Showing posts with label RunnerbyRunner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RunnerbyRunner. Show all posts

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Timeform Morebattle Hurdle: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Doyly Carte had no chance with Annie Power last time and will find this easier, but narrow preference is for last year's winner Duke of Navan, who's been running at the top level this term and will appreciate the drop in class...

It's the Timeform-sponsored Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso on Thursday! Find out which horses we think will fight out the finish...

Duke of Navan won 3 of his 4 starts last term, including when showing much improved form to land this event. Out of depth in Grade 1s this season and expected to bounce back returned to a much more suitable level.

Bygones of Brid failed to match useful hurdles form over fences despite winning 2 Hexham novices in June. Second back over hurdles at Aintree in October but below par since. Firmly up against it.

Runswick Royal is a bumper winner who landed novices at Sedgefield and Newcastle early last year. Patchy form so far this season but stiffer test here will suit, and can't rule out on these terms.

Special Catch was an unlucky fifth at Aintree on final run last season and has continued on the up this term, winning convincingly at Haydock 8 weeks ago. Will find this tougher but likely to improve again.

Upsilon Bleu was a useful hurdler in France who won a Carlisle novice chase for this yard 11 months ago. Has posted solid efforts to find the frame on all 5 starts since and of interest back over hurdles now.

Doyly Carte won 3 of 5 starts over timber last season and even better form in defeat this term, no chance with Annie Power in Grade 2 event for mares at Doncaster last time. Facing nothing of that calibre here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Duke of Navan
2. Doyly Carte
3. Special Catch

Timeform View: A race that usually attracts some useful performers and this year's renewal looks a competitive one. Doyly Carte had no chance with Annie Power last time and will find this easier, but narrow preference is for last year's winner Duke of Navan, who's been running at the top level this term and will appreciate the drop in class.


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UAE 2000 Guineas: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Godolphin haven't always enjoyed great success with their recruits from Australia but few will have had better form than Long John and he should be good enough to win this

The UAE 2000 Guineas is the feature race on another good Meydan card and Timeform provide you with their assessment of the runners...

Safety Check was kept busy as a juvenile, winning 3 times, and would have pushed Emirates Flyer even closer on return had he not had to wait for a run. Already stays 1m but this looks a better race.

Jallota had just the one win for Mick Channon, but did hold his own in some good races, particularly when fourth to No Nay Never in the Prix Morny. Trip not guaranteed to suit on first start for new yard.

Paximadia won 4 of his 8 starts in Australia, including a Grade 2 at Caulfield when last seen. Interesting to see how he goes in the market compared to Long John.

Journeyman is nothing special judged on his 2 starts at Meydan this year, soundly beaten behind Emirates Flyer on return and looked hard work when fifth to He's No Saint last week. Others preferred.

Wednaan cost €450,000, and made a winning debut at Yarmouth last year. Runner-up has at least franked the form and he looks sure to improve a lot for that, so not ruled out despite lack of experience.

Long John won the Caulfied Guineas last year, one of five victories for Peter Snowden. Finished ahead of Shamus Award that day who won the Cox Plate (Long John behind) subsequently so form looks very strong.

My Catch was a  dual winner in France last year for David Brown, his only failure coming on soft ground. Ran well when third to Emirates Flyer on return but step up in trip not guaranteed to suit.

Nezar looked awkward at times last year, but still won twice including a nursery at Chester. Didn't put up much resistance behind Emirates Flyer on return and shouldn't be good enough.

Asmar is a half-brother to the top class Zagora (Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner) and has shaped with plenty of promise in a pair of maidens at this track. Will need to break on terms in this company.

Emirates Flyer can't be knocked for toughness or consistency, and made it 3 wins from 7 starts when beating Safety Check here last time. Should be fine at the trip but this is a better race.

Full Combat has one win from his 4 starts in South Africa last year, and not totally disgraced in a Grade 1 on his final start. Eyecatching return when fifth to Emirates Flyer and could easily reverse form.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Long John
2. Full Combat
3. Asmer

Timeform View: Godolphin haven't always enjoyed great success with their recruits from Australia but few will have had better form than Long John and he should be good enough to win this. Full Combat can improve past several who contested the prep for this race and chase him home whilst a big run from the maiden, Asmar, wouldn't surprise, although he does need to break better than he has done to date.


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Sunday, August 11, 2013

Epsom Derby: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

The unbeaten Dawn Approach is a confident selection to confirm his stamina and become the third 2000 Guineas winner in the last 5 years to follow up at Epsom...

Timeform analyse the chances of each runner in the 2013 Derby... 

Battle of Marengo has done little wrong since debut, improving again when winning Derrinstown Trial at Leopardstown, beating Criterium winner Loch Garman. Step up in trip will suit in first-time cheekpieces.

Chopin was supplemented for $75,000 by new owner on back of impressive 8-length success in 8.5f Group 3, beating subsequent German Guineas runner-up. Certain he has more to offer stepped up in trip.

Dawn Approach is a top-class and unbeaten son of the 2008 Derby winner New Approach, and was most impressive when winning the Guineas on return last month by 5 lengths. Potential stamina doubt looks the only chink in his armour.

Festive Cheer was an easy winner of a Dundalk maiden at 2 yrs that worked out well and improved again when narrow third in 11f Longchamp Group 2 on return. Further step up in trip will suit.

Flying The Flag is out of the Irish Guineas and Nassau winner Halfway To Heaven, but looks down the Ballydoyle pecking order here having been held in the French and Irish Guineas so far this year.

Galileo Rock looks all stamina, closely related to high-class stayer Saddler's Rock. Not beaten far in 1¼m Sandown Classic Trial on return and will relish longer trip, but possibly more of a Leger type.

Libertarian was held by Galileo Rock at Sandown but dented some lofty reputations when running out impressive winner of the Dante subsequently, finding plenty. Step up in trip will suit but a lot more needed here.

Mars was favourite for this even before he won 7f Dundalk maiden in good style last summer. Encouraging sixth in the Guineas only run since and will have plenty more to offer over middle distances.

Mirsaale booked his place in the field with success in the 1¼m trial at the course in April. Longer trip will be no problem but has a mountain to climb on form to get involved.

Ocean Applause is a fairly useful maiden but hasn't beaten another rival on his last 2 starts. Impossible to make a case for in refitted headgear.

Ocovango is an unbeaten French-trained colt who made all readily in 1¼m Group 3 Prix Greffulhe last month. Trainer landed same race before scoring in this with Pour Moi in 2011 and should improve up in trip.

Ruler of The World is a Galileo half-brother to Duke of Marmalade. Another trial winner for Ballydoyle when running away with Chester Vase in first-time cheekpieces, storming clear. Respected with stamina assured.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Dawn Approach
2. Mars
3. Chopin

Timeform View: The unbeaten Dawn Approach is a confident selection to confirm his stamina and become the third 2000 Guineas winner in the last 5 years to follow up at Epsom. Ballydoyle will clearly have a major say over how matters unfold with Mars and Battle of Marengo arguably the pick of their hopefuls, while Chopin, the first-ever German-trained runner in the race, can also reach the frame.

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Friday, May 10, 2013

Ormonde Stakes: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Mount Athos has finally realised his potential since joining this yard, completing hat-trick in Group 3 at Newbury before good fifth in Melbourne Cup..."

Timeform provide you with a runner-by runner guide to the feature race on the final day of Chester's May meeting, the Ormonde Stakes...

Communicator is generally still on the upgrade, showing useful form when taking 1½m handicap here in August. Good efforts in defeat since but bit to find with principals on return.

Mad Moose is a seful handicap hurdler/chaser but has refused to race last 2 starts in that sphere. Showed near-useful form when winning Doncaster maiden on belated Flat bow 2 weeks ago but this is a big ask.

Memphis Tennesse has quickly progressed into a smart performer at 3, making frame in Derby/Irish Derby. Made all in this event on return last year before shaped as if amiss in Hardwicke. Big player if on form.

Mount Athos has finally realised his potential since joining this yard, completing hat-trick in Group 3 at Newbury before good fifth in Melbourne Cup. Latest run easily forgiven and leading conteder.

Zafarqand is a stoutly-bred gelding who made a highly promising start when second in Gowran maiden 13 months ago for John Oxx. Not seen since, however, and facing a tall order on debut for new yard.

Luthien has little solid form over a variety of trips and hopelessly out of her depth.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Mount Athos
2. Memephis Tennesse
3. Communicator

Timeform View: This looks a match between Mount Athos and Memphis Tennessee. The latter won this cosily on his return last year but there are slight doubts about his wellbeing given he's not been seen since finishing tailed off at Royal Ascot in June, so Luca Cumani's charge is marginally preferred.

