World Cup 2014: The time is right for a European winner

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Sky Dogs Tips: Arc can be right up Shaneboy's Alley

"Shaneboy Alley, with useful Irish form in the book, has taken to this track well and is likely to take all the beating if trapping as he did in the semi-finals and is also open to further improvement having raced only twice since a four month break"

Shaneboy Alley who took an immediate shine to Swindon can make his record as the only unbeaten finalist pay dividends in the Arc final - live on Sky Sports  - on Wednesday evening says Darrell Williams, who also offers his thoughts on all six finalists and the supporting card.

T1 Longwood Warrior
Possibly lucky not to have had his card marked in both preliminary rounds, but will hopefully prove less interested in his rivals under lights. Switch to trap one interesting (two from two and best two runs from red). Not been trapping but kennelmate will ensure he has ample racing room and more to come judged on last year's form. Worth at least a saver.

T2 Longwood Bound
Big run in the semi-final but needs to trap again in similar style to repeat it, although fast enough if he does. Can be effective from this pitch but more middle draw appears preferable. 

T3 Jolly Bullseye
In red-hot form and just denied a five-timer in the semi-finals. Hard to play down his chances, although a switch of boxes with trap two might have helped both. Excellent pace up but will need to watch his step to clear his inside neighbour.

T4 Droopys Reason
Might not be too badly drawn and arguably traps better from a middle pitch anyway. Without a win in seven, but doesn't deserve to be such a huge price.

T5 Screen Critic
Trap draw has done him few favours as appears ideally suited to trap six given his wide favouring tendencies and probably needs to out-trap his wider neighbour to figure.

T6 Shaneboy Alley
Has taken well to this circuit and showed excellent speed from the boxes in the semi-final. Tends to stay wide until the bend, so biggest concern is clearing trap five on the run-up, but likely to take the beating if he does. Useful Irish form (Won Kingdom Derby at Tralee) and has won four of his last five starts. 

Verdict
Shaneboy Alley, with useful Irish form in the book, has taken to this track well and is likely to take all the beating if trapping as he did in the semi-finals and is also open to further improvement having raced only twice since a four month break. He will need to be wary of wide-moving Screen Critic, but is unlikely to attempt to cut in himself until nearing the first bend. Longwood Warrior has been the subject of much debate after taking too much interest in the opposition in both rounds, but the switch to racing under lights could help, while his best form last year, which he hasn't yet reproduced, came from trap one and he is worth saving on. 

19:34 Bitches
Sharies Miller easily accounted for Forest Mollie over the CD three weeks ago and can prove strong enough to confirm the form, despite a reversal of draws. Special Release faces a tough test from such an unfamiliar wide slot.

19:49 Sprint
Guinness Sky has been running well at Hove and can prove good enough despite a previous look round. Chester Lad should benefit from his local trial, while local runner Forest Bracken has chances back in trap one.

20:04 509m
Veteran Crusty Crab has had little racing of late but the track-record holder is given a confident vote after a spate of good trials. Ardkill Star ran well here from trap one recently and would be a big threat on his best form.

20:19 Stayers
Another all-railers contest and far from easy to assess, but despite a less than favourable draw Ding Hero's combination of excellent local four bend form and class could make him the one to beat. 

20:34 Standard
While a trap six slot would have been a bonus, exceptionally fast Tyrur Willyjoe has the pace to get clear and gets a confident vote. Taranis Rex has an excellent record here and would be an obvious threat if he could clear Farloe Iceman

20:49 Super Stayers
Little local form to go on but Aero Rebel is taken to confirm recent running with in-form marathon charge Ballymac Swift, who may find this trip on the sharp side.

21:04 509m
An intriguing contest but a tricky call between former Arc winner Ballymac Cryan whose preference to Eclipse winner Sawpit Sensation can only be a marginal one.

Recommended Bets
Crusty Crab 20:04
Sharies Miller 19:34
Tyrur Willyjoe 20:34
Shaneboy Alley 21:19

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Will Sturridge prove the right signing for Liverpool?

"Sturridge will have to be patient but, if his attitude is right, he should still flourish at Liverpool."

Christian Crowther debates whether Daniel Sturridge was the right solution to Liverpool's search for attacking reinforcement...

Wednesday was certainly one of the more uplifting days of Liverpool's season as the Reds swept aside Sunderland just hours after announcing the signing of Chelsea striker Daniel Sturridge.

Liverpool's new boy can only have been impressed with what he saw from the stands too, especially from Luis Suarez, the man he will have to dislodge if he's going to fulfil his wish of playing in his preferred central position.

