BNP Paribas Open Men's Betting: Out of form Querrey worth taking on in Indian Wells

"Big Sam's results and the manner of his performances have been very poor lately and his often brittle confidence must be at a low ebb after losses to the likes of James Ward, Alex Bogomolov and Albert Ramos lately."

Back Kuznetsov +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.84/5

The tennis action in the Californian desert begins in earnest on Thursday, with the start of the men's first round at the BNP Paribas Open and Sean Calvert selects the best bets...

There are 16 first round matches scheduled for today at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, with play beginning at 7pm UK time.

Conditions here always play on the slow side for a hard court due to the gritty, Plexipave surface that fluffs up the balls and leads to the kind of high bounce that Rafa Nadal loves to encounter.

There's no Rafa today, but there are several opportunities for punters on Thursday, starting with a chance to take on the out of form Sam Querrey.

Big Sam's results and the manner of his performances have been very poor lately and his often brittle confidence must be at a low ebb after losses to the likes of James Ward, Alex Bogomolov and Albert Ramos lately.

He also dropped a set to world number 647 Tigre Hank in Acapulco in his only win since Melbourne and he faces Alex Kuznetsov at around 5am UK time tomorrow, who defeated Querrey in their most recent meeting on a hard court in Dallas a couple of years ago.

Kuznetsov is coming off the back of a good run in Memphis on indoor hard where he beat David Goffin and Mikhail Kukushkin and the +3.5 games on the handicap or lay of Querrey 2-0 look the options here.

At the more palatable time of around 9pm in the UK there's another clash of two American's between Michael Russell and Donald Young and I like the idea of backing the veteran vest-wearer in this one.

Russell has a pretty good record of 7-4 here at Indian Wells and the lack of pace in the courts should suit the more consistent player and Young's flashy style may not the best in these conditions.

The older American has won four of the last five and seven of their 11 match-ups and after a good run in Memphis, where he beat Lleyton Hewitt, Russell has endured tough three set losses to Radek Stepanek and John Isner and this looks a good opportunity to get back to winning ways.

Finally I like the idea of taking a chance on Dusan Lajovic at a tempting 2.56/4 against the often wildly errant Lukas Rosol when they meet for the first time at around 10.30pm UK time tonight.

The 23-year-old Serbian has broken into the top-100 recently and is on the upgrade, which he proved again in qualifying here with two wins achieved without dropping serve once and Rosol may also find it tough to break him.

Rosol is currently 68th on the list of return games won in 2014 - one ahead of John Isner - so he's unlikely to break often against a man in a good serving groove so the +2.5 games on Lajovic at 1.8 appeals here, as does the outright on the Serb.

As far as shorter-priced favourites are concerned today I like Santiago Giraldo and Lleyton Hewitt as the most reliable-looking two on Thursday.

Recommended Bets
Back Kuznetsov +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.84/5
Back Russell to beat Young at 1.9520/21
Back Lajovic +2.5 games to beat Rosol at 1.8

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Follow The Money: Fabalu there for the taking

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

"A winner of a five-runner affair last time, Fabalu needs to prove not just capable of overcoming the 5lb hike but also that the first-time blinkers employed in that race have the same affect today."

Two backs and one lay based on price movements on Betfair's price markets: one from Ascot and two from Doncaster are what we can look forward to...

We start with the first race of the day, the Amateur Riders' Handicap at 13.35, in which Kodicil has been quietly backed from [9.25] in to [7.4]. Perhaps the most eye-catching aspect of the selection is the jockey booking of Simon Walker. Not only the most successful of these pilots, Walker has ridden just six times for Tim Walford with one win, a second and two thirds resulting from those rides. Perhaps we should take the hint.

To Ascot now for our negative which comes in the shape of Fabalu in the 16:40, who has drifted from [3.15] out to [4.5]. A winner of a five-runner affair last time, Fabalu needs to prove not just capable of overcoming the 5lb hike but also that the first-time blinkers employed in that race have the same affect today. Donald McCain's charge may also not get things all his own way in front today and at the price on Fabalu is one that we can take on today.

