Handicappers' Corner: Lockinge proves Farhh too easy

"An analysis of the overall time backs up the view that Farhh put up a top-class effort, recording a timefigure of 131..."

An excellent week of racing, York's Dante meeting a precursor to Group 1 action at Newbury, and there's plenty to reflect upon. David Johnson goes into greater detail...

Any fears that the mile division for older horses might be rather short of the usual quality were quickly allayed shortly after 15:50 on Saturday as the Saeed bin Suroor-trained Farhh ran away with the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. 

The perennial bridesmaid last year, there was no doubting that Farhh was Group 1 standard - he was top-rated on Saturday with a rating good enough to have won three of the last five renewals of the race, but given the nature that he won, and the margins involved, it's Timeform's view that Farhh has come back an improved performer, earning a new Timeform rating of 132.

Although a shade keen in the early stages, Farhh was travelling best from a long way out and never looked in any danger after going on around 2f out, still strong at the finish as he pulled four lengths clear of Sovereign Debt. Both the runner-up, and third Aljamaaheer have also been credited with personal bests, both running to 121.

Historical race standards give a range of 127-141 for the winner, whilst prior-ratings standards point to a figure in the low 130s. 

Since the Lockinge was upgraded to Group 1 status in 1995, only Frankel (144+) in 2012 and Hawk Wing (136) in 2003 have put up higher-rated winning performances, whilst Keltos in 2002 also ran to 132.  

An analysis of the overall time backs up the view that Farhh put up a top-class effort, recording a timefigure of 131. 

In terms of final time analysis, only Workforce (Derby), Harbinger (King George) and Frankel (Guineas, Lockinge, Juddmonte, Champion Stakes) have recorded superior timefigures in the last four seasons.

A rating of 132 sees Farhh as the one to beat in both the Queen Anne (Animal Kingdom is currently rated 128) and Prince of Wales's Stakes, and whilst the Lockinge was Farhh's first success at the top level, it will be surprising if it's his last.

Earlier on the Newbury card, Willing Foe provided Godolphin with the first leg of a double in the Aston Park Stakes. This listed race has a habit of unearthing genuine Group-class performers and it seems the case again as Willing Foe earned a figure of 120 for his wide-margin win over Harris Tweed. 

Whether Willing Foe proves effective over the two and a half miles of the Gold Cup or not, he's certainly worth aiming at other Cup races, his rating higher than those awarded to Glen's Diamond (116) and Top Trip (118) for pulling clear in the Yorkshire Cup the previous afternoon.

If the Yorkshire Cup wasn't a vintage renewal, there is perhaps a feeling that was also the case with York's major classic trials, the Musidora and the Dante.

The Musidora attracted a typically small field, but one that was weaker than usual, and it went to the highly-touted Liber Nauticus. Rated 101P prior to the race, Liber Nauticus kept her unbeaten record and moves on to 109p.

Liber Nauticus will be suited by the step up to a mile and half, whilst she still looked green at York, but perhaps Secret Gesture and Moth have stronger Oaks credentials at present.

The Dante lost a lot of significance after Telescope wasn't declared following a late setback, and it certainly had the feel of a substandard renewal, just over four lengths covering the first five home.

Standards suggested a range of 113-122 for the winner and Libertarian's figure of 114 is the joint-lowest this century, alongside Black Bear Island (2009) and Magistretti (2003).

The highest-rating earned at York was that by Society Rock who defied his Group 1 penalty to go two places better than in the previous year's Duke of York Stakes. Confirming his 126 rating, he looks the strongest of the home contenders for the Diamond Jubilee, a race in which he has a very good record.

This week also saw a number of Group-class performances in handicaps, the pick of which was First Mohican who ran to 119p when winning the first race at the Dante meeting. Sir John Hawkwood ran to 116 to win the Jorvik Stakes and at Hamilton, Mijhaar ran to the same level in the Braveheart Stakes.

With Royal Ascot just four weeks away, the juvenile action is beginning to gather pace. The Aidan O'Brien-trained Stubbs is surely bound for that meeting after breaking his maiden at the second attempt at the weekend, and his rating of 99p is the best a juvenile has recorded so far.

Not far behind on a rating of 98p is Beldale Memory who maintained her unbeaten record in the listed Marygate Stakes at York. Ceiling Kitty followed up her success in that in the Queen Mary and that looks an obvious target. A median rating of 107 has been required to win the Queen Mary in the last five years.