And therein lays a potential problem. The pivotal reason why Sturridge instigated the switch from Stamford Bridge was due to Chelsea's reluctance to play him as a main striker.

Now he arrives at Anfield, where he will find a team which operates a similar system to the one he couldn't penetrate at Chelsea, only the man he will be fighting for a place is fast becoming one of the world's top players in his position.

Suarez's second successive brace took his season's tally to 15 Premier League goals - the same amount as he managed in the whole of his first year-and-a-half on Merseyside - and after Lionel Messi comparisons from an understandably effusive Brendan Rodgers, it's difficult to see anyone replacing the Uruguayan if fit.

According to Rodgers, Suarez is the sort of player who wants to play every minute of every game as well, so that leaves the manager with only a few options.

Either Sturridge has to settle for one of the wide roles in the front three, he plays Suarez out wide, or he changes the system and plays 4-4-2, which would make the already fierce competition for midfield places even more intense.

With Suarez scoring so freely from his central role though - rated at 3.8514/5 to be the league's top scorer - it is difficult to envisage Rodgers switching his star man to the flanks.

Furthermore, it's even harder to envisage Rodgers changing his formation just to accommodate the new signing.

It's far more plausible that Sturridge will initially have to settle for one of the wide positions, with possibly Raheem Sterling on the other side, or bide his time until Suarez is rested or even injured.

One thing is for sure though; Sturridge has pace to burn, meaning he can make it work in wide areas.

So although he may not be immediately deployed in his favoured role, his technical ability and youth make him exactly the sort of player the manager wants for his new-look side.

Sturridge will have to be patient but, if his attitude is right, he should still flourish at Liverpool.

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Premier League: Boot is on right foot for Suarez and Liverpool

"Brendan Rodgers’ odd-ball training-ground insight sounded more Mike Bassett than Messianic."

Romilly Evans looks at the virtuoso efforts of Luis Suarez, as he pursues Liverpool's redemption and the Golden Boot

Liverpool's worst start to a top-flight campaign since 1962 has picked up. It had to. And now, after Saturday's 3-0 romp at home to Wigan, it's their slowest start to a season in only 20 years. Nevertheless, they remain inside the bottom half of the table and are going nowhere. Which might lead fans to fear that Luis Suarez might be going somewhere in the forthcoming January transfer window. The Uruguayan has been the one ray of light beaming through the Reds' dark days and he again proved the point at the weekend with two well-taken goals to lift his league tally for the season to 10.

Those net gains, coupled to the manner in which most were scored, has already caught the attention of Roberto Mancini, who earlier in the week made Suarez his top target for when the Premier League Exchange opens up again after Christmas. The Man City manager, of course, is one of the few who doesn't wait for the January sales with a view to purchasing the league's bargains and best-kept secrets. Instead, Mancini can afford to pursue the glaringly obvious prized possessions of other clubs, no matter what the cost. However, even this spoilt child may not secure all that he craves.

Already knocked back in his pursuit of Falcao from Atletico Madrid, Mancini is facing a similar problem with the Liverpool lynchpin, ostensibly conceding defeat in his chase only days after citing Suarez as the object of his affections. His problem is two-fold. Firstly, having wisely put pen to paper on Suarez's new contract, the Reds are in a strong position to ward off suitors, including the Etihad variety, with exorbitant price tags. If they managed to flog Fernando Torres to Chelsea for a club-record fee of 50m, what price Suarez?

City have already subscribed to the new Financial Fair Play regulations, so even their purse strings may no longer have the elasticity to ensnare the South American. Secondly, though, Suarez himself genuinely appears to have embraced the Merseyside mythology which surrounds Liverpool. "I love this club," he enthused. "I am happy here, my family is happy here. I have fantastic team-mates, a manager from whom I'm learning and although we haven't begun the year as we'd have wanted, things are turning. I want to stay for many years."

Cynics might counter that Suarez sounds like an alcoholic about to fall off the wagon, but it seems he is intoxicated by another powerful agent: the unswerving belief of his manager and his peers. Anyone who saw the Liverpool FC which tailed Brendan Rodgers after his appointment will have doubtless concluded that it was a misjudged PR initiative from the club's American owners to export their "product" stateside. Rodgers' odd-ball interviews and training-ground insight sounded more Mike Bassett than Messianic. Yet, before these new clothes stripped him of all his dignity, Rodgers pulled off a masterstroke worthy of any successful emperor. He aligned his own fate with that of his most talented general, making him an untouchable field marshal. "Luis is our Lionel Messi," raved Rodgers. "He plays to false-nine role just as well, moving freely, forcing others to get in behind him. He's world-class."

