The Punter's De-Brief: The Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 14 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Points and Murray after yesterday’s win

“Even after this weekend’s dreadful flop from the front Sky TV’s pundits were describing Rory McIlroy in glowing terms. He simply hasn’t developed the mettle needed to see out tournaments properly though and his putting really does need to improve.”

Quiros pulls of the most unlikely of wins in Dubai and Bill Murray points D A to victory at the AT & T.....

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again must be Alvaro Quiros' mantra. Having traded odds on in the 2010 Dubai Desert Classic, and having looked likely to catch Thomas Bjorn last week in Qatar, before a late wobble put pay to his charge, the flamboyant Spaniard finally got his just deserts in the desert when he came from a mile back over the weekend to win at the Emirates.

Whilst in the States, Darren Andrew Points, otherwise known as D.A Points , playing with the hugely irritating Bill Murray, chipped in for eagle on the hardest hole on the course (the 14th) and then kept his nerve to take his first US PGA Tour title, to become the sixth winner of the 2011 season and the 6th straight winner at a triple-figure price. Murray's inane buffoonery made this Pro-Am unwatchable for the first three days but it helped Points stay calm yesterday.

My Bets

Quiros was my main pick in Dubai so it's been a great week and after a couple of poor weeks it was great to get back on track for the year. As always, my in-running plays up until the start of play last night are detailed in the Live Golf Blog.

I wasn't going to get involved last night but as round four progressed I couldn't help myself, but I'm glad I did. I started off by backing Phil Mickelson, who I already had onside from the off but when he closed to within three of the lead with six to play I thought he was too big at [20.0] so I topped up. I layed my bet back at [14.0] five minutes later so all I'd effectively done was boost any potential winnings. Winnings that didn't materialise! He made bogey at the treacherous par five 14th and that was that.

The event looked to involve just three players after that, Steve Marino, whose substantial halfway lead was eroding fast, Hunter Mahan, who had started very fast - playing the front nine in five under par and eventual winner D.A Points - with the latter trading far bigger than the two former. I couldn't see why at all, I didn't fancy the already wobbling Marino, with whom Points was tied with at the time, and I'm far from a huge Mahan fan either. [5.7] looked more than fair to me so I backed him, albeit very modestly. I layed the stake back at [2.02] and it was far from a big win but it was enough to cover all my stakes on the event so it finished the weekend off nicely.

Player to follow

As stated, I'm no Hunter Mahan fan but I spent most of last night cursing the fact I'd not backed him. Strangely Hunter has never led after three rounds but he's been within two of the lead nine times. He managed to muscle past the previously flaky Justin Rose at the 2007 Travelers Championship but the rest of the time he's been poor. On the last four occasions he's been bang there on a Sunday he's gone backwards and rapidly. From one back to six back (at the Farmers Insurance last month), one back to four back, two back to nine back! And two back to four back.

Contrast that with his other two PGA Tour wins, when he came from three back to win by two at last year's Bridgestone Invitational and from four back to win in Phoenix a few months earlier. And he also came close at last year's AT & T National in July, when he came from six back to lose by just one.

Taking on Hunter when he's right on the pace with a round to go but backing him when he's a bit further back seems to be the way to go and given how weak the round three leaderboard was here, that was very nearly a good chance missed last night and I was relieved he didn't win.

Player to swerve

Change the record Steve!

It has to be young Rory McIlroy again though. He's so well supported in the market and it's not really surprising. Even after this weekend's dreadful flop from the front Sky TV's pundits were describing him in glowing terms. He simply hasn't developed the mettle needed to see out tournaments properly though and his putting really does need to improve.

I know he's won twice but the first time he nearly threw away a six shot lead and the second victory came courtesy of a miraculous weekend finish at the Wachovia. In contention he's still woeful and remains one to treat with caution.

This week's Race to Dubai event is the Avantha Masters in India and on the US PGA Tour a stellar field will assemble for the Northern Trust Open. I'll preview both, either tomorrow night or on Wednesday morning.

Quiros pulls of the most unlikely of wins in Dubai and Bill Murray points D A to victory at the AT & T........

Alvaro puts the Punter through the mill but it was all worth it in the end........

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai.......