For our final mover we return to Donny and the 17:05 in which Attenborough has cemented his place at the head of the market, having been supported from [3.7] in to [2.6]. In a three year old handicap full of unexposed sorts it usually pays to follow the market and with Attenborough holding the only Group 1 entry in this field (Irish 2,000 Guineas) it certainly appears that the colt may have got in light here off a mark of just 80.

Recommended Bets:

Back Kodicil @ [7.4] Doncaster 13:35
Lay Fabalu @ [4.5] Ascot 16:40
Back Attenborough @ [2.6] Doncaster 17:05

Two backs and one lay courtesy of our workaholic friends from Follow the Money. All based on price movements as per usual....

There's a northern flavour to today FTM with bets running at Wetherby and Newcastle...

A lay at Ffos Las and two Wolverhampton backs make up today's FTM selections...

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Rule, Britannia! Brits Taking Over WSOP (Again)

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 10 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

2010 was no fluke, it appears. After claiming five bracelets at last year's World Series of Poker -- the most by any country other than the United States -- U.K. players are proving themselves once more through the first 10 days of play at this year's WSOP. With just a dozen events completed, the Brits have already grabbed two bracelets, seats at nearly every final table thus far, and the increasing awe of many opponents and observers.

"Poker is too easy for the Brits," announcer Nick Wealthall tweeted earlier this morning. "They should make us play with one hole card."

Talk of a "British invasion" was a constant theme at last summer's WSOP. Claiming bracelets for the U.K. at the Rio in 2010 were Praz Bansi ($1,500 No-Limit Hold'em, Event No. 5), James Dempsey ($1,500 Pot-Limit Hold'em, Event No. 9), Richard Ashby ($1,500 Seven-Card Stud, Event No. 21), Mike Ellis ($1,500 No-Limit Hold'em, Event No. 30), and Steve Jelinek ($1,500 Pot-Limit Omaha/8, Event No. 41). And this year's fast start by the Brits has everyone sounding a similar theme.

Jake Cody and Matt Perrins have claimed bracelets thus far for the U.K. Cody secured his win in the $25,000 Heads-Up No-Limit Hold'em Championship (Event No. 2). As Matthew Pitt reports, Cody had to negotiate a virtual murderer's row of opponents to take the title, defeating (in order) Brandon Adams, Frank Kassela, Dani Stern, Jonathan Jaffe, Anthony Guetti, Gus Hansen, and Yevgeniy Timoshenko to win the $851,192 first prize.

Meanwhile, Perrins' victory came in the $1,500 Deuce-to-Seven Lowball Draw (No-Limit) event (Event No. 9), a game Perrins reportedly only learned hours before entering the tourney, his tutelage primarily consisting of a quick review of a YouTube video. "My friends talked me into it," Perrins told Arthur Crowson of PokerListings. "They said it was fun. So, I decided to give it a try. I guess that kind of went well." Perrins bested a field of 275 to claim the bracelet and a cool payday of $102,105. Click here for more on Perrins' win.

Interestingly, both Cody and Perrins hail from Rochdale of Greater Manchester, a market town with a population of less than 100,000. As Adam "Snoopy" Goulding reports over on the Black Belt Poker blog, the pair have been friends since they were kids, having grown up together.

Snoopy spoke with Londoner Nik Persaud about the pair, and he sheds some light on the two bracelet winners' relationship and how it has helped both improve their games. "I think that the fun bit of the story is that Jake will say that Matt is the biggest influence on his poker career and the person who he has learned the most from," Persaud told Snoopy. Meanwhile, "when Jake wins a title, a little bit of that is Matt," too.

"The level of respect for British players is currently sky high," adds Snoopy. "No longer is it considered an upset if we take down a big tournament." Indeed, in addition to the wins by Cody and Perrins, there have been a number of near-misses for U.K. players already this year, with some representation at all but a few final tables thus far.

