The Punter
/ Steven Rawlings / 29 January 2011 / 1 Comments
Paul Casey – In with a great chance in Bahrain
“Casey must be keen to win on the Colin Montgomerie designed course - it wouldn’t be much compensation for missing the Ryder Cup but it would be slightly ironic should he win here, given the Scot overlooked him for a place in the European team last year.”
Woods and co are still in the mix at the Farmers but Steve's just about given up in Bahrain...
14.45 - January 28, 2012
Yesterday looked destined to be an utterly disastrous day until it was mercifully saved somewhat by strong finishes by three of my pre-event picks at the Farmers....
Outsider Robert Garrigus had already blown his chance on day one but Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Ben Crane had all started the event well enough on Thursday. When Woods birdied four holes in a row from the 3rd yesterday he shortened right up to [2.76], and that didn't look short to me. I was gaining confidence and starting to really enjoy it but then, almost inexplicably, and not for the first time in recent history, Tigers game started to unravel in no uncertain terms. He bogeyed three holes on the back nine and needed a number of lengthy par saves to just hang on in. Thankfully he birdied two of the last three and now sits on -6, which is still five off Bill Haas' lead.
Phil Mickelson struggled to find fairways all day on the easier North Course and as a result didn't get close enough often enough with his second shots to construct a low score. Birdies on his last two holes glossed over a disappointing round and I'm hoping that that's his bad one out of the way. And alongside Lefty on -8 is Crane, who also birdied the 8th and 9th holes to end on a high on the North Course.
I've now layed out a little more cash, getting Anthony Kim onside at [10.0]. I backed AK in his first two starts of the season at long odds and was encouraged by his performances in both. The only reason I didn't back him from the start was his very poor form at Torrey Pines. I have Kim in mind for the Masters and I haven't seen anything yet to put me off - now fully recovered following a nasty hand injury sustained last year, 2011 could be the year AK kicks on and, just two shots off the lead at halfway, I can't quite see why he's as big as [10.0].
Sometimes you just have to laugh at this game. The plan in Bahrain was to place a few small bets at the start, get to grips with the new course and then get involved towards the end of day two - which is pretty much what I did. But to be out of the game before the leaders had even reached halfway on day three is desperate. And it wasn't as if I backed outsiders!
Round three saw Alvaro Quiros at least stop haemorrhaging bogeys, but he also stopped making birdies and Edoardo Molinari had a deplorable day on the greens, making nothing whatsoever with the putter.
I'm almost certainly out of the game here now and I'm not entirely sure I want to re-enter it either! Paul Casey and Peter Hanson head a tightly packed leaderboard but I don't fancy either at the short prices. Casey must be keen to win on the Colin Montgomerie designed course - it wouldn't be much compensation for missing the Ryder Cup but it would be slightly ironic should he win here, given the Scot overlooked him for a place in the European team last year.
I might back the Italian pair of Matteo Manassero and Francesco Molinari, should they drift to suitable prices, but then again, I might not. I do think the leaders are vulnerable though and that there might be some value from off the pace, but I've struggled from the start here and it may well be wise to just give up. I'm not going to whine and whinge about it though...unlike Mr Poulter! (See Mike's comment below).
14.25 - January 28, 2012
I was more than happy with the first round of the Farmers Insurance Open. Tiger Woods didn't score particularly well, playing the slightly easier North course and finishing the day on -3 but I thought he played well. His putting looked a little rusty but his iron-play was superb and I fancy he'll be there or thereabouts come Sunday.
The South Course, with an average of 72.73, played almost two shots tougher than the North Course, which averaged 70.96, so in theory, Phil Mickelson, who drifted all week in the run up to the start, should widen the gap between him and Woods. Lefty equalled the best score of the day on the South with a five under par 67. That was his best round there since 2004 and he was no doubt spurred on by his wife Amy's presence in the galleries.
Already aboard at [19.0], I greedily topped up on Lefty at [9.6] so I'm hoping he can keep things moving along. And he'll have to, despite the good start; he's still three off the lead - held by Korean rookie Sunghoon Kang.
We've now reached the halfway point of the Volvo Golf Champions and I've made a right mess of my book there and I had such a great plan. Wait until the afternoon starters have played eight holes and then make any plays after that. Instead I placed my first bet before the afternoon starters had even begun!
When Jose Manuel Lara birdied the 7th hole, his 16th of the round, to get to within two of the lead, I backed him at what looked a very generous [90.0]. It was too big because I layed half my stake straight back at [65.0] but then he double-bogeyed the 8th. I should have known then that it perhaps wasn't going to be my day in Bahrain.
I then decided that Edoardo Molinari looked too big at [6.0] as he birdied the 9th - his final hole of the day. I thought that if the wind was anything like as bad as had it been in the afternoon on day one, that he would be in a great position at halfway. It didn't blow at all, and those that played in the afternoon on day one have had the worst of the draw by far - the Molinari brothers are the only players from that side of the draw in the top-ten.
And just to finish off the mess I also backed Alvaro Quiros at [16.0] during his second round. He bogeyed two of his last five holes and can now be backed at twice that price! Oh well.
Somewhat bizarrely the pros will be joined by amateurs tomorrow. I have no idea whose idea that was but it's a pants one! I really dislike Pro-Ams but at least they usually have the amateurs play the first few rounds, and then they're out of the way by the final one. I'm under the impression they only join the pros for tomorrow's third round here, but why? The event's starting to hot up now, couldn't they have got in the way on day one?
14.15 - January 27, 2012
My initial impression of the Montgomerie Course this morning was that it was a very easy track. Hardly any of the competitors were over par and Johan Edfors reached -8 for his round, but as the wind got up in the afternoon the scoring slowed up.
The stats show it was actually just one stroke harder in the afternoon, but it looked tougher than that. I'm still unsure whether accuracy is going to win over power - Edfors leads the Greens In Regulation stats as well as the tournament and the presence of Francesco Molinari and Matteo Manassero on the leaderboard suggests accurate iron-play could win the day. But on the other hand, renowned big-hitter Alvaro Quiros is just three off the lead. He should have fared better but two visits to the water took the edge of a round which saw him birdie half of the holes he played.
What we do already know about the venue is that the finish is tough. The long par three 16th played the hardest and the last two holes ranked fifth and sixth in terms of difficulty. A lead of one or two with three or four to play on Sunday may well not be enough. And if playing in-running before that, the scoring section of the course appears to be from the ninth to the 14th but the run of five holes from the fourth hole before that is far from easy. Players face three of the toughest four holes on the course before pitching up on the ninth tee.
All four of my small initial plays had afternoon tee-times and none of them fared brilliantly. Rhys Davies looks out of it already, while both Thongchai Jaidee and Rafael Cabrera-Bello came to grief at the end of their rounds. Frustratingly, both dropped two shots over the closing three holes and ended the day on -3. The best of mine is Brett Rumford, who started his round on the 10th. Now on -4, he finished really well and I've had a small top-up at [150.00].
I haven't made any further plays yet but I suspect tomorrow's going to be a lot busier now that the watching brief is just about complete.
I'll be back again at around this time tomorrow, by which time we'll know how Tiger Woods and co have started off in the States.
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