Formula One Betting: Time to back Button?

Formula One / James Frankland / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

"Over the last ten seasons, on seven occasions the winner of the Australian Grand Prix has been the eventual Championship victor, so the question to be asked is, will history repeat itself in 2012?"

Following a British victory in Australia, James Frankland considers the result as well as historical precedents to ask if it's time to back Jenson Button for the Drivers' Championship...

A recurring theme during commentary on the Australian Grand Prix was that, more often than not, the winner of this race goes on to win the Driver's World Championship. Here's what happened in recent years to see whether the outcome of Sunday's race means it's time to get behind Jenson in 2012.

2011
Australian GP Winner: Sebastian Vettel
Driver's Championship Winner: Sebastian Vettel

Defending champion Vettel kicked off his title defence in emphatic style, winning comfortably ahead of Lewis Hamilton's McLaren. It set the tone for a season of crushing dominance for the young German, who scored 15 pole positions and 11 wins to clinch his second consecutive title at the Japanese Grand Prix, four races before the end of the year.

2010
Australian GP Winner: Jenson Button
Driver's Championship Winner: Sebastian Vettel

Vettel led from pole on a wet track, but as the track dried Button's early switch to slick tyres brought him into contention and he inherited the lead when Vettel crashed out on lap 25. Button remained in contention for the title until the penultimate round but it was Vettel who took the championship in Abu Dhabi, winning a four-way fight with his teammate Mark Webber, Ferrari's Fernando Alonso and Button's McLaren stablemate Hamilton.

2009
Australian GP Winner: Jenson Button
Driver's Championship Winner: Jenson Button

Button led all 58 laps on his way to a debut victory for the Brawn team, created from the ashes of the Honda squad that struggled so badly in 2008. He went on to win six of the first seven races, and held onto his lead in the face of a determined fight from Vettel, clinching the title with a race to go at Interlagos in Brazil.

2008
Australian GP Winner: Lewis Hamilton
Driver's Championship Winner: Lewis Hamilton

Having come so close to winning the title in his rookie year, Hamilton went one better in 2008 and won in dominant style, leading all but five laps of the race. He would face strong competition for the championship from Ferrari's Felipe Massa all year, leading to that famous moment at the season finale in Brazil where Massa won, believing he had taken the title, only for Hamilton to pass Timo Glock's Toyota on the last corner to secure the two points he needed.

2007
Australian GP Winner: Kimi Raikkonen
Driver's Championship Winner: Kimi Raikkonen

2006
Australian GP Winner: Fernando Alonso
Driver's Championship Winner: Fernando Alonso

2005
Australian GP Winner: Giancarlo Fisichella
Driver's Championship Winner: Fernando Alonso

2004
Australian GP Winner: Michael Schumacher
Driver's Championship Winner: Michael Schumacher

2003
Australian GP Winner: David Coulthard
Driver's Championship Winner: Michael Schumacher

2002
Australian GP Winner: Michael Schumacher
Driver's Championship Winner: Michael Schumacher

Over the last ten seasons, on seven occasions the winner of the Australian Grand Prix has been the eventual Championship victor, so the question to be asked is whether history will repeat itself in 2012? There is no doubt McLaren have produced an extremely strong car - qualifying seven tenths ahead of the Red Bulls is testament to that - and Button himself is in a very good place, having fully integrated himself into what many were calling 'Team Hamilton' when it was revealed Jenson was joining McLaren from Brawn in 2009.

This season is going to be a very close one, and I doubt we will see Button romping off into the distance like Vettel did last year. The field spread is just too tight for it, but when you look at how much Button's value has reduced from [13.0] to [3.65] after Sunday's win, you'd have to say history favours the McLaren man.

It was a great opening race for Jenson Button and the McLaren team with first and third places. The British team now occupy favouritism for the Constructors' Championship and look set to play a big role in the Drivers' competition......

The first grand prix of the season takes place in Melbourne and McLaren have set down a marker for the campaign by taking the front two places on the grid. James Frankland can't see anyone other than Lewis or Jenson...

James Frankland continues his guide to making money on Formula One as he discusses technological innovation as well as the importance of weather and qualifying positions......

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F1 Odds: Button second favourite after Australia win

Formula One / Joe Dyer / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jenson enjoys his W

"At [3.65] Button, backed at [13.0] to win the title, is now slightly shorter than McLaren rival Hamilton ([4.0]). Vettel retains favouritism at [3.05] but it's some way off his market low of [1.99]."

