Graham Cunningham's Cheltenham Blog: Simonsig very tough to oppose

Day one recommendations

Back My Tent Or Yours and Un Atout in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Back Simonsig in the Arkle Chase
Back Arabella Boy win and place in the Cross Country Chase

The speculation is over and it's time for the horses to do the talking on day one of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. Tradition dictates that trilby hatted sportsmanship rules, but the men below the titfers are desperate for success and Channel 4 analyst Graham Cunningham is relishing the equine and human battles in the three big Grade 1 contests...

The chances of a Fergie-style rant or a Mourinho gallop down the touchline are slim to non existent, but don't make the mistake of thinking the big names of Cheltenham are any less driven than their footballing counterparts.

Cast your mind back to Aintree last April when Neptune Collonges recorded the narrowest winning margin in history to give Paul Nicholls that long awaited first Grand National success.

Nicholls had aimed any number of good horses at the Aintree showpiece without success and could have been forgiven for basking in the glory of finally landing the world's most famous chase.

But instead some of the first words to come out of his mouth were "that's blown Nicky out of the water."

The Nicky in question was Nicky Henderson, who remains favourite to dethrone Nicholls as champion trainer for the first time in seven years and heads back to Cheltenham with a potent hand headed by Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Bobs Worth and backed up by the likes of My Tent Or Yours, Oscar Whisky and Long Run.

Henderson's patrician approach inspires devotion from old school jumping fans and caution from some exchange players - witness Grandouet's volatile progress in the Champion Hurdle market of late - but Nicholls is the most feisty of competitors and will not give up his crown lightly as Zarkandar bids to make it 4-0 in his running battles with Grandouet.

Nor will he be keen to see his former assistant Harry Fry trump the pair with former Nicholls star Rock On Ruby, while Carlow powerhouse Willie Mullins heads to the Festival with the most powerful Irish team ever assembled and is confident Hurricane Fly is back to the form which saw him land the Champion in ruthlessly efficient fashion two years ago.

And all that reckons without the spiky banter which has been such a feature of the preamble to the heavyweight clash between Simonsig and Overturn in the Arkle Chase.

Henderson has suggested that the trailblazing Overturn will give Simonsig the perfect lead, while the normally laid back Donald McCain has bristled quietly in response having seen many a fancied rival crumble when faced with the sort of heat his stable star brings to battle.

True, it's hardly the sort of trash talk which accompanies heavyweight boxing, but the subtleties of the personal battles will add huge interest to the equine duels in this year's Festival.

But what about the tactical subtleties of the three big races on day one?

Tactics shouldn't be crucial in the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle if My Tent Or Yours is in the same form that saw him turn an ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle into a procession at Newbury.

Timeform ratings give him a great deal in hand and the unbeaten Irish raider Un Atout is the other to focus on in a race which will almost certainly be run at a stronger pace than the Champion Hurdle over the same distance.

The lack of an obvious front runner has been a constant talking point with regard to the Champion, while an added layer of intrigue has been added with news that Fry has decided to fit the outwardly uncomplicated Rock On Ruby with blinkers for the first time.

Fry will be hailed as a wizard if the plan comes off - and if forced to choose Rock On Ruby would get my vote - but the combination of soft ground and slight concerns about the headgear have put me off a little.

By contrast, I've switched from being open minded to clear cut on the Arkle.

It's always difficult to bet against your heart in a big race and I would love to see McCain gaze across to Hendo in the winner's enclosure and give him that knowing smile if Overturn can turn Simonsig away.

But the more I look at the Arkle the more I suspect this sets up perfectly for Simonsig.

Overturn will blaze as usual and the pressure on jumping will be very high given that Arvika Ligeonniere and Majala can also force the pace. However, a frenetic gallop could be exactly what Simonsig needs to show his brilliance.

A runaway winner of last year's Neptune Hurdle, Simonsig has slaughtered small chase fields at Ascot and Kempton with a combination of sound jumping and a relentless cruising gallop.

Expect Barry Geraghty to bide his time before loping into contention coming down the hill.