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Huxley Stakes: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Andrew Balding holds a strong hand with Highland Knight and Bonfire, and it's the former who gets the vote after his good second in a Group 2 at Sandown recently...

Timeform analyse each runner in a competitive renewal of the Huxley Stakes at Chester...

Bonfire landed the Dante on return last year but rather let down by his flighty temperament thereafter. Just a respectable third in Group 3 at Newmarket on reappearance and needs to build on that.

Danadana made giant strides last year, scoring at Newmarket, Redcar and York. Looks ready for a step up in grade on return for in-form yard.

Dick Doughtywylie won a maiden over C&D in 2011, and belatedly back to that form to land a minor event at Doncaster last September. Good fifth in Group 3 at Sandown on return but another step up required.

Gabrial progressed well at 3 yrs, landing Silver Bowl at Haydock, and looked better than ever when winning listed race at Doncaster on return, albeit hanging badly right. Worth another try at this trip.

Highland Knight was better than ever last year, winning listed race at Pontefract and Group 2 event at Baden-Baden. Better for return when second in Group 2 at Sandown last time and strong contender if seeing out trip.

Miblish posted some creditable efforts in defeat in 2012 and has improved again both starts this year, making all in listed event at Kempton last time. More needed but that entirely possible.

Rewarded walked over on return last year before following up in 1m handicap at Newmarket in May. Not disgraced in better company since but likely to prove vulnerable again.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Highland Knight
2. Danadana 
3. Bonfire

Timeform View: Andrew Balding holds a strong hand with Highland Knight and Bonfire, and it's the former who gets the vote after his good second in a Group 2 at Sandown recently. Gabrial and Danadana also need considering.

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Thursday, April 25, 2013

Punchestown Gold Cup: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Sir Des Champs has graduated into a top-class chaser this term, winning Irish Hennessy before giving best only late on when second to Bobs Worth..."

Timeform guide you through a fascinating renewal of the Gold Cup, staged at 17:30 on Wednesday...

Captain Chris won at this meeting in 2011. Better than ever when second in King George (beaten neck by Long Run) and Ascot Chase this term, but needs to bounce back from below-form sixth in Gold Cup last time.

Chicago Grey got back to best when springing a bit of a surprise in Navan Grade 2 in February. Probably best to forgive subsequent poor run in Grand National but biting off more than he can chew at this level.

First Lieutenant has posted solid efforts at the top level since tried in cheekpieces, second in Lexus and Ryanair before going one better in Betfred Bowl at Aintree earlier this month. Sure to give it his usual good shot.

Kauto Stone beat First Lieutenant at Down Royal in November. Flopped in King George next time and no better back over hurdles in January, but wouldn't be a massive shock if he bounced back after short break.

Long Run wore down Captain Chris to land a second King George in December. Good third in Gold Cup in cheekpieces (on again), but has 2¾ lengths to make up with Sir des Champs on that running.

Quito De La Roque is a high-class chaser who returned to best to win Thurles Grade 2 in January and another good effort when fourth to First Lieutenant at Aintree last time. Likely to come up little short again.

Riverside Theatre was a top-class performer at his best, winning Ascot Chase and Ryanair last season. Better effort this term when fourth to Cue Card at Cheltenham last time but was never going with much fluency.

Sir Des Champs was unbeaten during his novice season and has graduated into a top-class chaser this term, winning Irish Hennessy before giving best only late on when second to Bobs Worth in Gold Cup last time.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Sir Des Champs
2. First Lieutenant
3. Long Run

Timeform Verdict: A cracking renewal of this Grade 1 prize. Sir Des Champs is likely to be tough to beat if fully recovered from a hard race in the Gold Cup, with the same owner's First Lieutenant just preferred to Long Run for the forecast spot.

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Friday, April 5, 2013

Grand National 2013: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Timeform take you through all 40 horses scheduled to line up in the 2013 Grand National.

Imperial Commander (trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies/jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies) is bidding to become the third Gold Cup winner (after Golden Miller and L'Escargot) to also land the Grand National, and is potentially very well treated on his 2010 Gold Cup form despite top weight here. He's had training setbacks since his comeback second at Cheltenham in January, will be without regular jockey Paddy Brennan (suspended) and has stamina to prove, though.

What A Friend (Paul Nicholls/Sam Thomas) was among the favourites off just a 1 lb lower mark when pulled up in the 2011 Grand National but has been operating below his best since, his attitude looking suspect, and he's likely to be among the outsiders this time around.

Weird Al (Donald McCain/Timmy Murphy) is a high-class chaser on his day, but is fragile and has been far more out than in over past 15 months, while he didn't really take to the course prior to falling four out (when beaten) in this race last year.

Quel Esprit (Willie Mullins/Paul Townend) has clearly been campaigned with this race in mind and shaped well until the lack of a recent run told behind Sir des Champs in the Irish Hennessy on his belated return. Has been given a chance by the handicapper, but three big-race falls earlier in his career does rather temper enthusiasm.

Big Fella Thanks (Tom George/Denis O'Regan) has completed on all four tries over these fences, including when fourth in the 2010 Grand National, and has been revitalised by a change of yards this winter, proving as good as ever when winning at Wincanton in January. However, that was over a much shorter trip and he has always been found wanting for stamina in this race.

Seabass (Ted Walsh/Katie Walsh) was sent off joint-favourite when finishing five lengths third to Neptune Collonges in this race a year ago, jumping impressively and tiring only after the last. He's ultra-consistent (finished a perfectly respectable third to Roi du Mee at Fairyhouse on recent chase return) and should give another good account, but 5 lb higher mark this time round might just stop him winning.

Roberto Goldback (Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty) is trained by Nicky Henderson, who has yet to saddle a Grand National winner, and this giant 11-year-old is his sole hope this year. Ran out a wide-margin winner at Ascot on his debut for the yard in the autumn and has slipped back down the weights since, so could perform better than recent form figures suggest he might.

Sunnyhillboy (Jonjo O'Neill/Richie McLernon) was pipped by Neptune Collonges in the closest-ever Grand National finish last year, when he took surprisingly well to the course considering he'd had jumping issues earlier in his career. He has been restricted to just two hurdling starts since (withdrawn from Gold Cup following a bad scope) and 10 lb higher mark could leave him vulnerable.

Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/Jason Maguire) provided the McCain family with their fifth Grand National win in 2011, the first three of which came courtesy of Red Rum. That horse remains the only multiple National winner in the past 77 years, with Ballabriggs managing only sixth when defending his crown in 2012, and he hasn't really shown enough this season to suggest he'll be up to taking advantage of a slipping mark.

Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis/Nick Scholfield) narrowly failed to justify favouritism in the Welsh National in January and would probably be even shorter in the betting here but for a rare poor run next time, when he was possibly still feeling effects of that Chepstow effort. His prominent style of racing, combined with notably fluent jumping technique, has long marked him down as an ideal candidate for the Grand National.

Across The Bay (Donald McCain/Henry Brooke) has proved better than ever since joining Donald McCain last season, winning decent prizes over both fences and hurdles this winter, but his lazy style of racing, plus sometimes suspect jumping, are far from ideal for Aintree and he's likely to struggle with conditions forecast to be less than testing.

Join Together (Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob) has long appealed as an out-and-out stayer, whilst he also took well to these fences when a fast-finishing second in the Becher Chase in December. His last run at Doncaster is easily overlooked (badly hampered early) but he looks plenty high enough in the weights now, while he sometimes doesn't live up to expectations on the big-race stage.

Colbert Station (Ted Walsh/AP McCoy) represents the same stable as 2000 winner Papillon- as well as Seabass- and appeals as one of the most progressive runners in the field, having won the valuable Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Colbert Station remains open to improvement and is the choice of champion jockey AP McCoy (who could also have ridden Sunnyhillboy), though he arguably lacks experience for this test having had only had five starts over fences. 

Forpadydeplasterer (Tom Cooper/Andrew J McNamara) isn't the force of old, despite winning a three-mile minor event at Thurles back in the autumn, and stepping into a huge unknown with regards to the trip (best form at up to 21 furlongs). Others make much more appeal.

On His Own (Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh) looked a natural over these fences in this race 12 months ago until hesitating and coming down at second Becher's. Jumping could again be his Achilles' heel given his relative lack of experience, but he's racing off the same mark and looked better than ever in his comeback win over hurdles. He's a must for the shortlist with Ruby Walsh taking over in the saddle.

