US Racing: Simon Bray's guide to the Kentucky Oaks

USA / Simon Bray / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Simon be jumping for Joy after the Oaks?

"Joyful Victory will be the key to all our Oaks wagers."

With only a few days to go before the 137th running of the Oaks, Simon Bray reports from Stateside on a major development and selects his top five runners for the big race...

Early Monday morning, it was announced that R Heat Lightning, a horse that may have gone to the post as the favorite, was withdrawn due to a knee injury. It is important in these last few days to pay attention to the final works and last minute preparations before we make our final decisions when the fields are eventually set.

Even though a deep field is expected when entries are drawn later this week, it now appears that Joyful Victory will assume the favorite's role. She is the filly to beat in the Oaks. She had her last major prep work on May 1 and worked incredibly well over the wet Churchill surface. With a long range forecast for some rain on Oaks day, but clear and dry on Derby day, it was important to see that Joyful Victory could handle a wet racetrack and she proved she could. She will be the key to all our Oaks wagers.

Zazu worked this past Saturday morning in California, pleasing her trainer John Sadler. Speaking to me on Sunday, he said, "Everything is going to plan and I am very happy with her." The last major hurdle left for Zazu is the flight to Kentucky.

Bob Baffert trainee Plum Pretty worked over a wet surface on April 27 at Churchill Downs. "The track was in pretty good shape today," Baffert said. "The last time I worked these horses, it didn't rain enough and the track was sort of drying out heavy and mucky. I was really happy with the way they worked today because they went over it well." Martin Garcia will ride the filly and try to give Baffert his second victory in the race after the great Silverbulletday won in 1999.

With the defection of R Heat Lightning, trainer Todd Pletcher may be represented by Her Smile who was purchased a couple of weeks ago by celebrity chef Bobby Flay. Her participation was still in limbo this past weekend but, now that her stable mate is withdrawn, it seems more likely that she will run. Although winless this year, she's coming into this race with an improving pattern. Bobby Flay has already "tweeted" this week that he is excited for the Kentucky Oaks, so expect to see her in the field.

Daisy Devine had her final work on May 2 over the Louisville surface. "Perfect," trainer Andrew McKeever said after the exercise: "I told the rider to let her do what she wants to do. I wanted a little decent work because she's going to have to run hard and she looked good. She really quickened up at the eighth pole when he asked her to, so it was perfect. And she came back happy. We were just looking to keep her focused and try to keep her sweet and happy until she runs," Daisy Devine was the winner of the Fair Ground Oaks in her last start and has won three races from five starts.

With most of the major contenders having put the finishing touches to their preparations, it seems likely we will have a full field (around 13 or 14 horses). Entrants will be drawn Tuesday morning after which we can put together our final plays for the big day.

Here are my top five contenders:

1. Joyful Victory
2. Zazu
3. Kathmanblu
4. Plum Pretty
5. Daisy Devine

The spotlight falls on Churchill Downs this weekend and Simon Bray is boldly opposing some short-priced runners at the top of the Kentucky Derby market......

The Timeform US team have come up with a couple to back tonight, as well as one to lay.......

A winning play at [7.4] on Friday boosted the US team's bank, and all three of today's selections are win bets.......

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US Racing: Simon Bray's guide to the Kentucky Derby

USA / Simon Bray / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Beautiful Churchill Downs - what we'd give to be there Saturday!

"From a wagering stand point, there's nothing better than taking a stand against short- priced horses and I will do that on Saturday."

The spotlight falls on Churchill Downs this weekend and Simon Bray is boldly opposing some short-priced runners at the top of the Kentucky Derby market...

Champion two-year-old Uncle Mo was diagnosed with a gastrointestinal infection after his first ever defeat in the Wood Memorial. While this could have been a legitimate excuse, I just don't buy it. I do not think he can go the one-and-a-quarter miles of the Kentucky Derby. He will still attract plenty of support because of his lofty status as a future super star and the fact his exuberant owner Mike Repole said: "If he is not the favorite Derby Day, I will make him the favorite."