Overturn won't lie down if challenged, but Simonsig looks better equipped for conditions now the ground has turned soft and even at 1.75/7 or thereabouts he looks very tough to oppose.

Last but not least on day one, a word on the Cross Country Chase.

My original fancy Balthazar King misses out due to the soft ground, but the weekend deluge is great news for Arabella Boy.

Enda Bolger's gelding departed six out here in December but his overall profile in this discipline is progressive and impressive. Don't expect to see him on the scene too early. Do expect to see him play a significant part in the finish.

Day one recommendations

Back My Tent Or Yours and Un Atout in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Back Simonsig in the Arkle Chase
Back Arabella Boy win and place in the Cross Country Chase

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Graham Cunningham's In-play Tips: Saturday at Newmarket and York

I'm more than happy to take a swing at Dandy Boy in the belief that this Irish raider has way more going for him than his double figure price suggests.

Recommended Bets
Back Area Fifty One and lay off at 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:00 @ York
Back Dandy Boy and lay off @ 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:20 @ Newmarket
Back Ponty Acclaim @ 3.02/1 in-running in the 15:35 @ York
Back Royal Rascal in the 17:20 @ York

With Black Caviar back in Australia after her Ascot exploits, Europe's champion sprinter crown is up for grabs. But who will stake a claim in Saturday's July Cup at Newmarket? Several leading fancies could be all at sea if further rain hits HQ and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is hoping an Irish raider can take advantage on the back of a career best effort which may have slipped under the radar.

Now here's a rum old punting puzzle for the July Cup.

Black Caviar is back in Oz after her dramatic Diamond Jubilee win; her nearest Ascot victims Moonlight Cloud and Restidiargent haven't travelled from France; Coolmore have decided not to step Frankel's regular punchbag Excelebration back from a mile; and the likes of Strong Suit and Ortensia line up on the back of very subdued efforts.

Bated Breath and the ex-Australian star Sepoy are almost certainly the fastest horses in this field, but the final climb to the line could pose serious problems for both given the recent storms and I'm more than happy to take a swing at Dandy Boy in the belief that this Irish raider has way more going for him than his double figure price suggests.

If recent sprinting history tells us one thing it is that the gap between top handicaps like the Wokingham and major sprint can be bridged by the right horse.

Fayr Jag did it after landing the Wokingham from a BHA mark of 102; so did Deacon Blues after his Wokingham win off 98 last year, while Iffraaj came within an ace of landing the 2006 July Cup having landed the Wokingham off a BHA perch of 101 in 2005.

Dandy Boy was racing from a BHA mark of 106 when springing a 33-1 surprise for his Wokingham win at Ascot last month.

And there wasn't an ounce of fluke about it, as he travelled powerfully under restraint from the start on the far side before quickening impressively to beat a tremendously deep field with real authority.

That win provided a broad hint that Dandy Boy - having spent the vast majority of his career racing over seven furlongs and a mile - is ideally suited by patient tactics in a strongly-run race over a stiff six.

I'm not leaning on the fact that he clocked a faster time than Black Caviar at Ascot.

But I am leaning on the fact that Dandy Boy has suddenly hit a new level stepping down in distance and he makes plenty of appeal as a back to lay option at a working man's price.

*

It's a shame the focus on the July Cup will take the spotlight off John Smith's Cup day at York, but that won't worry a massive crowd including any number of jolly boys day out trips gathering on the Knavesmire.

I will be one of those jolly boys trying to blend a bit of boozing with a little more betting and my progress will revolve largely on how a couple of York's favourite sons fare. Richard Fahey and Tim Easterby are the locals in question.

Fahey saddles Area Fifty One for the big race at 15:00 and this highly progressive gelding is well treated under a penalty for his commanding win at Newmarket.

Jockey David Nolan said, "Fast ground is the key," after Area Fifty One had bolted up at HQ.

However, that doesn't tally with his excellent York second on his previous start and, with the good claimer Shane B Kelly booked, Area Fifty One has the ability and prominent racing style to trade much shorter than the current 9 and bigger once things get serious in the straight.