It was a great opening race for Jenson Button and the McLaren team with first and third places. The British team now occupy favouritism for the Constructors' Championship and look set to play a big role in the Drivers' competition...

Jenson Button is [3.65] second favourite for the F1 Drivers' Championship after winning the season opener in Melbourne.

Starting second on the grid, the British driver overtook team-mate Lewis Hamilton at the first corner and drove on to an untroubled victory. Hamilton finished third, the victim of unlucky timing when the safety car was deployed which allowed Sebastian Vettel to gain vital seconds and eventually force himself between the McLaren drivers on the podium.

At [3.65] Button, backed at [13.0] to win the title, is now slightly shorter than McLaren rival Hamilton ([4.0]). Vettel retains favouritism at [3.05] but it's some way off his market low of [1.99]. Button finished runner-up to Vettel in last year's Championship.

McLaren's strong showing in Melbourne has also seen them assume favouritism in the Constructors' Championship, where they can be backed at [1.76]. Red Bull, for whom Mark Webber was fourth are available to back at [2.56].

The first grand prix of the season takes place in Melbourne and McLaren have set down a marker for the campaign by taking the front two places on the grid. James Frankland can't see anyone other than Lewis or Jenson...

James Frankland continues his guide to making money on Formula One as he discusses technological innovation as well as the importance of weather and qualifying positions......

With the season set to get under way in Australia this Sunday, James Frankland explains how to make money betting on Formula One......

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Japanese Grand Prix Betting: Get on the Button

Formula One / James Frankland / 08 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jenson Button is in good form

"There’s also value to be had in home favourite Kamui Kobayashi. Flashback to 2010 and you’ll recall the Japanese star bullying his way into the points with a series of gutsy overtakes, having started 14th."

James Frankland was up with the larks this morning to watch Japanese Grand Prix qualifying - having digested that (and his Weetabix) here's his assessment of the betting

The fact that qualifying proved to be any kind of contest at all was just the wake-up call I and many more millions, bleary-eyed and half-asleep, watching the session at 6am this morning needed.

Expecting a Red Bull march to the front of the grid, instead we got a titanic scrap between the blue cars from Milton Keynes and Woking's silver McLarens, with in-form man Jenson Button losing out to world champion-elect Sebastian Vettel by the narrowest of margins, just 0.009s.

Pole position could so easily have been Lewis Hamilton's, just the sort of tonic he needs after a difficult run of races, but he was let out of the garage just too late to start a final flying run and had to settle for third, alongside his sparring partner of recent weeks, Felipe Massa. The run to the first corner will be very interesting to watch tomorrow...

Vettel and Button are the only two drivers still contesting the world championship, but to even call it a contest is to vastly underrate the job the 24-year old German has done. If you're unaware of the maths, such is Vettel's lead that he only needs one point from the remaining five races to win his second consecutive title.

Button can only steal the crown if he wins all five remaining races, and then only if Vettel fails to finish each race. Given that Sebastian has finished every race in either first or second position, barring a fourth in mixed conditions in Germany, the odds are heavily stacked towards the 2011 world champion being crowned tomorrow.

Vettel's price of [1.76] reflect his favourite status, but Button's [4.9] represents strong value for the sport's current 'best of the rest' and I'd give him some consideration for tomorrow's race.

The track should suit the Red Bull, but Button has a knack of finding himself near the leader towards the end of the race - witness Singapore, where but for the duelling Williams pair Button would have had a clean run at Vettel over the last few laps, and finished less than two seconds behind him.

At the other end of the grid, Mercedes' Nico Rosberg finds himself in the unfamiliar environs of 23rd, having suffered with hydraulic problems during qualifying. You can bank on the team fixing these issues for the race and with a quick car underneath him Nico is a good shout for a points finish at [1.62].

There's also value to be had in home favourite Kamui Kobayashi. Flashback to 2010 and you'll recall the Japanese star bullying his way into the points with a series of gutsy overtakes, having started 14th. This year Kamui is 10th and so just has to maintain that position in order to score, so points at [1.85] are worth considering.

Recommended Bets
Sebastian Vettel to win @ [1.76]
Jenson Button to finish on the podium @ [1.67]
Nico Rosberg to score points @ [1.68]

The Force India cars both grabbed vital points at Singapore, but will they be able to repeat the feat at this weekend's Japanese GP? James Boswell thinks they might just manage it....

Ralph Ellis looks forward to Sunday's big race where he expects Sebastian Vettel to seal a second world title. However, don't write off his under-rated team-mate......

Sebastian Vettel won the Singapore Grand Prix from pole position and is the new World Champ, albeit not mathematically....

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