Eurovision Betting Trends: Essential info for finding a winner

Eurovision Song Contest / Simon Hopper / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Please note, winners look like these two - Azerbijan's Nikki and Ell

"Six of the last eight winners were soloists aged 30 or under, while young Azerbaijani duo Ell/Nikki triumphed last year to add further weight to the ‘young is better’ theory."

Five high-quality nuggets to consider before striking your Eurovision bets, thanks to Simon Hopper

Betting on the Eurovision Song Contest can be a real minefield for punters, with endless reams of statistics, YouTube videos and tactical voting patterns to study ahead of the big night. However, there are a few fundamental trends to have developed over the years that are well worth adhering to. I've picked out five key Eurovision betting rules that will hopefully point you in the direction of the 2012 winner...

Defending champions never win...but most winners did well the year before
No country has retained the Eurovision Song Contest since 1994, when Paul Harrington and Charlie McGettigan won for Ireland performing "Rock 'n' Roll Kids". In fact, no defending champion has even come close to victory in recent years - none of them have even broken into the top five since Turkey in 2004. However, most winning nations did well the previous year. Three of the last four champions finished in the top five 12 months before, including last year's winners Azerbaijan who were fifth in Oslo in 2010.

Nordic and Baltic countries do well
The voting system has changed slightly in recent years but even so you just cannot ignore the superb record of countries from the Nordic and Baltic regions. Nine of the last 13 winners have been from one of these areas, while the likes of Turkey and Azerbaijan have also triumphed in this time to supplement the theory that Eastern nations normally do well. Nordic countries, in particular, are almost always at the top end of the scoreboard - over the last three years, an incredible 33% of all top five finishers were nations from this region. Geographically speaking, Germany are the westernmost winners this century, which isn't good news for the likes of France, Spain or the UK.

Sing an English language song
Eleven of the last 13 Eurovision Song Contest winners sung at least part of their song in English, while all but one of these were sung 100% in English. This is a relevant trend because a lot of acts still choose to perform in their native tongue - eight of the 25 finalists last year fell under this category, and some of the leading contenders this time around are also going down the same route.

Young soloists are dominating
Bad news for Engelbert Humperdinck fans; young solo singers are the Eurovision flavour of the month. Six of the last eight winners were soloists aged 30 or under, while young Azerbaijani duo Ell/Nikki triumphed last year to add further weight to the 'young is better' theory.

Perform towards the end
In recent years, acts performing at the end of the show have had a massive advantage. Over the last 7 years, all of the winners came from within the final 8 acts to perform on the night, and there hasn't been a genuine 'mid-division' champion since Ukraine in 2004.

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The Championship Betting: Victory essential for Hornets' play-off push

Championship / Andrew French / 21 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dougie Freedman is hoping his Crystal Palace side can get at least a point at Doncaster

"The Eagles were making a half-decent fist of staying up with only one defeat in four before suffering a damaging home defeat to Scunthorpe a week ago."

With just a handful of games to go the Easter programme has a big say in deciding who goes up and who goes down, and Andrew French is hoping Watford can see of Barnsley and push for a play-off spot.

Friday April 22
Coventry v Scunthorpe
If ever a change of manager has saved a season, then it certainly has for Coventry. The Sky Blues were in freefall under Aidy Boothroyd, plummeting from 5th in mid-December to 19th by mid-March due to a run of one win in 17 games. However, caretaker Andy Thorn has steered City to four games without defeat, three of which they have won - and victory in this game would end any last lingering doubts about the drop. Coventry have won their last two at home, including last weekend's defeat of promotion-chasing Millwall. They also fare well at the Ricoh Arena against teams in the bottom half, winning seven out of 10. Despite a morale-boosting away win at Crystal Palace last weekend, Scunthorpe still have plenty to prove on the road. That success was preceded by a run of 11 successive away defeats for the Iron, and the fact they have conceded at least once in each of their last 10 trips suggests Coventry will find the net.
Back Coventry at [1.88]

Doncaster v Crystal Palace
This fixture is really a case of never mind the quality, just find a winning bet. In form terms, these two are about as off-colour as you can find; Doncaster haven't won at home in seven attempts, Palace are without an away win in 15. In fact, Rovers haven't done much winning anywhere recently, with just one success in their last 15 outings. They have lost four of their last five and are not safe from the drop. So as much as they will want to win this one, they can't afford to lose it either - particularly as defeat would see them drop to 21st as Palace would leapfrog them.

The Eagles were making a half-decent fist of staying up with only one defeat in four before suffering a damaging home defeat to Scunthorpe a week ago. But Dougie Freedman's side did manage a draw in their last away game at Leicester, and they would happily take a point - although with two of their last three at home they can probably afford to be a little more cavalier than their hosts.
Lay Doncaster at [2.36]

Saturday April 23
Watford v Barnsley
Mathematically Watford are still play-off contenders, but they will almost certainly need to win this game for that statement still to be true after 90 minutes. The Hornets, tipped by many as relegation fodder, have far exceeded all expectations though and while their form recently has been poor (no wins in five), back-to-back draws at home to Norwich and away to Leeds shows they are in good heart. They also score goals, particularly at home; they have netted at least once in each of their last 13 outings at Vicarage Road and have only fired blanks twice in front of their own fans all season. They should be able to continue that good record against Barnsley, as only three sides (all in the bottom six) have conceded more away goals than the Tykes. They also have a dismal record when travelling to sides above them in the table, losing 10 of the 15 matches and failing to keep a clean sheet in any of them.
Back Watford at [1.92]

Since the start of 2011 Andrew has had 34 winning bets from 51 selections, resulting in a profit of £188.17 (£10 stake/liability on each selection)

There's still lots to play for in the Championship and Andrew French believes Preston, Hull and Crystal Palace can go along way to achieving their aims by securing vital home wins this weekend....

Andrew French is in terrific form currently and he believes Preston, Leicester, and plenty of goals at Vicarage Road, are the key to keeping that run going....

Bristol City's recent good form could come to an end at Barnsley says Andrew French, Ipswich should beat Crystal Palace, and expect goals in the Lions' Den when Millwall host promotion-chasing Leeds....

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