Tim Easterby's Ponty Acclaim and Royal Rascal are the other two to keep an eye on this Saturday.

Ponty Acclaim will be a fair price for the 15:35, but she's a smart filly with solid York form in the book who was far from disgraced from a troublesome draw in Royal Ascot's King's Stand Stakes.

I'm hoping she can show up boldly and trade short in this more suitable grade, while stablemate Royal Rascal bolted up on deep ground over this course and distance two starts ago and did more than enough in defeat behind the well-regarded Euxton Hall at Pontefract. She could be one of the bets of the weekend in the nursery at 17:20.

Recommended Bets
Back Area Fifty One and lay off at 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:00 @ York
Back Dandy Boy and lay off @ 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:20 @ Newmarket
Back Ponty Acclaim @ 3.02/1 in-running in the 15:35 @ York
Back Royal Rascal in the 17:20 @ York

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Aintree Day Three: Graham Cunningham's In-Play Tips

Daily Tipping / Graham Cunningham / 13 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Ballabriggs follow up last year's victory by winning the Grand National again?

"Ballabriggs was simply brilliant in this race last year, attacking the big fences with real gusto from the start and forging clear of the well handicapped Oscar Time."

The 2012 Grand National is finally upon us and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham feels last year's hero might be on the verge of another historic feat at Aintree this weekend.

They call it the worlds's greatest steeplechase with very good reason. You need to jump 30 formidable fences and stay four and a half miles thoroughly to go down in history as a Grand National hero.

Slowly but surely, the Grand National short list has been whittled down.

Shakalakaboomboom was at the top of it when the weights first came out, while Becauseicouldntsee and Always Right have been lurking on the fringes for at least a couple of weeks. However, as the big day dawns I've finally plumped for Ballabriggs and Giles Cross as my two against the field in this year's race.

In truth, there is no flash story behind backing either horse with a view to laying off to save the stake in running.

Ballabriggs was simply brilliant in this race last year, attacking the big fences with real gusto from the start and forging clear of the well handicapped Oscar Time as the pair drew well clear of the 2010 National winner Don't Push It.

Stats followers will point out that he's 10lb higher in the weights this time and that there hasn't been a back to back National winner since Red Rum in 1974.

But take another look back at the video of last year's race. Ballabriggs just looks an extremely good horse round this course and looks bound to give us a great run, while Giles Cross has eased in the market since the rain went away but looked an ideal Aintree type when winning at Haydock and is another with the potential to trade much shorter in running than his current big price.

As ever, the Aintree Hurdle is the chief supporting event on National day and this year's renewal promises to be a belter with Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby taking on last year's principals Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars.

This looks a complex puzzle to solve from a punting viewpoint, but there is one other horse on Saturday's card who commands my attention. And the horse in question is Kazlian in the Handicap Hurdle at 17:05.

This unexposed gelding was high on my list of handicappers to follow at the Cheltenham Festival. However, his rider Tom Scudamore asked him a huge question in setting off so hard at the head of a huge field. Sectional times show that Kazlian went harder from the first flight to the third last in the Fred Winter than the top-class Overturn did in a truly-run Champion Hurdle.

It came as no surprise to see Kazlian find no extra when challenged up the hill that day, but he gave the strong impression that he's still firmly on the up and I'll be looking to snap up the best early price with a view to trading out at much shorter in running.

Saturday Recommended Bets
Back Ballabriggs and Giles Cross (16:15) and lay off to save the stake at [5.0] in running
Back Kazlian (17:05) and lay off to save the stake at [2.5] in running

Timeform run the rule over the runners for the most famous race in the world, the Grand National at Aintree......

A nicely priced outsider in the opening race on the second day of the Grand National meeting......

Timeform run the rule over the 2m4f Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree on Friday afternoon......

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Aintree Day Three: Graham Cunningham's In-Play Tips

Daily Tipping / Graham Cunningham / 13 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Ballabriggs follow up last year's victory by winning the Grand National again?