Joncol (Paul Nolan/Robbie Power) was a dual Grade 1-winning chaser in 2009/10, but he's seemingly not the force of old nowadays (has hinted at a physical problem) and is easy to oppose here even though his allotted handicap mark reflects his slide.

Balthazar King (Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson) is an enthusiastic front runner who has done very well since trying his hand at cross-country chasing, the same route taken by 2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch, but looks to be plenty high enough in the weights now.

Cappa Bleu (Evan Williams/Paul Moloney) represents connections who have made the frame in each of the last four Grand Nationals, and finished a staying-on fourth himself behind Neptune Collonges in 2012. Arguably left with too much to do on that occasion, so he's very much one to consider off a 2 lb lower mark this time around, particularly after an encouraging second at Ascot on his final prep run.

Oscar Time (Martin Lynch/Sam Waley-Cohen) is ridden by amateur jockey Sam Waley-Choen, who has a terrific record over these fences, most famously when pairing up with Oscar Time (off this mark) to finish second to Ballabriggs in the 2011 National. However, the horse is now 12 and hasn't looked the force of old this winter.

Always Waining (Peter Bowen/Tom O'Brien) reserves his best for these fences nowadays, having won the last three renewals of the Topham Chase, held the day before the National. Finally gets his chance to tackle this race, but he has always looked a non-stayer over this sort of trip and connections would have surely been better off going for the shorter race again.

Tatenen (Richard Rowe/Andrew Thornton) won at Ascot from a 1 lb lower mark in January of last year, but doesn't stay beyond three miles and unseated his rider at the first Canal Turn in last year's National, while his form since has been patchy.

Treacle (Tom Taaffe/Andrew Lynch) is a smart stayer and comes here fresh after a light campaign, winning a minor event at Down Royal last month. Didn't really take to these fences in the 2012 race, however, already a fair way back when falling at the tenth.

Lost Glory (Jonjo O'Neill/Mark Walsh) was a prolific winner over both hurdles and fences during early months of both 2011/12 and 2012/13, though he hasn't been seen since winning at Chepstow back in October and likely to find this too tough.

Swing Bill (David Pipe/Conor O'Farrell) has coped pretty well on three of four tries over these fences, though fourth place in this season's Becher Chase is the closest he's come to winning and he will surely find it too much to win this race off a career-high mark at the age of 12.

Saint Are (Tim Vaughan/Dougie Costello) clearly suits Aintree in the spring, as his two wins over jumps have come in big races at this meeting in 2011 and 2012. Sketchy jumping strongly suggests that he won't be completing the hat-trick in the biggest test of all, however.

Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/Paul Carberry) had been without a win since the 2011 Cheltenham Festival until springing a surprise at Navan in February, shortly after the Grand National weights were announced. He's duly one of the best-handicapped runners, so clearly warrants respect for all the jumping issues he's had in the past (admittedly not at fault when making an early exit in this race last year).

Quiscover Fontaine (Willie Mullins/David Casey) shaped quite well until falling at the seventeenth when an outsider in the 2012 renewal, but hasn't offered much in three starts this winter, whilst both his trainer and owner appear to have far stronger candidates elsewhere.

Rare Bob (Dessie Hughes/Bryan Cooper) has gone without a win for some time, but he's much better handicapped than that might suggest: he's actually weighted to reverse placings with Seabass from Fairyhouse in February. A strong-travelling sort who usually jumps well (brought down at the fifth in 2012 Grand National), he holds strong each-way claims.

The Rainbow Hunter (Kim Bailey/Aidan Coleman) is trained by Kim Bailey, who saddled Mr Frisk to National glory in 1990, but unfortunately this nine-year-old isn't anything like so fluent a jumper as that one and those jumping frailties must temper enthusiasm here, for all he's looked an improved performer this winter.

Becauseicouldntsee (Noel Glynn/Martin Ferris) is a giant gelding but he didn't last long in either the 2011 (fell second) or 2012 (unseated eighth) renewals of this race. Hinted at a return to form with a tongue strap fitted at Cheltenham last month, but still easy to oppose here.

Harry The Viking (Paul Nicholls/Ryan Mahon) has been disappointing since finishing runner-up to Teaforthree over 4m at last year's Cheltenham Festival, but probably needed run there last time and may well emerge as best of the Paul Nicholls trio, though that still may not be good enough.

Mr Moonshine (Sue Smith/Peter Buchanan) is undoubtedly useful on his day, finishing second in a Grade 3 at Wetherby over Christmas from a 1 lb higher mark than this, but he's folded tamely on both starts since and is difficult to fancy here.

Mumbles Head (Peter Bowen/Jamie Moore) enjoyed something of an Indian summer during early months of 2012/13. Often let down by jumping in big-field handicap chases, however, and fell heavily at the first fence in the Becher Chase in December.

Ninetieth Minute (Tom Taaffe/Niall Madden) won the Coral Cup in a past life, but his form over fences has been patchy and seldom anywhere near as good, so he's very difficult to fancy. 

Auroras Encore (Sue Smith/Ryan Mania) often comes into his own at this time of year, including when finishing a narrow runner-up in the Scottish National last term. Potentially well handicapped on that effort, but form has been very in-and-out since.

Tarquinius (Gordon Elliott/Wilson Renwick) was much improved after joining Gordon Elliott last summer, winning three times and finishing a narrow second in the Thystes Chase since. He's handicapped right up to his best now and will need to find oodles of improvement.

Any Currency (Martin Keighley/Ian Popham) tends to save his best for marathon events, a trend which has continued this season, but has looked exposed from this mark of late and is probably too lazy to make an impact in this. He also failed to complete on his only start over these fences.

Major Malarkey (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Tom Scudamore) has become a feature in decent staying handicaps, his best effort this season coming when a neck second in the London National in December, but he's without a win in well over two years and is unlikely to break that pattern in the Grand National.

Soll (Jo Hughes/Mark Grant) got back to his best when making all at Sandown last month, when he was aided by a very bold display of jumping. He should stay long distances, but he found it all too much in both the Hennessy and Welsh National earlier in the season and this will be no easier.

Viking Blond (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Adam Wedge) tends to go from the front, a tactic which has brought some success, notably when he finished third in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham in November. Bad days far outnumber his good ones, though, and weak finishes on two of his last three starts hardly encourages.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. On His Own
2. Rare Bob
3. Cappa Bleu

Timeform view: On His Own's market position looks justified and he can become the first winner from Ireland since 2007. Gordon Elliott was the last trainer to take the prize back across the Irish Sea and saddles the potentially well-handicapped Chicago Grey. At a bigger price Rare Bob makes plenty of each-way appeal for Dessie Hughes, while Cappa Bleu is unlikely to be far away again with a clear round.

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Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Queen Mother Champion Chase: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Sprinter Sacre is unbeaten in seven starts over fences, beating Cue Card impressively in the Arkle last term. Imperious when landing Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler this season, and hard to envisage defeat here.

Timeform take you through the 2013 renewal of the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Mail de Bievre Was a smart chaser in France, winning 3 times at up to 2¾m. Shorter trip likely to suit after impressing for a long way in Denman Chase on British debut, but still plenty to find.

Sanctuaire bounced back from a poor show behind Sprinter Sacre to land Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton, but slammed again by that rival reverting to waiting tactics last time, and bit to prove now.

Sizing Europe won this in 2011 and second last year. As good as ever in 4 runs this season, readily landing sixth Grade 1 over Christmas, but may need Sprinter Sacre to underperform to regain his crown.

Somersby deservedly landed a big prize when winning Victor Chandler last season. Cheekpieces refitted after performing slightly below best for new yard this term, but likely to struggle again.

Sprinter Sacre is unbeaten in seven starts over fences, beating Cue Card impressively in the Arkle last term. Imperious when landing Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler this season, and hard to envisage defeat here.

Tataniano is a fine jumper who has been lightly raced in recent times, making all to score on sole outing at Chepstow last season, but below best both comeback runs before Christmas, and out of his depth here.

Wishfull Thinking has come back to very best this season, scything down rivals late to land a Grade 2 at Newbury in February. Not the easiest to predict, though, and did fall early in this race a year ago.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Sprinter Sacre
2. Sizing Europe
3. Wishfull Thinking

Timeform's view: While the presence of potential front runners Sizing Europe and Mail de Bievre should ensure a thrilling spectacle, the race is likely to be set up perfectly for the strong-travelling Sprinter Sacre, who has looked nigh on unbeatable this term. Sizing Europe is still a top-class force on his day and can prove best of the rest, while Wishfull Thinking, often patiently ridden these days, may pick up the pieces for third.

