"2013 started well with consecutive top-20s in...two events where he had no past form and wouldn't have been ideal tests even at his peak. Alternatively this short layout...in a region where he's previously thrived, is perfect."
For this week's huge-priced winner hunt, Paul Krishnamurty recommends a couple of classy, albeit streaky, characters...
The headline grabbing names of Luke Donald and Charl Schwartzel may give this week's Maybank Malaysian Open a world-class feel, but previous Kuala Lumpur results suggest there aren't many obvious candidates to consider. As Steve Rawlings explains in detail, the cream invariably rise to the top here, as opposed to the Asian Tour regulars or Euro Tour also-rans that make up the bulk of this field.
While that trend offers a pointer for favourite backers, it also makes triple-figure odds about a major champion in reasonable form catch the eye. This column has already made a small profit from Michael Campbell's mini-revival, when he led through 54 holes at the Hong Kong Open last November, and this looks the ideal situation to start following him again.
Of course all bets on a player like Campbell carry a health warning. One of the most erratic players of his generation, Cambo is always prone to throwing in an 80 or turning up at an event rusty or unprepared. Hence the odds. Nevertheless, he has come back from the doledrums three times before during his career and at 44, hasn't reached the age where decline becomes inevitable.
That isn't to say he'll win another US Open or World Matchplay, but this sort of prize is within reach as we saw before Christmas. 2013 started well too, with consecutive top-20s in Abu Dhabi and Qatar - two events where he had no past form and wouldn't have been ideal tests even at his peak. Alternatively this short layout, where the premium is on accurate iron play rather than long driving, in a region where he's previously thrived, is perfect.
It may also suit Pablo Larrazabal, who hit an impressive greens in regulation percentage over the final three rounds en route to a top-20 last week in India. He's made the top-30 on both visits to Kuala Lumpur and was in contention for a place through 54 holes last year. Again, we are backing a streaky player here, who pops up in close contention relatively often but is hard to predict from one day to next. As with Campbell, the key is probably to get onside only when Larrazabal offers signs of a good streak.
The trading advice is to stake four units in total, then place orders at 10.09/1 and 3.02/1 to bank a minimum of eight units profit should either hit the first lay target.
Recommended Bets
Back Michael Campbell 2u @ 110.0109/1
Back Pablo Larrazabal 2u @ 110.0109/1
Place order to lay both players 12u @ 10.09/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1
Updated 2013 Stats: -35.5 units
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