"Ballabriggs was simply brilliant in this race last year, attacking the big fences with real gusto from the start and forging clear of the well handicapped Oscar Time."

The 2012 Grand National is finally upon us and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham feels last year's hero might be on the verge of another historic feat at Aintree this weekend.

They call it the worlds's greatest steeplechase with very good reason. You need to jump 30 formidable fences and stay four and a half miles thoroughly to go down in history as a Grand National hero.

Slowly but surely, the Grand National short list has been whittled down.

Shakalakaboomboom was at the top of it when the weights first came out, while Becauseicouldntsee and Always Right have been lurking on the fringes for at least a couple of weeks. However, as the big day dawns I've finally plumped for Ballabriggs and Giles Cross as my two against the field in this year's race.

In truth, there is no flash story behind backing either horse with a view to laying off to save the stake in running.

Ballabriggs was simply brilliant in this race last year, attacking the big fences with real gusto from the start and forging clear of the well handicapped Oscar Time as the pair drew well clear of the 2010 National winner Don't Push It.

Stats followers will point out that he's 10lb higher in the weights this time and that there hasn't been a back to back National winner since Red Rum in 1974.

But take another look back at the video of last year's race. Ballabriggs just looks an extremely good horse round this course and looks bound to give us a great run, while Giles Cross has eased in the market since the rain went away but looked an ideal Aintree type when winning at Haydock and is another with the potential to trade much shorter in running than his current big price.

As ever, the Aintree Hurdle is the chief supporting event on National day and this year's renewal promises to be a belter with Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby taking on last year's principals Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars.

This looks a complex puzzle to solve from a punting viewpoint, but there is one other horse on Saturday's card who commands my attention. And the horse in question is Kazlian in the Handicap Hurdle at 17:05.

This unexposed gelding was high on my list of handicappers to follow at the Cheltenham Festival. However, his rider Tom Scudamore asked him a huge question in setting off so hard at the head of a huge field. Sectional times show that Kazlian went harder from the first flight to the third last in the Fred Winter than the top-class Overturn did in a truly-run Champion Hurdle.

It came as no surprise to see Kazlian find no extra when challenged up the hill that day, but he gave the strong impression that he's still firmly on the up and I'll be looking to snap up the best early price with a view to trading out at much shorter in running.

Saturday Recommended Bets
Back Ballabriggs and Giles Cross (16:15) and lay off to save the stake at [5.0] in running
Back Kazlian (17:05) and lay off to save the stake at [2.5] in running

Timeform run the rule over the runners for the most famous race in the world, the Grand National at Aintree......

A nicely priced outsider in the opening race on the second day of the Grand National meeting......

Timeform run the rule over the 2m4f Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree on Friday afternoon......

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Find Me a 100 Winner: Golden Graham to shine in Texas

Find Me A 100 Winner / Steven Rawlings / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Graham DeLaet – Can he contend again in Texas

“Graham DeLaet’s an immense talent with obvious course form and he could just give us a run for our money at a very big price.”

With Paul Krishnamurty resting up ahead of next week's US Masters, Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, continues the search for a monster-priced winner

With a profit of 52 units already this year, stepping into Paul's shoes, even just for one week, is no envious task. Even though he hasn't had a winner yet in 2012, he's still amassed a very tidy sum, demonstrating the power of the pink button. This column is all about getting big-priced selections into contention and making profits by laying them back. I've picked out one selection at each of the week's two events in an attempt to do just that.

With a new venue and a weak looking field, a shock winner of the Sicilian Open is certainly not out of the question and I fancy James Morrison is the best priced outsider in the field. Let's hope he's the one to produce the surprise.

The 2010 Madeira Islands Open winner enjoyed a fair finish to last season, contending in a number of events, with a third placed finish at the Iskandar Johor Open in November the highlight. He's started 2012 slowly but he showed an upturn in fortunes at last week's Tophee Hassan II where after a dreadful start (nine over par through just six holes!), he played quite well.

