Road to the Kentucky Derby: The Churchill Downs dozen

World Racing / Timeform / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Who will you side with on May 5?

"Union Rags has been an impressive winner of 4 of 5 starts, beating News Pending by easy 4 lengths in G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February..."

Timeform bring you their latest update on the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5...

UNION RAGS Timeform Rating 124p, Trainer M Matz
Impressive winner of 4 of 5 starts, beating News Pending by easy 4 lengths in G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February, and is the top-rated 3-y-o male in North America. Wide throughout and probably unlucky in only defeat, at Breeders' Cup. Sprinting/miling pedigree but already stays 8.5f. May next run in 9f Florida Derby back at Gulfstream on March 31.

HANSEN Timeform Rating 123, Trainer M Maker
Won all 3 starts at 2 yrs, culminating in narrow defeat of Union Rags in Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Back to best when landing G3 Gotham at Aqueduct in March comfortably by 3 lengths from My Adonis, giving weight all round. Front-runner prior to last time, when tracked until going on 2f out. May next take in 9f Wood Memorial (a race his sire Tapit won, though dam was a sprinter) at Aqueduct on April 7.

CREATIVE CAUSE Timeform Rating 121, Trainer M Harrington
Winner of 4 of 7 starts, notably G1 Norfolk at Santa Anita at 2 yrs, when also third to Hansen and Union Rags in Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Back to best when giving weight and beating to Bodemeister in G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita in March. Son of Giant's Causeway and better prospects than some of staying beyond 8.5f. May next contest Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

SECRET CIRCLE Timeform Rating 121, Trainer B Baffert
Fast juvenile, unbeaten in 3 starts, notably Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. Stretched out to around 8f this year, beaten narrowly on first occasion and winning narrowly at Oaklawn in G3 Southwest and G2 Rebel since. Gave weight all round when holding Optimizer by three-quarters of a length last time. Some encouragement from breeding that he could stay further (sire gained biggest win at 9.5f). Could be aimed at G1 Arkansas Derby, again at Oaklawn, on April 14.

GEMOLOGIST Timeform Rating 119p, Trainer T Pletcher
Unbeaten in 3 starts at 2 yrs, notably G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over 8.5f at Churchill Downs, and one this year. Beat Currency Swap impressively by 7 lengths in allowance at Gulfstream in March. Son of Tiznow, and seems a likely stayer at 10f in same colours as 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. Likely to return to Graded company in G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.

OPTIMIZER Timeform Rating 117, Trainer D Lukas
Maiden at Saratoga at 2 yrs has been sole win from 8 starts, but has kept good company, and made eye-catching late headway when close second to Secret Circle in G2 Rebel at Oaklawn last time (rated 4 lb better than result). Son of 12f Breeders' Cup Turf winner English Channel, and should be suited by at least 10f himself. Needs much greater earnings to make Kentucky Derby field, and may take on Secret Circle again in G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on April 14.

EL PADRINO Timeform Rating 116, Trainer T Pletcher
Won 1 from 3 as a juvenile and both starts this year, notably G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds last time by nose from Mark Valeski. Son of Kentucky Derby fourth Pulpit and shapes as if will stay beyond 9f himself. May reportedly clash with Union Rags in Florida Derby next.

HOWE GREAT Timeform Rating 116, Trainer G Motion
Unbeaten in 4 runs since debut second, defeating Dullahan by length in G3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream last time, in March. Best efforts on turf to date. Son of smart Japanese miler Hat Trick but has already shown stays 9f. May next take in G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 14, as did connections' Animal Kingdom on way to Kentucky Derby success in 2011.

BODEMEISTER Timeform Rating 115, Trainer B Baffert
All 3 runs at Santa Anita, debuting in January then winning maiden by over 9 lengths. Ran Creative Cause (who conceded 5 lbs) to three-quarters of a length in G2 San Felipe in March. Son of Belmont winner Empire Maker and smart US 2-y-o Untouched Talent, and seems a likely stayer at beyond 8.5f.