Jonathan Spinks of Exeter finished 4th in Event No. 5, the $1,500 Seven-Card Stud event. Stephen Chidwick of Deal also took fourth in Event No. 7, the $10,000 Pot-Limit Hold'em Championship. Sadan Turker of West Kensington came up just short of a bracelet in Event No. 8, a $1,000 No-Limit Hold'em event, finishing runner-up to Sean Getzwiller.

The last few days have seen more Brits at final tables. Scottish player David Vamplew of Fife took fourth in the $1,500 No-Limit Hold'em Short-Handed event (Event No. 10). Watford's Richard Ashby nearly claimed himself another bracelet, taking fourth in the $10,000 Omaha/8 Championship (Event No. 11). And Richard Trigg of Sheffield took sixth last night in the $1,500 Triple Chance No-Limit Hold'em event (Event No. 12).

(Incidentally, the WSOP.com site lists a couple of other 2011 final tablists as U.K. players who may or may not rightly be included in the tallying of Brit successes. French-born Nicolas Levi finished sixth in Event No. 7, the $10,000 Pot-Limit Hold'em Championship, and Chris Bjorin of Sweden took second in the 2-7 No-Limit Draw event won by Perrin. Both currently live in London, and thus the British flag flies by their names in the results.)

How, then, to explain the Brits' success? Poker writer and commentator Jesse May -- interviewed here not long ago (Part 1, Part 2) -- is at the WSOP this summer and has been sharing some stellar commentary over on The Poker Farm website. In a recent piece, "Brits in Flow," May reflects on the camaraderie between the British players and what sounds like an unceasingly positive vibe surrounding them as perhaps contributing significantly to their success.

"It's not about the money, and it's not about showing up the Yanks," writes May. "It's unbridled joy, a love for the game." He goes on to discuss a special "spirit" -- occasionally fueled, perhaps, by the imbibing of spirits -- that has distinguished the British players during the first couple of weeks at the WSOP.

"It is this spirit that is in dark contrast to the hollow eyes and pained expressions of the zombies walking the halls," explains May. "It may look like a bunch of boys on the pis, but then you don't really understand. The attitude backs up the play, and the poker backs up the fun. And against this combo, how do the zombies with the straight lipped faces have any chance at all?"

Amid what has been an admittedly dark last couple of months for poker in America, May is clearly enjoying being able to bask in the mutually-supportive, optimistic light currently shining from the Brits. And he may well be on to something there, having identified the upbeat mindset of the U.K. players as possibly having produced a positive effect on their performance.

It will be interesting to see if the U.K. players continue to build on their fast start. Unless the WSOP takes up Wealthall on his suggestion to start handicapping the British players, it appears more likely than not we'll see the Brits continuing to rule.

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Follow The Money: Everyone's taking on Overdose

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

FTM have a couple of bets at Haydock - including going against the Budapest Bullet

"Matched at an early [2.84] the aptly named “Budapest Bullet” has drifted out to the [4.0] mark."

Today's Follow The Money comes from the cards at York and Haydock.

We start at Haydock with the lay of the day in the shape of Overdose in the 15:00. Matched at an early [2.84] the aptly named "Budapest Bullet" has drifted out to the [4.0] mark. A record of 15 wins from 16 races is difficult to crab but many of those contests in Europe were anything but competitive and Overdose will not have taken on as many sprinters of this quality before. If we also take into account the fact that he's prone to sweating up and that his owner has publicly stated that it will not be a disappointment if he does get beaten today as "he can always do better next time", Overdose looks the ideal candidate to take on today.

In the 15.40 at York, we have a big priced plunge to get stuck into in the shape of Secret Millionaire who has halved in price from [28.0] in to [13.0]. A meticulous placer of his horses, trainer Patrick Morris will know the time of day with a number of the fancied horses in this race following his seasonal debut over this course and distance. The selection has been dropped 1lb for that run which means that he is just a pound higher than his last winning mark of 87. The plunge this morning suggests that Secret Millionaire may be able to take advantage of what could just be a favourable weight today.