I fancy this week's links course will suit James and at [160.0] he looks over-priced.

At the Shell Houston Open I'm going to rely on someone who very nearly pulled off a monster win for me two years ago.

Graham DeLaet played most of the 2010 season with a bulging disc but still managed third place here (missing out on the playoff by just one stroke). The back injury worsened at the end of the year when the disc became herniated. Surgery last January virtually put paid to 2011 in its entirety and only now is he starting to play with regularity.

He's an immense talent with obvious course form and he could just give us a run for our money at a very big price.

Recommended Bets
Sicilian Open
1u James Morrison @ [160.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Shell Houston Open
1u Graham DeLaet @ [230.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +52 units

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Graham Regan: Thanks for the memories, Niche

Latest News / Paul Nicholls / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Niche Market in action

"The Niche has given us some brilliant days out and we feel it is our turn to look after him now."

Owner Graham Regan breaks the news that Niche Market has been retired following a tendon injury...

I am sad to report that we have retired Niche Market.

For a one-horse owner, The Niche has been a dream even since we got him as a six-year-old. He won the Irish Grand National in 2009, a BGC Silver Cup at Ascot in 2008 as well as finishing second in an Aon Chase and third in a Hennessy Gold Cup, fifth in last year's Grand National and a whole host of other good runs.

It all looked so promising when he finished second to Marufo at Newbury last weekend.

Timeform made that run the equal of anything he had achieved before, and we would have gone to the National 6lb well in. We were very much looking forward to Aintree before the news came from Paul that he had injured a tendon.

I have had better weeks, but, that said, I am certain that Paul has had better fortnights.

The Niche has given us some brilliant days out and we feel it is our turn to look after him now.

This is why we have reached the decision to retire him. We have found him a very good home, I have gifted The Niche to Harry Skelton, who was on board for his Fairyhouse win in 2009, and we know he will have a long and happy retirement at Nick Skelton's stables in Stratford.

This is simply another illustration of the ups and downs of the sport we all love.

Fresh from a busy morning at Ditcheat, Paul Nicholls provides an update on Kauto Star's progress......

More good news from Ditcheat, as Paul Nicholls announces a change of plan for Kauto Star this Friday. He also explains why it's important not to get too excited just yet......

Paul Nicholls provides an update on the fitness of Kauto Star following the fall he sustained in schooling......

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Graham Cunningham's Arc Sunday Tips

Longchamp Arc Meeting / Graham Cunningham / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will So You Think be the Arc winner?

"So You Think and Sarafina have the most persuasive credentials as win bets."

You wait ages for a big Group 1 contest and then seven come along all at once. The menu for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe day could hardly be more tempting and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has been lapping up the Parisian sunshine as he anticipates the jewel in the crown of the European Flat season.

So You Think and Hiruno to shine in a fiendishly difficult Arc

Nothing would please me more than to say I think I have the Arc 2011 winner up my sleeve. But, whichever way you slice it, this year's race looks very hard to solve. Timeform ratings have no fewer than nine horses within 7lb of each other and for most punters it's a case of trying to use a process of elimination to make the long list more manageable.

So here goes.

I'm very confident Sarafina (TF 138) will play a major role simply because she was very unlucky not to go close last year and has made serene progress towards a repeat bid. Her potent turn of foot could be very valuable.

And I'm equally confident that So You Think (TF 142) is a major player for the simple reason that his ten furlong form is just about the best on offer and there seems every reason to expect him to stay the extra quarter mile.

Last year's winner Workforce (TF 141) and Snow Fairy (TF 140) both tie in very closely with So You Think having finished just half-a-length behind him in the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes, while Danedream (TF 137), the highly progressive Galikova (TF 136p), Reliable Man (TF 135+), Masked Marvel (TF 135) and Meandre (TF 132) all boast high-class form and represent the three-year-old group who have won no fewer than 14 of the last 17 Arcs.