DULLAHAN Timeform Rating 115p, Trainer D Romans
Only win from 6 appearances at 2 yrs was in G1 Futurity at Keeneland by three-quarters of a length from Majestic City. Fourth to Hansen in Breeders' Cup Juvenile on final outing. Encouraging length second to Howe Great in G3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream on return on turf in March, staying on well. Half-brother to a Kentucky Derby winner in Mine That Bird and looks open to improvement at further than 9f. Being aimed at G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 14.

ALPHA Timeform Rating 113, Trainer K McLaughlin
Won 1 out of 3 at 2 yrs and both this term, most recently G3 Withers at Aqueduct in February by three-and-a-quarter lengths from Speightscity. Behind Union Rags the two times they met, though presumably wasn't himself in Breeders' Cup. By Bernardini, out of 11.5f winner from the family of Swain, and seems near certain to stay the 10f Derby distance, having so far tried no further than 8.5f. Owned by Godolphin. Being aimed at Florida Derby on March 31 or G2 Louisiana Derby day after.

PROSPECTIVE Timeform Rating 113, Trainer M Casse
Has won 4 of 7 starts, notably G2 Tampa Bay Derby last time (when first-time blinkered) by three-quarters of a length from Golden Ticket. Son of Malibu Moon, and has yet to try further than 8.5f. May next take in Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.

Kentucky Derby Diary:
Saturday March 24: G3 Spiral Stakes, Turfway Park 9f;
Sunday March 25: G3 Sunland Derby 9f;
Saturday March 31: G1 Florida Derby, Gulfstream 9f.

The records keep tumbling for crack filly Mosheen who overcame difficulties last Saturday to win the G1 Randwick Guineas over 1600m at headquarters......

So You Think is set to be among the field for the Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday March 31.......

Plenty of runners in Ireland this Sunday and Timeform's Irish team have win selections from Limerick and Navan....

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Kentucky Derby: Union Rags now clear favourite for May classic

News / Timeform / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Union Rags during a workout

"Timeform has increased Union Rags' rating from 123 to 124..."

Union Rags has shortened markedly in the ante-post betting for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5, following his authoritative success in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Sunday.

The Michael Matz-trained colt is [4.1] from around [10.0] on Betfair for the Kentucky Derby, with a double-figure or bigger price on offer about all other named contenders.

Union Rags, winner of four of his five races, accounted for News Pending comfortably by four lengths, with the previously unbeaten Discreet Dancer fading into third. The much-touted Algorithms was a late scratch due to a setback.

Timeform has increased Union Rags' rating from 123 to 124, which puts him 6 lb and more ahead of his likely rivals and just 2 lb behind the average rating achieved by Kentucky Derby winners in the last five years.

Matz, who won the big one in 2006 with Barbaro, indicated that he was likely to aim Union Rags at the $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby, over 9 furlongs and back at Gulfstream, on March 31.

In the meantime, look out for Timeform's new "Road To The Kentucky Derby" feature, with rolling biographies of the leading contenders, starting on these pages later this week.

With opposition to reigning champion Quevega thin on the ground, Emma Lavelle is keen to run Kentford Grey Lady in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham......

Timeform review a weekend featuring a win for Nacarat in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton alongside a whole host of Cheltenham pointers......

Kauto Star is reported to be in tremendous shape ahead of his bid for a third Cheltenham Gold Cup success on Friday February 16....

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Simon Rowlands: Kentucky Derby blog

USA / Simon Rowlands / 05 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Uncle Mo: Can he bounce back from the Wood Memorial?

"Finding the winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby is a bit like one of those Agatha Christie murder-mysteries. You know: one of those in which, by a process of elimination, you come to the conclusion that no-one could possibly have done it. Or, in this case, will do it."

Simon Rowlands sifts through the clues to come up with some Kentucky Derby wagers

Finding the winner of this year's Kentucky Derby is a bit like one of those Agatha Christie murder-mysteries. You know: one of those in which, by a process of elimination, you come to the conclusion that no-one could possibly have done it. Or, in this case, will do it.

Many of the chief suspects have fallen by the wayside in recent months, while the long-time obvious "fit" on profiling - Uncle Mo - has now secured himself a cast-iron alibi with a shock defeat in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time up and a draw out in the car park. There is even, at the time of writing, some doubt as to his running.