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Champion Hurdle: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Hurricane Fly has looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago..."

Timeform analyse the feature on the opening day of Cheltenham 2013, the Champion Hurdle...

Balder Succes gained sole win this season in minor event at Haydock and has had limitations exposed at a higher level, running about as well as could be expected when third to Zarkandar at Wincanton last time.        
Binocular won Champion Hurdle in 2010 and 6½ lengths fourth to Rock On Ruby 12 months ago. Encouraging return when third to easy winner Hurricane Fly in Irish Champion and should be in hunt for minor honours.        
Cinders And Ashes completed a 4-timer when successful in 2012 Supreme Novices'. Not at best in testing conditions in his 2 runs this term, fifth in Christmas Hurdle latest outing. Something to prove now.            
Countrywide Flame was a game winner of Triumph Hurdle, and stepped up again with easy success in Fighting Fifth on return. Stuck to task behind Rock On Ruby after forcing pace at Doncaster latest, but more needed.      
Grandouet beat Overturn in Grade 2 here in 2011 and excellent second to Zarkandar in corresponding race when next seen. Missed prep race due to minor problem but okay now and looks a leading player.                  
Hurricane Fly won 2011 Champion Hurdle and unbeaten since third in 2012 renewal, easily accounting for Thousand Stars and Binocular in Irish Champion last time. Every chance of reclaiming crown.                
Khyber Kim finished second to Binocular in this in 2010. Rejoined Nicky Henderson/off nearly 2 years before fair return when runner-up to Zarkandar at Wincanton, but even pick of best form sees him fall short.        
Rock On Ruby's best performances last 2 seasons have come at the Festival, winning well-run Champion Hurdle 12 months ago. May not get similar end-to-end gallop this time, but in good form, and now blinkered.              
Zarkandar's only defeat when completing over jumps came when fifth in this last year and looks an improved performer this season, beating 2 of these in International here in December. Bold bid expected.        
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Hurricane Fly 
2. Zarkandar
3. Grandouet

Timeform Verdict: Hurricane Fly can become only the second horse to regain the Champion Hurdle title after Comedy of Errors (1975). He's looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago. Rock On Ruby may not have the race go as ideally for him as it did last year, so bigger dangers could emerge in the shape of Zarkandar, unbeaten this term, and Grandouet.            

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Monday, March 11, 2013

Champion Hurdle: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Hurricane Fly has looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago..."

Timeform analyse the feature on the opening day of Cheltenham 2013, the Champion Hurdle...

Balder Succes gained sole win this season in minor event at Haydock and has had limitations exposed at a higher level, running about as well as could be expected when third to Zarkandar at Wincanton last time.        
Binocular won Champion Hurdle in 2010 and 6½ lengths fourth to Rock On Ruby 12 months ago. Encouraging return when third to easy winner Hurricane Fly in Irish Champion and should be in hunt for minor honours.        
Cinders And Ashes completed a 4-timer when successful in 2012 Supreme Novices'. Not at best in testing conditions in his 2 runs this term, fifth in Christmas Hurdle latest outing. Something to prove now.            
Countrywide Flame was a game winner of Triumph Hurdle, and stepped up again with easy success in Fighting Fifth on return. Stuck to task behind Rock On Ruby after forcing pace at Doncaster latest, but more needed.      
Grandouet beat Overturn in Grade 2 here in 2011 and excellent second to Zarkandar in corresponding race when next seen. Missed prep race due to minor problem but okay now and looks a leading player.                  
Hurricane Fly won 2011 Champion Hurdle and unbeaten since third in 2012 renewal, easily accounting for Thousand Stars and Binocular in Irish Champion last time. Every chance of reclaiming crown.                
Khyber Kim finished second to Binocular in this in 2010. Rejoined Nicky Henderson/off nearly 2 years before fair return when runner-up to Zarkandar at Wincanton, but even pick of best form sees him fall short.        
Rock On Ruby's best performances last 2 seasons have come at the Festival, winning well-run Champion Hurdle 12 months ago. May not get similar end-to-end gallop this time, but in good form, and now blinkered.              
Zarkandar's only defeat when completing over jumps came when fifth in this last year and looks an improved performer this season, beating 2 of these in International here in December. Bold bid expected.        
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Hurricane Fly 
2. Zarkandar
3. Grandouet

Timeform Verdict: Hurricane Fly can become only the second horse to regain the Champion Hurdle title after Comedy of Errors (1975). He's looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago. Rock On Ruby may not get the end-to-end gallop he did last year, so bigger dangers could emerge in the shape of Zarkandar, unbeaten this term, and Grandouet.            

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Friday, March 8, 2013

Imperial Cup: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Tominator was a useful stayer on Flat who is progressing over hurdles and is the type to do well now handicapping in this sphere..."

Timeform guide you through the field for Saturday's feature event, the Imperial Cup at Sandown...

Tanerko Emery has been most progressive since switched to this yard, landing novice at Stratford and handicaps over C&D and Lingfield before excellent third in Welsh Champion Hurdle last month. Likely to improve further.

Mr Mole landed Hereford bumper on debut and won on hurdling bow at Exeter (17f) in October. Made mockery of lenient initial mark when beating Home Run at Taunton last month and 12 lb rise looks fair.

General Miller was a leading novice hurdler in 2009/10. Very lightly raced since, fine second to Overturn in 2m Perth handicap in August 2011 and not knocked about when down field on return at Ascot last month.

Valdez was a dual-bumper scorer who didn't take long to do likewise over hurdles this term, landing odds at Huntingdon and Plumpton. Good third under double penalty at Doncaster since, and not dismissed.

Claret Cloak was a bumper winner who ended last season with brace of novice wins over 2m. Shaped well when third in listed handicap at Ascot on return and excused below par run on soft ground in Betfair Hurdle since.

Arnaud won 2m maiden at Limerick last term and fifth in Fred Winter at Cheltenham. Back to best when second in minor event at Cork in January, and though found out in Grade 2 next time is still worth a look.

Shammick Boy was a dual hurdles winner in 2011 who was hit and miss over fences last season, but back to best over timber when beating Whitby Jack in 2m Chepstow handicap 2 weeks ago. Should go well again.

Le Bacardy was prolific in France in 2012, winning 5 times. Claimed for £12,520 in December and better than ever to take 2m Newbury handicap earlier this month. 12 lb rise will make life tougher here, however.

Kazlian looked impressive when bagging brace of wins last term, and better than result when fourth in Fred Winter. Well held in couple of handicaps in the mud this time around, but far too soon to write off.

Minella Definitely was an Irish point winner who made winning start over hurdles at Kempton in November and landed 11-runner novice event at Wincanton last month, though given stiff-looking mark here on handicap bow.

Changing The Guard has shown form more in-keeping with his Flat ability in handicap hurdles around 2m this season, winning 3 times in total. Suspicion handicapper has him about right now, however.

First Avenue was bang in contention when coming down at last in C&D handicap in November. Shaped as if still in good form when sixth at Ascot 6 weeks later, though will remain vulnerable to less-exposed sorts.

Pine Creek had some useful form to his name at up to 1¾m on Flat in France for Andre Fabre and progressive over hurdles this year, scoring in novices at Leicester and Doncaster. Open to more improvement.

First In The Queue returned to very best when runner-up in 2m Ascot handicap in November. Unsuited by conditions last 2 hurdle starts (third in jumpers' bumper at Kempton in between), but even so, others preferred.

Stormy Weather was a dual hurdles winner last season who made winning chasing debut at Wetherby (2m) in November. Has regressed over fences, but new headgear combination and return to timber may re-kindle his spark.

Tominator was a useful stayer on Flat who is progressing over hurdles, taking 17f Bangor novice in October and back on scoreboard in similar event over C&D last month. Type to do well now handicapping in this sphere.

Paintball returned from breathing op with career best to land this event 12 months ago. Hasn't come close to matching that in 5 starts since, but return to this venue may bring about a return to form.

Whitby Jack landed 2m Kempton handicap in January. Never looked like justifying support at Ascot next time, but back on track when runner up to Shammick Boy at Chepstow a fortnight ago, so folly to dismiss.

Solaras Exhibition was in form of his life in first half of last year, following up victories over hurdles at Sedgefield and Ffos Las with success on Flat at Chester. Should be better for recent pipe-opener on AW. 