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The Punter's Live Golf Blog: The Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach National

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Early leader Rory McIlroy playing the 12th hole this morning

"Minutes later the cameras showed Quiros on the 10th green. Was he putting for eagle or birdie? Neither. To my astonishment and bitter disappointment it was for a double-bogey seven, which he then missed. What a start to the week."

It's a dreadful start in Dubai for Steve, as both Alvaro Quiros and Miguel-Angel Jimenez mess up good starts...

I wasn't the least bit surprised by what I found with my first peek at the leaderboard at around 6.30 this morning - Rory McIlroy was five under par through ten holes. The Irishman loves this track and this is where he won his first title. A little further down, on three under par, was my morning starter, Miguel-Angel Jimenez, and I was perfectly happy. Unfortunately, my happiness didn't last long....

Playing the tougher front nine second, Jimenez made no further progress and a complete pig's ear of the 6th. A birdie at the 7th lifted my spirits but then his approach shot on the 9th whacked into the hospitality suite and ricocheted into the water. He finished with another double-bogey and an overall score of level par, which left him seven shots off Rory, who really played well and could have finished further clear.

I was a bit peeved to see Sky take an hour and half's break, just as the three-ball containing the world's top three of Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Tiger Woods start off and felt given the unique circumstances a change to their scheduling wouldn't have gone amiss.

The coverage re-started just in time to see Martin Kaymer do exactly what Jimenez had done on the 9th and make double-bogey via the hospitality suite. Something that wasn't entirely unexpected - he played the hole in five over par last year!

My main pick Alvaro Quiros, playing in the group behind had ticked along very nicely and on two under par, all I wanted him to do was get through the tricky 9th. Surely then, playing the easier nine, with its three par 5's, he could kick on and make some ground up on young Rors.

Oops. Guess what, he too found water via the hospitality boxes too! He did manage to get up-and-down for bogey but this was starting to become a real issue. I didn't think the boxes looked any nearer to the green than they'd been in previous years but the run of watery ricochets suggested otherwise.

As the power group played the 10th I couldn't help but notice that Kaymer was trading at half Westwood's price, despite the fact he trailed the Worksop Wonder by one! Who is the real number one I wonder...

Minutes later the cameras showed Quiros on the 10th green. Was he putting for eagle or birdie? Neither. To my astonishment and bitter disappointment it was for a double-bogey seven, which he then missed. What a start to the week - it appeared I was out of the game with all my pre-event picks and I hadn't even had my lunch!

With Rory making such a good start, and with Westwood chugging along well, Kaymer's price was holding up quite well and I decided, as I'm not big on either Rory or Westy, I'd try and get him onside. I waited while he played the tough 14th and 15th, and again delayed as he pared the 15th, then struck, taking [5.5], as he drove the par 4 16th green.

Westwood's bogey at the last helps Kaymer's cause but guess who made eagle to make a poor day so much better. It was typical Tiger - tenacious to the end.

I made two further in-running plays, taking [80.0] about Richard Sterne and [200.0] about Pablo Martin - who's fared considerably better than when he was a pre-event pick last week. As I write, he's five under with a hole to play.

I'm still waiting to see if I get a small bet matched on Phil Mickelson at [10.5] in the States. I must be getting close to the front of the queue now.

It's a dreadful start in Dubai for Steve, as both Alvaro Quiros and Miguel-Angel Jimenez mess up good starts......

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai.......

It's a frustrating week for the Punter, as a near miss in Qatar is followed by a winner in the States that's a year too late!...

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The Punter's picks for the Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach National

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Alvaro Quiros takes aim at the Dubai skyline during last year’s Desert Classic

“With everyone else concerning themselves with the world rankings shenanigans Alvaro may just sneak passed them all.”

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai....

There isn't any doubt which event fills centre stage this week, with the world's top-three teeing it up in Dubai. All the action's being played out in the very friendly morning UK timeslot and we're in for a real treat at the Dubai Desert Classic but finding any value hasn't been easy.

Once Martin Kaymer had demolished the field in Abu Dhabi last month, for the third time in four years, he was always top of my list for this week, but not at this price. His record is superb - not quite Abu Dhabiesque but pretty sensational all the same. He showed an immediate liking for the gaff when he chased home Tiger Woods on his debut three years ago and he's followed that effort up with two 4th placed finishes. But I just have enough little niggles to let him go un-backed this week.