Hiruno D'Amour (TF 131) makes more appeal than last year's runner-up and fellow Japanese raider Nakayama Festa (TF 133+) based on their running behind Sarafina in the Prix Foy, but enough of the detail and onto my likely betting plan for this year's Arc.

The first point to make is that I won't be going overboard; the second point is that I can envisage a tight finish with luck in-running possibly playing an important part again; the third point is that I think that So You Think and Sarafina have the most persuasive credentials as regards win bets; and the fourth point is that Masked Marvel offers some place lay potential given that by far his best Timeform figure was recorded granted a much more demanding stamina test in the St Leger.

Recommended Bets
Back So You Think
Save on Hirono D'Amour
Place lay Masked Marvel

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Worthadd and Frankie to rain on Goldi's final French parade

It promises to be a long day in the sunshine if Sunday's Paris weather mirrors that of Saturday and my main punting action of the weekend will centre around the four Group 1 contests which lead up to the Arc.

Tangerine Trees is my live longshot for the Prix de l'Abbaye at 12.45.

Granted, he needs a career best to beat the likes of Prohibit and Margot Did, but he showed that he's in form of his life when defying a hefty penalty in the Beverley Bullet and his brazen early speed could be a big asset in a race where it can be very tricky to come from well off the pace.

Zantenda and Dabirsim will both be strong favourites for the Prix Marcel Boussac at 13:20 and the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at 13:55. I'm in no mood to oppose either.

Zantenda took a while to subdue Rajastani in the Prix d'Aumale over this course and distance but was nicely on top at the line.

The turn of foot she showed could well be the key factor against the front-running Elusive Kate and Fire Lily, while Dabirsim stamped himself as the leading juvenile colt in Europe by romping clear of Sofast in Deauville's Prix Morny and with the extra furlong here likely to suit it will come as a big surprise if he's beaten.

Goldikova's final appearance in France in the Prix de la Foret at 14:30 provides the perfect appetiser for the Arc and, despite having opposed the mighty mare to my cost in the past, I'm sorely tempted to take her on again in search of value.

The freewheeling Worthadd is the one who is doing the tempting. This Italian raider ran a screamer to chase home Canford Cliffs in Newbury's Lockinge Stakes in May and I'm inclined to forgive him a poor effort when well behind Goldi at Deauville last time on account of the fact that he was messed about by a couple of pacemakers.

I'm encouraged by the drop down to seven furlongs and I love the fact that Frankie will be aboard for the first time. In short, Worthadd makes clear each way appeal at [10.0] or bigger. In fact, he looks one of the best value bets of the entire weekend from where I'm standing.

Recommended Bets
12:45: Back Tangerine Trees win and place
13:20: Back Zantenda
13:55: Back Dabirsim
14:30: Back Worthadd win and place
.............
Timeform Race Cards for Arc Sunday are available now at timeform.com

Timeform give their opinion on each of the runners lining up in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.......

Isabel Mathew provides some helpful insights as she weighs up seven front runners in Sunday's big race at Longchamp......

Timeform's Flat Editor Jamie Lynch brings you his unique take on Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe......

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Guineas Festival: Graham Cunningham on Saturday

Guineas / Graham Cunningham / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is Frankel set for Guineas glory?

"Most likely, Frankel will use that raking stride to forge clear up the hill to give Cecil his 25th British Classic win and send the Newmarket faithful into raptures."

Friday was royal wedding day but on Saturday the mighty Frankel bids to crown himself king of the classic colts. All eyes are on Newmarket as the fiery Galileo colt bids to give Henry Cecil his 25th British Classic winner. Graham Cunningham pinpoints a clutch of betting angles in part one of his Guineas weekend focus.

If history tells us one thing it is that any horse can be beaten and logic suggests there are three ways Frankel can be beaten in Saturday's 2000 Guineas.

First, he might run below par for no obvious reason; second, his tendency to pull hard might prove a weakness on his biggest day yet; or third, one of his rivals might just spring up and record a top-notch performance to beat him fair and square as the pair pull clear.

But much the most likely scenario is that Frankel will use that raking stride to forge clear up the hill to give Cecil his 25th British Classic win and send the Newmarket faithful into raptures.