Our final mover comes back at Haydock, in the 16:40 in which Tariq Too has been supported from [9.0] in to [4.8]. With just seven career runs to date the colt is a novice compared to some of his competitors today (My Gacho for example has "been to the well" no less than 81 times) but the flip side is that he's more unexposed than most. A pleasing second last time at Ffos Las will have put him spot on for today's event and having already been placed at the course we have to hope that David Simcock's charge will go close today.

Recommended Bets
Lay Overdose @ [4.0] Haydock 15.00
Back Secret Millionaire @ [14.0] York 15.40
Back Tariq Too @ [4.8] Haydock 16.40

Today's selections come from Bath and Haydock....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Haydock and Southwell....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Goodwood and Kempton....

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England aren't taking Italy lightly so why are punters?

General / Ralph Ellis / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Italy boast the most experience pack in the Six Nations

"You can get around even money – the spread this morning was between [1.76] and [2.15] - backing Italy with a 22.5 point handicap."

Italy are improving with each Six Nations campaign and, following last year's close contest in Rome, Ralph Ellis wonders why the markets are offering such long odds on an Azzurri triumph at Twickenham.

When it comes to the Six Nations, we all expect Italy to be collecting the wooden spoon. Just to prove my point they are already installed as [1.47] favourites for the dubious honour. It's hardly surprising. It's where they have finished in all but three of the 12 seasons they've been in the competition. And in our minds they're still the new boys in a tournament that goes back, in one way shape or form, through 128 years of sporting history.

But there's a point when any set of boys start to become men. For instance it doesn't seem so long ago that the big cricketing nations were patting the heads of Sri Lanka and telling them to keep trying - only to wake up one morning and discover they'd invented the "pinch hitting" tactic that won them a World Cup. Some 15 years later they are quite rightly [6.0] second favourites to do it again.

As Italy begin their second decade in the Six Nations tournament there are signs that experience is beginning to pay. Ask Ireland, who needed a dramatic late Ronan O'Gara dropped goal to avoid leaving Rome's Stadio Flaminio on the wrong end of a defeat on Saturday afternoon.

Yet despite that promise, Betfair's early market seems to still be writing off Italy as hopeless minnows. England are as short as [1.03] to win at Twickenham on Saturday. And while, after the encouraging victory in The Millenium Stadium, there's no reason to think Martin Johnson's side won't follow that up with another win, there's equally no reason to think it will be easy.

You can get around even money - the spread this morning was between [1.76] and [2.15] - backing Italy with a 22.5 point handicap. That has to be great value, bearing in mind how England struggled to handle the Italian pack in Rome last year when they struggled to a 17-12 victory and couldn't even dominate the forward exchanges while Martin Castrogiovanni was sat in the sin bin. The return this year of talismanic number eight Sergio Parisse will simply make the Italians stronger.

England's forwards coach John Wells is wary of the threat posed by the most experienced scrum in the competition, with an average of 53 caps between them. "Sometimes you have to win ugly," he's told the Daily Telegraph's Mick Cleary this morning. "They are extremely dogged and very, very difficult to break down. We always get pilloried when we play them, and then everybody else has the same trouble."

That hardly sounds like a man planning a free flowing, expansive strategy to get Chris Ashton running in half a dozen tries. What it does say is that England are taking the threat posed by the Six Nations "new boys" extremely seriously. Maybe it is time we punters began to do the same.

Five things you might not know about Martin Castrogiovanni

1. Born October 1981 in the Argentine city of Parana, his mum wouldn't let him play the rough sport of rugby so he played basketball for local club Atletico Echague until he was 18 - when he was banned for pushing the referee

2. His grandfather was from Sicily. Within a year of taking up rugby he moved to Italy to play for Ghial Calvisano. He was fast tracked straight into the Italian Six Nations squad

3. The Italian restaurant he owns in Leicester - called Timo - has just opened a new branch

4. He's got a dog called fatty - it's a British bulldog. "He's not fat, I just call him that because it's what people called me"

5. His fiancée Giulia Candiago is a member of the Italian skiing team

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