Find Me a 100 Winner Trading System: BMW International Open

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Signs are that Boyd could be a winner sooner rather than later...

"Boyd has shown an excellent temperament in contention before, so his breakthrough could be imminent."

After the intensity of Congressional, Paul Krishnamurty believes it's wise to select players who enjoyed a week off during the US Open.

The event immediately following a major is rarely straightforward for the top players, especially when they've been playing on a different continent. In addition to a long flight from Washington to Germany, the leading candidates at this week's BMW International Open, nearly all of whom played in the US Open, will have very limited opportunities for practice rounds and to adapt to the different greens. For that reason, while there are several solid candidates near the head of the betting, this could well be a good week to be backing outsiders. Hopefully, I've found a couple of very plausible contenders, who've enjoyed the benefit of a week off.

Gary Boyd went very close for this column a fortnight ago in Italy, and simply must be retained at the cracking odds of [110.0]. As Steve Rawlings pointed out that week, Boyd's return to form didn't come completely out of the blue, as he'd just qualified for the Open, so there's every reason to think he can carry on the good work. Gary went into many a notebook towards the end of 2010 as a likely first-time winner, when registering seven top-25s on his last 11 starts, thrice challenging strongly inside the top-four. He's shown an excellent temperament in contention before, so his breakthrough could be imminent.

Chilean Felipe Aguilar is also in decent form, making the top-20 in four of his last seven events, twice finishing top-six. Aguilar is a proven winner on various continents, and demonstrated an excellent front-running temperament for a career highlight victory in the 2008 Indonesian Open. He's also shown a liking for the Eichenried layout before, finishing fourth here two years ago, when arriving in nowhere near the same level of form as this time round.

The trading plan is to back each player for two units, then place two lay orders at [10.0] and [3.0], guaranteeing a profit if either man shortens to the first target.

Recommended Bets
2u Gary Boyd @ [110.0]
2u Felipe Aguilar [120.0]

2011 Updated Stats: -39.5u

It's the US Open so only the finest are invited, and with so many quality players in the field you can back a top-class talent at a huge price. Paul krishnamurty picks three players trading at more than [100.0] at...

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Find Me a 100 Winner Trading System:The Players Championship at Sawgrass

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Allenby can shine again on a course he loves

"Greens in regulation are at an absolute premium around this layout, and Allenby is usually very reliable in that department, topping those stats on his penultimate start."

Three players who share some important characteristics make Paul's shortlist of big-priced players to follow at Sawgrass

Last year's Players Championship was a heartbreaking affair for this column, with [130.0] pick Robert Allenby trading at odds-on before being reeled in down the stretch. Back then, these 100 winner picks were recommended as win only selections, but had the new trading system been followed, a substantial profit would have been guaranteed long before that frustrating finish.

Allenby once again makes the staking plan, because that performance confirmed long-held suspicions that he is ideally suited to Sawgrass. Greens in regulation are at an absolute premium around this layout, and Allenby is usually very reliable in that department, topping those stats on his penultimate start. Equally top-six finishes at Redstone and Riviera suggest he isn't so far off his best. I see no good reason why he should again be available at [100.0].

The other positive with Allenby is that he's precisely the type of vastly experienced, older player that tends to do well at Sawgrass, due to the emphasis on accuracy and course knowledge, rather than power. Indeed the shortest hitter on the tour, Fred Funk, won this title at the age of 48. Scott Verplank was tied for second on that occasion in 2005, and if recent evidence is a guide, remains just as competitive now as he was then. Verplank could be considered unlucky to have run into a peak-form Mickelson when runner-up at Redstone, and also made the top-ten on another Pete Dye layout last time at the Heritage.

I can't make a similar argument for my third pick on recent form, but Stephen Ames has such strong Sawgrass credentials that odds of [250.0] are simply too big to ignore. Ames won this title by six shots in 2006, and was one of the unluckiest ever losers in 2002, when finishing second to [500.0] rag Craig Perks who seemingly holed everything. The Canadian also made the top-five in 2008, again confirming his liking for this accuracy test. Granted, he hasn't set this year's PGA Tour alight, but Ames has at least managed a top-three in Puerto Rico, and ranked inside the top-ten for greens in regulation on his penultimate start, finishing mid-division at the Heritage.

The plan is to lay out a total of 5 units, and then place two lay orders on each player at [12.0] and [3.0], ensuring that we at least double our money if any single lay target is hit.

Recommended Bets
2.5 units Robert Allenby @ [100.0]
1.5 units Scott Verplank @ [160.0]
1 unit Stephen Ames @ [250.0]

Place order to lay each player 10 units @ [12.0]
Place order to lay each player 20 units @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -19.5 units

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Find Me a 100 Winner Trading System - World Matchplay Special!

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Every Jason has his Day. The Aussie has a very winnable first round match against Kyung-Tae Kim.

