Eurovision Betting Trends: Essential info for finding a winner

Eurovision Song Contest / Simon Hopper / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Please note, winners look like these two - Azerbijan's Nikki and Ell

"Six of the last eight winners were soloists aged 30 or under, while young Azerbaijani duo Ell/Nikki triumphed last year to add further weight to the ‘young is better’ theory."

Five high-quality nuggets to consider before striking your Eurovision bets, thanks to Simon Hopper

Betting on the Eurovision Song Contest can be a real minefield for punters, with endless reams of statistics, YouTube videos and tactical voting patterns to study ahead of the big night. However, there are a few fundamental trends to have developed over the years that are well worth adhering to. I've picked out five key Eurovision betting rules that will hopefully point you in the direction of the 2012 winner...

Defending champions never win...but most winners did well the year before
No country has retained the Eurovision Song Contest since 1994, when Paul Harrington and Charlie McGettigan won for Ireland performing "Rock 'n' Roll Kids". In fact, no defending champion has even come close to victory in recent years - none of them have even broken into the top five since Turkey in 2004. However, most winning nations did well the previous year. Three of the last four champions finished in the top five 12 months before, including last year's winners Azerbaijan who were fifth in Oslo in 2010.

Nordic and Baltic countries do well
The voting system has changed slightly in recent years but even so you just cannot ignore the superb record of countries from the Nordic and Baltic regions. Nine of the last 13 winners have been from one of these areas, while the likes of Turkey and Azerbaijan have also triumphed in this time to supplement the theory that Eastern nations normally do well. Nordic countries, in particular, are almost always at the top end of the scoreboard - over the last three years, an incredible 33% of all top five finishers were nations from this region. Geographically speaking, Germany are the westernmost winners this century, which isn't good news for the likes of France, Spain or the UK.

Sing an English language song
Eleven of the last 13 Eurovision Song Contest winners sung at least part of their song in English, while all but one of these were sung 100% in English. This is a relevant trend because a lot of acts still choose to perform in their native tongue - eight of the 25 finalists last year fell under this category, and some of the leading contenders this time around are also going down the same route.

Young soloists are dominating
Bad news for Engelbert Humperdinck fans; young solo singers are the Eurovision flavour of the month. Six of the last eight winners were soloists aged 30 or under, while young Azerbaijani duo Ell/Nikki triumphed last year to add further weight to the 'young is better' theory.

Perform towards the end
In recent years, acts performing at the end of the show have had a massive advantage. Over the last 7 years, all of the winners came from within the final 8 acts to perform on the night, and there hasn't been a genuine 'mid-division' champion since Ukraine in 2004.

Singer says Eurovision selection is an "honour" after BBC announces that he will perform for the UK on May 26. And Betfair punters slash the odds on first British win for 15 years......

...or why you should back Iceland and consider a few savers on Romania, Austria and Finland...

The Euro song wars heat up with semi no.2 where those pesky Irish brothers are likely to be a highlight (seriously)...

Amazon Watches Center

The Betfair Contrarian: Why France won't win Eurovision

Eurovision Song Contest / The Betfair Contrarian / 11 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

You heard it here first - Amaury Vassili will not be smiling on Saturday night

"France haven’t won since 1977 and haven’t even hit the podium positions since 1991, while their results have grown progressively worse, with just one top-ten finish in eight years and three of their last six attempts landing in the bottom four."

They're the [2.96] favourites but the stats say Europe will deliver a stern 'non' to the French on Saturday night, says the Betfair Contrarian

The Eurovision Song Contest in the 21st century has largely been a tale of first-time winners and Big Four (United Kingdom, Germany, France and Spain) failure, but Germany's 2010 victory appears to have changed the landscape. Indeed, the top of this year's winner market looks most unfamiliar, with France, Ireland (Jedward) and the UK (Blue) leading the way. The Contrarian wisely steered punters away from last year's favourites Azerbaijan though, and this year recommends giving operatic French entry "Sognu" the elbow this time at [2.98]...