Granted, Frankel's habit of pulling hard early is a slight concern, but it hasn't stopped him winning four good races by a total of almost 30 lengths and, with potential dangers like Wootton Bassett, Dream Ahead and Dubai Prince all missing, I reckon he should be more like [1.4] than the current [1.57] available on Betfair.

However, the best Guineas value probably lies in using a little imagination in the place lay and without Frankel markets.

Those with a line into Coolmore seem to feel Dewhurst second Roderic O'Connor hasn't grown over the winter, but he thrived on racing at two and is the only horse to give Frankel anything like a race since his debut.

He looks capable of running a bold race on the pace again, while Casamento is another proven Group 1 performer who looks capable of outrunning long odds even though it is a shade worrying that his presence seems something of an afterthought after Godolphin were forced to scratch Dubai Prince.

On the lay front it looks like I will have to go pretty high to oppose Dubawi Gold in the place market. The risk looks worth taking, though, as Richard Hannon's colt is surely in much too deep here having been hard pushed to land a couple of Lingfield Listed contests this spring.

The older I get the less keen I am to commit in races where the market has yet to take shape properly, but the following points might be worth noting on the rest of the Guineas day card...

Proponent looks to have much more going than most in the opener at 14:00.

Roger Charlton's gelding is a past winner of this and hasn't gone backwards judged on several good efforts in top handicaps last year and a strong-finishing fourth on his Newbury reappearance.

These conditions suit and having Frankie on board for the first time is clearly no hardship.

Four of the sextet for the 14:30 look very closely matched but a split stakes ploy involving Laaheb and Dandino looks the safe ploy.

The market won't miss Laaheb. That said, he's a hugely reliable and uncomplicated horse with fitness on his side and leading form claims.

Dandino needs a lifetime best to win this, but the market might take a chance with him. Either way, he boasts a fine strike rate and looked better than ever when slamming a couple of useful rivals at Ripon.

I don't doubt that Astrophysical Jet is the most interesting horse in the Palace House at 15:45.

Whether Ed McMahon's filly is nap material first time out under a penalty is another matter, but AJ thrived last year and owns the sort of late burst which very few of her peers can match.

The freewheeling Jonny Mudball, Inxile and Tangerine Trees look bound to help force a searching gallop here, but even so I doubt they will go hard enough to allow Evens And Odds land a major blow.

He offers place lay potential on his first run over five furlongs since 2008, while Tangerine Trees is another for the place lay short list given that there seems zero chance of a soft lead at this level.

The 15:45 is tough to price up and even tougher to call. Fahey and Hanagan seldom err when it comes to assessing their horses and the jungle drums keep beating out a message suggesting that big things are expected of Alben Star this year.

If that's the case, a mark of 89 could prove very workable, while Regal Approval blotted his copybook at the stalls on his final start in 2010 but did enough before then to suggest that he is another with the scope to do some damage in valuable handicaps this year.

Much depends on how they bet in a 16:55 which looks wide open. The fact that Namibian recorded a career best here despite being hampered on his reappearance suggests that he ought to corner a fair chunk of the market.

If he does then I suspect I will be laying him. Mark Johnston's colt has shown a lazy streak on occasion and that might just cost him here against improvers like Cai Shen, Ocean War and Treasury Devil.

Timeform go through the runners for the first classic of the season......

A maximum field of fifteen will line up for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday, with Dream Ahead the most notable absentee at the latest declaration stage, whilst 23 have been declared for the 1000 on Sunday......

Paul Jacobs poses the questions at Billy Nash who gives an Irish perspective on the upcoming 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas while also looking at potential Irish raiders for the 2011 Flat season...

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Cheltenham 2011: Graham Cunningham's Day One tips

The Cheltenham Festival / Graham Cunningham / 14 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Menorah and Richard Johnson win last year. Will they have more success in 2011?