Finally, the wait for a US Triple Crown winner goes on, as Orb's bid was derailed with defeat in the second leg, the Preakness Stakes. On 124, he remains the highest-rated 3-y-o in North America though, with the Preakness winner Oxbow adjudged to have run to 122. 

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Cheltenham Festival 2013: Handicappers' Corner Special

"Sprinter Sacre’s imperious display in the Queen Mother Champion Chase earned him a rating of c192p, which is the highest since our Chasers & Hurdlers series began in 1975/6..."

Politics certainly isn't the only field in which "a week is a long time", explains jumps handicapper Phil Turner.

Indeed, I can report that it has been quite an eventful seven days for Welsh-born Evertonians who put ratings on horses for a living. It began with Everton being unceremoniously dumped out of the FA Cup by unfancied Wigan, whilst the day job got off to a similarly unpromising start when My Tent Or Yours (14lb clear on Timeform ratings) suffered defeat in the Cheltenham Festival opener on Tuesday. Fortunately, things rallied splendidly thereafter, and the week ended with Bobs Worth leading home a one-two-three for Timeform ratings in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Everton beating Premier League champions Manchester City. Oh, and in case anyone missed Saturday evening's rugby result, Wales thumped England to claim the Six Nations' title again. Smug doesn't even come close to covering it...

Although Wales ruled the roost in the rugby, it was Ireland - and particularly Willie Mullins - who stole the honours at the Cheltenham Festival, claiming a record haul of 14 wins. Mullins supplied five of those successes, with pride of place going to Hurricane Fly (Timeform rating h173), who became the first horse since Comedy of Errors in 1975 to regain his Champion Hurdle crown when producing a gutsy display to beat 2012 winner Rock On Ruby (h168) and Countrywide Flame (h164) - though the performances of the latter pair did provoke thoughts of "what might have been" with Darlan (h170), who was set to beat that pair comprehensively at Doncaster last month when suffering a fatal fall. 

That's 15 Grade 1 wins now for Hurricane Fly, which is a remarkable achievement that arguably hasn't received the credit it deserves. Indeed, many of the pre-Cheltenham preview nights downplayed Hurricane Fly's record due to him "beating the same horses on Irish soil". The folly of this argument was further highlighted when Solwhit (h164) - defeated by Hurricane Fly on four out of their five meetings - showed himself to be better than ever when winning the World Hurdle. Hot favourite Oscar Whisky (h167) patently failed to give his running in the World Hurdle but, happily, that proved to be the exception to the rule during Festival week, with most of the leading players running to somewhere near their best and producing some reliable-looking results.

Take the Gold Cup, for example, which saw all of the leading players run to form, Bobs Worth (c179) emerging as an above-average winner of the race as he stayed on strongly in the rain-softened conditions to beat Sir des Champs (c173) by seven lengths, with 2011 hero Long Run (c172) finishing third for the second year running - the last-named gelding is now rated on the balance of his form over the past two seasons. Silviniaco Conti (c172+) could well have stirred things up had he not fallen three out when still going strongly and, along with the Gold Cup first two, underlined what a vintage crop of novice chasers we enjoyed in 2011/12.

Second-season chasers duly dominated the other open Grade 1 chases at the meeting, with Cue Card (c175) proving far too strong for First Lieutenant (c166) and For Non Stop (c163) in the Ryanair Chase, in which 2012 winner Riverside Theatre (c162) could manage only fourth this time around. The Ryanair provided long overdue recognition on the big stage for Cue Card and confirmed our view that he is one of the very best horses in training - he now shares the same rating as Cheltenham absentee, and fellow second-season chaser, Flemenstar (c175) and they sit below only Bobs Worth and Sprinter Sacre in the Timeform chase rankings.

Ah yes, Sprinter Sacre. As many readers may already be aware, Sprinter Sacre's imperious display in the Queen Mother Champion Chase earned him a rating of c192p, which is the highest since our Chasers & Hurdlers series began in 1975/6, whilst the Tom Dreaper-trained superstars of the 1960s, Arkle and Flyingbolt, are the only horses to have achieved a higher rating in Timeform's 65-year history. It could be argued that the Champion Chase should be rated even higher, as neither of the placed horses have been rated as running to their very best Timeform figure, though a late stumble (plus the effort of trying to match strides with Sprinter Sacre) almost certainly contributed to 2011 winner Sizing Europe (c173) tiring close home as he finished 19 lengths back in second, running some 6lb below his best.