"Sognu" is certain to divide opinion
Twenty-one-year-old tenor Amaury Vassili's "Sognu" has received huge support from Betfair punters, currently trading at [2.96] to triumph having at one point been backed at [250.0]. It's expected to be a big hit with the judges that have a 50 per cent weighting in the vote for each nation, however the other half is determined by the viewing public, and how they will respond to a highbrow submission which varies drastically from the standard Eurovision fare is unclear, with the majority of modern winners either being simple ballads, high-tempo pop and occasionally rock that doesn't take itself too seriously.

It's a good song, but it's still France!
Several recent French Eurovision Song Contest entries have quite rightly been derided, however there is no disputing that this year's offering is their most promising in ages, with the decision to go down the opera route ensuring that it will stand out from the crowd. Even so, a good track is no guarantee of success, especially when your record in the competition is as dire as France's. They haven't won since 1977 and haven't even hit the podium positions since 1991, while their results have grown progressively worse, with just one top-ten finish in eight years and three of their last six attempts landing in the bottom four.

And the draw has been very unkind
France's call to pick a song that differs from almost everything else on the show is perhaps influenced by the belief that something unique is more likely to be remembered, so their strategy has been clearly compromised by the draw forcing them to be the 11th of the 25 challengers on stage, and perform right before equally left-field Italian choice "Follia d'amore". The last six finals have all been won by one of the eight closing acts, while the middle of the pack is the worst place to be, with only one of the 90 acts drawn in positions nine to 17 over the last decade finishing first.

They've got the language decision all wrong
Sebastien Tellier's 2008 effort "Divine" was a solid Eurovision song produced by Daft Punk's Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo, yet it divided opinion in France due to the inclusion of some English lyrics. Much to French vexation, English is undeniably now the language of Eurovision, having been the tongue adopted by 11 of the last 12 winners. In 2010, all of the seven highest scorers sung in English, while the finalists that opted for another dialect wound up in an average place of 13th. So though the decision to abandon French seems shrewd, singing in Corsican on "Sognu" might not be the wisest of choices.

There are safer options available at bigger prices
Female solo stars have claimed top spot in six of the last eight years so the absence of any in the top four of the market is begging to be exploited. Last year's champion Lena - tipped by the Contrarian at [5.8] on that occasion - is back to defend her crown on home soil for Germany [21.0] and while "Taken by a Stranger" isn't as catchy as "Satellite", she has a huge fanbase and was clearly liked by the judges. Another intriguing contender is Getter Jaidi of Estonia [14.0], whose song "Rockefeller Street" should breeze through the second semi-final.

For an alternative take on this year's Eurovision Song Contest please follow @betfairpoker twitter feed.

We will be running Eurovision themed free roll this Saturday at 7pm UK time (Password: Big Carlos)

http://Bit.ly/BetfairPoker

Europe is such an unwieldy beast that we have to split the Eurovision hopefuls into two - but that shouldn't endanger the fancied countries, says Eliot Pollak...

Dan Fitch takes a look at the most weird and wonderful performances at Eurovision....

Dan Fitch takes a look at the problems that face the UK as they attempt to win Eurovision....

Play Casino & Poker here

Eurovision 2011: Favourites prepare for semi stroll

Eurovision Song Contest / Eliot Pollak / 10 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ell and Nikki from Azerbaijan are fancied to go well - and why not - they make a lovely couple don't they?

"Whilst there is obviously a wee bit of glory in winning the semi, the aim for each ‘artist’ would be simply to reach the final. Think of Usain Bolt jogging towards the line in a 100m Olympics heat, before ploughing your earnings into a Semi-Final ‘Winner’ bet."

Europe is such an unwieldy beast that we have to split the Eurovision hopefuls into two - but that shouldn't endanger the fancied countries, says Eliot Pollak

With the big five of Spain, Italy, Germany, France and the old UK all bulldozing their way straight through to the final, our Eurovision attention turns to the two semi-finals, from which ten nations will emerge from each, for the dubious honour of competing in Saturday night's Dusseldorf showdown.

