Formula One: Back Lewis Hamilton to win in China from pole position

"It is clearly a track which suits both Hamilton and Mercedes – Lewis has won here twice and finished on the podium in each of the past three seasons, whilst Nico Rosberg won his and the team’s first race here last year from pole position."

Lewis Hamilton has secured his first pole position in a Mercedes and looks to have a great chance in Shanghai, says James Frankland... 

His motivation and reasons for moving from McLaren to Mercedes have been debated at length since Lewis Hamilton announced he was to join the Silver Arrows this season, but in qualifying for the Chinese Grand Prix Hamilton secured pole position to underline the improvement Mercedes has made this year.

It is clearly a track which suits both Hamilton and Mercedes - Lewis has won here twice and finished on the podium in each of the past three seasons, whilst Nico Rosberg won his and the team's first race here last year from pole position. Hamilton is therefore well-placed to repeat the trick and his odds of victory at 3.259/4 offer better value than they might if Sebastian Vettel or Fernando Alonso were occupying pole position. If you're predicting a weekend of Hamilton domination, back him at 5.59/2 to take the win from pole position and set fastest lap on the way.

Alongside Lewis is Lotus driver Kimi Raikkonen, who didn't look especially fast throughout qualifying but banged in a time when it mattered most, just over a quarter of a second behind the Mercedes and marginally ahead of Ferrari's Fernando Alonso, with Rosberg fourth in the other Mercedes. Raikkonen 4.57/2 will be hoping to repeat his Melbourne trick of stopping one less time than his rivals and if he can achieve it, ought to be a strong contender for victory. You can also never discount Alonso - his Ferrari has looked quick all weekend, evidenced by Felipe Massa being right up there in the standings also - and offers a chance of a good return at 4.77/2 for victory in Shanghai on Sunday.

Red Bull opted for a contrary strategy with Sebastian Vettel, qualifying ninth on the medium tyres. They will hope this will pay off later in the race, by running longer than their soft tyre-shod rivals and switching onto the faster rubber late in the race, hoping to pick off any places in the process. It's risky, but ought to give Vettel a decent chance of a podium finish and he's worth backing at 1.9110/11. If you're feeling really brave then he's available at 6.86/1 for the win.

Check back later before deciding where to put your money in relation to Mark Webber, for the Aussie has yet to hear if he will start from the back of the grid after running out of fuel in second qualifying. In 2011 Mark went from 18th to third so if he ends up last, it's not beyond the realms of possibility he could snare a top six finish. At the moment his odds of 1.51/2 are based on his starting position of 14th, but will improve if, as seems likely, he'll be demoted for his fuel irregularity.

Paul di Resta should also be considered for a points finish at 1.738/11 - the Scotsman starts 11th with a free choice of tyres and, whichever strategy he chooses, needs to only make up one place in order to secure a point come the end of the race. He will probably be eyeing the Toro Rosso of Daniel Ricciardo, which qualified seventh but could fall backwards on race day.

Recommended Bets

Lewis Hamilton to win 3.259/4
Sebastian Vettel to finish on the podium 1.9110/11
Paul di Resta to finish in the points 1.738/11

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Formula One Result: Alonso seals shock win in rainy Malaysia

Formula One / Editor / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Alonso driving through the downpour

"Following his surprise victory, the Spaniard is [11.5] to be crowned champion at the end the season... "

Two-time champion overcomes problems with his car to pull off upset in Kuala Lumpur...

Fernando Alonso may have won a rain-soaked Malaysian Grand Prix but Betfair punters still don't fancy his chances of winning a third Drivers' Championship.

The Spaniard is [11.5] to be crowned champion at the end the season, following his surprise victory in Sunday's race.

Alsonso took charge after the Grand Prix was halted six laps in due to torrential downpour. He may struggle for points in dry conditions this season as the Ferrari's problems have been well-documented.

Sauber's Sergio Perez mounted a strong challenge which meant a thrilling end to the race as Alonso fought hard to hold off the Mexican. Lewis Hamilton, who started in pole position, finished third.