Cayman Islands showed marked improvement when opening hurdling account at Musselburgh (2m) in January. Stamina stretched when runner-up over 2½m at that venue next time and unseated early at Towcester since.

Sporting Boy quickly climbed handicap ranks last year, winning 4 times, and there was enough in his sixth-place finish at Wetherby last week to suggest he'll remain competitive from this sort of mark.

Rockawango won listed hurdle at Auteuil in September and matched that form when second in 2m Ayr handicap on third start for this yard last month, though it's likely he'll find a few better treated here.

Barizan was a front-running Grade 1-winning juvenile hurdler in 2010. Attitude took turn for worse after, but took advantage of drop in weights to beat Home Run in 17f Taunton handicap last time.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Tominator
2. Mr Mole
3. Kazlian

Timeform Verdict: Mr Mole got the better of subsequent Grade 1 winner Melodic Rendezvous earlier this term, and merits respect, while it would be no surprise to see Kazlian bounce back to form here, but it's the useful Flat performer Tominator who gets the vote, racing from a lenient-looking initial hurdles mark.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

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Saturday, April 14, 2012

Grand National: Timeform runner-by-runner guide

Grand National Betting RSS / / 14 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Who will win the Grand National?

Who will win the Grand National?

"Cappa Bleu's strong-travelling style should stand him in good stead at Aintree and he is very much one for the shortlist..."

Timeform run the rule over the runners for the most famous race in the world, the Grand National at Aintree...

Synchronised (Jonjo O'Neill/Tony McCoy) has history against him as no Gold Cup winner has followed up at Aintree since 1934, but it should be noted that he's one of the better-handicapped runners in the field, whilst he's also clearly not dependent on the mud to show his best nowadays. That said, his idiosyncratic jumping technique isn't ideal for Aintree and could see him getting further back than ideal.

Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/Jason Maguire) is another runner hoping to overcome bleak historical trends, as there have been only two back-to-back Grand National winners in the last 142 years. In truth, a 10 lb higher mark than when winning the 2011 renewal looks the biggest obstacle to overcome but, given how well he took to the course then, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see him make another bold bid.

Weird Al (Donald McCain/Timmy Murphy) was better than ever upon joining this yard in the autumn, winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and finishing a fine third behind Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase. His training problems clearly aren't a thing of the past, however, and it's difficult to fancy him following a miserable effort in the Gold Cup last time (reportedly broke a blood vessel).

Neptune Collonges (Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob) is still capable of high-class form despite his advancing years, good placed efforts under big weights at Sandown and Haydock (runner-up to Giles Cross) last two starts. Not handicapped out of things and has a racing style that could be well suited to this course.

Calgary Bay (Henrietta Knight/Dominic Elsworth) got no further than the fourth in 2011 National, but is usually a very safe conveyance. Doubtful stayer over 4½m, though, whilst he's also plenty high enough in the weights following back-to-back wins at Cheltenham and Doncaster.

Alfa Beat (John Joseph Hanlon/Davy Russell) won second successive Kerry National back in the autumn, but seems too high in the weights now as a result, whilst he didn't take to these fences when a faller in last year's Topham.

Planet of Sound (Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson) handles top of the ground well and has returned with typically honest placed efforts in the Hennessy at Newbury and Racing Plus Chase at Kempton this term. Hasn't got anything in hand of the handicapper, though, and stamina also to prove over this marathon trip.

Black Apalachi (Dessie Hughes/Denis O'Regan) was a runaway winner of 2008 Becher Chase, who also cut a very bold sight over these fences when runner-up to Don't Push It off this mark in 2010 National. Now thirteen, but signs of retaining much of that ability when a keeping-on second to Prince de Beauchene at Fairyhouse on recent comeback and shouldn't be written off, particularly as Denis O'Regan has opted to renew his association with him instead of riding Giles Cross.

Deep Purple (Evan Williams/Jamie Moore) coped surprisingly well with longer trip when winning London National at Sandown in December, but has shaped as if amiss on most other starts in recent seasons.

Junior (David Pipe/Tom Scudamore) has been trained with this race inmind ever since running away with last season's Kim Muir at Cheltenham.Warmed up with a narrow second to Ikorodu Road (winner since) at Doncaster last time and clearly warrants respect, though it's possible he neither travels nor jumps quite fluently enough for this unique test.

Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/Paul Carberry) is a thorough stayer who won 2011 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and has been campaigned with this race in mind since, with the booking of Paul Carberry clearly an asset over these fences. Exaggerated waiting tactics adopted on him earlier in the season not certain to suit here, though.

Tatanen (Richard Rowe/Andrew Thornton) won valuable 21f handicap for second successive year at Ascot in January, but he is high in the weights as a result and has stamina to prove for this kind of test.

Seabass (Ted Walsh/Katie Walsh) represents the same stable as 2000 National winner Papillon, and heads to Aintree on an upward curve too, having won each of his last six starts, the latest one coming in a Grade 2 event over 2m. This marathon trip a completely unknown quantity with him, though.

Shakalakaboomboom (Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty) took well to these fences when seventh in the 2011 Topham as a novice and has progressed nicely since then, winning twice prior to finishing a fine second to Calgary Bay at Doncaster in January. Now 5 lb higher in theweights and suitability for this extreme test not guaranteed.

West End Rocker (Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson) took a luckless exit in 2011 National, but coped fine with these fences when runaway winner of Becher Chase under very testing conditions in December. Seems sure to stay, though 12 lb higher mark a major concern.

According To Pete (Malcolm Jefferson/Harry Haynes) has been in fine form of late, won valuable handicaps at Wetherby and Haydock prior to finishing a good second in Kelso minor event last time (Ballabriggs back in fourth). Needs more improvement now, however.

On His Own (Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh) confirmed himself a much-improved performer for new stable (formerly with Howard Johnson) when running out a wide-margin winner of Thyestes Chase at Gowran in late-January. Much higher in weights now, however, whilst his jumping hasn't always looked the most assured.

Always Right (John Wade/James Reveley) is a sure-footed jumper who's capable of smart form on his day, including when winning at Kelso on his reappearance. Has undergone a breathing operation since flopping on both starts since, so could well get involved if that's done the trick.

Cappa Bleu (Evan Williams/Paul Moloney) is the 2009 Cheltenham Foxhunter winner who's done well since returning from a lengthy absence this winter, winning at Haydock prior to decent placed efforts at Chepstow (behind Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross) and Ascot (arguably should have won). His strong-travelling style should stand him in good stead at Aintree and very much one for the shortlist.

Rare Bob (Dessie Hughes/Bryan Cooper) doesn't seem quite the force of old this term, despite more encouraging efforts of late, whilst his remote fifth in the Becher Chase back in December suggests he'll have stamina limitations over this trip for all he took pretty well to the fences.

Organisedconfusion (Arthur Moore/Nina Carberry) proved a revelation when upped markedly in trip to win the 2011 Irish National (with Sunnyhillboy back in third). Has kept his powder dry back over shorter (including over hurdles) since then, and remains very much unexposed over marathon trips.

Treacle (Tom Taaffe/Andrew Lynch) is lightly raced, though better than ever this winter and looked well worth trying over this sort of trip when runner-up to Cross Appeal in valuable handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas. Even better form when staying-on third in Irish Hennessy there last time and potentially well treated on that effort.

The Midnight Club (Willie Mullins/Paul Townend) didn't take to the course so well as expected when favourite for the 2011 renewal (eventually finished sixth after being hampered four out) and simply hasn't looked at the top of his game this time around, so others preferred.

Mon Mome (Venetia Williams/Aidan Coleman) was the 100/1 winner of the 2009 renewal, but faller at the fifth last twelve months later and it increasingly looks as if he needs everything to fall his way nowadays, so a well-run National could see him getting further back than ideal.

Arbor Supreme (Jonjo O'Neill/Mark Walsh) was a smart chaser in his prime for Willie Mullins, but has promised little in two runs over hurdles for current yard. He has failed to complete in the last two renewals of this race, so others are readily preferred even with the tongue tie in addition.

Sunnyhillboy (Jonjo O'Neill/Richie McLernon) showed plenty of stamina when third (after a troubled passage) in last year's Irish National and did so again to win the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month, rallying splendidly to beat Becauseicouldntsee. His jumping isn't the issue it once was and he cannot be ignored from a handicapping viewpoint.

Killyglen (Stuart Crawford/Robbie Power) was still close up when falling four out in last year's National but doesn't always see his races out thoroughly and that tempers enthusiasm here, despite a recent win at Down Royal.

