Euro 2012 
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Dave Farrar / 01 April 2012 /
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Some familiar faces in Italy's line-up including Andrea Pirlo and Gianluigi Buffon
"They may not be at Spain and Germany’s level, but don’t expect the mess of Lippi Mark Two. "
After the disaster at the last World Cup, Italy have rebuilt under Cesare Prandelli and are once again looking the composed, disciplined and organised side we expect them to be, says Dave Farrar.
Spain at [3.75] and Germany at [4.4] dominate the betting in the Euro 2012 winner market. Those prices are probably about right for two outstanding teams, but it's our job in the build up to the tournament to find something approaching a value bet, and maybe a way to take on the big two.
I can't have England at [10.5] in a month of Sundays, and my colleague Ben Lyttleton will eloquently make the case for the Netherlands elsewhere, but both Italy and France strike me as interesting propositions at prices of [16.0] and [14.5] respectively
We'll take a detailed look at France in a couple of weeks time, but what of Prandelli's Italy? The Azzurri have a tough group, starting off against the World Champions, before facing Croatia and then a potential second-place decider against Giavanni Trappatoni and the Republic of Ireland.
It plays into Italy's favour that Spain are first up: think back to World Cup 2010 and how long it took the eventual winners to get into their stride. There's every chance that nine of Spain's starting eleven will have been involved in the Champions League final a month before, and while that tells you everything that you need to know about their quality, it also emphasises the pressures of a long La Liga and Champions League campaign. Del Bosque's team may not be at their freshest, even three weeks on, and have showed enough frailty in the last couple of years to suggest that they may be a lay against the Italians at [1.66].
Italy waltzed through an easy qualifying group, winning eight of their ten games and conceding only two goals. The nature of the teams that they overcame, though, as well as a poor performance at the last World Cup, means that Italy aren't being given much of a chance by anyone. Claudio Prandelli's has been a rebuilding job, though, and he has done it quietly and efficiently. They may not be at Spain and Germany's level, but don't expect the mess of Lippi Mark Two.
Juventus remain unbeaten and defensively solid at the time of writing, and they will provide the solid base of the Azzurri in Poland and Ukraine. Now that he's seemingly injury-free, Gigi Buffon can still justifiably be called the best goalkeeper in the world, and while he doesn't have a Franco Baresi style backline in front of him, he does have team mates to rely on. Andrea Barzagli and Giorgio Chiellini of Juventus will almost certainly start at centre half, with a third member of Antonio Conte's side, Leonardo Bonucci waiting in reserve. This will be a well-marshalled side that will make itself very hard to beat. A long way from the disjointed farce that was the match against Slovakia in Johannesburg.
Daniele De Rossi will be Italy's key player. If you consider the troubles at Roma this season, with the implementation of a series of new systems by Luis Enrique, and the addition of young players to the squad, then De Rossi's steady performances have been sensational. There's nothing spectacular about him, but his positional awareness and mental strength make him look like a sixth former joining in a playground kickabout. He'll be Italy's leader and their driving force, and any injury or suspension that affects him should lead to us laying the men in blue. He'll be joined in the centre of midfield by another Juve pair, Andrea Pirlo and Claudio Marchisio, and that's a trio that I like. The accusation thrown at Pirlo is always that he can't run, but Arturo Vidal and Marchisio have done his running for him this season at Juve, allowing Pirlo to pass the opposition to death. Replace Vidal with De Rossi and you have the perfect midfield 3 for the 4-3-3 system that Prandelli likes.
The biggest questions, as always seems to be the case with the Italians, surround their forward options. Mario Balotelli is the highest profile name, and he'll certainly make the squad, but Balotelli's moods seem so impossible to calculate, that I won't be rushing to back him in the Italy top scorer market. Claudio Prandelli has already made it clear that he will wait for as long as possible to hear news of the fitness of both Giuseppe Rossi and Antonio Cassano. Rossi seems likely to make it, Cassano less so.
And that leaves a whole host of players who could be vying for a place in Prandelli's front 3. Simone Pepe of Juve will go, as will Inter's Giampaolo Pazzini, purely because he fulfils the "big guy" role, as does Alessandro Matri. Fabio Borini of Roma will sneak into the squad if he keeps up his current form, and may end up starting, while other names to consider are Roma's Osvaldo, Sebastian Giovinco of Parma, the old stagers Di Natale and Gilardino, and even the brilliant young Mattia Destro of Siena.
The confusion surrounding Italy's strikers leads us to a possible bet, and certainly something on which to keep an eye. Italy fit the profile of a team that will struggle to score goals, and yet give themselves a chance of progressing. And that's where closer inspection of their challenge at previous tournaments makes for interesting reading.
It's rare that the Azzurri produce a player with the profile of tournament top scorer, and it has generally only taken two goals to become Italy's top scorer at any given tournament. In the 2010 World Cup, there were four different goalscorers (including De Rossi) and three different players found the back of the net at Euro 2008. When Italy won the World Cup in 2006 there were NINE different goalscorers, and the two joint top scorers were the predictable Luca Toni and the outsider Marco Materazzi.
Italy only scored three goals in Euro 2004, with Cassano top man with two. In short, two goals may well be enough to be Italy's top scorer at Euro 2012, and even one may result in a share of the win. Balotelli will surely be favourite, Rossi possibly joint with him, and there may well be the chance to back one of the outsiders at a decent price.
Marchisio has been in surprising goalscoring form at Juve, De Rossi, even when he is deep lying, can hurt teams from set plays. And even a player like Antonio Nocerino, who will surely feature at some stage, will be worthy of consideration.
Italy's challenge won't be thrilling to watch, and the team is certainly still a work in progress, but they'll provide us with betting opportunities, and shouldn't be written off as potential winners. They have the class, but as ever with the Azzurri, it's cohesion which will either make them champions or cost them dearly.
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