprudence at Maisons Laffitte on April 7 by two lengths from Helleborine. In what was an above-average renewal, Moonlight Cloud earned a figure of 112p. Although she had the advantage of dictating, she was well on top at the finish.

One other classic aspirant well worth a mention is the Henry Cecil-trained World Domination. Out of the Oaks winner Reams of Verse, he came with a big reputation and could not have made a much better start than when beating stable-mate Solar Sky by three and three quarter lengths in a Newbury maiden over eleven furlongs. He earned a figure of 100P, which is high for a debutant, and is well worth his place in a Derby trial.

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Handicappers' Corner: Frankel bang on track for Newmarket

Handicappers' Corner / David Johnson / 18 April 2011 / 1 Comments

Frankel stretches clear in the Greenham

"Frankel may not even have to run better than he seemed to at Newbury to win at Newmarket on April 30, and it would take a quite outstanding Guineas winner to top the best he has already achieved."

The Guineas is less than a fortnight away, and the last week has seen the last of the major trials. It is a case of "as you were", with the colts' classic remaining at the mercy of one horse, while the 1000 Guineas still looks as open as ever. David Johnson gives the Timeform view of how things currently stand.

Frankel stretched his unbeaten run to five in the Greenham without having to reproduce the best of his two-year-old form. He has been credited with a performance figure of 127 for beating Excelebration (115) by four lengths with a further six lengths back to Shropshire (97).

This is in the middle of the range of likely ratings prompted by race and prior-rating standards, below the 129 that might be expected from a particularly strong 2010 edition - which saw subsequent Group 1 winners Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs come clear - but above the 123 and 120 resulting from the slightly weaker renewals won by Vocalised in 2009 and Paco Boy in 2008.

The overall time of this year's Greenham looks unexceptional and is unlikely to provide many further clues as to Frankel's merit. The early pace was steady and a number of the runners (including Frankel himself) took a while to settle.

Frankel's Timeform master rating is likely to remain unchanged on 133p. With regards to his chance in the 2000 Guineas, the last five renewals (with the most recent first) have produced the following ratings from the winners: 124/128/124/125/129.

In other words, Frankel may not even have to run better than he seemed to at Newbury to win at Newmarket on April 30, and it would take a quite outstanding Guineas winner to top the best he has already achieved.

The Craven used to be one of the pre-eminent Guineas trials, but it hasn't produced the winner since Haafhd took both races in 2004. Native Khan's rating was raised to 114p on the back of his smooth two-length victory over Libranno in this year's Craven. He came up short at the top level in the Racing Post Trophy last autumn, though, and it's likely to be the same story in the Guineas.

The major fillies' trials in the last week have merely muddied the waters with regards to the 1000 Guineas. Neither Barefoot Lady (110) - successful in the Nell Gwyn - nor Rimth (109) - who took the Fred Darling - is entered at Newmarket.

What those two races did do, however, is confirm the strength of Hooray's Cheveley Park win. She had Rimth four and a half lengths behind in second that day, with Nell Gwyn third Maqaasid a further length and a quarter back in third.

Hooray's rating of 121 for that win is 5 lb above the average achieved by the winner of the 1000 Guineas over the last five seasons. However, there remain doubts over Hooray's stamina for the May 1 classic, while her trainer Sir Mark Prescott has also reported that she's been slow to come to hand.

A filly that enhanced her Guineas claims recently is Moonlight Cloud, who won the Prix Imprudence at Maisons Laffitte on April 7 by two lengths from Helleborine. In what was an above-average renewal, Moonlight Cloud earned a figure of 112p. Although she had the advantage of dictating, she was well on top at the finish.

One other classic aspirant well worth a mention is the Henry Cecil-trained World Domination. Out of the Oaks winner Reams of Verse, he came with a big reputation and could not have made a much better start than when beating stable-mate Solar Sky by three and three quarter lengths in a Newbury maiden over eleven furlongs. He earned a figure of 100P, which is high for a debutant, and is well worth his place in a Derby trial.

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