Ante-post 
/ Phil Thompson / 23 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Carlton House and Seville fight out the finish of the Dante
"Seville...will be much more at home at the Curragh, and current odds of [6.2] look fair."
Hot on the heels of Royal Ascot the Flat racing bandwagon rolls on with the latest renewal of the Irish Derby at the Curragh on Sunday. Phil Thompson casts his eye over the likely runners...
Balanchine in 1994 was the last British-trained winner of the race, but hopes are high that run can be ended, with Sir Michael Stoute's Carlton House the current market leader, trading at [2.50] at the time of writing. The Dante winner managed only third at Epsom in the English equivalent after sent off favourite but it was a highly promising effort all the same, the way he quickened three furlongs out the most impressive move of any horse throughout the course of the race, and with hindsight the run may have proved more effective if it had been delivered slightly later. It's well documented that Carlton House did not enjoy the perfect preparation for Epsom (suffered filling in near-fore the week before) and he also lost his off-fore shoe inside the final furlong as his effort flattened out, so an even better showing on Sunday is on the cards, with the only slight doubt being that he is a free-going sort who may not be suited if the race turns into a real test of stamina - the ground is currently described as good to yielding but is expected to ride quicker come the day.
Aidan O'Brien has farmed this race in recent years, saddling the last five winners no less, and he looks set to be mob handed again with four of the nine entries. Based on market position his main contender looks likely to be Treasure Beach who is currently priced at [4.8] on Betfair on the back of his excellent head second to Pour Moi at Epsom (¾ length in front of Carlton House), and it's worth noting that the form of his win in the Chester Vase prior to that was franked by Nathaniel last week. However, there are many within Timeform that suspect Treasure Beach got the run of the race at Epsom (always close up) and for all that he is clearly very capable, it's likely that Carlton House will reverse the form this time around.
The Irish 2000 Guineas winner Roderic O'Connor will be running in his fourth Classic in a row as he bids for a famous double. However, his victory in the Irish 2000 came in a sub-standard renewal, and that he was very disappointing in the Prix Du Jockey Club last time, when racing over further than a mile for the first time, raises big doubts regarding his stamina for this still longer trip. Taking all that into account, he does not rate much value at [16.0].
Perhaps, the most interesting contender from Ballydoyle is Seville. Runner-up in the Racing Post Trophy last year, he shaped well when only one and a half lengths behind Carlton House in the Dante at York on his seasonal return, looking as if the step up to a mile and a half would be in his favour, and his subsequent flop in the Derby can be overlooked, patently failing to handle the course. He will be much more at home at the Curragh, and current odds of [6.4] look fair.
Memphis Tennessee is the other O'Brien-trained entry and is currently trading at [18.0]. Although performing admirably when fourth at Epsom, there is reason to believe that he will once again be used as a pacemaker, and although clearly a smart colt, it will be a surprise if he is good enough to win, even granted this is not a strong renewal.
Native Khan is the other British raider in the line-up and is a versatile and consistent sort, as emphasized by his third in the English 2000 Guineas and fifth in the Derby. Despite those admirable efforts, however, there is a slight concern that he falls just short of what is required at the top level, and he could be one more for the place market (currently trading at [8.8] for a win).
The other three contenders will have their work cut out to get involved, Dunboyne Express ([30.0]), is a smart colt but would need to improve markedly to trouble the principals, whilst Best Hello ([110.0]) and Notable Graduate ([32.0]) have shown only useful form so far and look to be flying too high.
Although Carlton House is a worthy favourite and looks the most likely winner, the slight question regarding his stamina is enough for me to take him on at the current prices. Seville has finished behind the favourite on both starts this season, but he had excuses at Epsom and his run in the Dante suggested that he would relish the step up to a mile and a half, and he looks the value at [6.4].
Recommendations
Back Seville @ [6.4] in the Irish Derby at the Curragh
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