The plaudits keep on coming. Steven Gerrard has recently identified Suarez as the best striker with whom he has ever played. Which puts the Uruguayan ahead of Torres, Michael Owen and God himself (Robbie Fowler). That's no faint praise and Gerrard is clearly relieved to trade his one-man-band badge to a grateful recipient. Naturally, no one player can carry a side's aspirations on their back. Gerrard gave it a good, single-handed shot in the 2005 Champions League, but the Premier League is a different matter. Still, for now, Suarez is repaying his comrades' faith in spades.

No longer prone to profligacy, Suarez's solitary Achilles heel is his discipline. If he can avoid the rash challenges, he should certainly be favourite for this year's Golden Boot, for which he is currently available at an attractive 4.216/5 to back. Robin van Persie may head this market, but the flying Dutchman is not his team's lone conduit to goal, while his frame has proved fragile in the past. Better to leave it instead to the main man on the Mersey.

Top Goalscorer may be the only individual honour a Liverpool player receives this term, but Suarez is also offering The Kop something more ethereal: the promise of a better tomorrow. So while Rogers' tactical revolution continues, at least there's plenty of joy to be found in their struggle.

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ABN Amro World Tennis 2012: The right conditions to back Federer

Events / Sean Calvert / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Roger Federer will enjoy the fast conditions this week

"But back on his favoured surface I can see Federer erasing the memory of the Davis Cup and obliging at around [2.2] at a tournament where, although he rarely plays here, he has a 17-5 record."

Sean Calvert isn't often in the business of tipping the tournament favourite but these days Roger Federer can be backed at odds-against. This is a tournament where he has a good record and is on a fast surface he'll like, so he's the call.

What a diabolical few days of betting I endured at the weekend, with some shocking luck manifesting itself across the board in both tennis and football.

Not only did Ivo Karlovic and Dan Evans suddenly become most unlikely Davis Cup heroes, but I also managed to back Luis Suarez to score first and Man United to win 2-1 at [85.0] at Old Trafford and Keith Andrews at [16.0] to score the last goal in the Black Country Derby (he scored in the 86th minute and it wasn't the last goal).

So, surely that misfortune can't continue and to put a stop to it, I'm having an investment in the week's biggest ATP event, the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam.

It's normally one of the quickest indoor hard surfaces of the year in Rotterdam and although they have altered the surface for this year's event I would imagine that it will be still fairly pacy, which will suit number one seed Roger Federer.

Fed was surprisingly beaten at odds of around [1.04] in the Davis Cup on clay by John Isner at the weekend and it won't be easy to switch from clay to quick indoor hard in a matter of days, but it certainly shouldn't be beyond the Swiss.

Federer has an excellent draw, away from main rivals Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro and has really only the unpredictable Alexandr Dolgopolov to concern him in the top half of the draw.

I'm not convinced, however, that Dolgo's junk ball playing style can beat a firing Roger Federer though and as ever with the Ukrainian, it's anyone's guess how he will perform on any given day.

Elsewhere in the top half, Mikhail Youzhny has found some form lately and the Russian, who enjoys the indoor conditions, will probably be Federer's second round opponent but he has a 0-11 career record against the Fed Express.

The former world number eight has a decent record here though, having won the title in 2007 and reaching the final two years ago.

Others in the top half include the returning Paul-Henri Mathieu, for whom this will be his second ATP Tour event since his comeback from injury, Feliciano Lopez, home favourite Robin Haase, the fading Nikolay Davydenko, and mercurial Frenchman Richard Gasquet.

The 'Gasman' was one of many of the top-20 players who skipped Davis Cup this weekend, but he's showing no signs of improvement so far in 2012 and will probably reach the last eight or possibly the semis at best this week.

The bottom half is much tougher to call with Berdych and Del Potro the obvious favourites, but also worth consideration are fast court specialist Michael Llodra, everyone's favourite racquet destructor Marcos Baghdatis, Serbia's Viktor Troicki, Marcel Granollers, Phillip Kohlschreiber and veteran Ivan Ljubicic.

Veteran Croatian, Ljubicic, enjoys Rotterdam where he has been twice a finalist and twice a semi finalist and it wouldn't be a huge shock if he found some form here this week and [90.0] is too big a price for a player of his class in these conditions, despite his advancing age.