Simonsig (c162P) remains the most plausible challenger to stable-companion Sprinter Sacre in 2013/14, even though his win in the Arkle Chase wasn't quite as impressive as most had imagined it would be. That said, the grey still ran to a very high level of form in defeating Irish raider Baily Green (c157), who had a better chance on form than the betting suggested. In addition, Simonsig rather compromised his chance by racing too freely and jumping less fluently than usual, so it reflects well on him that he still had enough in reserve to hold on in the latter stages - particularly as fellow pacesetters Overturn (c156) and Arvika Ligeonierre (c155) folded tamely out of contention.

With the exception of Simonsig, the novice chasers on show at last week's Festival didn't look anything out of the ordinary and seem unlikely to be emulating that vintage crop from last season come next March. By contrast, there was an abundance of potential top-class performers to be found amongst the novice hurdlers in action over the four-day meeting. 

Despite that chastening defeat in the Supreme Novices', My Tent Or Yours (h167) remains very much one to consider for the 2014 Champion Hurdle, the manner in which he tanked through the race (combined with some very fluent jumping) going a long way to confirm the striking impression he'd made when winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. His Achilles' heel at this stage remains his response to pressure against a very tough opponent - his Cheltenham second to Champagne Fever (h165) was a carbon copy to the latter stages of last season's Aintree bumper, when he lost out to The New One. 

It also needs stressing that the 2013 Supreme looks a vintage renewal, with Champagne Fever, My Tent Or Yours and third-placed Jezki (h162) pulling fully 15 lengths clear of the remainder off a sound pace.  In addition, it is worth remembering that Sprinter Sacre also failed to get up the hill so well as seemed likely after pulling very hard for Tony McCoy when only third in a similarly strong Supreme in 2011, so it is certainly too soon to be writing off My Tent Or Yours.

The aforementioned The New One (h155p) could be renewing rivalry with My Tent Or Yours in 2013/14 if connections opt to drop him in trip following his impressive win in the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle. The New One certainly showed an impressive turn of foot to put that race to bed after a steady early gallop, whilst the likes of Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Rock On Ruby all contested this 21-furlong novice championship 12 months prior to tasting Champion Hurdle glory for the first time.

Perhaps the brightest Champion Hurdle hope to emerge from last week's Festival, however, was Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor (h160p), who posted the highest rating by a juvenile since Jair du Cochet (163 in 2000/01) and subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Hors La Loi III (162p in 1998/99). The Triumph form made plenty of sense amongst the main pack, so it is safe to assume that Our Conor is full value (at the very least!) for his 15-length winning margin and he should prove a formidable opponent to Hurricane Fly on Irish soil next winter.

In common with Our Conor, At Fishers Cross (h153p) can boast a 100% record in 2012/13 - including a defeat of The New One - and he justified favouritism in highly satisfactory fashion in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. It was a landmark Grade 1 victory for up-and-coming trainer Rebecca Curtis and ensured it wasn't the only Welsh victory over highly-touted English rivals last week...

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Cheltenham Festival 2012: Irish Handicappers to watch

Ante-Post Betting / Timeform / 07 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Willie Mullins has a strong hand in the Cheltenham Handicaps this year

"Irish-trained runners dominate the market for the cross-country event and Scotsirish appeals as one of the best-handicapped horses of the week..."

Establishing how well handicapped Irish challengers are at Cheltenham is still a tricky business, but Timeform's Irish team are here to shed some light on the chances of the leading handicap hopes...

Tuesday
Irish-trained runners dominate the market for the Cross-Country Chase and Scotsirish appeals as one of the best-handicapped horses of the week. A very smart performer in regulation events, few have taken to this unique test as seamlessly has Scotsirish, and he looked the most likely winner of the Glenfarclas at Cheltenham in November when carried out turning for home.

Scotsirish had the eventual winner of that race, Garde Champetre, behind when winning last time and, whilst Uncle Junior and Sizing Australia have both shown plenty of aptitude for these events, they were both vastly inferior to Scotsirish in regulation chases, so it's hard to get away from the Mullins runner.