Alonso, who described his win as "a big surprise" now leads the championship by five points from Hamilton. The British driver is the favourite at [3.2], followed by Jenson Button, who finished 14th in Malaysia, at [3.9]. Last year's champions Sebastian Vettel, still winless after two races, trades at [3.95].

It's a British one two at the front of the grid with a former-champion lurking just behind. So does James Frankland anticipate another McLaren win in Sunday's Malaysian Grand Prix?...

Ralph Ellis said it last week when talking up the McLarens' chances and he says it again now in assessing Fernando Alonso: a great driver is all very well but, if the car isn't up to it, he won't win....

Following a British victory in Australia, James Frankland considers the result as well as historical precedents to ask if it's time to back Jenson Button for the Drivers' Championship......

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Formula One Betting: Time to back Button?

Formula One / James Frankland / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

"Over the last ten seasons, on seven occasions the winner of the Australian Grand Prix has been the eventual Championship victor, so the question to be asked is, will history repeat itself in 2012?"

Following a British victory in Australia, James Frankland considers the result as well as historical precedents to ask if it's time to back Jenson Button for the Drivers' Championship...

A recurring theme during commentary on the Australian Grand Prix was that, more often than not, the winner of this race goes on to win the Driver's World Championship. Here's what happened in recent years to see whether the outcome of Sunday's race means it's time to get behind Jenson in 2012.

2011
Australian GP Winner: Sebastian Vettel
Driver's Championship Winner: Sebastian Vettel

Defending champion Vettel kicked off his title defence in emphatic style, winning comfortably ahead of Lewis Hamilton's McLaren. It set the tone for a season of crushing dominance for the young German, who scored 15 pole positions and 11 wins to clinch his second consecutive title at the Japanese Grand Prix, four races before the end of the year.

2010
Australian GP Winner: Jenson Button
Driver's Championship Winner: Sebastian Vettel

Vettel led from pole on a wet track, but as the track dried Button's early switch to slick tyres brought him into contention and he inherited the lead when Vettel crashed out on lap 25. Button remained in contention for the title until the penultimate round but it was Vettel who took the championship in Abu Dhabi, winning a four-way fight with his teammate Mark Webber, Ferrari's Fernando Alonso and Button's McLaren stablemate Hamilton.

2009
Australian GP Winner: Jenson Button
Driver's Championship Winner: Jenson Button

Button led all 58 laps on his way to a debut victory for the Brawn team, created from the ashes of the Honda squad that struggled so badly in 2008. He went on to win six of the first seven races, and held onto his lead in the face of a determined fight from Vettel, clinching the title with a race to go at Interlagos in Brazil.

2008
Australian GP Winner: Lewis Hamilton
Driver's Championship Winner: Lewis Hamilton

Having come so close to winning the title in his rookie year, Hamilton went one better in 2008 and won in dominant style, leading all but five laps of the race. He would face strong competition for the championship from Ferrari's Felipe Massa all year, leading to that famous moment at the season finale in Brazil where Massa won, believing he had taken the title, only for Hamilton to pass Timo Glock's Toyota on the last corner to secure the two points he needed.

2007
Australian GP Winner: Kimi Raikkonen
Driver's Championship Winner: Kimi Raikkonen

2006
Australian GP Winner: Fernando Alonso
Driver's Championship Winner: Fernando Alonso

2005
Australian GP Winner: Giancarlo Fisichella
Driver's Championship Winner: Fernando Alonso

2004
Australian GP Winner: Michael Schumacher
Driver's Championship Winner: Michael Schumacher

2003
Australian GP Winner: David Coulthard
Driver's Championship Winner: Michael Schumacher

2002
Australian GP Winner: Michael Schumacher
Driver's Championship Winner: Michael Schumacher

Over the last ten seasons, on seven occasions the winner of the Australian Grand Prix has been the eventual Championship victor, so the question to be asked is whether history will repeat itself in 2012? There is no doubt McLaren have produced an extremely strong car - qualifying seven tenths ahead of the Red Bulls is testament to that - and Button himself is in a very good place, having fully integrated himself into what many were calling 'Team Hamilton' when it was revealed Jenson was joining McLaren from Brawn in 2009.