Llodra won this in 2008 and will also enjoy the conditions, but his long flight back from Canada and opening match against Del Potro puts me off the [140.0] available about the Frenchman.

Berdych is a live contender based on his improved showing in 2012 and at around [7.0] he's not a bad shout, but he's never won back-to-back titles in his career on the ATP Tour and it's hard to see him starting now after winning in Montpelier last week.

Del Potro has been resting since Melbourne and is yet to win a title on indoor hard, but his draw looks pretty decent with Troicki and Ljubicic probably his main rivals.

But back on his favoured surface I can see Federer erasing the memory of the Davis Cup and obliging at around [2.2] at a tournament where, although he rarely plays here, he has a 17-5 record.

Recommended Bet

Back Federer at [2.2]

Long shot

Ljubicic at [90.0]

Working out who is going to win each quarter is half of the way to working out how to make a profit on the winner market of this event. Gary Boswell separates the value back-to-lays from the poor value bets....

This event does of course lack the glamour of the Australian Open just gone but there's a lively outsider who can come good for us if he's in the mood. Over to you, Guillermo....

The world's best are in Australia ahead of the first grand slam of the year and it's one of the most improved tennis players of 2011 who is attracting tipster Sean Calvert's money after hitting a big winner last week...

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Freeze Right There. Are You Bluffing?

Poker Strategy / Matthew Pitt / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Poker players instinctively freeze when bluffing.

The bluffer freezes in a vain attempt to go unnoticed by his opponents, just as you would do if a ferocious dog escaped from its garden and decided you were its lunch.

Most people have heard of the term "fight-or-flight" at least once in their lives. It is used to describe how animals and humans react when faced with immediate danger or threats, we either run away (flight) or stand toe-to-toe with our adversary (fight), or at least that is what most people think.

What these people fail to realise is there is actually another "F-word" thrown into the equation and that is Freeze. Since the very first human to present day man the very first reaction to danger is to completely freeze, not move, and hope that whatever the danger is does not see you. If a snarling dog jumps out of a garden whilst you are walking past your first reaction, the one you've not even had to think about, your instinct it to freeze. Admittedly within seconds you are probably thinking about running off or at the very least praying you are not about to be savaged by the angry beast stood there in front of you. But even for a split second your instinct is to freeze.

"I'm Not Here. You Can't See Me!"

You see this all of the time at the poker tables across the world, players suddenly freezing, becoming statuesque in an attempt not to give off any tells about the strength of their hand, but what they fail to realise when they lock up is they are often giving off a quite reliable tell that they are not in possession of a hand nearly as strong as they are trying to make you believe they have, they will be bluffing a large percentage of the time.

This is because the person running the bluff knows they have a weak hand and that they have chips invested in the pot and they find this threatening. After all, if their opponent calls they are almost always going to be beaten and they stand to lose the chips already in the pot and if it is a significant percentage of their stack they could even jeopardise their chances of winning the tournament or even make it through to the money places. The bluffer freezes in a vain attempt to go unnoticed by his opponents, just as you would do if a ferocious dog escaped from its garden and decided you were its lunch.

Out Of Character

The tell becomes more accurate if the player suddenly freezes, even for just a few moments, after making a bet and that player is usually one for looking around the table, tapping his leg, riffling his chips or any other sort of movement when he is playing. Some players become all too aware that they are no longer acting how they usually do and will go back to riffling chips, drumming their fingers etc but for two or three seconds they may have sat completely stoic, completely out of character.

The next time you are playing some poker in your local card room or casino and see an opponent freeze up, even if you are not in the hand with them, watch carefully as to what hand they eventually show down. Use this natural response to danger to aid your decision making because when it is combined with other observations you have made it can become a stone-cold and damning tell that the vast majority of people have little or no control over.

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Championship Betting: McClaren is right man for Forest

Championship / Paul Moon / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Paul believes Steve McClaren can succeed at the City Ground

"Apart from Sven Göran Eriksson, there's nobody else currently managing in the Championship with the pedigree of McClaren."

He may not be Brian Clough and he may not be Jose Mourinho but, England aside, Steve McClaren has a stellar CV and can guide Nottingham Forest back to the top flight, argues Paul Moon.

As a Nottingham Forest supporter, I was horrified to hear of the cruel sacking of Billy Davies and then equally dismayed by the subsequent appointment of Steve McClaren. At least I was initially because, once the dust had settled, a different picture emerged. After looking at the pros and cons of the appointment it became apparent that this was an excellent move for Forest.