The first point to consider in the betting is the markets themselves. Whilst there is obviously a wee bit of glory in winning the semi, the aim for each 'artist' would be simply to reach the final. Think of Usain Bolt jogging towards the line in a 100m Olympics heat, before ploughing your earnings into a Semi-Final 'Winner' bet. It is little surprise therefore, that most of the liquidity can be found in the 'To Qualify' market.

It is no surprise to see Russia and Azerbaijan as the two favourites to go through - the Azerbaijani entry is hotly fancied to win the whole thing (more of which later in the week).

The long shots to qualify (aside from San Marino) are the Portuguese, possibly due to being one of only two countries in this semi, to risk singing in their native language - the other being Poland. Opting to warble in any language other than English is Eurovision suicide - after all, there has only been one winner since 1998 who has completely shunned our mother tongue.

Having had your bet, BBC3 at 20:00 on Tuesday night is your place to watch the first Semi-Final, where Sara Cox will be revealing to the nation that she is still alive, by ramming a commentary down our necks, in her usual subtle, dulcet tones.

Dan Fitch takes a look at the most weird and wonderful performances at Eurovision....

Dan Fitch takes a look at the problems that face the UK as they attempt to win Eurovision....

Germany will be wheeling out last year's winner Lena Meyer-Landrut while Britain has employed the 'talents' of ageing 'boy' band Blue, even Ireland are putting their faith in the star names with Jedward preparing to perform. But can the proven...

Play Casino & Poker here

5 reasons why the UK won't win Eurovision

Eurovision Song Contest / Dan Fitch / 20 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

A man who has done much damage to the UK's Eurovision hopes.

Dan Fitch takes a look at the problems that face the UK as they attempt to win Eurovision.

To win Eurovision all you have to do is to come up with the best/catchiest song, right? Wrong. It's a lot more complicated than that. Especially if you're British.

The Brits haven't won the contest since 1997 and are poor value at a price of [11.0] to win this year. Here are the five reasons why the UK won't win Eurovision.

How many boy bands were asked to represent the UK before Blue were dug up from obscurity? The group do at least have some past form in the competition, but unfortunately it's the type that you would best describe as 'poor'.

Lee Ryan wrote the song 'Guardian Angel', that Andy Scott-Lee performed on a 2005 reality show to find our Eurovision entry, only for the British public to decide that Scott-Lee should remain most famous for being married to Michelle Heaton. The following year saw Anthony Costa finish second in the same contest, with his incorrectly named song 'It's a Beautiful Thing' (it wasn't).

Blue's Eurovision entry is called 'I Can', which we'll all be referring to as 'We Can't' if they fail to win. It's a forgettable number that was probably rejected by Take That, Westlife and The Wanted before being reluctantly handed over to Blue. At best this song could end up being used as background music in the next series of Masterchef, but it won't win Eurovision.

The trouble with the British is that when we're not getting involved in illegal wars, we tend to be quite fair about things. This is a mistake when it comes to Eurovision, where being fair is a shortcut to finishing in a lowly position.

In 2003 we scored a deserved 'nul points', when Jemini sang so off-key that is sounded as if the duo were warbling different songs, but we might have been saved this embarrassment if we made better friends with our neighbours.

Take Greece and Cyprus for instance. In every contest since 1998 they have given each other 12 points, regardless of the quality of the songs involved. Then there was the case of the 2007 contest where the first fifteen places were suspiciously filled by nations east of the Adriatic sea.

A wise old sage (possibly Thoreau) once said, 'Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours'. Unfortunately we don't have any neighbours who particularly like us, which brings us to our third point, after this video showing the history of the Greece/Cyprus bromance.

Our Eurovision chances are not helped by the fact that at one time or another we have been at war with just about every country in Europe, apart from Switzerland... and that was only because we had no use for all those cuckoo clocks.