My main concern was the fact that he was always likely to be drawn alongside Lee Westwood and Tiger Woods, and he has. And to make it only slightly tougher they're playing in the afternoon on day one too, which is rarely the best side of the draw. The prospect of topping the world rankings hasn't appeared to have affected his game yet but then it's only just become a real issue but I have a nagging concern that all this new talk of him gazumping Westwood and topping the tree might just unsettle him.

One other issue is the 9th hole. It's a tricky par four with water in play and Martin just can't seem to master it. He played it in five over par last year! I took [12.5] twelve months ago on the back of a very similar set of form figures and just feel he's too short this time around at about half that price.

This is strong line-up to say the least and the aforementioned Woods and Westwood, as well as Rory McIlroy all have great course form, with Westwood the only one of the three not to have taken the title - though he really should have done so last year. Despite their strong course form, none make any appeal. Woods was woeful last time out at Torrey Pines, Westwood appears to have gone AWOL since topping the charts and Rory is sure to contend but will his putting and his bottle hold up? I have my doubts.

Another player that most certainly had a chance to win last year is my first selection, last week's nearly man - Alvaro Quiros.

In an interview last week on Sky, Alvaro confessed to having experienced only one occasion when he started to think of victory before it was sealed - at this event last year. When he found the green on the par five 13th on Sunday he was matched at a low of [1.58] but he three-putted and completely lost it after that. Some may say he did much the same thing last week in Qatar but I'm prepared to give him another chance.

He showed in no uncertain terms in Qatar that he can repeat form at certain venues and I expect him to contend again here, and with everyone else concerning themselves with the world rankings shenanigans he may just sneak passed them all.

Second up is last year's champ Miguel Angel Jimenez - I felt [40.0] was just too big for the likeable veteran. I'm completely happy to dismiss his effort at Doha last week. Although he's held the early lead there a couple of times before, he's never really fared too well there and he could well have suffered a reaction to his near miss the week before in Bahrain when he finished in a tie for 2nd. The big concern with Mig is putting. He got so frustrated at missing short ones in Bahrain that he threw his 'old faithful' at his bag and broke it during round three. Hopefully he's now found a suitable replacement that can get a few more to drop.

I've also backed Thonchai Jaidee, whose case is made in this week's 'Find Me A 100 Winner' piece and last but not least, another Spaniard in the shape of last week's third place finisher, Raphael Cabrera-Bello. He's a risky play, with only a missed cut to his name at this venue, but at [150.0] he's not going to do too much damage to the bank balance if he flops.

Selections:

Alvaro Quiros @ [21.0]
Miguel Angel-Jimenez @ [40.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [100.0]
Raphael Cabrera-Bello @ [150.0]

I've been through the runners at this week's other event, the A T & T Pebble Beach National, umpteen times and I'll be jiggered if I can find anyone really worth backing. I went round and round that many times I almost found myself pressing that little blue button next to Phil Mickelson's name. And I'm not entirely convinced I won't do yet before they tee off! We have to be careful here though; so far in 2011 the US Tour hasn't produced a double-figure priced winner, let alone a single-figure priced one. So far, it's the year of the shocks stateside.

Lefty was awful last week after starting so well and I was certain I'd be swerving him this week but then I looked at the field in detail and a play on him makes as much sense as anything else.

He's won this title three times and on the last such occasion, in 2007, it followed immediately after a dreadful missed cut in Phoenix. Mercurial at the best of times his record here is a real mixed bag. He's as liable to bolt up as he is to miss the cut but at a slightly bigger price he certainly makes more appeal than defending champ Dustin Johnson - who I simply don't trust in contention anymore. A case of sorts can be made for the next six or so in the betting but none of them grab me at the prices but I have managed to dig out a couple.

Brian Gay is in fair form, having finished in the top-20 in each of his last four spins. His record on the west coast is far from magnificent but with a best ever 16th place here last year, I felt he was just worth a small play at [55.0]. And I've a sneaky feeling about Matt Bettencourt this year, so he's been backed at [200.0].

Selections:

Brian Gay @ [55.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [200.0]

I'll be back on Thursday to kick off the Live Blog.

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai.......

It's a frustrating week for the Punter, as a near miss in Qatar is followed by a winner in the States that's a year too late!...

I know it's Monday afternoon but we're not done yet! Can Mark Wilson hang on in Phoenix?...

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