Eurovision Betting Trends: Essential info for finding a winner

Eurovision Song Contest / Simon Hopper / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Please note, winners look like these two - Azerbijan's Nikki and Ell

"Six of the last eight winners were soloists aged 30 or under, while young Azerbaijani duo Ell/Nikki triumphed last year to add further weight to the ‘young is better’ theory."

Five high-quality nuggets to consider before striking your Eurovision bets, thanks to Simon Hopper

Betting on the Eurovision Song Contest can be a real minefield for punters, with endless reams of statistics, YouTube videos and tactical voting patterns to study ahead of the big night. However, there are a few fundamental trends to have developed over the years that are well worth adhering to. I've picked out five key Eurovision betting rules that will hopefully point you in the direction of the 2012 winner...

Defending champions never win...but most winners did well the year before
No country has retained the Eurovision Song Contest since 1994, when Paul Harrington and Charlie McGettigan won for Ireland performing "Rock 'n' Roll Kids". In fact, no defending champion has even come close to victory in recent years - none of them have even broken into the top five since Turkey in 2004. However, most winning nations did well the previous year. Three of the last four champions finished in the top five 12 months before, including last year's winners Azerbaijan who were fifth in Oslo in 2010.

Nordic and Baltic countries do well
The voting system has changed slightly in recent years but even so you just cannot ignore the superb record of countries from the Nordic and Baltic regions. Nine of the last 13 winners have been from one of these areas, while the likes of Turkey and Azerbaijan have also triumphed in this time to supplement the theory that Eastern nations normally do well. Nordic countries, in particular, are almost always at the top end of the scoreboard - over the last three years, an incredible 33% of all top five finishers were nations from this region. Geographically speaking, Germany are the westernmost winners this century, which isn't good news for the likes of France, Spain or the UK.

Sing an English language song
Eleven of the last 13 Eurovision Song Contest winners sung at least part of their song in English, while all but one of these were sung 100% in English. This is a relevant trend because a lot of acts still choose to perform in their native tongue - eight of the 25 finalists last year fell under this category, and some of the leading contenders this time around are also going down the same route.

Young soloists are dominating
Bad news for Engelbert Humperdinck fans; young solo singers are the Eurovision flavour of the month. Six of the last eight winners were soloists aged 30 or under, while young Azerbaijani duo Ell/Nikki triumphed last year to add further weight to the 'young is better' theory.

Perform towards the end
In recent years, acts performing at the end of the show have had a massive advantage. Over the last 7 years, all of the winners came from within the final 8 acts to perform on the night, and there hasn't been a genuine 'mid-division' champion since Ukraine in 2004.

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X Factor 2011: Popularity the key to finding a winner

X-Factor / Mike Norman / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Amelia Lily - in danger of elimination

"If you haven’t already had a bet this year then my advice would be to split your stakes on Marcus Collins ([3.2]) and Janet Devlin ([5.2]) in the Winner market - both of whom appear to have huge support."

After another surprising exit on The X Factor Mike Norman is blaming the British public for their inconsistent voting, but can see popularity winning over ability from this point on.

It goes from bad to worse, betting wise that is, for me on this year's X Factor and it's time to apportion some blame. I'm not one to point an accusing finger usually but needs must, and you lot are the ones I'm not happy with.

Do you not remember that the week before last you loved Amelia Lily, you voted her back into the competition, and you saved her from elimination with ease? And do you not remember you disliked Misha Bryan and put her in the bottom two for the second time in three weeks?

This is not a singing competition remember. We all agreed to put the acts in an order based on how much we like them, and then we proceed to vote off the least favourite each week. On Sunday we were supposed to get rid of Bryan, not Craig Colton. Anyway, I've had a whip round and I've managed to put a few quid together to wager on a few certainties this weekend. But remember, stick to the plan; Lily and Bryan are still bottom of our list.

At least I can console myself with the fact that Jack Houghton - reconfirmed as the God of Reality TV betting - got last week wrong also. When Jack perms three acts to fill the bottom two positions, and none of them end up in the bottom two, then you know that The X Factor has thrown up another odd result.