This season is going to be a very close one, and I doubt we will see Button romping off into the distance like Vettel did last year. The field spread is just too tight for it, but when you look at how much Button's value has reduced from [13.0] to [3.65] after Sunday's win, you'd have to say history favours the McLaren man.

It was a great opening race for Jenson Button and the McLaren team with first and third places. The British team now occupy favouritism for the Constructors' Championship and look set to play a big role in the Drivers' competition......

The first grand prix of the season takes place in Melbourne and McLaren have set down a marker for the campaign by taking the front two places on the grid. James Frankland can't see anyone other than Lewis or Jenson...

James Frankland continues his guide to making money on Formula One as he discusses technological innovation as well as the importance of weather and qualifying positions......

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Malaysian Grand Prix: Hamilton not far from a winning formula

Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 05 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Anthony and Lewis have made their peace

"If the Australian Grand Prix was about the car – so Vettell won because his was quickest – then this week in Sepang will be much more to do with the driver."

While other stars whinge and curse, Lewis Hamilton is showing remarkable signs of maturity, says Ralph Ellis. But can he follow up his impressive performance in Australia with a win at Sepang this weekend?

I don't know about you, but I get fed up hearing about the pressure of being a superstar. People say that's why Wayne Rooney is so angry. They tell you it's why Tiger Woods can be the most surly man on a golf course. But frankly it's a lot of old nonsense.

Faced with an intrusive media, a public that wants to share every moment, and 'experts' who want to criticise your every move you can spend your time feeling resentful or you can relax, accept it's part of the price of fame and fortune, and share your life with the people who are paying your huge wages.

Encouragingly, it's a lesson that Lewis Hamilton seems to be learning. A couple of years ago you worried he was in overdrive heading towards the 'me, me, me' syndrome, but thankfully he appears to be growing up. As an example he slipped quietly into Brands Hatch at the weekend to watch younger brother Nicolas make his motor racing debut, and left little trace - apart from a lot of smiling faces.

You have to respect his enthusiasm for both his family and his sport. He had to fly 14,000 miles in between the Australian Grand Prix and Malaysia this weekend to give moral support to 19-year-old Nic, who suffers from cerebral palsy. And he hit a nice balance of not trying to hog the limelight from his kid brother, but accepting he couldn't be a recluse either and talking briefly to the media. "I am just incredibly proud. I was smiling the whole way through the race," he said.

Hamilton's enthusiasm for watching Renault Clio racing is a sign of the big moves he's made to sort his life out away from the track. He made peace with his dad while they were in the pits at Melbourne, too, and it won't do his performances any harm when he does get back behind the wheel this week.

If the Australian Grand Prix was all about the car - so Sebastian Vettell won because his was quickest - then this week in Sepang will be much more to do with the driver. Pirelli's boss Paul Hembery says the new tyres he's supplied will degrade far more quickly in the heat, so not even Sauber's rookie Mexican driver Sergio Perez, who drove Melbourne on just one change of tyres , will be able to finish in less than three pit stops. And the weather forecast says showers are probable.

Vettel's dominance - he's three wins on the bounce now including the back end of last season - means Hamilton's price has slid out to [5.9] to win in Malaysia. If he lands that he could give himself, and anybody brave enough to back him, plenty more to smile about.

Five things you might not know about Sergio Perez

1. Born January 1990 in Guadalajara, his father was a racing driver who also managed the career of Mexican Adrian Fernandez

2. He was six when he first tried go-karting and admits he cried because he was scared. Brother Antonio - now a NASCAR driver - laughed at him, as big brothers do, so he stuck with it and by the end of the day had fallen in love with driving

3. After winning karting titles in Mexico and America he moved to Germany aged 15 where he lived in a small room above a Bavarian restaurant.

4. His career has been supported by the family of Mexican Telcoms tycoon and businessman Carlos Slim, the world's richest man estimated to be worth more than 14 billion pounds

5. From a religious family, he races wearing a Jesus bracelet his grandmother gave him, and says he prays before each start "not to be safe, but to win"

James Frankland on what we know so far about the different cars ahead of the first race of the season....