Quiscover Fontaine (Willie Mullins/David Casey) does most of his racing over much shorter trips, though showed decent stamina reserves when fourth in last year's Irish National. Looks plenty high enough in the weights at present and his stable looks to have better options elsewhere.

Tharawaat (Gordon Elliott/Brian O'Connell) was back to his best when winning at Galway in October (2¾m) but has not shown a lot since then, and has stamina to prove here (never raced over further than 3m).

Becauseicouldntsee (Noel Glynn/Davy Condon) is a giant gelding who ticks plenty of boxes for a race such as this, given he's an out-and-out stayer with good recent form to his name (runner-up to Sunnyhillboy at Cheltenham last time). He does, however, have a few falls on his CV, including when crashing out at the second in the 2011 National.

State of Play (Evan Williams/Noel Fehily) is a likeable veteran who's made the frame in each of the last three Grand Nationals, his keeping-on fourth behind Ballabriggs last year coming after a twelve-month absence (which he's had again this time). Now twelve, and feeling is his chance has passed.

Swing Bill (David Pipe/Conor O'Farrell) was an honourable fifth in last year's Topham but didn't seem to enjoy the experience so much when tackling these fences for a second time back in December and relatively easy to oppose here.

Postmaster (Tim Vaughan/Dougie Costello) is a hold-up sort who can find little, but ended a long losing run at Bangor in August (25f) and also landed a 2½m hunter chase at Ludlow recently. He was a first fence faller in the Topham last year, has stamina to prove, and he doesn't look all that well treated at the weights.

Giles Cross (Victor Dartnall/Paddy Brennan) has proved admirably consistent in valuable long-distance handicap chases over the past fifteen months, finishing runner-up twice in the Welsh National as well as winning the Southern National at Fontwell and the Grand National Trial at Haydock this term. His front-running style often suits this race and definitely one to consider should the ground ride soft or heavy.

Midnight Haze (Kim Bailey/Sean Quinlan) is a sure-footed front runner who can boast a decent wins-to-runs ratio in recent seasons, but rather had his limitations exposed in the CheltenhamFestival cross-country chase last time and could also have stamina issues over this trip.

Vic Venturi (Dessie Hughes/Harry Skelton) has endured wretched luck in last two renewals of the Grand National (brought down early last time), but didn't look a natural over these fences even when winning the 2009 Becher and has something to prove after flopping in a hunter chase last time.

In Compliance (Dessie Hughes/Niall Madden) is a veteran who has some classy older form to his name, but finished well behind Killyglen at Down Royal last time and was soundly beaten in this race last year, so makes little appeal.

Viking Blond (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Brian Hughes) received a good ride when making all on chase debut at Chepstow (3m) in October. He showed similar form in his next two starts over that trip, but not in the same form the last twice and lack of experience is a concern.

Hello Bud (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Sam Twiston-Davies) was a game fifth in 2010 Grand National and won Becher back here later that year.Was running another big race prior to unseating at the Canal Turn in latest renewal of the Becher in December, but he's shaped as if old age is catching up with him on most other starts since then.

Neptune Equester (Brian Ellison/Felix de Giles) was suited by the stamina test faced when winning over 3½m at Haydock in November. Not in same form since, however, and relatively easy to oppose from 5 lb out of the weights.

Any Currency (Martin Keighley/RESERVE) is a thorough stayer who hasn't seen much action since his last success in November 2009. Has not been at his best this season and makes little appeal from 6 lb out of the handicap.

Our Island (Tim Vaughan/RESERVE) is a point/hurdles winner who stuck to his task when second in a handicap at Haydock in December. Set stiff tasks when below form in cheekpieces on his last 3 starts, though, and 7 lb out of the weights here.

Abbeybraney (George Bewley/RESERVE) has only been seen 5 times since winning a novice for Howard Johnson in December 2009, recording his best effort of season when third in Kelso conditions event latest, but is 9 lb out of the weights here.

Smoking Aces (Tom Taaffe/RESERVE) is a thorough stayer who responded well to blinkers when winning at Fairyhouse (29f) in December. Not in quite the same form since, and is 9 lb out of the handicap with cheekpieces replacing the blinkers.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Cappa Bleu
2. Black Apalachi
3. Neptune Collonges

Timeform View: Trainer Evan Williams and owner William Rucker have been placed in the last three Nationals with State of Play, and their perseverance could be rewarded this year, not by that one but by Cappa Bleu, who has plenty about him to think he'll take to this course and is among the best handicapped in the field, too. Black Apalachi will be ignored by the trends followers given that he's now thirteen, but few are as effective around here as he looks overpriced. Other honourable mentions go to Sunnyhillboy, Neptune Collonges and Organisedconfusion.
..........
Get the Timeform Jury's verdict on today's Saturday's TV races with Timeform TV Focus. Click HERE to find out more about this successful tipping service.

A look back over the in-play stories of previous Grand Nationals tells us to focus our attentions on laying the short ones, writes Jack Houghton....

Paul Jacobs presents and is joined by Timeform's Phil Turner to preview three races to be run at Aintree on Saturday.......

How do you solve a problem like the Grand National? By sharing it, says Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch, who answers some of the many problems posed by the participants in this year's big race......


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Sunday, April 1, 2012

Dubai World Cup: Timeform runner-by-runner guide

Dubai RSS / / 30 March 2012 / 1 Comments

Who will win the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan?

Who will win the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan?

"So You Think... can add another Group 1 win to his CV."

The world's richest race, the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday March 31, has attracted a star-studded fourteen-runner field. Timeform give you their assessment of the race, runner by runner....

Master of Hounds (Mike de Kock/Christophe Soumillon) was just denied in the UAE Derby last year for Aidan O'Brien, and made breakthrough at top level when making all to win Jebel Hatta earlier this month. Unlikely to get his own way here, however.

Eishin Flash (Hideaki Fujiwara/Christophe Lemaire) is a smart performer who won Japanese Derby back in 2010. Continued to run creditably at the top level since, runner-up in Group 1 Arima Kinen on Christmas Day. Could go well at a decent price.

Zazou (Waldemar Hickst/Olivier Peslier) is a smart German-trained runner who beat Rio de La Plata when winning Premio Roma in November. Ended year by finishing third in Hong Kong Cup and claimed scalp of Cirrus des Aigles on reappearance.

So You Think (Aidan O'Brien/Joseph O'Brien) was top class in Australia and won Tattersalls Gold Cup, Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes in first European campaign last year. Should have few problems on this surface and could prove tough to beat.

Smart Falcon (Ken Kozaki/Yutaka Take) is a high-class Japanese front-runner who has won 23 races in his career, including his last 9. Warmed up for this with easy success in listed race in January, and worthy of plenty of respect.

Planteur (Marco Botti/Ryan Moore) looked set for excellent campaign in 2011 when winning first 2 starts, including Prix Ganay. Didn't go on as expected after that, but claims if new yard can get him firing on all cylinders.

Royal Delta (William Mott/Jose Lezcano) was a dual Grade 1 winner in 2011, winning both the Alabama Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic. Not disgraced over inadequate trip on return last month, and should be spot on here.

Monterosso (Mahmood Al Zarooni/Mickael Barzalona) performed creditably in light campaign last year, winning Dubai City of Gold then finishing third in this race. Should be sharper for recent return when fourth to Capponi.

Silver Pond (Doug Watson/Johnny Murtagh) was formerly trained in France by Freddie Head where he won Group 2 at Chantilly last year. Encouraging start for this yard when runner-up to Capponi, but more needed to feature here.

Transcend (Takayuki Yasuda/Shinji Fujita) has a good strike rate and only narrowly denied in this race last year. Since won 2 of his 4 starts, although wasn't at his best when midfield in Group One February Stakes last time.

Capponi (Mahmood Al Zarooni/Ahmed Ajtebi) has continued to progress this year, winning his last 2 starts, latest when beating Silver Pond in Round 3 of Maktoum Challenge. Entitled to a crack at this level.

Prince Bishop (Saeed bin Suroor/Frankie Dettori) has done well since visored, and produced career-best when winning handicap here in January. Only third behind Capponi last time, and difficult to see him proving good enough to win this.

Mendip (Saeed bin Suroor/Silvestre de Sousa) is lightly-raced, but has a good strike rate and won Round 2 of Maktoum Challenge in February. Not in same form when behind Capponi last time, and this tough race in which to bounce back.