From a wagering stand point, there's nothing better than taking a stand against short- priced horses and I will do that on Saturday. His last work was in company with his stable-mate Stay Thirsty who will also run in the Derby. Todd Pletcher, who trains both colts, called the moves "a textbook-kind of work, both seemed to handle the going well and It indicates that both horses are fit and coming up to this in good order."

If Uncle Mo does not assume the favorite's role, that will be taken by Florida Derby winner Dialed In. He is another short-priced horse that I will play against. I was not impressed with his race in Miami. He has trained under the radar at a training centre in South Florida away from all the press and hustle and bustle of Churchill Downs

The question that will remain in the minds of most handicappers, however, is will one serious half-mile workout in five weeks be enough to get him ready on Derby Day?
Two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Nick Zito, for one, thinks it is. "It's the everyday training that we do with this horse that does it, not the works," he said. "This is a very rippled horse. He's conditioned unbelievably. This horse will not be short. I can't guarantee anything else. I can't guarantee he'll win. That's up to you know who. But I can guarantee he'll come with his run and he won't be short."

He added: "This (training in Florida) is a good warm-up for what we'll be going into next week up there. Remember, he's a lightly-raced horse that we've been kind of babying up to this point. He's a happy horse down here and I like the track. You have to be careful you don't go over the edge, but he's ready now to peak on the right day. If he has a good week, he'll be a serious horse a week from Saturday."

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert didn't get the dry track he wanted for Midnight Interlude's final serious work prior to the Derby. But the lightly raced three-year-old turned in the fastest time among seven workers at five furlongs on May 2 but the trainer added that he didn't learn a lot from Midnight Interlude's breeze because of the track's wet condition.

"When you're working in the slop like this, the only thing you get out of it is that 'he went well; he came out of it well,' " Baffert said. "You can't grade a work and say, 'Oh, its fantastic' because it's in slop. I can't do anything about it, so I just have to deal with it. If it rains (on Derby Day), at least we've been over a wet track. I know one day when it was dry here and he galloped over it, he looked really good."

Midnight Interlude has raced only four times in his career and he didn't make his debut until January of this year. His lack of experience showed during the work, according to Baffert.

"He's still green and he's still learning how to run," the trainer said. "Once he got in front of his workmate, he wanted to shut it down a little bit. He's still figuring it out."

Trainer Eddie Kenneally did not waste any time getting Santiva to the track at Churchill Downs on the morning of Monday, May 2, as he was one of the first horses out when the track opened for training at 17:45. "He finished up well with his workmate just like I wanted," Kenneally said. "We're less than a week out from the race so it's more maintenance and you're not looking for anything special. I thought he went very well."

The improving Nehro worked for trainer Steve Asmussen over the same sloppy surface. "It went nice and smooth," Asmussen said. "Didn't do a lot with him at all; Saturday will be three races in six weeks and we just hope he continues to progress. Obviously it's a big assignment, but the mile-and-a-quarter suits him. I think we're just letting him be happy. The horse hasn't always been a big work horse; I think the progression's been pretty slow. He took a big step from his maiden race to the Louisiana Derby."

Finally, Trainer Kathleen O'Connell said she hopes the rain that fell on Louisville this weekend will end in time for the Derby. O'Connell, who trains Watch Me Go, said he despised wet and muddy tracks. The trainer sent the colt to Churchill Downs to breeze early on Monday, following a horrendous thunderstorm. After the work O'Connell said: "I just don't think he's as comfortable on an 'off' surface." With the forecast for no rain on Saturday Watch Me Go should have no excuse with the racing surface. The only excuse he may have is that he is not good enough.

The draw for the Kentucky Derby takes place on Wednesday afternoon at Churchill Downs, after which we can finalise our selections. Post position can be make or break as evidenced last year when Lookin at Lucky, the best horse in the race, was compromised by a bad post and in turn a bad trip.

Here are my top five Kentucky Derby selections:

1. Nehro
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Archarcharch
4. Midnight Interlude T
5. Dialed In

The Timeform US team have come up with a couple to back tonight, as well as one to lay.......

With only a few days to go before the 137th running of the Oaks, Simon Bray reports from Stateside on a major development and selects his top five runners for the big race......

A winning play at [7.4] on Friday boosted the US team's bank, and all three of today's selections are win bets.......

Play Casino & Poker here