The days of us getting into scuffles against Europe's great and good may be over, but our current involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan have made us about as popular on the continent as driving on left. We have no close friends, only former enemies.

There's not a lot we can do about this, apart from trying to stop annoying everyone. Or alternatively we could play hard-ball and insist that every skint European nation that we help to bail out, gives us 12 points.

While Eurovision isn't treated with the sincerity on the continent that we British often imply, it's fair to say that it's not thought of as quite so much of a joke in Europe.

The sniggering British attitude towards Eurovision is partly down to the fact that for many years it was commentated on by Terry Wogan, who would spend the entire show taking the p*ss out of everyone.

Wogan has now gone, but by choosing Graham Norton as his replacement, the BBC did nothing to dispel the notions that Eurovision is something to be laughed at and only enjoyed by the gay community. We're not saying that Eurovision should be treated with the same sort of sincerity that BBC extend to their coverage of Remembrance Sunday, but just pointing out that our attitude towards Eurovision isn't going to endear us to the people handing out points.

We are the nation that gave the world the likes of The Beatles, Dusty Springfield, The Kinks, Scott Walker, Led Zeppelin, David Bowie, Roxy Music, Elvis Costello, The Jam, Blur, Radiohead and Michelle McManus. What have the whole of Europe produced in return? The Scorpions, Roxette, Vanessa Paradis... and Abba - OK, they were good, we'll give them that.

Our point is that in any contest involving European nations and popular music, there should only be one winner. Other than the United States (who aren't in Europe, fact fans) no other country has produced better pop and rock acts than the UK and some of them have even been interested in getting involved in Eurovision. Oasis wanted to enter 'All Around The World' in 1998, while Morrissey was keen to represent the UK in 2007. Who did we send instead? Someone called 'Imaani' and Scootch.

So why don't we use such talents in the Eurovision song contest? If we were to enter the cream of our musical crop then we'd either win every year, or could sit smug in the knowledge that the rest of Europe were just being deliberately contentious. We're never going to win the World Cup, but popular music is the one thing that we're demonstrably better at than the French, Dutch and Germans.

Germany will be wheeling out last year's winner Lena Meyer-Landrut while Britain has employed the 'talents' of ageing 'boy' band Blue, even Ireland are putting their faith in the star names with Jedward preparing to perform. But can the proven...

Dan Fitch takes a look at the Eurovision Song Contest entries that embarrassed the UK....

After being dead in the water for the last few years punters believe that former chart darlings Blue could put the UK back on the Eurovision map...

Play Casino & Poker here

Eurovision Odds: UK fancied for Euro-pop glory

Eurovision Song Contest / Joe Dyer / 10 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Remember them? Blue could reclaim the glory with a successful Eurovision campaign

"Whether Blue can overcome the Euro-pop politics that dominate the competition remains to be seen."

After being dead in the water for the last few years punters believe that former chart darlings Blue could put the UK back on the Eurovision map

Ageing boy band Blue could be in with a chance of winning this year's Eurovision Song Contest, according to the betting on Betfair. The four-piece are currently the second favourites at [8.2] to land the continental music prize with their effort I Can.

France's entry Sognu by Amaury Vassilli is the current [6.4] favourite to win the competition, while Estonia's Getter Jaani is in third with Rockefeller Street at [9.0].

X Factor rejects Jedward, who are representing Ireland, are out at [34.0] for Eurovision glory.

Betfair's Alex Bake said: "Blue weren't particularly fancied this morning, trading out at [11.0]. But the punters' reaction to their entry seems to have been positive, which has seen them shorten.

"But whether they can overcome the Euro-pop politics that dominate the competition remains to be seen."

After being dead in the water for the last few years punters believe that former chart darlings Blue could put the UK back on the Eurovision map...

England football fans will certainly be hoping the Eurovision Song Contest provides no omens for the World Cup......

Eurovision is great for throwing up surprise winners - and great betting stories - but it always pays to know who the big guns are and why. Here's a rundown of the big five......

Play Casino & Poker here