Game On Dude (Bob Baffert/Chantal Sutherland) is a consistent performer who won 3 times during 2011 before running best race when second in Breeders' Cup Classic. Tuned up for this by winning Grade 2 at Santa Anita last month.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. So You Think
2. Eishin Flash
3. Smart Falcon

Timeform View: The Japanese-trained Victoire Pisa won this last year and the Japanese are well represented again in a bid to follow-up. The pick of their trio may be Eishin Flash, whilst the prolific Smart Falcon also warrants plenty of respect. However, they may struggle to cope with So You Think, and this globe-trotting star can add another Group 1 win to his CV.

Visit timeform.com to download a race card for Dubai World Cup night.

Timeform Dubai Handicapper Stephen Molyneux brings you his SmartPlay selections for the $10 million Dubai World Cup card......

War, huh, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing apparently. Jamie Lynch takes Edwin Starr to task by suggesting that, rightly or wrongly, war sometimes has its place in framing sporting events, and the Dubai World Cup is one that could benefit from a little extra drama....

"The weather is crap". A direct quote from a Dubai resident as the welcome breeze takes the edge of a temperature soaring into the 30's. Things are also beginning to hot up in advance of the World Cup on Saturday as Timeform's Dubai handicapper, Stephen Molyneux, takes you through some more musings from his days in the desert....


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Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Champion Hurdle: Timeform runner-by-runner guide

Champion Hurdle RSS / / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Hurricane Fly defend his Champion Hurdle crown?

Can Hurricane Fly defend his Champion Hurdle crown?

"Last year's winner Hurricane Fly has cemented his position at the top of the 2m tree since then and can confirm himself the best since Istabraq with a follow up."

Can Hurricane Fly defend his Champion Hurdle crown on the opening day of Cheltenham 2012? Read on to get Timeform's thoughts on the big race on Tuesday...

Binocular won the 2010 Champion Hurdle, and back to that sort of form on last 2 starts after undergoing breathing operation. Smooth winner of Kingwell Hurdle last month, and looks the main threat to Hurricane Fly.

Brampour has been much improved this season, winning at Ascot then Greatwood Hurdle at this track a couple of weeks later. Third in Grade 2 here after and had excuses since, but hopes look pretty slim in this company.

Celestial Halo has been a fine servant to connections, landing the Triumph in 2008 as well as 4 Grade 2s. Only just touched off in 2009 renewal of this, but latest defeat to Binocular confirms he's just short of this level.

Hurricane Fly was unbeaten in 5 starts (all Grade 1s) last term, including in this contest, and showed himself as good as ever when making impressive return in Irish Champion in January. Hard to beat on that form.

Kalann quickly left his Flat form behind switched to hurdling, running out a ready winner of 4-y-o minor event here in October. Failed to really build on that since and firmly up against it.

Oscars Well won 2 Grade 1 novices last term and would surely have won the Neptune but for a late blunder. Better form in defeat this season, but put in his place by Hurricane Fly last time.

Overturn is a front runner who was seventh in 2011 Champion. Better than ever this term, completing hat-trick when beating Binocular in Fighting Fifth. Given a break and likely to give it his all again.

Rock On Ruby propelled himself into Champion Hurdle picture when running away with handicap at Newbury on return, and pushed Binocular hard when neck second in Christmas Hurdle. Definite place contender.

Zaidpour is unbeaten in 4 starts this season, showing himself effective from 2m to 3m. Last 3 wins gained at Grade 2 level and this step back up in class likely to prove a bridge too far.

Zarkandar took Triumph Hurdle win in unbeaten 2010/11 campaign, and returned from absence with impressive win in Betfair Hurdle last month. Capable of better still, but that is factored into his price.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Hurricane Fly
2. Binocular
3. Rock On Ruby

Timeform View: Last year's winner Hurricane Fly has cemented his position at the top of the 2m tree since then and can confirm himself the best since Istabraq with a follow up. An on-song Binocular would provide the stiffest resistance, with Rock On Ruby a solid each-way proposition.
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Connections of Binocular are expecting a big run from the 2010 winner, who was unable to defend his crown 12 months ago......

Willie Mullins is pleased to see the taps being turned on at Cheltenham ahead of Hurricane Fly's defence of the Champion Hurdle......

Timeform Radio have another podcast for you, with next week's Champion and World Hurdles under the microscope......


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Saturday, November 5, 2011

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf: Timeform runner-by-runner guide

USA RSS / Timeform / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Who will win this year's Filly & Mare Turf?

Who will win this year's Filly & Mare Turf?

"Stacelita, the class mare in the race, has the gears to get herself out of trouble if things get tactical and rates a good win bet."

Midday and Sarafina may well have fought out the finish if standing their ground but instead have another shot at the colts in the Turf on Saturday, and whilst that admittedly takes something away from the Filly & Mare Turf (22:50 GMT), there are still a number of Grade 1 winners set to line up...

Dubawi Heights should be familiar to race fans on both sides of the Atlantic. She finished third in the Lowther as a 2-y-o in Britain for Simon Callaghan and has done very well for the same trainer in the States this year, winning two Grade 1s including the Yellow Ribbon at Santa Anita last time, where she beat Cozi Rosie. Dubawi Heights was comfortably beaten by Stacelita in the Beverly D. at Arlington in between those wins, however, so chances are she's playing for a place again.

Stacelita was a high-class mare in France for Jean-Claude Rouget, winning a hat-trick of Group 1s in her 3-y-o campaign, and has already twice tasted success at the highest level since moving to the States earlier this year, racking up easy wins for Chad Brown in the Beverly D. at Arlington and the Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont. Stacelita is the class act in the field, has an excellent turn of foot which will stand her in good stead should things become tactical and is clearly the one to beat.

Harmonious progressed quickly in 2010, winning four races including the American Oaks at Hollywood and Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, but only tenth behind Shared Account in the Filly & Mare Turf. Not quite so good this year, for all she's been in the frame on each start, most recently when third to Dubawi Heights in the Yellow Ribbon Stakes at Santa Anita. Conditions will suit and will probably stay, but unlikely to prove up to the task.

Cambina landed a couple of wins in lowly company as a juvenile in Ireland for Tommy Stack and much improved in the States this year, dead-heating in the Grade 1 American Oaks at Hollywood Park and fifth to Dubawi Heights in the Yellow Ribbon at Santa Anita. Should stay the longer trip judged on pedigree, but plenty to find with the principals.

Nahrain gave Roger Varian his first ever Group 1 win as a trainer when taking the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp (beat reopposing Announce by a nose), taking her own record to four from four. Plenty of stamina on the dam's side of her pedigree, so step up in trip could well unlock further improvement, and very much one to consider, still completely unexposed.

Announce has proven consistent at home in France this year and won Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville in August, but far more exposed than Nahrain, who beat her in the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp on Arc day and probably playing for a place again at best, for all owner Khalid Abdulla has faith in her as replacement for Midday who goes for the Turf.

Aruna is an ex-French filly who now hails from the stable of Graham Motion, who caused an upset in the Filly & Mare Turf in 2010 when Shared Account beat Midday. Aruna is herself a Grade 1 winner, too, having taken the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland in October, but longer trip is an unknown (stays 9f) and more on her plate in this company.

Perfect Shirl was a three-time winner in 2010 but yet to score this year, producing best efforts when third in Grade 3 Matchmaker Stakes at Monmouth on fourth outing and when second in Grade 2 Canadian Stakes at Woodbine. Well held at 11f and looks up against it.

Shared Account was a shock Filly & Mare Turf winner at Churchill Downs in 2010, when defeating Midday in what was a messy renewal, but only fourth and sixth in two runs this year (four months apart) and it would be an even bigger surprise were she to double up.

Distorted Legacy has been much improved this year, winning allowance race and non-graded event at Belmont, and produced best effort when two lengths second to Stacelita in Flower Bowl Invitational on same course last time. Was a big price at Belmont last time, however, and no reason to think she can turn form around with Stacelita.

Misty For Me won the Irish 1000 Guineas in the spring and bounced back from failing to stay in the Oaks at Epsom when smashing Midday by six lengths in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh. Only been seen once since, when a disappointing third in the Matron at Leopardstown, but her best form gives her every chance and eleven furlongs at Churchill Downs should be within her compass. Could well give trainer Aidan O'Brien his first Filly & Mare Turf win.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Stacelita
2. Misty For Me
3. Dubawi Heights

Timeform Verdict: This has the potential to be muddling, much as it was when Shared Account caused an upset to beat Midday on the same track last year, but Stacelita, the class mare in the race, has the gears to get herself out of trouble if things get tactical and rates a good win bet. Ex-French Stacelita's biggest threat could come from the raiding European party, led by O'Brien's Misty For Me, while Dubawi Heights looks the most threatening of the rest.

