"I strongly suspect that before long, we will only be able to dream of taking such odds about the next great Argentinian player. Grillo has repeatedly caught the eye in recent months and with top-25s on five of his last six starts, looks certain to contend strongly very soon."
Several massive outsiders have won the BMW PGA Championship during it's long history, most recently Simon Khan at odds of 600.0599/1 in 2010. This year, Paul Krishnamurty recommends trading the following trio...
As always, a plethora of world-class players head the market for this week's BMW PGA Championship, which is good news for the purposes of this column. Extra quality and depth amongst the favourites means many more plausible winners within our price-range and it must be said that narrowing this week's shortlist was tougher than usual. For example, I will probably have a moan if Paul Casey wins but with three bigger-priced alternatives marginally preferred, the line had to be drawn somewhere.
First up at odds of 150.0149/1, Victor Dubuisson hasn't won yet, but this promising Frenchman looks bound to break through sooner or later. Dubuisson's first 59 starts on the European Tour have yielded an impressive 20 top-25 finishes, including 11 top-tens, four of which have come this season. The feature of his play throughout has been long game excellence, as demonstrated by topping the greens in regulation stats last time out en route to third place in the China Open. That bodes well for Wentworth's tough test, as does 21st on last year's course debut.
Nobody came closer last season to landing this column a winner than Marcus Fraser, who traded at heavily odds-on when losing a play-off for the BMW International Open. He also gave us a good run for our money in this event two years ago, finishing fourth at around 500.0499/1. This year he's available at 160.0159/1, which still looks way too big and something of an insult. Recent form is excellent too, with Fraser finishing second on his penultimate start in the Ballantines, (his third runners-up spot in the past year), and fifth in the Dubai Desert Classic.
Normally I'd be loathe to back a rookie around Wentworth but at odds of 300.0299/1, an exception can be made for Emiliano Grillo. I strongly suspect that before long, we will only be able to dream of taking such odds about the next great Argentinian player. Grillo has repeatedly caught the eye in recent months and with top-25s on five of his last six starts, looks certain to contend strongly very soon. He ranks second for total driving this season and ranked in the top-three for greens in regulation on three of those recent starts. That's the perfect skills-set for Wentworth.
The trading plan is to stake five units in total, then place lay orders at 14.013/1 and 3.02/1 on each player. If just one of them hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to at least triple our money.
Recommended bets
Back Victor Dubuisson 2u @ 150.0149/1
Back Marcus Fraser 2u @ 160.0159/1
Back Emiliano Grillo 1u @ 300.0299/1
Place order to lay each player 15u @ 14.013/1
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.02/1
Updated 2013 Stats: + 3 units
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