Have people written off Uncle Mo prematurely? Well, it is certainly possible. He was a brilliant two-year-old, easily the best of these judged on his Breeders' Cup Juvenile win, and he was reported to have been off colour at Aqueduct.

But that was just four weeks ago, and there has always been a slight doubt as to whether he would cope with this still longer distance in a race which tends to be run at an unforgiving pace. I am one who has put a line through Uncle Mo, but not with great conviction. Ultimately, however, his odds seem pretty skinny given what happened last time.

Uncle Mo's best Timeform rating of 127 would win him an average Kentucky Derby, but everything else needs to improve several pounds, if not more, for the same to be said of them.

Dialed In is favourite following his win in the Florida Derby last month, but almost by default. He accounted for Shackleford by just a head that day, and Shackleford can be backed at big odds now. Sectional analysis suggests the race panned out nicely that day for a horse with Dialed In's come-from-behind style, but at least it is not hard to see something similar happening again at the weekend.

Other major trial winners include Archarcharch (Arkansas Derby, but beaten in three of his five previous outings), the wonderfully-named Pants On Fire (Louisiana Derby following a string of defeats) and Mucho Macho Man (Risen Star Stakes, since when he's made it six losses from eight appearances). And let's not forget the Aidan O'Brien-trained Master of Hounds, beaten just a nose by the smart Khawlah in the UAE Derby and arguably the most legitimate foreign hope in years.

It is possible to see one or more of them getting into the shake-up, on a good day, but it is difficult to see any of them winning.

Sherlock Holmes once famously said: "when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

It is nothing like that cut and dried where the Kentucky Derby is concerned, but there are a couple of horses that I find it impossible to eliminate. They are, to extend the metaphor to near-breaking point, the equivalent of spotting the butler shifting nervously from one foot to another or a chance discovery of Colonel Mustard in the library trying to stuff a piece of lead piping down the back of the sofa.

Firstly, there's Nehro, unrecognisable from the horse who finished tailed off in a maiden in January when a strong-finishing second in the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbys. He is going the right way, and the longer trip should suit him very well.

Then there's Midnight Interlude, like Nehro a late-starter, but winner of the Santa Anita Derby last time on just his fourth lifetime start. Midnight Interlude has a bit of early toe, and that could keep him out of trouble in what is often a roughhouse of a contest.

Those two would be my "most wanted" for Exacta tickets, while Dialed In should be included for Trifecta purposes.

The big race is due off at 23:24 BST on Saturday and will be covered live on Betfair and on Timeform Radio.

Before then, the fillies get their turn on Friday in the Kentucky Oaks (off at 22:45 BST and again on Timeform Radio and Betfair). This looks a bit easier to figure out than the Derby and I am hopeful that Zazu will oblige.

Zazu has locked horns with Turbulent Descent on her last two starts and may even find this an easier task with that high-class rival absent. She has a couple of decisions over Plum Pretty to her name, and that filly - a 25-length winner last time - may give her the most to do now.

The spotlight falls on Churchill Downs this weekend and Simon Bray is boldly opposing some short-priced runners at the top of the Kentucky Derby market......

The Timeform US team have come up with a couple to back tonight, as well as one to lay.......

With only a few days to go before the 137th running of the Oaks, Simon Bray reports from Stateside on a major development and selects his top five runners for the big race......

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US Racing: Simon Bray's guide to the Kentucky Oaks

USA / Simon Bray / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Simon be jumping for Joy after the Oaks?

"Joyful Victory will be the key to all our Oaks wagers."

With only a few days to go before the 137th running of the Oaks, Simon Bray reports from Stateside on a major development and selects his top five runners for the big race...

Early Monday morning, it was announced that R Heat Lightning, a horse that may have gone to the post as the favorite, was withdrawn due to a knee injury. It is important in these last few days to pay attention to the final works and last minute preparations before we make our final decisions when the fields are eventually set.

Even though a deep field is expected when entries are drawn later this week, it now appears that Joyful Victory will assume the favorite's role. She is the filly to beat in the Oaks. She had her last major prep work on May 1 and worked incredibly well over the wet Churchill surface. With a long range forecast for some rain on Oaks day, but clear and dry on Derby day, it was important to see that Joyful Victory could handle a wet racetrack and she proved she could. She will be the key to all our Oaks wagers.