Timeform Race Cards for the Breeders' Cup are now available! Get the best ratings and analysis for both days by clicking here to download!

The Timeform Radio team discuss the Breeders' Cup, set to take place this weekend at Churchill Downs......

Matt Carothers casts his eye over Breeders' Cup Friday and provides readers with expert insight and analysis for each and every race......

Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch is joined by TVG's Simon Bray to provide a perspective from each side of the Atlantic on topics about this weekend's Breeders' Cup....


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Sunday, October 2, 2011

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: Timeform Runner-by-Runner Guide

Longchamp Arc Meeting RSS / Timeform / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Longchamp Racecourse: Scene of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Longchamp Racecourse: Scene of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

"So You Think... has been kept to 10f this term but extra distance won't be a problem (finished third in last year's Melbourne Cup) and excellent chance of giving his trainer a second win in this race."

Timeform give their opinion on each of the runners lining up in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp....

Workforce became only the sixth horse to win both the Derby and the Arc in 2010 and showed with his excellent second to So You Think in the Eclipse that he's every bit as good this year as last. Beaten favourite in the King George for the second year running when runner-up to Nathaniel, veering left in the last 2f, though in truth it didn't really dent his reputation, particularly when thinking back to an even heavier defeat in Ascot's showpiece before his success in this last year. It would be no surprise to see him become the first horse to win back-to-back Arcs since Alleged in 1977/78.

St Nicholas Abbey was the leading European two year-old in 2009, when he won the Beresford and the RP Trophy. Had just the one start as a 3-y-o, when beaten favourite in the 2000 Guineas, but back in full swing this season, winning Chester's Ormonde Stakes and the Coronation Cup at Epsom (beating Midday by a length). His latest two outings have not panned out in his favour (small fields and a lack of pace) and better can be expected here, given that the race is likely to be run to suit. A risky proposition but one that may have slipped under the radar.

Silver Pond took a bit of time to confirm the promise shown on his seasonal reappearance in the Prix Exbury back in March, but on his first try at a mile and a half in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly he produced his best effort yet to beat Behkabad by a head (receiving 7 lb from the runner-up). Strictly on that evidence, he would probably struggle to beat horses of a similar calibre to Behkabad at level-weights, but he remains one to be positive about as he still looks as though his best is ahead of him.

Hiruno d'Amour is a versatile performer who's established as a smart colt in Japan and he made a highly respectable debut in Europe when a short-neck second to Sarafina in the Prix Foy, just touched off without his rider going for everything. Can be expected to come on for that run given it was his first in four months, though his tendency to hang left is a worry in a race of this magnitude and he's likely to prove vulnerable if there's not much pace on (Group 1 winner over 2m).

Nakayama Festa put up a career-best when a head second to Workforce in the Arc last year and has once again used the Prix Foy as a prep for the main event. Although finishing last of four this year (second to Duncan last year), he had been off since picking up an injury in the Japan Cup last November and was entitled to need the run. It turned out to be a rather encouraging return, sticking to his task and giving way only inside the final furlong, but he will do well to perform as admirably in the Arc this time around after a less than ideal build-up.

So You Think is a top-class ex-Australian performer and has shown a similar level of form since moving to Ballydoyle, winning four of his five starts this year, including Group 1s in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (beat Campanologist 4½ lengths at the Curragh), Coral-Eclipse at Sandown (beat Workforce by ½ length) in July and the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (beat Snow Fairy by half a length) in September. Has been kept to 10f this term but extra distance won't be a problem (finished third in last year's Melbourne Cup) and excellent chance of giving his trainer a second win in this race.

Sarafina brings a solid profile to the table having won six of her nine career starts, showing high-class form along the way and recording three wins at the highest level, including the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on her penultimate start. Also ran very well when finishing third to Workforce in this event last year, picking up strongly despite being badly checked in the false straight and likely to have given the winner plenty to think about otherwise. Made a winning return from a break in the Prix Foy over this course-and-distance last time and looks a leading contender on her home patch.

Snow Fairy is a hold-up performer with a good turn of foot who enjoyed a great 3-y-o campaign, winning four Group 1s, namely the Oaks at Epsom(beat subsequently-disqualified Meeznah by neck), Irish Oaks at the Curragh (by 8 lengths), Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup at Kyoto (by 4 lengths from Meisho Beluga) and Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin (stormed home final 1f to beat Irian a neck). Yet to win from three starts this year, but showed she's at least as good as ever when pushing So You Think all the way in the Irish Champion last time, so shouldn't be overlooked.

Treasure Beach has been much improved this season, winning the Chester Vase on his reappearance before finishing second to Pour Moi in the Epsom Derby (beaten a head). He then went on to win the Irish Derby and the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington (in a faster time than stable mate Cape Blanco won the Arlington Million). His one disappointment this year has been over course and distance in the Grand Prix de Paris, when fourth behind Meandre and Reliable Man, but, if putting that race aside, his smart form this year would give him much more of a chance than his likely "third-string" status would suggest.

Meandre failed to win in four attempts as a juvenile but has progressed markedly in his second season, completing a hat-trick when landing the Grand Prix de Paris over this course and distance in July. However, there was a sense that things fell his way that day, ridden patiently in a strongly-run race, and he failed to confirm the form when second behind Reliable Man in the Prix Niel last time.

Masked Marvel has proven most progressive this year, winning three times including when putting up one of the best St Leger performances of recent times (bettered only by Conduit in the last 10 years) when running out a commanding winner over Brown Panther and Sea Moon. Connections have supplemented him for this, as the ground is unsuitable for the stable's intended runner Nathaniel, and the weight allowance he receives from the older horses would give him a huge chance if reproducing his Leger form.

Reliable Man won his first three starts, including the Prix du Jockey Club less than two months into his career (came from rear to beat Bubble Chic by three quarters of a length). Lost his unbeaten record to Meandre in the Grand Prix de Paris but 12f had looked sure to suit eventually and he showed he hadn't given his true running that day by turning the tables pretty convincingly in the Prix Neil over this course and distance. Still relatively unexposed and has to come into the reckoning as long as the ground doesn't dry up too much.

Shareta has improved this season since contesting the Prix de Diane (won by Galikova) in June and progressed once more on her latest start when finishing third behind that same rival, with Testosterone splitting the pair. She has tasted success at listed and Group 3 level this season, but looks up against it in this company and stable have a more obvious contender in Sarafina.

Testosterone returned from a summer break with an improved effort when splitting Galikova and Shareta in the Prix Vermeille, having won at Group 2 and 3 level earlier in the season. Her effort behind Galikova suggested that she isn't up to that standard and looks out of her depth here even though she could have more improvement in her.

Danedream is the sole German representative, trained by Peter Schiergen. She has improved considerably as a 3-y-o, her best effort coming on her latest appearance at Baden-Baden when beating Night Magic by six lengths in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden. That performance showed she is among the best 3-y-o fillies in Europe and her connections were impressed enough to supplement her for this race. She is certainly an interesting addition, contributing a different aspect to the line-up, and there could be further improvement to come, although she will have to be at her best to triumph here.

Galikova is a half-sister to champion mare Goldikova. She has progressed steadily all year and carried that on with a ready success upped to 12f when winning her first Group 1 in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last time, shaping as if a more truly-run affair would have been in her favour. She's open to further improvement, but it takes a top-class 3-y-o filly to win an Arc and it remains to be seen whether Galikova is up to the task.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. So You Think
2. Sarafina
3. Workforce

Timeform Verdict: This looks a highly-competitive renewal of one of the most prestigious races in the world. So You Think has done little wrong since coming over from Australia, winning four times (including three Group 1s), and he looks the one to beat. Sarafina brings a solid profile to the race and was unlucky last year, while Workforce, who has been beaten on his latest two starts, finished much nearer in the King George than he did last season and should go close in his quest for back-to-back Arc wins.

Timeform Race Cards for Arc Sunday are available now at timeform.com

Isabel Mathew provides some helpful insights as she weighs up seven front runners in Sunday's big race at Longchamp......

You wait ages for a big Group 1 contest and then seven come along all at once. The menu for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe day could hardly be more tempting and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has been lapping up the Parisian sunshine as he anticipates the jewel in the crown of the European Flat season....

Timeform's Flat Editor Jamie Lynch brings you his unique take on Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe......


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