Timeform Debate 
/ Phil Turner / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Ballabriggs returned at Kelso
"Bar an uncharacteristic blunder at the eleventh, Ballabriggs both travelled and jumped with typical fluency..."
Although racing has entered its usual quiet storm before next week's Cheltenham Festival, several leading Grand National hopefuls have been flexing their muscles in recent days, so jumps handicapper Phil Turner casts his eye over the latest picture for the Aintree showpiece....
Chief amongst those seen out last weekend was, of course, the 2011 hero Ballabriggs (Timeform rating c159), who again warmed up for Aintree by tackling the Kelso Premier Chase over two and three-quarter miles on Saturday. Although Ballabriggs finished two places worse off than when runner-up in the 2011 renewal, his fourth to Master of The Hall (c155) actually represents the same form he'd shown on that final prep run prior to Aintree glory.
Indeed, trainer Donald McCain reported himself happy with the comeback run and understandably so, given the gelding ultimately shaped as if the outing was just needed. Bar an uncharacteristic blunder at the eleventh, Ballabriggs both travelled and jumped with typical fluency before edging ahead on the long run-in until his lack of a recent run told late on. He'll clearly come on for the outing, though the fact remains that he's been allotted a stiff task by the BHA handicapper in his bid to become the first back-to-back National winner since Red Rum in 1974 and, as such, others make more appeal in the ante-post market.
Similar comments apply to Kelso runner-up According To Pete (c148), who stuck to his task well over an inadequate trip on Saturday but still looks plenty high enough in the weights now following earlier heroics this winter. Third-placed Abbeybraney (c137) also holds a Grand National entry, but he'll struggle to get a run in the big race (currently 9 lb out of the weights), whilst there must be a chance he'll prove slightly flattered by his Kelso effort.
Elsewhere on Saturday, long-standing National fancy Junior (c158) was in action in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster, which was also the prep race that the McCain stable used for Amberleigh House prior to his 2004 Aintree victory. Junior certainly shaped a good deal more convincingly than on his comeback run over hurdles, failing by just a short head to defeat the well-treated Ikorodu Road (c136) having been hampered slightly by last-fence faller Pentiffic (c132), which shows he's clearly not handicapped out of things off a 19 lb higher mark than when running out a wide-margin winner of last season's Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival.
Although there were plenty of positives to be gleaned from a form viewpoint after Saturday's narrow second, the fact Junior had a harder race than ideal tempers enthusiasm for his Aintree prospects somewhat, whilst his tendency to neither travel or jump with complete fluency would also be a concern with regards to a well-run National.
The latter point certainly isn't an issue with Niche Market (c151), who cut a bold sight up with the pace when finishing a gallant fifth in the 2011 edition of the Aintree showpiece, whilst he also shaped well over those unique fences when runner-up to West End Rocker (who missed the Grimthorpe due to ground concerns) in the Becher Chase there in early-December. Admittedly, the eleven-year-old Niche Market is still without a win since the 2009 Irish National, but he's crept back down to an attractive mark and emerged with plenty of credit when runner-up to the lightly-weighted Marufo (c129) in a veterans' event at Newbury on Saturday, particularly as the pair pulled 24 lengths clear of the remainder.
Niche Market seems sure to give his supporters another good run for their money at Aintree but, in truth, he still looks up against it at the weights in relation to Prince de Beauchene (c164), who heads our ratings by some margin on the back of his impressive return to action in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse late last month.
Adjusted Timeform ratings for Grand National:
Prince de Beauchene 193
Weird Al 184
Niche Market 181
Burton Port 180
Quantitativeeasing 180
Giles Cross 178
Neptune Collonges 178
Hold On Julio 177p
Cappa Bleu 177+
Junior 177
Massini's Maguire 177
Scotsirish 177
Synchronised 177
Seabass 176
Treacle 176
(Selected others: According To Pete 171, Ballabriggs 171 and West End Rocker 171)
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