Zazu worked this past Saturday morning in California, pleasing her trainer John Sadler. Speaking to me on Sunday, he said, "Everything is going to plan and I am very happy with her." The last major hurdle left for Zazu is the flight to Kentucky.

Bob Baffert trainee Plum Pretty worked over a wet surface on April 27 at Churchill Downs. "The track was in pretty good shape today," Baffert said. "The last time I worked these horses, it didn't rain enough and the track was sort of drying out heavy and mucky. I was really happy with the way they worked today because they went over it well." Martin Garcia will ride the filly and try to give Baffert his second victory in the race after the great Silverbulletday won in 1999.

With the defection of R Heat Lightning, trainer Todd Pletcher may be represented by Her Smile who was purchased a couple of weeks ago by celebrity chef Bobby Flay. Her participation was still in limbo this past weekend but, now that her stable mate is withdrawn, it seems more likely that she will run. Although winless this year, she's coming into this race with an improving pattern. Bobby Flay has already "tweeted" this week that he is excited for the Kentucky Oaks, so expect to see her in the field.

Daisy Devine had her final work on May 2 over the Louisville surface. "Perfect," trainer Andrew McKeever said after the exercise: "I told the rider to let her do what she wants to do. I wanted a little decent work because she's going to have to run hard and she looked good. She really quickened up at the eighth pole when he asked her to, so it was perfect. And she came back happy. We were just looking to keep her focused and try to keep her sweet and happy until she runs," Daisy Devine was the winner of the Fair Ground Oaks in her last start and has won three races from five starts.

With most of the major contenders having put the finishing touches to their preparations, it seems likely we will have a full field (around 13 or 14 horses). Entrants will be drawn Tuesday morning after which we can put together our final plays for the big day.

Here are my top five contenders:

1. Joyful Victory
2. Zazu
3. Kathmanblu
4. Plum Pretty
5. Daisy Devine

The spotlight falls on Churchill Downs this weekend and Simon Bray is boldly opposing some short-priced runners at the top of the Kentucky Derby market......

The Timeform US team have come up with a couple to back tonight, as well as one to lay.......

A winning play at [7.4] on Friday boosted the US team's bank, and all three of today's selections are win bets.......

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US Racing: Simon Bray's guide to the Kentucky Derby

USA / Simon Bray / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Beautiful Churchill Downs - what we'd give to be there Saturday!

"From a wagering stand point, there's nothing better than taking a stand against short- priced horses and I will do that on Saturday."

The spotlight falls on Churchill Downs this weekend and Simon Bray is boldly opposing some short-priced runners at the top of the Kentucky Derby market...

Champion two-year-old Uncle Mo was diagnosed with a gastrointestinal infection after his first ever defeat in the Wood Memorial. While this could have been a legitimate excuse, I just don't buy it. I do not think he can go the one-and-a-quarter miles of the Kentucky Derby. He will still attract plenty of support because of his lofty status as a future super star and the fact his exuberant owner Mike Repole said: "If he is not the favorite Derby Day, I will make him the favorite."

From a wagering stand point, there's nothing better than taking a stand against short- priced horses and I will do that on Saturday. His last work was in company with his stable-mate Stay Thirsty who will also run in the Derby. Todd Pletcher, who trains both colts, called the moves "a textbook-kind of work, both seemed to handle the going well and It indicates that both horses are fit and coming up to this in good order."

If Uncle Mo does not assume the favorite's role, that will be taken by Florida Derby winner Dialed In. He is another short-priced horse that I will play against. I was not impressed with his race in Miami. He has trained under the radar at a training centre in South Florida away from all the press and hustle and bustle of Churchill Downs

The question that will remain in the minds of most handicappers, however, is will one serious half-mile workout in five weeks be enough to get him ready on Derby Day?
Two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Nick Zito, for one, thinks it is. "It's the everyday training that we do with this horse that does it, not the works," he said. "This is a very rippled horse. He's conditioned unbelievably. This horse will not be short. I can't guarantee anything else. I can't guarantee he'll win. That's up to you know who. But I can guarantee he'll come with his run and he won't be short."