England's failure to qualify for Euro 2008 still rankles and McClaren will likely never live down the wally with brolly tag. However, with this new appointment, McClaren has pitched his return to English football perfectly. With some prestige and a reasonable core of players to work with, the club looks like the perfect vessel for McClaren to destroy the caricature he created for himself and advertise his credentials as a quality manager.

Whether McClaren is adept at scrapping for points in the Championship remains to be seen but the division plays more football these days than it used to and it may not be the barrier it once was. With his temperament the suggestion is that he will work well with football consultant David Pleat and it is possible that a man of his stature might be able to unlock the purse strings, something Davies was unable to do latterly, with current chairman Nigel Doughty.

Apart from Sven Göran Eriksson there is no one else currently managing in the Championship with the pedigree of McClaren. Also, with the exception of Brian Clough, a coach of international repute has never managed Forest and not since 1996 under Frank Clark has the club experienced any degree of sophistication.

Since 1996 the Forest boardroom have relinquished good judgement and employed a conveyor belt of honest but uninspiring sorts, including Dave Bassett, Micky Adams, Mick Harford, Gary Megson and Colin Calderwood. This was interspersed with three dreadful appointments: Joe Kinnear, Ron Atkinson and David Platt, the damage of which is still felt today.

McClaren's absence from English league football is a slight negative. Once back in the groove and with his international and European experience behind him he should be stronger and more rounded than he was in November 2007.

Setting aside the debacle with England, his coaching CV is impressive. He is yet to receive sufficent credit for winning the Dutch Eredivisie with FC Twente. Sir Alex Ferguson does not suffer fools gladly and had him as number two when Manchester United won the treble in 1999. At Old Trafford he gained a reputation for being one of the most tactically astute coaches in the country. His term at Middlesborough was the most successful in their history, winning the League Cup and reaching the UEFA Cup final.

McClaren's association with Manchester United could help Forest this season with regard to loan players (now an important resource for Championship clubs). With his comprehensive knowledge of European football, he's also likely to attract quality players who might not be radar on radar of other clubs. At least one signing of that sort is imminent.

This job is not without pressure. McClaren will be expected to get Forest promoted at the very least and it is traditional in Nottingham for former players to snipe from the sidelines at the first hint of failure. Regardless, I believe McClaren is up to the task.

Betfair prices to win the 2011/12 Championship include: West Ham [5.7] Leicester [8] Birmingham [11] Reading [13] Nottingham Forest [14] Middlesborough [14.5] Cardiff [20] Blackpool [20] Southampton [20] Leeds [20] Ipswich [23] Burnley [27] Brighton [26] Bar [30].

Next season's Championship will boast some of the most high-profile managers in English football and Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch is backing Sam Allardyce to finish on top, ahead of two former managers of England....

West Ham have made the biggest signing of the summer so far in the Championship in the shape of Kevin Nolan, causing their title odds to crash....

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Michael Vaughan: Morgan was the right choice

England Cricket / Michael Vaughan / 25 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Eoin Morgan hits out during his fabulous knock of 193 for the Lions that resulted in him getting the nod over Ravi Bopara

"There were two good reasons as to why Morgan got the nod. The first was obviously to do with that majestic 193 he scored against Sri Lanka for the England Lions last week. Bopara was very much in the driving seat prior to that but despite playing no four-day cricket for a long time Morgan came to the crease and delivered when it mattered, in front of the men who mattered."

Michael Vaughan tells us why England were right to go with Eoin Morgan over Ravi Bopara ahead of the First Test.

It was a tough choice that Andrew Strauss and the England selectors had to make but in the end I think they got it right. It appeared to be a straight shoot-out between Eoin Morgan and Ravi Bopara for that middle-order slot that belonged to Paul Collingwood for so long and in the end they decided to go with the Irishman.

There were two good reasons as to why Morgan got the nod. The first was obviously to do with that majestic 193 he scored against Sri Lanka for the England Lions last week. Bopara was very much in the driving seat prior to that but despite playing no four-day cricket for a long time Morgan came to the crease and delivered when it mattered, in front of the men who mattered. The fact they gave so much importance to that innings also highlights the importance of doing well when you're called up to play for the Lions. Counties don't like it when their players are called up to play for them but, as far as I'm concerned, what matters most is the England cricket team. If players occasionally have to turn out for the Lions for the selectors to have a look at them, so be it.