"Definity has definite back to lay potential in the Centenary Chase (17:15). Paul Nicholls seems sweet on this lightly-raced gelding and I can see why given how well he has travelled and jumped against smart rivals on his last two starts."

Graham Cunningham is on RUK duty at Prestbury Park this week and he's back on familiar territory on betting.betfair.com as he sets out to nominate the ones to be with and his four to swerve on Champion Hurdle day.

After one of the bleakest winters on record it's finally here. And the good news is Cheltenham 2011 promises one of the biggest betting showdowns ever seen as the cream of British and Irish jumping talent bang heads for the honour of being crowned a Festival hero.

The first point to make about Cheltenham is that there is simply no place like it if you come away a winner. And the second point to make about the Festival is that you can get wiped out completely if you lose the run of yourself. Thankfully, day one has been kind down the years and, with any luck, the following lays and plays will set the ball rolling for another memorable week.

1. The Arkle (14:05) has been a fertile punting ground in recent years and Medermit looks the solid option this year based on a clinical display of accurate jumping and smooth travelling in Grade 1 company at Sandown.

Alan King's grey also scores well in terms of Festival form, having been pipped in the Supreme Novices' two years ago and backing him to win with a slightly larger amount to place looks the canny call.

2. Slice it however you like, the Champion Hurdle (15:20) is wide open with little to choose between a posse of improving contenders who have studiously avoided each other for the most part.

It would be wrong to go at this gung ho as a result, but Menorah and Oscar Whisky appeal as a strong pair against the field. Menorah did me a huge favour in last year's Supreme Novices' and has never stopped improving since, while Oscar Whisky is similarly progressive and appeals as the best of the rest.

3. Bensalem and Great Endeavour form a powerful two-pronged attack on the Spinal Research Chase (14:40). There is no flash story here save that both horses look primed for big efforts. Bensalem was tanking along when he fell two out in this race last year and returns off the same mark after looking as good as ever over hurdles of late, while Great Endeavour is a proven Festival performer who jumps boldly and is unexposed at three miles.

4. Definity has definite back to lay potential in the Centenary Chase (17:15). Paul Nicholls seems sweet on this lightly-raced gelding and I can see why given how well he has travelled and jumped against smart rivals on his last two starts.

He ran a corker here over hurdles last spring, so Cheltenham ought to suit, and taking the best available win and place prices with a view to trading out short looks a very fair call.

5. Noel Meade seems confident that Realt Dubh will handle spring ground in the Arkle. But I'm not so sure. Granted, Realt Dubh has two Grade 1's under his belt over fences, but neither of them was anything like this strong and he looks a fair place lay contender.

6. Finding the weak links in the Champion Hurdle chain is tough, but I wonder whether Peddlers Cross might be worth taking on in the place market at [2.6] or under. Granted, he heads south unbeaten with a proven Festival record, but there are five horses ahead of him on official figures and he might just be found out for pace up the hill if the ground is good.

7. Blazing Bailey looks another with place lay potential in the Spinal Research Chase. He's hit the frame at three Festivals over hurdles and two handicap wins here and Ffos Las since the turn of the year show that he's right back on song at the age of nine. However, the handicapper has had a firm say for those successes. BB is 20lb higher than for the Cheltenham win and 7lb above his Ffos Las mark. And I suspect that will tell once things get tough here.

8. I haven't settled on a definite bet in the cross country chase at 16:00, but I will be laying Poker de Sivola in the place market for the simple reason that he's a virgin in this odd discipline and because his current form is questionable at best.

Ferdy Murphy primed this gelding to land the NH Chase here last year, but his overall record is very patchy and recent comments suggest this may well be a springboard towards the Scottish National.

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Even if you can't catch the action live at Cheltenham 2011, there's no need to feel beleaguered, as Jack Houghton explains in part two of his festival betting guide for the workers....

Timeform take you through the field for what is shaping up to be the most competitive Champion Hurdle in many a year......

Even if you can't swan off to Prestbury Park for the week, or even watch the action on TV, you can still have a profitable Cheltenham. Here's Jack Houghton's tips for the work bound bettor....

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