US Politics 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 05 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Some of America's key political battlegrounds vote on Super Tuesday
"If Romney wins, he will have the candidacy all but sewn up. Victory for Santorum, however, could signal a reversal of momentum that transforms the race."
The race for the Republican nomination goes into overdrive on Tuesday - will Mitt Romney seal the deal or will Messrs Santorum, Gingrich and Paul scupper him once again? Our own Paul - Krishnamurty - explains the complex voting process and selects the best bets...
It may seem like the Republican nomination race has been running for an eternity, but in numerical terms at least, we're only just getting started. Of the total 2,286 delegates up for grabs, only 317 have so far been awarded from the 12 states to have voted already. Ten more states decide on Tuesday, with a further 437 delegates in play. The various distinctions between each particular contest, types of delegate and process for distributing them is extremely complicated, so it may be best to refer to this comprehensive guide from the New York Times' Nate Silver. Here's the lowdown on Tuesday's ten contests.
Total Delegates: 66
Latest odds: Romney [1.3]. Santorum [4.3]
Of the ten states voting on Super Tuesday, Ohio is undoubtably the most significant for two reasons. First, with polls showing a virtual dead-heat, this is the contest into which Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have thrown the most resources. If the former wins, he will have his party's candidacy all but sewn up. A win for Santorum, however, could signal a reversal of momentum that transforms the longer race.
Secondly, this will probably be the most important swing state in November. Ohio has picked the last ten winning Presidents, so each candidate's ability to connect with it's rural, blue-collar inhabitants is deemed a useful guide to wider electorability. Fears that Romney does no such thing keeps Republicans strategists awake at night. Nevertheless, market moves in the wake of Romney's three key victories in Arizona, Michigan and Washington must offer them some relief. Previous polls showing double-digit leads for Santorum had seen the former Pennsylvania Senator's price collapse to [1.4], but with the gap now substantially reduced, Romney is back into [1.27].
Total Delegates: 49
Latest odds: Romney [1.01]. Paul [36.0]
Events in Virginia explain why Romney seems increasingly likely to win the nomination, despite many weaknesses and significant hostility from his party's base. Whereas Romney's massively funded campaign never stopped organising after defeat in 2008, his principal rivals only recently moved into first gear. Six months ago, few thought either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich was a front-line candidate or likely to be the standard-bearer of the right. Consequently, neither got enough signatures to ensure a place on this ballot, and a state that might otherwise have proved extremely difficult for Romney is now a certain victory, with only Ron Paul in opposition.
Total Delegates: 58
Latest odds: Santorum [1.65], Romney [2.5]
This Southern state is an absolute must-win for Santorum, although again his challenge seems to be losing momentum. Romney was always expected to struggle in this ultra-Conservative part of America, and Santorum looked a shoe-in at [1.2] just a week ago when polls showed him ahead by up to 21%. The most recent numbers show that lead reduced to just 4%, forcing his odds out to [1.65].
Total Delegates: 76
Latest odds: Gingrich [1.05], Romney [16.0]
Georgia offers the most delegates of any Super Tuesday state and, as Newt Gingrich's home state, seems likely to buck recent nationwide trends. As odds of [1.05] suggest, the former Speaker is expected to clean up and earn enough delegates to justify staying in the contest. Regrouping here has been the gameplan ever since losing Florida, although Newt wasn't counting on Santorum emerging to steal his thunder as the 'anti-Romney' in the meantime. Gingrich's route to the Presidency now seems extremely convoluted, relying on neither Romney or Santorum doing enough to be declared the wider 'winner' on Super Tuesday, which might then make his own campaign seem relevant again.
Total Delegates: 43
Latest odds: Santorum [1.18], Romney [8.0], Gingrich [8.0]
If the New York Times Primary Projections are to be believed, Oklahoma is Santorum's best chance of a Super Tuesday victory, estimated at 91%. The market agrees, with [1.18] his last price matched.
Total Delegates: 27
Latest odds: Romney [1.26], Paul [5.0], Santorum [8.2]
This is one of three minor caucuses where an almost total lack of polling makes it very hard to get a clear picture. Romney won here in an otherwise poor 2008 campaign so must be expected to do so again, but there is one potential complication. Alaska is Sarah Palin's state, and as the most prominent voice in the "Anyone but Romney" faction within the Tea Party, her intervention could make a difference. On the other hand, her term as Governor was so controversial that her relevance and popularity should not be taken as a given.
Total Delegates: 32
Latest odds: Romney [1.03], Paul [26.0], Santorum 65.0]
Similarly, a lack of polling makes Idaho hard to predict. Arguably the best guide is the strength of each candidate's organisation. Santorum and Gingrich lack the resources to fight far beyond their main targets, so are unlikely to trouble Romney's super-rich campaign in this type of contest. However, Ron Paul has made targetting the caucuses his central strategy, and the advantage of his supporters' presence could potentially pull off a shock somewhere. Given that Paul won a Straw Poll in Idaho, this looks as likely as anywhere.
Total Delegates: 28
Latest odds: Romney [1.25], Santorum [6.2], Paul [8.0]
Again it's hard to get a clear picture of opinion in this state, although the fact Romney won here in 2008 should bode well for his chances. So must the endorsement of popular former Governor, Senator John Hoeven.
Total Delegates: 41
Latest odds: Romney [1.01], Santorum [65.0], Paul [65.0]
This is the state where Romney was formerly Governor, so anything other than an easy win would represent an enormous shock.
Total Delegates: 17
Latest odds: Romney [1.05], Santorum [10.0]
Likewise this neighbouring state, historically one of the America's most moderate, is safe Romney country and unlikely to offer much in the way of betting interest.
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