He added: "This (training in Florida) is a good warm-up for what we'll be going into next week up there. Remember, he's a lightly-raced horse that we've been kind of babying up to this point. He's a happy horse down here and I like the track. You have to be careful you don't go over the edge, but he's ready now to peak on the right day. If he has a good week, he'll be a serious horse a week from Saturday."

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert didn't get the dry track he wanted for Midnight Interlude's final serious work prior to the Derby. But the lightly raced three-year-old turned in the fastest time among seven workers at five furlongs on May 2 but the trainer added that he didn't learn a lot from Midnight Interlude's breeze because of the track's wet condition.

"When you're working in the slop like this, the only thing you get out of it is that 'he went well; he came out of it well,' " Baffert said. "You can't grade a work and say, 'Oh, its fantastic' because it's in slop. I can't do anything about it, so I just have to deal with it. If it rains (on Derby Day), at least we've been over a wet track. I know one day when it was dry here and he galloped over it, he looked really good."

Midnight Interlude has raced only four times in his career and he didn't make his debut until January of this year. His lack of experience showed during the work, according to Baffert.

"He's still green and he's still learning how to run," the trainer said. "Once he got in front of his workmate, he wanted to shut it down a little bit. He's still figuring it out."

Trainer Eddie Kenneally did not waste any time getting Santiva to the track at Churchill Downs on the morning of Monday, May 2, as he was one of the first horses out when the track opened for training at 17:45. "He finished up well with his workmate just like I wanted," Kenneally said. "We're less than a week out from the race so it's more maintenance and you're not looking for anything special. I thought he went very well."

The improving Nehro worked for trainer Steve Asmussen over the same sloppy surface. "It went nice and smooth," Asmussen said. "Didn't do a lot with him at all; Saturday will be three races in six weeks and we just hope he continues to progress. Obviously it's a big assignment, but the mile-and-a-quarter suits him. I think we're just letting him be happy. The horse hasn't always been a big work horse; I think the progression's been pretty slow. He took a big step from his maiden race to the Louisiana Derby."

Finally, Trainer Kathleen O'Connell said she hopes the rain that fell on Louisville this weekend will end in time for the Derby. O'Connell, who trains Watch Me Go, said he despised wet and muddy tracks. The trainer sent the colt to Churchill Downs to breeze early on Monday, following a horrendous thunderstorm. After the work O'Connell said: "I just don't think he's as comfortable on an 'off' surface." With the forecast for no rain on Saturday Watch Me Go should have no excuse with the racing surface. The only excuse he may have is that he is not good enough.

The draw for the Kentucky Derby takes place on Wednesday afternoon at Churchill Downs, after which we can finalise our selections. Post position can be make or break as evidenced last year when Lookin at Lucky, the best horse in the race, was compromised by a bad post and in turn a bad trip.

Here are my top five Kentucky Derby selections:

1. Nehro
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Archarcharch
4. Midnight Interlude T
5. Dialed In

The Timeform US team have come up with a couple to back tonight, as well as one to lay.......

With only a few days to go before the 137th running of the Oaks, Simon Bray reports from Stateside on a major development and selects his top five runners for the big race......

A winning play at [7.4] on Friday boosted the US team's bank, and all three of today's selections are win bets.......

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Timeform Radio Kentucky Derby Preview Podcast

USA / Joe Dyer / 22 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

There's no race quite like the Kentucky Derby

The Timeform Radio big guns come out for the big one with Paul Jacobs asking Kentucky Derby-related questions of TVG presenter and handicapper Rich Perloff, Timeform's head of handicapping for North America Simon Rowlands and Timeform's North American correspondent James Willoughby. And if that lot can't find you the winner, nobody can!

With no racing in the UK on Good Friday, there's no better time to check out Timeform's US Tips, which are still showing a healthy level-stakes profit*.......

Simon Rowlands explains why Good Friday needn't be a blank day on the racing front......

Two plays and a lay for Thursday from Timeform's profitable US service......

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