Nothing should surprise us anymore on this year's show. Just look at Little Mix (Rhythmix). They were matched at [150.0] to win the competition five or six weeks ago, now they are vying for favouritism at around [3.2]. In fact, every one of the five remaining acts has been favourite at some point.

To be fair, Little Mix have arguably been the best performers in recent weeks, and Saturday's rendition of En Vogue's Don't Let Go elevated them to the 'very possible winners' status. For a girl group to get to the last five on the X Factor is some achievement, but for a girl group to get to the last five from 16 finalists having never been in the bottom two of a public vote speaks volumes for both their talent and popularity.

And it's that talent v popularity debate that is oh so vital from this point in.

I was being flippant earlier when I said that The X Factor isn't a singing competition, but there is more than an element of truth to that comment. All five remaining acts have proved they are capable of winning the competition; in other words, on their day they're as good as each other. And that means that who wins simply boils down to who has the most fans.

Singing ability is almost a second requirement now. True, a good or bad week on the stage might win or lose a performer 5,000 votes, but that is likely to make very little difference to someone who has a whole country (Janet Devlin - Ireland) or city (Marcus Collins - Liverpool) behind them.

And it's the popularity factor that means I can easily rule out Lily ([9.0]) and Bryan ([14.0]) from winning this year. I live in a town just outside of Middlesbrough and there's very little support for 'our' girl up here; nothing in the local papers, nothing on the local news, and 'Boro itself - and the surrounding towns - is tiny in population. Bryan on the other hand just seems generally unpopular, and it appears a day doesn't go by without some negative press about her. This will surely take its toll this weekend or next.

It's difficult to work out how much support, and where from, Little Mix has, so at this stage I'd be reluctant to get them on side. But if you haven't already had a bet this year then my advice would be to split your stakes on Collins ([3.2]) and Devlin ([5.2]) in the Winner market - both of whom appear to have huge support.

To this week's bets then. I will be gutted if Little Mix get eliminated without me backing them after being unsure of their support, so a small wager goes on them at [21.0] in the 12th Elimination market.

But I have to make Lily my main bet in this market at [3.5] with a saver on Bryan at [3.1]. A Lily or Little Mix exit will result in a good profit, a Bryan exit will result in us breaking even on this market. A bet on Misha/Amelia at [3.2] in the Bottom Two Combo market is also recommended, just in case the public follow the plan. You never know.

Recommended Bets

Back Amelia Lily @ [3.5] in 12th Elimination market (5pts)
Back Little Mix (Rhythmix) @ [21.0] in 12th Elimination market (1pt)
Back Misha Bryan @ [3.1] in 12th Elimination market (3pts)
Back Misha/Amelia @ [3.2] in Bottom Two Combo market (2pts)

Previously Recommended

Back Janet Devlin @ [4.6] in Winner market (2pts) - OPEN
Back Janet Devlin @ [4.0] in Winner market (2pts) - OPEN
Back Kelly Rowland @ [2.6] in Winning Mentor market (1pt) - OPEN
Back Sami Brookes @ [4.6] in Sixth Elimination market (1pt) - WON
Back Nu Vibe @ [4.0] in Fifth Elimination market (1pt) - WON
Back Craig Colton @ [18.0] in Winner market (1pt) - LOST
Back Misha Bryan @ [3.0] in 11th Elimination market (2pts) - LOST
Back Gary Barlow @ [5.0] in First Mentor Eliminated market (2pts) - LOST
Back Johnny Robinson @ [4.2] in Over 25s market (2pts) - LOST
Back Sophie Habibis @ [14.0] in Winner market (1pt) - LOST
Back Frankie Cocozza @ [2.1] in Eighth Elimination market (2pts) - LOST
Back Marcus Collins @ [15.0] in Eighth Elimination market (1pt) - LOST

*betting pts settled = 13; pts returned = 8.6; profit/loss = -4.4

Star Predictor

So with just five acts remaining what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner and next elimination markets check out our shiny new X-Factor Star Predictor...

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