"Finally, in the Sam Snead Bracket, Jason Day is an enormous price at [110.0] considering that he starts as hot favourite for his opening match against Kyung-Tae Kim."

This is the sort of tournament where everyone is a big price, though not necessarily a value price. But which three figures prices are the ones to be on?

The format used for this week's World Matchplays presents an obvious trading strategy. Because there is a fixed draw, it makes sense to pick out one player from each of the four brackets, in the knowledge that successfully picking just one semi-finalist would guarantee a profit on the event.

Firstly in the Bobby Jones Bracket, odds of [110.0] about Martin Laird are frankly an insult, bearing no reflection to his recent numbers. This is a player with top-five finishes in four of his last seven starts, often in very strong company. Even for one of his lesser recent performances, Laird was bang in contention after four rounds of the Bob Hope Classic. The draw has been fairly kind too, with a perfectly winnable opening match against Edoardo Molinari.

With his odds vastly inflated at [170.0] compared to relatively recent levels, it could be worth taking a chance that the switch from strokeplay to matchplay can work the oracle for Bo Van Pelt. Few players showed more consistent improvement in 2010, so it's too early to write him off for 2011. As it happens, his only decent effort so far came here in Arizona earlier this month when hitting three good rounds at the Phoenix Open. Again his first round opponent in the Ben Hogan Bracket, Louis Oosthuisen, doesn't set a terrifying standard.

Ryan Palmer similarly owes his place in this elite event to a much improved 2010 campaign, although in his case fourth at the Bob Hope Classic confirms he remains in good form. Furthermore, Palmer is in the weakest section, with only three players from the Gary Player Bracket currently trading under [60.0]. If Ryan can upset the odds against an out-of-form Jim Furyk on Wednesday, [160.0] could quickly look huge.

Finally, in the Sam Snead Bracket, Jason Day is an enormous price at [110.0] considering that he starts as hot favourite for his opening match against Kyung-Tae Kim. That quote looks an over-reaction to missing last week's cut, his first for nine months, and the young Aussie prospect is better judged on consecutive top-20s previously in Hawaii.

The trading plan is to invest six units, at odds that combine to a little more than [25.0]. Then, place two lay orders on each player, both for ten units, at [7.0] and [3.0]. Hitting the first lay target would involve winning three matches, and taking the lead in the quarter-final. The second target would involve reaching the last four, and again taking the lead.

Recommended bets

1.5 units Martin Laird @ [110.0]
1.5 units Jason Day @ [110.0]
1 unit Ryan Palmer @ [160.0]
1 unit Bo Van Pelt @ [170.0]

Place order to lay each player 10 units @ [7.0]
Place order to lay each player 10 units @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -12 units

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Find Me a 100 Winner Trading System: Thorbjorn Olesen

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Thorbjorn Olesen boasts very strong Challenge Tour form

"Olesen only became a Challenge Tour regular last summer, and had little problem qualifying for the main tour after a win and five top-five finishes."

This talented Dane is looking to follow in the footsteps of Martin Kaymer and Edoardo Molinari by winning on the proper tour after dominating at Challenge level

With the recent run of shock PGA Tour winners strongly fancied to end at Riviera, it makes better sense to search for outsiders in this week's Race to Dubai event, the Avantha Masters. However, with only one member of the world's top-100 amongst the line-up in India, plausible outside selections are rather thin on the ground.

Therefore, I'm just having the one pick this week, Thorbjorn Olesen at [120.0]. In Martin Kaymer and Edoardo Molinari, we have seen in recent years how the very best youngsters graduating from the Challenge Tour can make an impact at the higher level almost immediately. Of this year's graduates, 21-year-old Olesen looks the one with the greatest scope for quick improvement.

This Dane first caught the eye when making the top-five as a teenager on his first ever European Tour start, in the 2009 Scandinavian Masters. That was a remarkable achievement in only his fifth professional tournament, and Olesen has shown plenty more promise since. He only became a Challenge Tour regular last summer, and had little problem qualifying for the main tour after a win and five top-five finishes. Once upped in class, he made an immediate impact by finishing second and ninth in two co-sanctioned Race to Dubai events in South Africa.

Predictably, Olesen attracted much attention from punters after that start, but a hat-trick of missed cuts has him back among the rags. It makes no sense to over-react to such an inexperienced player missing a few cuts - it goes with the territory, and Olesen has still played fewer than 50 professional events. He remains a fine prospect, well capable of winning in his rookie year. An opportunity like this, at triple-figures in a low-grade field, is too good to ignore.

The trading plan is to have two units at [120.0], and then place two lay orders to bank a profit should he shorten up. Both are for 10 units, firstly at [10.0], secondly at [3.0].

Recommended Bets:
2 units Thorbjorn Olesen @ [120.0]
Place order to lay 10 units @ [10.0]
Place order to lay 10 units @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -10 units

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