You'll be able to read articles about every Grand Prix of 2011 on Betting.Betfair as well as a comprehensive, up-to-the-minute race preview when qualifying has finished. For now, here's a quick update on the latest Championship odds....

Rule changes, less durable tyres and Lewis Hamilton's battle with his ailing McLaren mean that the Formula 1 2011 season will involve all the drama and more of last year, says Ralph Ellis. That's why Sebastien Vettel is too short...

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Formula One: Ecclestone wants rain but Lewis faces pain

Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is Hamilton being overly optimistic?

"Hamilton talked of McLaren closing the gap, there's a real danger that Red Bull will start the season with a run of victories which will make them too hard to catch... "

Bernie Ecclestone's latest idea may be a short-lived gimmick but Ralph Ellis fears that Lewis Hamilton could face more enduring problems with his new car...

Clearly Bernie Ecclestone has got his months muddled up. Yesterday was March 1 and he obviously felt it was April. I can't see any other reason behind his latest idea for trying to make Formula One more interesting.

Bernie was perhaps thinking out loud while he was watching Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton show off McLaren's new road car on a sleety track in Surrey. But the man with the marketing brains behind modern Grand Prix racing is suggesting having sprinklers to produce artificial rain in the middle of races.

"We always have exciting races in the rain, so let's think of making it rain," he suggested. "You could have a 20 minute spell in the middle of the race, or near the end with 10 laps to go. It would guarantee suspense."

Yes, Bernie, but so would putting Ashley Cole on one of the bends with his air rifle to see how many of the cars he could hit - or having a Ford Sierra towing a caravan round the track at the same time as everybody else was racing.

Arguably the only people who would welcome Bernie's hair-brained scheme would be the McLaren team because Hamilton is almost always the best bet when real rain affects a race. It seems to bring out his natural flair for driving - last year's triumph at the Belgian Grand Prix was an absolute master class in dealing with difficult conditions.

Hamilton certainly needs something. He's [6.6] third favourite for this year's drivers' championship, but the signs are that's far too short and a good opportunity to lay. While his McLaren masters were very proudly showing off their new road toy, the latest model for the track appears to be way off the pace. Meanwhile, the new Red Bull to be driven by reigning champion Sebastian Vettel has performed superbly in testing to make the German the [3.8] favourite to retain his title.

More worrying for Hamilton is that on the tests so far, it is not only Red Bull who are quicker, and not even just the traditional powerhouse of Ferrari either (Fernando Alonso is [3.85] second favourite). The early reports suggest that if a race were held tomorrow then Toro Rosso, Williams, Renault and even the new boys of Force India would be in front of him, with Mercedes probably neck and neck.

Hamilton was driving reporters around and admitted himself that mechanical issues on the F1 car had limited them to only 38 laps on one of their testing days. And while he optimistically talked of them being able to close the gap, there's a real danger that Red Bull will start the season with a run of victories which will make them too hard to catch - even if they did put the sprinklers on.

Five things you might not know about McLaren's new super car the MP4-12C

1. The core structure is built from magnesium, which is 50% lighter than steel
2. It has a 3.8 litre twin turbocharged engine, producing a top speed of 205mph and accelerating from 0-62 in 3.1 seconds
3. Despite all that power it's comparatively economical. If you can afford to buy it in the first place you might not be bothered, but it delivers 24.2mpg
4. The radiator for cooling the engine is set at the rear of the car
5. McLaren aim to manufacture 1,500 of them annually by 2012. To raise the £168,500 on the road price you could always try staking £12,000 on Jenson Button for the drivers' championship at his current price of [15.0]!

Bernie Ecclestone's latest idea may be a short-lived gimmick but Ralph Ellis fears that Lewis Hamilton could face more enduring problems with his new car......

He may be the youngest ever Drivers' Championship winner but Sebastian Vettel may not be quite the finished article, says Ralph Ellis. So will you lay the German for the 2011 title?...

Red Bull driver becomes youngest ever world champion with flawless performance in Abu Dhabi....

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