The Centenary Chase on the same day looks as competitive as ever, and Shot From The Hip and Nearest The Pin look our main hopes, with the former also holding an entry in Friday's Grand Annual.

Shot From The Hip progressed into a smart novice hurdler last season, rounding off his campaign with a nine length win over Hidden Universe in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. He's yet to hit quite the same heights over fences, but he was far from disgraced when second to the progressive Rathlin in a Grade 2 at Naas last time and the handicapper looks to have taken a bit of a chance with him by allotting a mark of just 138.

The Tony Martin-trained Nearest The Pin really came good over hurdles last spring, hacking up in a novice at Fairyhouse before shaping like one still ahead of his mark despite a 13 lb rise when second to Johnny Mcgeeney at Punchestown. Nearest The Pin got close to the pick of his hurdles form when second to Hidden Cyclone in a maiden chase at Leopardstown in December and, given that he was amiss last time, could be worth another chance to improve with conditions looking set to be in his favour.

Wednesday
Gordon Elliott has both last year's winner Carlito Brigante (also in the World Hurdle) and Toner d'Oudairies in the Coral Cup.

The latter makes plenty of appeal from what looks a workable mark, as while he didn't really go on as expected as a novice last term, he shaped as if in good heart over a trip that seemed to stretch him when sixth to Jetson at Leopardstown last time and appeals as the type who will benefit from a sounder surface and the drop back in trip.

Noel Meade's Silverhand was going well when hampered in the 2010 Coral Cup and looked as good as ever when last seen in the summer. He's not had many chances to show his worth in well-run two and a half mile handicaps on good gound and could also go well at a big price.

Ut de Sivola looks the most interesting of the Irish entries for the Fred Winter, though none of our juveniles come out with much of a chance based on Timeform ratings. It's best to put a line through Ut de Sivola's last run (struck into) and he had quickly established himself as a useful hurdler prior to that, beating Hisaabaat at Punchestown in January. His sound jumping should stand him in good stead in what is traditionally a pretty rough race for four-year-olds.

Thursday
Catch Me is a fascinating runner in what is a typically trappy renewal of the Pertemps Final on Thursday. A very smart hurdler in his prime, he never totally convinced over fences and, having tumbled in the weights, shaped as if retaining at least a decidedly useful level of form when fifth to Cootamundra at Punchestown last time, staying on well having been set plenty to do. He's potentially very well treated from a mark of just 140.

Seabass is the standout Irish hope in the Byrne Group Plate, though he doesn't look to have been let off lightly with a mark of 151. He's improved in leaps and bounds since returning to Rules this season, registering his fourth straight win when beating Zaarito in a two mile Grade event at Naas last time, but is forced to race from a 20 lb higher mark than when last seen in handicaps.

Up The Beat is an interesting runner in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup and Willie Mullins' progressive novice chaser comes into the race on the back of a very promising second to subsequent Eider winner Portrait King at Punchestown. Up The Beat ran to a decidedly useful level on that occasion and he remains open to further progression given that was only his third start over the larger obstacles.

Friday
Things don't get any easier on Friday, with the County Hurdle as fiercely competitive as ever. There are a couple of strong candidates from the Emerald Isle, however, and Citizenship would command plenty of respect if he turns up based on his win at Leopardstown last time. Shuffled to rear after badly hampered at the first and still having only two behind on the approach to two out, Citizenship finished with a flourish to lead close home.

It's the Gordon Elliott-trained Dirar that is of most interest, however, the former Ebor winner having shaped better than the result suggests when eighth to Final Approach in last year's renewal after being given too much to do under a patient ride and not getting a clear run from the top of the hill. He hasn't been seen since a spell hurdling in America last October but has been given a workable mark for his return.

We've touched upon the chances of Toner d'Oudairies and Citizenship elsewhere, so that just leaves us with Sergent Guibs to look at in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle. Lightly raced, having had just the two runs for Willie Mullins, Sergent Guibs caught the eye when a not-knocked-about third to Cootamundra in a handicap at Punchestown last time. There is room for improvement in his jumping, but he remains unexposed for a top yard and could have more to offer in handicaps.

Recommendations
Back Scotsirish in the Cross-Country Chase
Back Toner d'Oudaries in the Coral Cup
...........

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