The second reason is that Morgan hasn't had any failures in Test cricket. He hasn't played much but he's done well when he's been given a chance and, of course, the same can't be said of Bopara. He's been in and out of the side for a while now and being dropped time and again can't be any good for your confidence. I suspect he'll get at least one more chance in the Test arena to show us what a talented player he really is but I fear it may be his last. The Morgan selection is a bit of a gamble in the sense that Bopara has been bowling quite a few overs for his county recently and could provide a useful fifth bowling option, especially when that super India batting line-up come to town. But, all in all, I agree Morgan should have been the one getting the call-up.

Michael Vaughan tells us why Andrew Strauss will be so keen to make an impact in this First Test and how Mahela Jayawardene is the obvious choice to top score for Sri Lanka in the first innings....

Former England captain Michael Vaughan gives us his take on the challenges Sri Lanka face in this Series, why Kevin Pietersen can come good this summer and how to approach the betting for the First Test....

Betfair is delighted to announce that Michael Vaughan has signed up to become our full-time cricket ambassador....

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Winner Stays On: What if Mourinho is right?

Winner Stays On / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jose Mourinho can't believe what's going on at the moment

"Real players are sent off when they shouldn't have been, Barca's get away with murder, penalties aren't awarded to his team but they're awarded against his sides. It's all engineered to stop him on his tracks and prevent him from winning yet another Champions League title."

Conspiracy theories are the name of Mourinho's game. But what does Winner Stays On make of it all?

So Jose Mourinho has complained that it's all a conspiracy.

Everyone wants Barcelona to win and for whichever club he's in charge of to lose. Barca are in on it and UEFA are pulling the strings to ensure that every decision goes against them. Real players are sent off when they shouldn't have been, Barca's get away with murder, penalties aren't awarded to his team but they're awarded against his sides. It's all engineered to stop him on his tracks and prevent him from winning yet another Champions League title.

We're fair people here at Winner Stays On and for what it's worth that sending off of Pepe did look a little harsh in the context of the match given the referee had been pretty lenient up to that point with the way he'd gone about officiating the match. But if it is all a conspiracy as he suggests and they really are all out to get him we were just wondering: given how he's conducted himself over the past eight years or so - could you blame anyone if it was all true?

Searching for glory in a fair and equitable way this week are this week's two contestants.

EddieHoweDo?'s selections

Toulouse v Lyon - Back Lyon HT/FT at 3.5
Setabal v Porto - Back Over 2.5 goals at 1.76
Bayern Munich v Schalke - Back Bayern Munich to win at 1.36

Johnyrambo's selections

Toulouse v Lyon - Back Toulouse to win at 4.1
Setubal v Porto - Back the Draw at 4.0
Bayern Munich v Schalke - Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.58

We have two new contestants this week battling it out to stay on. Find out why......

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Follow The Money: Make the right Decision

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 14 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Follow The Money land a winner at Taunton (above)?

"Decision has seen market support and is now in to [5.90] from [8.85]."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Plumpton and Taunton respectively.

Starting at Plumpton in the 14:00 Novices Hurdle (Class 4) over 2m 5f, Amaury De Lusignan has been backed in to [2.78] from [4.70]. The five-year-old gelding finished fifth last time out at Fakenham in a class three contest. Today represents an easier prospect and his chances may increase on drier ground as he finished second in Dromahane over 3m on good ground on his debut. This looks like a wide open contest and it is difficult to evaluate what horses have achieved so far in their career.

The negative of the day also comes at Plumpton in the 15:30 Handicap Chase over 2m 1f. Rileyev has drifted out to [3.15] from [2.73]. Rileyev is a six-year-old French bred. French breds often mature earlier than their counterparts and there may well be more to come. However, Rileyev is racing off 14lb higher than when winning at heavy ground in Newbury and carries an extra 7lb for his win last time out at Newbury. In addition, he may well be more suited to cut in the surface so drying ground doesn't appear to suit.

At Taunton, in the 16:20 Handicap Hurdle (Class 4), Decision has seen market support and is now in to [5.90] from [8.85]. His Sire is Royal Applause whose offspring often have a preference for firmer ground. He finished fifth last time out at Taunton over today's distance on soft ground which was reasonable though not particularly impressive. He tends to run better races on good and firmer ground, so the forecast is a positive and he benefits from having ridden over the course and distance.

Recommended bets:
Back Amaury De Lusignan @ [2.78] Plumpton 14:00
Lay Rileyev @ [3.15] Plumpton 15:30
Back Decision @ [5.90] Taunton 16:20

Sunday's three Follow The Money bets come from Market Rasen and Warwick....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Sandown and Chepstow....

Today's Follow The Money movers are all in action at Wincanton....

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